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USDJPY: Better to leave it alone until the 24thUSDJPY daily charts indicate we're temporarily in a downtrend, and the weekly chart suggests it's wise to wait for bearish momentum to slow down in this time scale, before attempting to go long. Weekly and monthly trends show an uptrend, according to the RgMov indicator, and have good potential, once the downside is exhausted. If we don't hit 109.536 by Feb 24th, we could assume the bears have lost steam, and buyers will be taking control once again. I'll update this chart with future developments. For now, better buy TLT, or some other bond proxy, perhaps even short $USDJPY, but it's simply safer to leave it be, and wait to buy at the bottom. Sometimes, doing nothing is the best thing to do... Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
by IvanLabrie
2
USDJPY: Inside daysThe market seems to be awaiting news, since we have two days in a row, contained by a previous day's true range. This has only happened 12 times since the top in 2015, so you can tell that the market awaits major news to decide on direction, or resume the pace it had. Price action until we break out of this range might be erratic, so don't caught up trying to navigate the murky intraday noise waters and focus on the big picture here. Just a heads up. Check the news calendar, and then trade. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
by IvanLabrie
9
DXY: Pullback gives a good buying opportunityDXY is in a long term uptrend, so, corrections give way to excellent buying opportunities. This way, we can profit from exploiting volatility, while following our long term vision and fundamental bias. There is a correction under way, which I assume can be similar to the previous ones. I think the move up will start soon, but it'll probably gain steam after FOMC is out of the way, not before. I'd reccomend buying into a position gradually, since now we made a strong move down, breaking into new weekly lows, so we'll need to use a wide stop loss (or calculating size based on risking 0.5-3% of the account, if stopped out 3 times the daily average true range value down from the initial entry). Monitor price action in the coming 8 days, it should be clear when it's about to turn up again, so be ready to add incrementally to the position. Let's see how it goes, good luck! Ivan Labrie.
TVC:DXYLong
by IvanLabrie
2
XAUUSD: Gold about to rallyWe have fulfilled my initial expected outcome (check related ideas) and broke below 'everyone's stop' like it has been customary in gold this year. I think we're in the prescence of a sideways/megaphone pattern style thing, where we have a false breakout before each turn. The arrows show the false breaks, and the green X's show the turns. I think we can expect to retest the election day range, or the Brexit day key level zone before going back down, so that's what I aim for. Risk here is a $26 to $80 dollar drop. The thing here is that we haven't managed to break above the long term downtrend mode, since we're back below it, and we have risk of a rate hike in December, so the rally that we get here, could be a pullback in a longer term downtrend. I'll be looking to add to my longs that I opened here (1186 entry) if we get progress and then sell, and sell short at the top, using longer term chart levels for my entry and stop. I've bought EURUSD at 1.0534, with stop at 1.0397 as well, since both are at potential spots for a bottom, after making a 'false break'. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
6
GBPJPY: Speculative long positionWe have an interesting setup here, but it's not for the faint of heart. Risk is big in the Pound pairs, so only risk 0.5% on the long here. The spread with USDJPY might close soon, so you might have sizeable upside in this pair. Invalidation is a move back under last week's open for this trade idea. Good luck, Ivan Labrie. ps: I'm still unsure of the GBPUSD pair, so I'm currently flat, although I'd reccomend caution trading it. Size trades small so you have reasonable risk. Look at the ATR indicator for clues.
Long
by IvanLabrie
USDJPY. Short, intermediate and long term projectionThe USDJPY pair is tracing a strong long term reversal in my opinion, and here we have an opportunity to join the trend with minimal risk. You can go long at market, using the long term stops on chart, close to 101.2, or, take a buy stop order at 104.703 (good for the day), speculating that Kuroda's speech will take care of triggering this daily uptrend, with stop at 103.789. Targets are on chart, good luck if you follow me on this trade. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
12
Clear resistance levels on the AUDJPYThis chart speaks for itself really. The AUDJPY is hovering just below its 200-day moving average (currently at 80.11) with a bearish trend line resistance at 80.70/80. Upcoming Japaneses inflation data may provide a catalyst for a more clear direction in prices, which could possibly help determine whether this pair is destined to fall once again or break free of its predominant downward trend. The underlying fundamentals (i.e. central bank policy) favor prices to remain under pressure, but there is a lot of uncertainty currently over the BoJ and its stance on adding to its QE package. Traders should, therefore, react more to Japanese inflation data than they did following the Australian CPI release earlier this week. As it stands, so long as the AUDJPY trades below 80.70, the risk/reward ratio for short strategies (swing trading) is attractive. Possible targets for such strategies would be 78 and 76, the latter requiring generalized pressures on the Aussie dollar in November. If prices break above 81 in the next couple of days, however, I would be inclined to believe that the market could rise back up to around 85/86. This would really require the yen to be sold off, however, as the Aussie has already risen against most of its counterparts recently.
by ABRAK75
1
LONG USDJPY - FED & BOJ MONPOL, RISK SENTIMENT & ELECTIONLONG USDJPY: 1. Slightly late posting this position but we got long at 104.5 earlier today. The rationale behind owning USD VS JPY is as follows. USD risks are bid 1) in the run up to the 2015 dec hike USD traded extremely bid with DXY breaking through 100, based on the last 2wks i expect USD to mirror 2015 and continue the bid tone we have seen both in 2015 and now. That said in the past few wks usdjpy has traded relatively mutely compared to the market thus imo has more alpha than other crosses and as another few 100pips before we can consider usdjpy stretched. 2) the usdjpy has a Dec hike to look forward to. Whilst i expect USDJPY to be faded as we saw following the last hike, i think these next 2 months we will trade to 109/11 as rate hike hopes push the pair into firmer resistance. 3) USD election risk is likely going to fade with the neutral choice of Hilary winning. Thus any Trump uncertainty weighing on the USD will be washed out which could be worth 50pips at least. JPY risks are to the soft side 1) BOJ monpol risks remain skewed somewhat to the dovish side since whilst inflation continues to trade firmly and consistently below 0 the BOJ are DEFINITELY unable to raise rates and are unlikely to consider tapering (the ECB has firm 0.4% inflation and even they may not consider a taper). Thus the risks are certainly to adding to easing, with the most hawkish outcome being neutrality. 2) JPY like the rest of the safe havens remain bid up some 20% in 2016 alone thus a correction lower some 5% isnt extreme and infact is fairly justified (thus a 111 target is arguably on the cards). This is especially true assuming the next big risk event (election) passes with the most neutral and odds on favourite candidate winning (hilary). Thus any risk premium priced into yen for this purpose will be faded and encourage the 5% correction i mention above. 3. JPY volatility remains at the lows of the yearly range thus a topside correction encouraged into election and FOMC events will possibly see yen trade with a softer bias. Risks to the view: 1. If Trump pulls off the tail end probability then USDJPY long imo will be invalid given i expect the USD to trade softer and yen to rally. I would expect USDJPY to trade to 100 in the event of Trump winning.
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
2
LONG USDJPY - FED & BOJ MONPOL, RISK SENTIMENT & ELECTIONLONG USDJPY: 1. Slightly late posting this position but we got long at 104.5 earlier today. The rationale behind owning USD VS JPY is as follows. USD risks are bid 1) in the run up to the 2015 dec hike USD traded extremely bid with DXY breaking through 100, based on the last 2wks i expect USD to mirror 2015 and continue the bid tone we have seen both in 2015 and now. That said in the past few wks usdjpy has traded relatively mutely compared to the market thus imo has more alpha than other crosses and as another few 100pips before we can consider usdjpy stretched. 2) the usdjpy has a Dec hike to look forward to. Whilst i expect USDJPY to be faded as we saw following the last hike, i think these next 2 months we will trade to 109/11 as rate hike hopes push the pair into firmer resistance. 3) USD election risk is likely going to fade with the neutral choice of Hilary winning. Thus any Trump uncertainty weighing on the USD will be washed out which could be worth 50pips at least. JPY risks are to the soft side 1) BOJ monpol risks remain skewed somewhat to the dovish side since whilst inflation continues to trade firmly and consistently below 0 the BOJ are DEFINITELY unable to raise rates and are unlikely to consider tapering (the ECB has firm 0.4% inflation and even they may not consider a taper). Thus the risks are certainly to adding to easing, with the most hawkish outcome being neutrality. 2) JPY like the rest of the safe havens remain bid up some 20% in 2016 alone thus a correction lower some 5% isnt extreme and infact is fairly justified (thus a 111 target is arguably on the cards). This is especially true assuming the next big risk event (election) passes with the most neutral and odds on favourite candidate winning (hilary). Thus any risk premium priced into yen for this purpose will be faded and encourage the 5% correction i mention above. 3. JPY volatility remains at the lows of the yearly range thus a topside correction encouraged into election and FOMC events will possibly see yen trade with a softer bias. Risks to the view: 1. If Trump pulls off the tail end probability then USDJPY long imo will be invalid given i expect the USD to trade softer and yen to rally. I would expect USDJPY to trade to 100 in the event of Trump winning.
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
1