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Tough week for foreign exchange market: the Fed, the BoJ & BoELast week turned out to be not that difficult. For instance, the data on industrial production was better than expected, also the data on retail sales appeared better as well, but still not that good. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI)came out below forecasts, but the difference was minimal, and the dollar strengthened fairly well in the foreign exchange market on Friday. The dollar growth has been observed due to the Fed's possible future actions. This week the US CB is announcing the monetary policy decision. On the one hand, the weak data could convince the Fed to reduce the rate but on the other hand, Friday's data seems to have more influence in taking the decision. The Bank of Russia lowered the rate on Friday. Due to the economic situation in RF as well as the current decline in oil prices, we continue to recommend sales of the Russian ruble. The data on industrial production turned out to be lower than expected (5.0%, with a forecast of 5.4%). However, the weak data was offset by exceeding retail sales forecasts. The companies are concerned with the consequences of the trade war. Therefore, more than 500 companies and industry trade associations wrote to the White House urging Trump to remove levies on China and end the ongoing trade war. This week we are waiting for announcing the results of the FOMC meeting, BoJ and BoE decisions on monetary policy parameters, data on inflation statistics ( Eurozone, the UK, and Canada ) as well as data on retail sales from the UK and Canada. Our trading preferences are unchanged: we will look for points for selling the US dollar primarily against the Japanese yen, as well as the euro, selling oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying gold. We will look for points for buying GBPUSD with small stops.
Short
by Trade24Fx
The price of the NIKKEI is above the key resistanceThe price of the NIKKEI is above the key resistance formed by the two EMAs (20 and 200 periods) daily and by 38.2% of the Fibonacci retracement. With this weekly closing above 22070 points, it is very likely that the price goes directly to the target. The next is in the area about  22900 points. Coinciding with 23.6% of the Fibonacci retracement. This level will be very important from now to the next few weeks. In fact, if it is reached, it will be a watershed between a continuation of this short-term uptrend with the absolute maximum goals, or a rejection which will cause a retracement of over 1300 points. Basically, it seems that the first hypothesis is the most probable. The Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy unchanged (it confirmed the deposit rate at -0.1% and the Japanese government bond yield target of 10 years around zero) and has committed to keeping interest rates very low at least until the spring of 2020. The BoJ also announced its new inflation forecasts. Noting that the 2% target will not be reached before 2022, despite years of ultra-accommodating monetary policy. This will keep the Japanese index stable. It should maintain a lateral/bullish trend in the short and medium therm.
TVC:NI225Long
by BFCMInvest
The price of gbp/jpy broke the support zoneThe price of gbp/jpy broke the support zone. The one identified by the EMAs 20 and 200 periods and by 50% of the Fibonacci retracement, on a daily time frame. Violating the whole area between 145.60 and 145.00 and confirming the closing below it, the price will continue this downtrend. The next target that coincides with the first key static support is at around 142.80. Once up to this point, the sales on this exchange should continue up to the final target of up to 61.8% of the Fibonacci retracement set at 140.45. This technical scenario is supported by the fundamental one. With the "Brexit" situation still in development and far from a definitive conclusion, the pound is devaluing in the short term. This trend will continue at least until the end of the summer. This deadline granted from the EU to London to make a decision. On the other hand, although the Bank of Japan has declared that it is ready to implement an even more expansive monetary policy by stimulating the Japanese economy with further injections of money, it now seems intent on maintaining the line declared during the last meeting. Meanwhile, rumors are circulating on the markets. Japan has signed an agreement with China for the mutual purchase of ETFs. As part of an agreement called the "ETF Connectivity Agreement", Tokyo and Beijing would have agreed on the need to allow the fund managers of both countries to invest in the ETF market of their respective counterparts. This would be giving the yen some stability. It should continue to gain value against other majors in the short term. So, to conclude, we recommend a short entry with a target area in the 140.45 area; intermediate target i 142.7.
Short
by BFCMInvest
Bears holding the highs in USDJPYThe most recent break below 110.5 indicates that this sell-off towards the end of the Fiscal year is looking impulsive in nature. This is a result of combination of flows from Yen repatriation for the FY end and risk-off via Central Bank uncertainty, Brexit and Meuller (now cleared). Any pullbacks towards 110.2 and 110.5 should be considered corrective and countertrend offering great opportunities on the sell-side. The targets below for shorts come into play at 109.3. I am actively adding exposure on all pullbacks as mentioned. Best of luck for those joining.
Short
by ridethepig
GBPJPY same plan as beforeHere we are tracking a very similar move to before (see attached: "GBPJPY Shorts on Hourly Chart") on the hourly as bulls become exhausted and unwind their positions for the triple whammy votes this week. Brexit continues as the driver of Sterling for now, on the UK side we have more votes coming next week so eyeballing a test of the lows beforehand. For those following the updates on Japan you will know we have fiscal year end repatriation flows in play there so we have all the ingredients for a fast leg. Best of luck those positioned on the sell side.
Short
by ridethepig
2
Selling EUR against JPYAfter some positive news from Moody’s last Friday on Italy the headlines are starting to fade making this morning a great opportunity to start getting short EURUSD and EURJPY around current levels. The ECB introduced a risk premium on the EUR which is only going to increase as the EZ outlook softens. I like playing EUR against pockets of USD strength as we have the possibility for renewed pricing on Fed hikes in the picture and JPY via fiscal year-end repatriation flows. Best of luck to those trading Euro live this week
Short
by ridethepig
8
Very clear path for GBPJPY We have a very similar setup to that in GBPNZD (see attached: "Expanding Diagonal in GBPNZD" for more information on the technical side as we will not be covering that here). As expected the House of Commons rejecting the idea of a no-deal Brexit yesterday (although by default unless there are any changes we are heading for this outcome so it still remains in play). From the fundamental side, nothing has changed. As per today the UK is still set to lose market access with the block, meaning no withdrawal agreement and no transition period. This will push inflation through the roof, drowning consumers, meaning household spending will remain weak throughout the forecast horizon. Weak wage growth and less credit capacity do not leave the UK in a comfortable position regardless of how the media is trying to sell this story. In any event, the third and final chapter of the Brexit votes is commencing today. For this one we are tracking whether the HoC can agree on asking for an extension of Art. 50. From very good Westminister sources I can confirm PM May is seeking a two-month extension, however, even if the vote passes the EU are not optimistic with elections around the corner and are unlikely to play ball. On the Japanese side, the fiscal-year-end repatriation flows to JPY have begun. This is a seasonality flow occurring mid-late March every year as Japanese companies repatriate foreign assets ahead of March earnings. Best of luck!
Short
by ridethepig
USD/JPY: week10 updateHi Guys, this is an update of the post USD/JPY week10 linked in the related ideas below. View is unchanged: the pair remains squeezed between the two SMAs. In view of US dollar bearishness and Gold bullishness I would be inclined to be bearish on this pair but I have not made up my mind yet. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Don't forget to put a like if you appreciate the post and to follow me if you want to receive notifications on new and updated ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
by cozzamara
USD/JPY: Week10Hi Guys, the above to show the performance of USD/JPY since the beginning of the year divided in weeks. H1 chart (compressed at max) shows an uptrend supported by two SMAs. The slowest should provide a balance of the trend and should correspond to 50 line in the RSI. The longest should provide support. At the moment price is supported by the 450SMA with 150SMA coming down. If 150SMA resists and pushes, 450SMA is crossed and 110.762 is breached the pair may fall towards 110. On the other hand, if price manage to cross the 150SMA above 111.500 it may attack the 112 and with momentum building it may even think about 113. Be carefull if it forms a bull trap when crossing the 150SMA for the upside though. Anyway, it's only Tuesday and there is no need to rush any decisions. To watch also for moves on DXY and Gold which may impact USD/JPY. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Don't forget to put a like if you appreciate the post and to follow me if you want to receive notifications on new and updated ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
by cozzamara
EURJPY Likely To Fall Further! A SHORT trade SetupTRADE TYPE: SELL WHEN THE MARKET OPENS AT AROUND 124.800 LEVEL STOP LOSS: 126.750 TAKE PROFIT: 123.000 RR: 1:1 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS With the trendline and channel on daily charts broken convincingly, the cross is aiming to test the next crucial support that lies in the 123.000 level! Price has already given the confirmation and the short trade can be executed once the market opens on monday. There are other crucial technical analysis that are too long too explain behind this trade setup, all in all the analysis is based on weekly charts but the structure on the daily TF has given me enough confirmation to take this trade short FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS Well what can be said about the EUR! ECB on thursday surprised the markets by its more than expected dovish announcement which sent all the EUR pairs into high selling pressure. The EUR is sentimented to fall further in the coming days. Shall there be any updates i will provide them here. cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
USDJPY Very Bullish on Monthly ChartHere we can see the zoomed out macro map for the flows in usdjpy. If you are a believer in the bullish USD story and see this as an ABC corrective leg, after completing a multi decade 5 wave sequence. Timing wise we have the seasonality flows to Yen as we approach the end of the fiscal year. Although the name of the game is to park in dollar so these are expected to be short lived. Similar in nature to the temporary bounce we are seeing in Gold. I have also attached the Dollar chart "Long term uptrend is clear as day" ... everything is aligning for this leg in dollar across the board. The story ties in with the 1.05 target in EURUSD. Lets see how it plays out, best of luck to those on the dollar side.
Long
by ridethepig
1
BRLJPY ready to move higherHere we can see the end of a 5 wave pattern to the downside and the AB leg of the ABC correction complete. So what does this mean? Well we have still yet to put C in place, so simply we are targeting 35.75 for this corrective process. It's worth engaging in further topside exposure, especially if you are a believer of the bearish Yen story. Best of luck those who like to play EM, we are in for large moves this year on the EM FX board. Please remember to like and comment, thanks!
Long
by ridethepig
GBPJPY Shorts on Hourly ChartHere we are zooming in for those wanting to track the initial move in this large leg on a small time-frame. Those who follow the account here will know we recently uploaded a Daily chart on GBPJPY with shorts all the way to the bottom of the range. Here we are showcasing an initial impulse move down at resistance. For a more detailed breakdown on the macro and fundamentals please see our related ideas where Brexit has been explained in depth. Best of luck and feel free to open up the discussion here
Short
by ridethepig
4
USD/JPY: above 110.000Hi Guys, the pair crossed the SMA which technically provides a bearish bias. However please look at what happen on Jan 27 when it crossed the SMA. That week it didn't fall immediately on Monday. It found support before diving on Wednesday. Now timing is different. It's Wednseday and DXY has been weakening since the beginning of the week. Strategy: wait and see On Thursday US GDP data Q4 will be released which may strenghten USD if above expectations. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. CozzamaraDaZena is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
by CozzamaraDaZena
Dovish BoJ sparked a dip in the YenBy Andria Pichidi - February 19, 2019 USDJPY edged out a fresh high, at 110.77 , which is the loftiest level seen since Friday, in what has been directionally-limited trading in the forex and global equity markets so far today. The MSCI Asia-Pacific (ex-Japan) stock index is fractionally lower, although near the four-month highs seen last Wednesday. Market participants are waiting for clarity on the US-China trade situation, with hopes generally high that the two sides will reach a compromise in this week's round of discussions, which will commence today in Washington DC. The optimism is reflected by the 6.6% rise in China's Shanghai Composite equity index since the start of February. BoJ Governor Kuroda did his version of a dovish turn earlier, saying that if the Yen were to strengthen and was "having an impact on the economy and prices," and if it was considered necessary to achieve the price target, "we’ll consider easing policy." He said that this could be by cutting short- and long-term interest rates, and/or expanding asset buying. Given the undesirable effects long-term ZIRP has been having Kuroda was cautious, remarking that "we need to carefully balance the benefits and the costs of the step such as the impact on financial intermediation and market functioning." This sparked a dip in both the Yen and JGB yields, though the impact has been limited as this is pretty much consistent with ongoing policy, and was less noteworthy compared to the dovish turns at the ECB and, more specifically, the Fed. USDJPY recovered half of the losses seen on Thursday pull back , giving hopes for a move higher after last week's correction. Hence the move away from 50-week SMA ( 110.53 ) and northwards of 20- and 50-day SMA, with Parabolic SAR being positive for 30 trading days, and RSI rising above 50, turns outlook to a bullish one, with next Resistance above 111.00 . More precisely, Resistance is set at 110.10 , which coincides with Thursday's peak, 61.8 Fibonacci expansion and the daily upper Bollinger Band boundary. Immediate Support holds at 110.25 (last week's low), while in the medium term Support is set at 109.90 (20-day SMA). Further gains above 110.10 along with a move above 200-day SMA could retest 112.00 area (November's Support at 112.20 converted into Resistance). Come join us today at HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Long
by HotForex
NZD shorts against JPY longs in a rising-rate worldWe have a few very important announcements coming during the European session today... Here we are starting to become more selective with AUD and NZD, both against JPY should see further downside as the rising-rate environment remains intact. => The RBNZ disappointed markets earlier in the week sending yields higher across the curve. NZD caught a bid for these flows, however we see this knee jerk reaction to be over and an opportunity to load shorts. => Any possibility of hikes from RBNZ has been pushed back well into 2021 and given the length of time between now and then, we have plenty of room to continue playing the downside in NZD. On the technical side of things a test of the two support levels seems a done deal and for those looking to add AUDJPY shorts to the basket too we have attached the related idea with our key levels. Initial targets found at 74.2 with our second target 72.7 within reach. Please continue your support with a thumbs up or comment and thanks for helping us continue to grow further. Best of luck.
Short
by ridethepig
MAJOR update on USD/JPYMacroeconomic side The price in the last sessions is continuing to maintain this lateral / bullish trend without giving too many signs of inversion, supported by a recovering dollar. This week will be essential to understand the short-term trend that will follow both the dollar and the yen: in fact, tomorrow the Fed chairman will make a conference, from which investors expect him to keep his very short-term decision unchanged (do not force the market and the US economy with further monetary restrictions). On the other hand, on Thursday, the Japanese GDP data will be published, expected positive and clearly improved compared to previous ones: this should strengthen the Japanese currency against the other majors. The technical side Technically there is a very strong resistance area between 110.70 and 110.90: the main EMAs (daily, weekly and monthly time frames) pass in here and the 110.90 should not be violated on the upside due to the macro-economic factors just mentioned. If this happens it is because the short-term trend has become long and the target area will become the one between 113 and 115 Join us for further analysis on: Instagram : www.instagram.com Telegram: t.me Facebook Page: www.facebook.com Web: www.bfcminvest.com
Short
by BFCMInvest
USD/JPY: Look me in the eyes......this is what happens when you spend too much time on TradingView. Lol Watch this... Thank you for following and for sharing your ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. CozzamaraDaZena is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
by CozzamaraDaZena