GBPJPY Shorts on Hourly ChartHere we are zooming in for those wanting to track the initial move in this large leg on a small time-frame.
Those who follow the account here will know we recently uploaded a Daily chart on GBPJPY with shorts all the way to the bottom of the range. Here we are showcasing an initial impulse move down at resistance.
For a more detailed breakdown on the macro and fundamentals please see our related ideas where Brexit has been explained in depth.
Best of luck and feel free to open up the discussion here
Boj
USD/JPY: above 110.000Hi Guys,
the pair crossed the SMA which technically provides a bearish bias.
However please look at what happen on Jan 27 when it crossed the SMA. That week it didn't fall immediately on Monday. It found support before diving on Wednesday.
Now timing is different. It's Wednseday and DXY has been weakening since the beginning of the week.
Strategy: wait and see
On Thursday US GDP data Q4 will be released which may strenghten USD if above expectations.
Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas.
Disclaimer:
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. CozzamaraDaZena is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
Dovish BoJ sparked a dip in the YenBy Andria Pichidi - February 19, 2019
USDJPY edged out a fresh high, at 110.77 , which is the loftiest level seen since Friday, in what has been directionally-limited trading in the forex and global equity markets so far today.
The MSCI Asia-Pacific (ex-Japan) stock index is fractionally lower, although near the four-month highs seen last Wednesday. Market participants are waiting for clarity on the US-China trade situation, with hopes generally high that the two sides will reach a compromise in this week's round of discussions, which will commence today in Washington DC.
The optimism is reflected by the 6.6% rise in China's Shanghai Composite equity index since the start of February. BoJ Governor Kuroda did his version of a dovish turn earlier, saying that if the Yen were to strengthen and was "having an impact on the economy and prices," and if it was considered necessary to achieve the price target, "we’ll consider easing policy." He said that this could be by cutting short- and long-term interest rates, and/or expanding asset buying. Given the undesirable effects long-term ZIRP has been having Kuroda was cautious, remarking that "we need to carefully balance the benefits and the costs of the step such as the impact on financial intermediation and market functioning."
This sparked a dip in both the Yen and JGB yields, though the impact has been limited as this is pretty much consistent with ongoing policy, and was less noteworthy compared to the dovish turns at the ECB and, more specifically, the Fed.
USDJPY recovered half of the losses seen on Thursday pull back , giving hopes for a move higher after last week's correction. Hence the move away from 50-week SMA ( 110.53 ) and northwards of 20- and 50-day SMA, with Parabolic SAR being positive for 30 trading days, and RSI rising above 50, turns outlook to a bullish one, with next Resistance above 111.00 . More precisely, Resistance is set at 110.10 , which coincides with Thursday's peak, 61.8 Fibonacci expansion and the daily upper Bollinger Band boundary. Immediate Support holds at 110.25 (last week's low), while in the medium term Support is set at 109.90 (20-day SMA).
Further gains above 110.10 along with a move above 200-day SMA could retest 112.00 area (November's Support at 112.20 converted into Resistance).
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NZD shorts against JPY longs in a rising-rate worldWe have a few very important announcements coming during the European session today...
Here we are starting to become more selective with AUD and NZD, both against JPY should see further downside as the rising-rate environment remains intact.
=> The RBNZ disappointed markets earlier in the week sending yields higher across the curve. NZD caught a bid for these flows, however we see this knee jerk reaction to be over and an opportunity to load shorts.
=> Any possibility of hikes from RBNZ has been pushed back well into 2021 and given the length of time between now and then, we have plenty of room to continue playing the downside in NZD.
On the technical side of things a test of the two support levels seems a done deal and for those looking to add AUDJPY shorts to the basket too we have attached the related idea with our key levels. Initial targets found at 74.2 with our second target 72.7 within reach.
Please continue your support with a thumbs up or comment and thanks for helping us continue to grow further.
Best of luck.
MAJOR update on USD/JPYMacroeconomic side
The price in the last sessions is continuing to maintain this lateral / bullish trend without giving too many signs of inversion, supported by a recovering dollar. This week will be essential to understand the short-term trend that will follow both the dollar and the yen: in fact, tomorrow the Fed chairman will make a conference, from which investors expect him to keep his very short-term decision unchanged (do not force the market and the US economy with further monetary restrictions). On the other hand, on Thursday, the Japanese GDP data will be published, expected positive and clearly improved compared to previous ones: this should strengthen the Japanese currency against the other majors.
The technical side
Technically there is a very strong resistance area between 110.70 and 110.90: the main EMAs (daily, weekly and monthly time frames) pass in here and the 110.90 should not be violated on the upside due to the macro-economic factors just mentioned. If this happens it is because the short-term trend has become long and the target area will become the one between 113 and 115
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USD/JPY: Look me in the eyes......this is what happens when you spend too much time on TradingView. Lol
Watch this...
Thank you for following and for sharing your ideas.
Disclaimer:
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. CozzamaraDaZena is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
Japanese Yen vs NikkeiThank you for following and for sharing your ideas.
Disclaimer:
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. CozzamaraDaZena is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
USDJPY breaks the supportTarget: 111.40
Risk: 112.85
Technical reasons:
The USDJPY pair broke the ascending channel’s support line after witnessing three descending tops, targeting 111.40 level next.
The price consolidation below 112.85 keeps the expected bearish trend, while surpassing it will push the price to the ascending channel again.
USDJPY [Weekly] Bearish med/long termCurrent risk off envirnoment spured sell off on that pair.
Last week close below 112 added to bearish view ( notice: TL break, retest, rejection )
Attempt to rally above 112,50/80 might be the selling opportunity.
110,00/20 as first possible target, around 108 next and 105/104.
Weekly close above rising TL will put the idea on hold and weekly close above 116 cancel bearish view.
USDJPY - Retracement After Bull on BOJUSDJPY gained over 130 pips after BOJ signaled to continue easing.
The bullish wave has completed a significant wave of retracement after reaching 112.
It is highly probable that USDJPY will continue another wave of appreciation fundamentally where the Fed continues its effort to raise rate and BOJ continued to ease monetary policy.
The technical rebound and supported by a H4 rising trendline also proved that the price has more bullish potential.
BOJ Continues Easing, Yen May Weaken FurtherAs BOJ kept its monetary policy unchanged, the yen is set to weaken further.
The price has been holding steadily at 111 and supported by a daily rising trendline just before the release of BOJ monetary policy statement.
As the news is released, USDJPY came down at first, but quickly recovered its losses climbed to 111.43.
A head and shoulder formation was discovered at the same time, giving more technical support for further appreciation, should the price manages to close above the neckline and subsequently above 111.5.
The Eve of RiskOur Second Idea on Tradingview
=> Here we are smelling risk off in the coming sessions.
=>From a technical perspective we are eyeballing a move back towards the 61.8% from the bottom of the channel we have been trading since April.
=>Expecting investors to raise the bid on risk off assets as we have the triple CB combo this week with BOJ, FED and BOE in play.
=>We are choosing Gold as the perfect asset class to trade this as we expect some mild profit taking from Dollarbulls
=>Gold long @1227| TP1 1260 | TP2 1305 | STP LOSS 1208
=>In the background we also have EZ and US inflation numbers mid week, both expected inline providing further pull factors to Gold
=>Good Luck all
USDJPY- yen broke a key level
- Now testing a 4 Month Trendline.
- 4 Month Trendline has been tested twice in the past and bounced off, maybe bounce number 3?
- I will be happy to allocate long/short, off these levels.
Somethings of note:
-the BOJ uses JGB's Targeting in its monetary policy. My theory is that when you see out-sized moves in JGB's, its indicative of a change in monetary stance. Hence what affects currency affects bonds and vice versa.
- I also find the relationship of DXY and USDJPY interesting. This has been occurring since March. One would normally associate USDJPY weakness as you see DXY Strength.
USDJPY for possibility of it retesting With no notable economic data to be released later today, I’ll be looking at the USDJPY for possibility of it retesting the 105.80 and 105.30 support level. This is in addition to the current commentary coming from the BoJ regarding the actions to be taken to reach their target of 2% CPI.
USDJPY: Potential CD leg to 91 handleHow long can the BoJ maintain its zero yield curve targeting with the growing divergence between US rates, strong GDP numbers and Abe's strong arming of Japanese corporates to raise wages? Looking for the USDJPY to test 100 congestion zone in the medium term followed by the 91 handle over the longer term. Extrapolate the strength of the USDJPY to the DXY and consider the inflationary impact on US imports (notwithstanding Trump's trade wars) and of course equities. Note, this is not going to be one a straight line move to 91, so trade accordingly.
2018 Macro Outlook - CADJPY Bullish BiasPrice has broken above the trend structure after a correction since September 2017. We are holding onto a bullish bias for this pair, potentially targeting 94.60 area.
I will be following up and tracking this thread regularly throughout the year. Make sure you follow this idea to get notified whenever there is an update on this idea.
Have a great trading year ahead!