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USDJPY: Weekly uptrend firedThis is an update to my previous publication. We now have full confirmation of a weekly uptrend aiming for 110.141 by December 23rd or sooner. If not long you can buy new daily lows, or dips to 102.8 after this week's close. Jumping in now, is not bad, but not optimal. This uptrend probably implies that the smart money is getting into new leveraged positions for the last quarter of the year, largely bullish for equities, so, we might return to Yen, Bonds and Gold being opposite to S&P500 again in this risk on rally. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
5
Gold Update - Buying DipsWe strongly believe that TA does not have weight on a non-technical market, we experienced this yesterday as Gold dropped over $50 and nobody knew why, despite what they say publicly :) However, we can't ignore TA completely, that wouldn't be smart. Our chart illustrates weekly and monthly fibo targeted support levels. If Gold breaks weekly 62.8% support level this week (specially if NFP is >150k ) price could extend to monthly support at 50% as indicated on the chart. The 1200 level is significant as multiple technical support levels confluence (see our Monthly published charts below). We note USDJPY PA to analyze the Gold market as we strongly believe the correlation is very strong this year. Disclaimer: Shorts from 1363, 1347 and 1315 being managed with TP1 at 1293 (closed 33%), TP2 at 1254s and finally TP3 at 1212s (subject to market conditions). Long added at 1293 stopped out at $4 loss. Long at 1283 and 1266s being maintained - no SL applied yet. Reduced risk applied to longs. Please trade at your own risk. Don't take me seriously. :))
FX:XAUUSD
by eskgroup
5
SHORT USDJPY - STRAT TRADE: 99.4% PROBABILITY OF REVERSALSHORT USDJPY: 1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) USDJPY has a cumulative probability of a =>7th day lower at 0.6%, hence there is a implied 99.4% chance of reversal on the daily. 2. Technically there is also some nice structure about the 103 level. Trading Strategy: 1. Sell USDJPY at market in 1xlot, and add 2x on each daily close higher from here. Start in VERY small lots to reduce risk and ensure you can add on adverse moves lower (it could be several days). TP is the next/ First daily close higher. Any questions please ask - also see performance attached of recent trades using the same stats
by QuantumLogicTrading
14
SHORT USDJPY - STRAT TRADE: 99.4% PROBABILITY OF REVERSALSHORT USDJPY: 1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) USDJPY has a cumulative probability of a =>7th day lower at 0.6%, hence there is a implied 99.4% chance of reversal on the daily. 2. Technically there is also some nice structure about the 103 level. Trading Strategy: 1. Sell USDJPY at market in 1xlot, and add 2x on each daily close higher from here. Start in VERY small lots to reduce risk and ensure you can add on adverse moves lower (it could be several days). TP is the next/ First daily close higher. Any questions please ask - also see performance attached of recent trades using the same stats
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
FED FOMC RATE DECISION HIGHLIGHTS - DXY/ USDJPY SHORTSAs expected the fed decided NOT to change the fed funds rate or discount rate. We could/ shoud see some USD flushing of fed funds for september to the downside I stick with my 99.5 to 100 for USDJPY shorts as attached. Attention now turns to Yellens speech in 30mins - deeper analysis to come then. FOMC Rate Decision: Fed Leaves Policy Rate Unchanged, Says Case For Rate Increase Has Strengthened Fed Sees Lower Rate Path in 2016, 2017, 2018 and Longer Run Fed Sees One Interest Rate Increase in 2016, Two in 2017, Three in 2018, 2019 D Three Fed Officials See No Rate Increase in 2016, Up From Zero in June Fed: Decided To Wait 'For The Time Being' For More Progress Toward Goals Fed Officials See Fed Funds Rate at a Median of 1.125% at End of 2017 Fed: Market-Based Inflation Compensation Measures Remain Low Just Four Fed Officials See More Than One Rate Increase in 2016 DJ News Fed: Expects Moderate Pace of Economic Growth, Labor Market To 'Strengthen Somewhat Further' Fed Officials See Fed Funds Rate at a Median of 0.625% at End of 2016 Fed: Near-Term Risks To Economic Outlook Appear Roughly Balanced Cleveland Fed's Mester, Kansas City Fed's George, Boston Fed's Rosengren Dissent On Fed Policy Action George, Mester, Rosengren Preferred To Raise Fed Funds Rate To 0.5% To 0.75% Fed Continues To Closely Monitor Global Economic, Financial Developments Fed Continues To Closely Monitor Inflation Indicators Fed: Economic Growth Has Picked Up From Modest Pace in First Half Fed: Market-Based Inflation Compensation Measures Remain Low Fed Officials See Fed Funds Rate at a Median of 1.125% at End of 2017 Fed: Survey-Based Inflation Expectations Measures 'Little Changed' Fed Officials See Fed Funds Rate at a Median of 1.875% at End of 2018 Fed Officials See Fed Funds Rate at a Median of 2.625% at End of 2019 Fed: Inflation Continued To Run Below 2% Target Fed Officials See Fed Funds Rate at a Median of 2.900% in Longer Run Fed Officials See Slightly Lower GDP in 2016, Unchanged in 2017, 2018 Fed: Inflation Expected To Rise To 2% Over Medium Term As Transitory Effects Fade Fed Median GDP Projections: 1.8% in 2016, 2.0% in 2017, 2018, 1.8% in 2019 Fed Officials See Unemployment Rate Higher in 2016, Unchanged in 2017, Lower in 2018 Fed: Labor Market Continued To Strengthen Fed Median Unemployment Projections: 4.8% in 2016, 4.6% in 2017, 4.5% in 2018, 4.6% in 2019 Fed: Job Gains Have Been Solid in Recent Months, Unemployment Rate Little Changed Fed: Household Spending Has Been Growing Strongly DJ News 2016.09.21 20:00:00 Fed Median Longer-Run Unemployment Projection: 4.8%, Unchanged From June Fed: Business Fixed Investment Remained Soft Fed Officials See Lower Inflation in 2016, Unchanged in 2017, 2018 Fed Median Inflation Projections: 1.3% in 2016, 1.9% in 2017, 2.0% in 2018, 2019 Fed Median Longer-Run Inflation Projection: 2.0%, Unchanged From June Fed Leaves Discount Rate Unchanged At 1.00% Fed Median Core Inflation Projections: 1.7% in 2016, 1.8% in 2017, 2.0% in 2018, 2.0% in 2019
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
3
EURJPY: Interesting triangle spottedWe have a good opportunity on the long side here, brewing behind the scenes. We are looking for bears to lose steam, and the pair to slow down, to go long on strength. This decrease of the ATR values shows momentum's waning, meaning that the market has been one sided for a while (in this case, the last leg of selling slowing down). We can follow the 'path of least resistance' which is indicated by RgMov, which in this case, gives us a bullish outlook as more favorable. Failure to hit 113.253 by the close of the 21st will confirm that the bears are losing steam, further validating this trade idea. We can either take a new daily high as long entry, risking a drop to the recent lowest low after today's close, or we can wait for the timer to expire and bears to fail reach the target to enter longs on strength. Keep an eye on the BOJ this week, the move out of this triangle will be quite sizeable. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
USDJPY - EDGY BOJ TURNS YEN TURBULENT; KURODA SPEECH *USDJPY: 1. Price action immediately following BOJ this september was more than erratic but at the same time showed some consistency for those of you who can remember back to Julys performance - we moved instantly lower on the decision to 101 flat, before ripping 180pips higher to 102.8 to then lose most of the bids and trade back to the 101 base. 2. The BOJ decision itself, imo, was less than clear compared to July though and almost warranted this kind of whipsaw behaviour - especially given the anticipation (or not so much) of the Fed later today which is likely to mingle with risk sentiment and dollar leg of USDJPY the like at some point. - The unclearness regarding whether the policy decision was net hawkish or dovish was given that there was no changes to the main policy tools (Depo, LSP, JGB, ETF), it would leave one thinking neutral-hawkish on expecttions - especially given a 5bps cut was the median BBG forecast. However, on the other hand, you had statements from BOJ including, "BOJ expanding its monetary base until it reaches its 2% inflation target" which is somewhat dovish given it puts never ending monthly JGB 80-100trn yen on the table for the next few years (unless the BOJ is delusional that less time is required). But at the same time this dovish statement was met by a bid from the BOJ to "increase yields for 10y JGB to 0%" and steepen the curve - which in itself is highly contradiction of ANY further expansion to the monetary base (given increases in money supply reduces rates). The BOJ knowing this then went on to cover saying "pace of purchases may fluctuate as to meet 0% target". Thus all in all the above, for me at least, left the overall decision uncertain at best. Given we are only 0.2% down it would be fair to say the outcome was infact neutral. Neutral BOJ and No hike Hawkish Fed was my prediction before (see attached) and i stand behind the 100 level being reached as USD demand is likely to be flushed at some level when the 10-20% priced into USD fed funds is flushed out. BOJ Decision: JAPAN BOJ RATE DECISION STAYS FLAT AT -0.1 % (FCAST -0.1 %) VS PREV -0.1 % BOJ DECIDES TO SET TARGET FOR LONG TERM INTEREST RATES JAPAN BOJ BASE MONEY TARGET STAYS FLAT AT 80 TLN JPY (FCAST 80.00 TLN JPY) VS PREV 80.00 TLN JPY BOJ: ADOPTS QQE WITH YIELD CURVE CONTROL BOJ: TO ABANDON MONETARY BASE TARGET BOJ SAYS NO OFFICIAL BASE MONEY TARGET, BUT MAINTAINS ANNUAL PACE OF JGB BUYING AT 80 TRLN YEN BOJ: TO KEEP BUYING JGBS SO BALANCE OF ITS HOLDINGS INCREASES AT ANNUAL PACE OF 80 TRLN YEN BOJ: INTRODUCES NEW MARKET OPS FOR YIELD CURVE CONTROL BOJ: TO BUY JGBS SO 10 YR YIELD HOVERS AROUND 0 PCT BOJ: PURCHASING YIELDS WILL BE SET PER AUCTION BY INDICATING THE SPREAD FROM THE BENCHMARK YIELD WHICH BOJ DETERMINES SEPARATELY BOJ: DEPENDING ON MARKET CONDITIONS MAY SET JGB PURCHASE SIZE PER AUCTION TO FIXED AMOUNT OR UNLIMITED AMOUNT BOJ: SCRAPS RANGE FOR DURATION OF JGBS THAT BOJ BUYS BOJ: BOJ TO CONTINUE EXPANDING MONETARY BASE UNTIL CPI EXCEEDS 2 PCT AND STAYS ABOVE TARGET IN STABLE MANNER BOJ: ADOPTS COMMITMENT TO LET INFLATION OVERSHOOT ABOVE 2 PCT BOJ: BOJ CAN CUT SHORT TERM POLICY RATE, TARGET LEVEL OF LONG TERM RATES IN FUTURE EASING BOJ: BOJ TO CONTINUE EXPANDING MONETARY BASE UNTIL CPI EXCEEDS 2 PCT AND STAYS ABOVE TARGET IN STABLE MANNER BOJ: BOJ MAY ACCELERATE EXPANSION OF MONETARY BASE AS FUTURE POLICY OPTION BOJ: PACE OF MONETARY BASE INCREASE MAY FLUCTUATE IN SHORT RUN UNDER MARKET OP THAT AIMS TO CONTROL YIELD CURVE BOJ: MAINTAINS COMMITMENT TO ACHIEVE 2 PCT INFLATION AT EARLIEST DATE POSSIBLE BOJ Kuroda:
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
1
USDJPY - EDGY BOJ TURNS YEN TURBULENT; KURODA SPEECHUSDJPY: 1. Price action immediately following BOJ this september was more than erratic but at the same time showed some consistency for those of you who can remember back to Julys performance - we moved instantly lower on the decision to 101 flat, before ripping 180pips higher to 102.8 to then lose most of the bids and trade back to the 101 base. 2. The BOJ decision itself, imo, was less than clear compared to July though and almost warranted this kind of whipsaw behaviour - especially given the anticipation (or not so much) of the Fed later today which is likely to mingle with risk sentiment and dollar leg of USDJPY the like at some point. - The unclearness regarding whether the policy decision was net hawkish or dovish was given that there was no changes to the main policy tools (Depo, LSP, JGB, ETF), it would leave one thinking neutral-hawkish on expecttions - especially given a 5bps cut was the median BBG forecast. However, on the other hand, you had statements from BOJ including, "BOJ expanding its monetary base until it reaches its 2% inflation target" which is somewhat dovish given it puts never ending monthly JGB 80-100trn yen on the table for the next few years (unless the BOJ is delusional that less time is required). But at the same time this dovish statement was met by a bid from the BOJ to "increase yields for 10y JGB to 0%" and steepen the curve - which in itself is highly contradiction of ANY further expansion to the monetary base (given increases in money supply reduces rates). The BOJ knowing this then went on to cover saying "pace of purchases may fluctuate as to meet 0% target". Thus all in all the above, for me at least, left the overall decision uncertain at best. Given we are only 0.2% down it would be fair to say the outcome was infact neutral. Neutral BOJ and No hike Hawkish Fed was my prediction before (see attached) and i stand behind the 100 level being reached as USD demand is likely to be flushed at some level when the 10-20% priced into USD fed funds is flushed out. BOJ Decision: JAPAN BOJ RATE DECISION STAYS FLAT AT -0.1 % (FCAST -0.1 %) VS PREV -0.1 % BOJ DECIDES TO SET TARGET FOR LONG TERM INTEREST RATES JAPAN BOJ BASE MONEY TARGET STAYS FLAT AT 80 TLN JPY (FCAST 80.00 TLN JPY) VS PREV 80.00 TLN JPY BOJ: ADOPTS QQE WITH YIELD CURVE CONTROL BOJ: TO ABANDON MONETARY BASE TARGET BOJ SAYS NO OFFICIAL BASE MONEY TARGET, BUT MAINTAINS ANNUAL PACE OF JGB BUYING AT 80 TRLN YEN BOJ: TO KEEP BUYING JGBS SO BALANCE OF ITS HOLDINGS INCREASES AT ANNUAL PACE OF 80 TRLN YEN BOJ: INTRODUCES NEW MARKET OPS FOR YIELD CURVE CONTROL BOJ: TO BUY JGBS SO 10 YR YIELD HOVERS AROUND 0 PCT BOJ: PURCHASING YIELDS WILL BE SET PER AUCTION BY INDICATING THE SPREAD FROM THE BENCHMARK YIELD WHICH BOJ DETERMINES SEPARATELY BOJ: DEPENDING ON MARKET CONDITIONS MAY SET JGB PURCHASE SIZE PER AUCTION TO FIXED AMOUNT OR UNLIMITED AMOUNT BOJ: SCRAPS RANGE FOR DURATION OF JGBS THAT BOJ BUYS BOJ: BOJ TO CONTINUE EXPANDING MONETARY BASE UNTIL CPI EXCEEDS 2 PCT AND STAYS ABOVE TARGET IN STABLE MANNER BOJ: ADOPTS COMMITMENT TO LET INFLATION OVERSHOOT ABOVE 2 PCT BOJ: BOJ CAN CUT SHORT TERM POLICY RATE, TARGET LEVEL OF LONG TERM RATES IN FUTURE EASING BOJ: BOJ TO CONTINUE EXPANDING MONETARY BASE UNTIL CPI EXCEEDS 2 PCT AND STAYS ABOVE TARGET IN STABLE MANNER BOJ: BOJ MAY ACCELERATE EXPANSION OF MONETARY BASE AS FUTURE POLICY OPTION BOJ: PACE OF MONETARY BASE INCREASE MAY FLUCTUATE IN SHORT RUN UNDER MARKET OP THAT AIMS TO CONTROL YIELD CURVE BOJ: MAINTAINS COMMITMENT TO ACHIEVE 2 PCT INFLATION AT EARLIEST DATE POSSIBLE BOJ Kuroda:
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
USDJPY Final Long Entry Before Invalidation! High R/R!This is a re-evaluation of the final corrective triangle structure. The reason why this is the LAST entry is because our stop can be comfortably placed beyond the invalidation level. A single pip below this level invalidates the count, and we have a huge risk to reward opportunity on which to capitalize. This is a risky position because the BOJ news is pending, so risk your capital intelligently. I will update with more updates as the tide rolls. Happy Trading All
Long
by glennmercer
1