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NIKKEI: UPDATEIn my previous idea I located the key levels on chart, and was biased towards a short. Recently, it started being obvious that the Yen was weakening, so I decided to go long GBPJPY. I still think the dollar will remain weak for the rest of the year, possibly until June 2016, nothing has changed, but the Nikkei is implying that it will rally asap. Tim West's recent publication clearly depicts how the stage was set up for a rally, so I'll limit myself to expand the analysis with a few more details of interest that are worth noting. I include the ichimoku indicator on chart, because it's a very highly regarded tool among japanese traders, and many pro traders as well. It's good to contrast our own analysis with other tools from time to time. The weekly time at mode downtrend target has been exceeded, and now, time has expired. This implies the Nikkei has a low probability of retesting the mode from where the downtrend launched, at the 20385 mark, in 9 weeks or less. The daily chart is giving confirmation of a bullish time at mode trend signal today, which aims for the top of the kumo resistance. Interestingly enough, the lagging line, which is part of the ichimoku suite, sits above price, 26 bars back from today. This implies that it's possible for price to cross the cloud resistance and meet with the mode above, or beyond. Good luck if going long, keep in mind rgmov is in a downtrend in the daily, so I'd still would look into fading the target hit, or the resistances above, or even short under the highest daily low after overbought spikes. If you want live updates and more information, make sure to follow me at collective2, where I provide signals for auto trading and via email for a monthly fee. I'm also providing access to a live trading chatroom free of charge for concordbay.com customers, contact me via skype for more details. Cheers, Ivan Labrie Time at Mode FX Analyst at Concord Bay dot com
FX:JPN225Long
by IvanLabrie
6
USDJPY: Big short in the horizonSimilarly to TLT, I expect a rally to emerge today, which if moving past the trigger level at 122.545 will lead to an advance into the 124.096 to 126.042 area. I'll attempt shorting the first target with a tight stop, and if stopped I'll wait to short it higher. It's unlikely to see the 2nd target hit, since the 1st one sits right below the 8 week downtrend mode from where the very sharp decline launched, making this an area of high probability for a reversal. Remember to follow me at collective2 for live trade updates and to receive my Monday, Wednesday and Friday newsletter with detailed intermarket analysis. Currently, I decided to charge $20 per month, until I reach 30 subs. Once that happens, I'll charge $40 per month. So, being within the first 30, you'd be a 'founding member' of the "Time at Mode FX" crew. I placed a link in my profile containing an archive of my forecasting hits in this site, do check it out. Good luck navigating these murky waters! Regards, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
6
CADJPY Bearish Probability | H&S PatternTechnical Analysis: A small Head and Shoulders Pattern is evident on the chart. A break of 91.600 exposes the first target at 90.700. 93.00 has of late proved to be quite the Resistance Level as the pair failed to achieve a daily close above this handle with two notable failed attempts on the 9th and 12th of October daily candles. It is important to note that this area of price rejection (~93.30) also happens to accommodate the 61.8 % Fibonacci Retracement Level (light blue on chart) drawn from the 97.00 high and 87.40 low. In addition, 92.60 flaunts the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level drawn from the 97.00 high and 87.40 low. This level of Fibonacci confluence , that occurs in an area of structural resistance that has been relatively well-respected, increases the probabilities of a move lower, given the right conditions . With no higher highs in place the pair is still in a downtrend, albeit ranging as it is sandwiched between the 93.00 Resistance and 91.600 Support as indicated in the chart. Therefore a break, close and price action/fundamental follow-through below 91.600 is what I'm timing and watching for. Stops at 92.00. If the Weekly Candle closes as a bearish one, a noteworthy Evening Star will be in place. This is usually a Bearish Indicator. Fundamental Analysis: OIL Prices heavily influence the Canadian Dollar . The guys over at CFDTrading tackle the recent devaluation here . It's a short YouTube video. Therefore recent OIL prices devaluation, Canada's seemingly recessive economy and risk aversion vibes (stronger JPY) are all factors that may contribute to a weaker CAD. As much as Canadian economic data has been improving, there are still inconsistencies with the pattern. Some have been misses and some have been 'good'. Key Risks: The Bank of Japan is relatively more dovish than the Bank of Canada, this difference could work in favor of the CAD. A rebound in OIL prices and/or Canadian Economic Data will see a correlative rise in the CAD.
Short
by JeffMzee
GBPJPY: Potential breakout trade / Time at Mode signalThe analysis of multiple timeframes in GBPJPY leads me to believe that we might see a bullish breakout emerge from this juncture. If we base on the relative strength readings, obtained from my ratio analysis, pairing gold vs each currency, we'd be biased towards a bullish trade setup here. Although rgmov doesn't signal a new 44 bar high in any timeframe, the monthly does have a recent uptrend, which turned into a lengthy sideways move, and price is emerging right from support, so this opportunity should be considered. Check out my previous Nikkei chart, and the gbp/xau, an jpy/xau ones, as well as Tim West's own analysis on the Nikkei for more information. The 3 targets on chart are potential reversal zones as well, the low volatility enviroment we're in makes me think we have a very big move coming! I take this trade as a hedge against my longer term shorts in usdjpy and my eurusd and usdchf longs. It's good to keep a balanced portfolio when opening and managing multiple positions, without being incoherent with our own analysis and methodology. I'll post uptades and send broadcasts with more information, related charts and associated add on trades to my followers at collective2. Check out my profile for details. Currently offering a 15 day free trial. Kind regards, Ivan Labrie Time at Mode FX
Long
by IvanLabrie
9
USDJPY: Neutral, with a bearish biasIn this chart I analyze the price action in USDJPY's weekly chart. It appears like we have formed a balanced distribution after the lowest low in the recent selloff. Despite this not-falling situation, rgmov continues to suggest the enviroment is overall bearish, so I'll look into fading exremes in lower timeframes, using CCI and Rgmov signals as confirmation. Pattern traders might find an abundance of bearish patterns with the PRZ near significant profile levels, like the high and low volume nodes. It's interesting to note that the 10 period moving averages of the highs and lows are bearish, and that the speed lines drawn using the 0.5 and 0.618 levels, and the highest and lowest price from the top as reference contain the bars in the advance as well. Hope you find this of use, regards, Ivan Labrie Time at Mode FX
by IvanLabrie
3
GBPJPY: This might be it...GBPJPY is offering a significantly interesting short opportunity, the telltale signs are there. If we look closely, we see that price has bounced from the biggest mode in the downtrend since 1991, and could never go back over it. In time at mode terms, we have a very clear weekly downtrend signal, confirmed by rgmov in the daily plotting a new 2 month low. This offers a very good short setup if we get a retracement entry. Be sure to take it! Entry would be anything above 191.91, with a stop loss slightly above the weekly mode at 193.468 (make it say 193.568) Good luck! Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
13
EURJPY: Potential position trade setting upWe have an interesting scenario here, with the possibility of Nikkei topping, and the Euro on the verge of being devaluated by the ECB's monetary policy. The setup offers a great risk/reward ratio, so I wouldn't hesitate to take it. Target is the AB=CD completion from the top to the current sideways range, but it will probably offer plenty of shorter term opportunities to scale in and book partial profits along the way. Good luck!
Short
by IvanLabrie
21
USDJPY and Nikkei: Potential reversalWe have a nice short opportunity in these charts. It's more evident in the case of USDJPY which offers a clear target and invalidation level. In the case of the Nikkei, it's at the level of a long term resistance, and showing a painful advance, not something I'd consider bullish in my view, and to make things worse, the highest low has been taken out by a down bar. We can enter short positions with confidence, keeping a reasonable stop, based on 3 ATR(11) in the case of the Nikkei, and slightly above my purple invalidation level in the case of USDJPY. Target would be the horizontal line below initially, where I'd suggest covering half of the position and moving the stop loss to break even in case it continues to fall.
Short
by IvanLabrie
32
Nikkei: UpdateCorrection started, as expected. We now have a bearish target in sight: 19184 by April 27th. This level and date will be a potential retracement area, or reversal, depending on how price action evolves. Considering the scale of the uptrend, I don't think this correction will end there, but we'll see. Better expand as we move forward. I am short GBPJPY, and monitoring SPX, EURJPY, AUDJPY and USDJPY for important clues about this large development. Will post updates here.
FX:JPN225Short
by IvanLabrie
14
USDJPY: UpdateSimilarly to GBPJPY, USDJPY seems to have topped after moving past the vix spike 75% retrace support level. On the daily chart we can observe bearish rgmov signals and on the weekly we can see that price has gone under 123, and failed to produce new highs after testing a quarterly range expansion bar's 50% level. It seems like this is the start of a strong bear market in this pair, so I'll be looking to go short on a retracement. Invalidation/stop is a retrace past the 61.8 level of the first wave down, which I think will be over the weekly mode. (I'm not positive is wave 1 down is finished, probably soon). Again, going short here once we get the aforementioned retracment, is a very significant opportunity, which I don't intend in missing. Good luck, and brace yourselves...wild ride coming. Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
31
FX CHART OF THE DAY: MEAN REVERTION UPWARDS PROBABLE USDJPYUSDJPY reentered 1st standard deviation from weekly (120-h) mean after a sharp drop earlier this week In my previous chart I also mentioned that USDJPY held long term levels (see related) Price is now likely to tag the weekly mean, as it moves into usual lateral range USDJPY is also supported by BOJ, continuing its extensive monetary stimulus Traders can take long positions close to the lower 1st standard deviation (118.70) targeting the mean (121.00) - with stop below recent lows (118.20)
Long
by Killy_Mel
1
Abeconomics Continues to Fail – EURJPY ImplicationsThe proof is in the pudding, well it is in the globalized failing of quantitative easing. Abeconomics is no different. Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will continue to feel pressure as his "three arrows" economic policy fails to push consistent economic expansion. Japan's economy shrank 1.6 percent on an annualized basis with falling exports and contracting consumer spending to blame. The calls for additional stimulus can be heard loud and clear, but the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will further risk market fragmentation if additional easing is lumped into the already giant program. According to the continuous contract of Japanese yen futures, Japan's currency has declined over 33 percent since 2011. This has not garnered the growth Wall Street expected it to outside of asset prices. As the BoJ erodes the purchasing power of the yen, import prices are increasing and it is stifling consumer spending. Tax increases are almost a no-go for the same reason. Since Abe was elected in 2012, Japan has only been able to grow by two percent. That's only a few tenths lower that the U.S. during it's quasi-monetary policy, now in its seventh year. Near-term outlook for EURJPY: The EURJPY has been rejected from resistance at 138.79 twice before its current retracement lower. Price action is hinging on support of 137.75, and a close below will signal further downside. Dynamic resistance can be found at 137.55 and 13.30, or the 50 and 72-EMA respectively. Price action support won't be seen until 136.93, which corresponds to the near-term uptrend line. A challenge of 136 is probable. If traders look to take the pair higher, a break of 138.79 could cause a momentum push higher after challenging the descending trend line. This could push the pair up to 139.90. In the longer-term: However, the BoJ could begin to talk the yen lower whether due to poor economic data or the fact that China's decision to devalue the yuan has implications throughout the region. A weaker yuan could force the Japanese central bank to weaken the yen further to try and gain an additional competitive advantage. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) will look to shake the yuan's tether to the U.S. dollar, and future devaluations are in the cards. The BoJ could go tit-for-currency-war-tat. Please follow me on Twitter @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
by CommoditiesTrader
2
Chart of The Day: USDJPY (7/22/15)The dollar-yen has been able to recover a sizable portion of yesterday’s ensanguine price action, following the dollar’s rejection from key technical resistance. Support for USDJPY remains clear with the Federal Reserve’s promise to hike rates, supposedly, sometime this year. With the Fed keeping traders guessing, the dollar remains in an upward trend as the potential for monetary tightening stokes demand. There also is the utter commodity smack down that is flashing signals of globalized deflation. Although, this underlying macro theme has been present for a while now. Gold is undergoing the largest rout is nearly 20 years, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell back below $50 per barrel. The 4H chart for USDJPY shows strong follow through after breaking through a descending wedge (shown by the major descending resistance trend line and descending support). However, price action is beginning to chop as the pair snags 124 yen per dollar once again. The intraday chart suggests that dollar-yen will likely grind higher through the ascending channel. Nevertheless, traders should be weary. The ADX, or trend strength indicator, is showing that the current trend strength is easing a bit. If USDJPY fails to close above 124.14, the pair could retest price support at 123.75; and this would also cause a retest of channel support just slightly lower. A close above near-term resistance, USDJPY would have upside resistance targets of 124.50 and 124.70. If the pair broke down, ultimately closing below channel support, support will be sought at 123.47 (coincides with the 72 EMA) and 123.18. Note: The one thing that can upend the dollar is ongoing softness in U.S. economic data that will derail the presumption of a Fed funds rate hike. The geopolitical and global macro climate will likely make yen attractive longer-term, loosing over 60 percent against the dollar since 2012. Feel free to follow me @lemieux_26 Original Post: teachingcurrencytrading.com
by CommoditiesTrader
2
GBPJPY: Long for now but watch it around September 28thTime at mode weekly analysis of the advance since the low in 2012. Price has already tested once the most frequent price since 1991, and fell instantly, but now rebounded and is heading up again. There is an active monthly uptrend, but the price target has already been exceeded. It would seem as if this is a topping formation, and even if temporary, the decline that will unfold if this validates a terminal wedge, will be very sharp and at least headed to 171.067 instantly. I'm long GBPUSD, and GBPNZD, but going long here might pay off, keeping in mind we might be able to short it soon. I'll update the chart with my entry, for now, you can try going long at 188.6145 with a stop at 186.463 and no TP. Cheers, Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
5
Looking At Ashraf Laidi's 40-Month CycleYesterday, Ashraf Laidi put out an interesting post on the USDJPY and a 40-month cycle. From April 1995 to August 1998, the pair rose just over 85 percent. In brief, in the mid-90s, the US were raising interest rates (who does that anymore? Psh), which made the dollar stronger following the recession of 1990. The Japanese yen was devalued, too, as their asset bubble grew bigger. The Japanese saw this as the cause of the "lost decade," while it could also have been blow back from the Plaza Accord in 1985. Nevertheless, the pair ultimately crashed 31 percent from it's 40-month cycle high. Following the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997, the Federal Reserve began lowering rates in 1998, briefly increased the Fed funds rate before rapidly lowering rates into the 2000 bubble bust and recession. (Which I believe will happen next). Fast forward to the current 40-month cycle, spanning February 2012 and June 2015. The pair has been able to gain a respectable 65 percent, and there is no reason why one would not BFTD; but, is the pair's fate remain the same as it were in the mid-1990s? Analysts take of a policy devergence, but really it's come to a rhetoric divergence. The Fed has yet to tighten monetary policy, and even if it does, Fed officials have opined that it would still be "accommodating" and largely based on market reaction. We very well could see a 25-50 bps increase in the Fed funds rate over the course of several months or a year, but that is when the true economic rot will fester to the surface; and the Fed will undoubtedly reverse course. The BoJ has admitted, no matter how many times Kuroda tries to revert course, that there are diminishing returns in regards to a weak yen. Quasi-monetary policy can only take economic growth to a certain point before fiscal policy takes the reigns, and we have not seen that from either country. Both central banks have embarked on massive QE programs; yet nobody wonders why in the same period the US is undergoing its slowest recovery from a recession, while Japan has had three recessions since the financial crisis. During the 40-month expansion, Japan has had three quarters of GDP growth matched with three of economic contraction. Central banks don't see to want to believe they are responsible for asset bubble, yet they are always the root cause.
by CommoditiesTrader
Dollar On Shaky GroundDollar bulls may be few and far between, as a potential rate hike has now become a "buy the anticipation, sell the rumor" play. Even the most hardcore bulls like Marc Chandler has taken a step back to rethink the dollar. After making a series of lower highs and lower lows, the dollar could very well test the lows near 93; while a series of resistance levels could snag any upside potential. Last night, a few BoJ officials wanted to move the markets with their words. For some unknown reason, BoJ Governor Kuroda blurted out that the yen was "very weak" as to lead the market to believing it was too weak. This is interesting on a few fronts: One, a weaker yen was modus operandi numero uno. It was not "very weak" when it was down 25, 30 or 35 percent, but that 40 percent mark is the sweet spot. Two, this comes at a very interesting point, following the G7 meetings. The market expects the Fed to increase rates solely based on non-farm payrolls and nothing else because, frankly, the data out of the US is borderline, if not outright, recessionary. The Fed will never hike rates into a stronger dollar. As I said many of times, the Fed will work its way into the currency war by taking down the dollar. But much like their gold charade, the Fed has someone else do their dirty work. The dollar is typically inverse of the yen, and by increasing the yen the dollar is almost guaranteed to fall by default. A falling dollar - in theory - supports the Fed's inflation projections. It also gives the Fed more breathing room to throw around the idea of a rate hike. Please visit my linked idea on the dollar. It is trading very much between S/R, while maintaining the downward trajectory. Still projecting the DXY with an 80-handle by mid-summer.
INDEX:DXY
by CommoditiesTrader
USDJPY: Top spottedSimple setup, initiate a short when the support is breached. We have a very strong decline after completing what looks like an expanding ending diagonal triangle in the 4h/daily charts. If price moves below the support level outlined in the chart, it will accelerate down, probably moving 430+ pips to the downside. As a bonus, crude oil seems to be moving up, while Nikkei falls, effectively boosting this trade, correlation wise. Will update with my entry and scale ins. Good luck, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
16