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EURJPY: BOJ fueled short pt. 2We have interesting news releases coming out tonight, and thoughout tomorrow's session. The technical chart shows an uptrend that is showing signs of exhaustion after correcting the strong decline from the December high from March 16 onwards. The advance was halted when price reached an area of weekly low volume resistance, where the market was extremely one sided. These areas can reject price and stop the bulls' advance very reliably. Now the market remains motionless after a strong selloff, which confirmed an hourly downtrend signal, while the 4h chart shows a volume buildup on the lows, increasing selling pressure after the sharp leg down completion started a sideways correction. I expect to see a strong move coming out of this juncture, fueled by the news releases. 23:00 US USD FOMC Member Williams speech 1 FRIDAY, MAY 22 02:00 CN CNY CB Leading Economic Index (Apr) 1 0.2 n/a JP JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement 3 03:00 JP JPY BoJ Press Conference 3 06:00 DE EUR Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY) (Q1) 2 1.1% 06:00 DE EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a (QoQ) (Q1) 3 0.3% 0.3% 06:00 DE EUR Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY) (Q1) 2 1.1% 06:45 FR EUR Business Climate (May) 1 101 101 08:00 DE EUR IFO - Expectations (May) 2 103.1 103.5 08:00 DE EUR IFO - Current Assessment (May) 2 113.6 113.9 08:00 DE EUR IFO - Business Climate (May) 2 108.3 108.6 08:00 IT EUR Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM) (Mar) 1 0.4% 08:00 IT EUR Industrial Orders s.a (MoM) (Mar) 1 0.8% 08:00 IT EUR Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY) (Mar) 1 -0.9% 08:00 IT EUR Industrial Orders n.s.a (YoY) (Mar) 1 2% 08:00 EMU EUR ECB President Draghi's Speech 3 09:00 IT EUR Retail Sales n.s.a (YoY) (Mar) 1 0.1% 09:00 IT EUR Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (Mar) 1 0.2% -0.2% n/a GR EUR Current Account (YoY) (Mar) 1 €-0.929B 12:30 US USD Consumer Price Index Core s.a (Apr) 1 240.79 12:30 US USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Apr) 2 0.1% 0.2% 12:30 US USD Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) (Apr) 1 236.71 236.12 12:30 US USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (Apr) 2 0.2% 0.2% 12:30 US USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Apr) 3 -0.1% -0.1% 12:30 US USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (Apr) 3 1.7% 1.8% 13:30 JP JPY Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Speech 3 13:30 EMU EUR ECB President Draghi's Speech 3 19:00 AR ARS Trade Balance (MoM) (Apr) 1 Previous ideas:
Short
by IvanLabrie
26
Nikkei: Bearish confluenceThere's a potential 8 bar downtrend about to confirm here. If we see a swift move down from this level, we can expect the Nikkei to travel down, and fast. Technically, you can enter shorts now, with a tight stop, but the 8 bar signal isn't confirmed yet. Target on chart, for now an estimation, but possible. Wait for confirmation if trading it. Might offer good clues for the yen traders too. Thanks to Tim West for bringing it back to my attention yesterday. Good luck, Ivan.
FX:JPN225Short
by IvanLabrie
14
GBPJPY: Extended fifth wave advance and time at mode short setupWe can observe a clear five wave advance from the lows, with wave 5 being the largest, almost reaching 1.618 of the distance from point 0 to wave 3 high, which is the typical distance wave 5 travels. These extended fifth waves often produce a very sharp and steep retracement that swiftly moves price down to wave 5's second wave, or even wave 4 of the whole advance. Rgmov is showing clear divergence, which is a strong bearish signal, while we also observe a time at mode uptrend target expired, and one more larger timeframe target about to expire at the open on Sunday. I'll place a short fine tuning the entry from the 1h chart on Sunday. Good luck! Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
7
USDJPY: price at the daily mode - bar by bar analysisUSDJPY offers an attractive short trade, as long as it stays under the daily mode level at 119.635. I'm looking to short under the previous hourly low for the time being, with a very tight stop to maximize returns. We can place a reverse position above the resistance line, in case it reverses and continues to range. It's a good way to hedge against unexpected volatility. Will update with an entry. Update: Daily roadmap: If this level doesn't hold now, I suspect we might see some bullish continuation, exploring the upper end of the range. Said and done...Now, waiting to figure out what to do. Either buy a correction, or sell OS.
Short
by IvanLabrie
18
CADJPY: UpdateSeems like this pair will offer a perfect short opportunity anytime now. As depicted in the chart, we can see that price reached a critical resistance level after completing an AB=CD pattern from the low to the sideways correction start and end. I'll post if I find a good entry opportunity with good risk/reward ratio asap. If aggressive, you can short now under the low and target the horizontal red dashed line for taking partial profits, but I prefer to wait for a cleaner entry, fine tuning from the 4h and 1h charts. Keep in mind that Gov. Poloz is speaking tomorrow, in 8hs from now, so the market might wait for that event to increase momentum and turn one directional. Good luck! Ivan. Update: Seems like the perfect short entry is near: Taking a small position with a tight stop once time expires.
Short
by IvanLabrie
20
GBPJPY update: targetsAn addendum to my previous 'Waiting for the perfect short' chart. This chart describes the different projection techniques that I used to determine targets and potential retracement zones in this pair. I'm short from 177.569, with a break even stop and will scale in every chance I get. This corrections will be easily foreseeable using time at mode in lower timeframes, and I'll update with them in due time. I expect to hold this trade open until the weekly signal expires at least.
Short
by IvanLabrie
29
The Big Bubble - Correlation S&P500 vs Treasury 30y2007-2012: Convergence between S&P500 trend and yield on Treasury 30y USA: - Downhill stocks leads to a reduction in yields on the bond market . The flow of money coming out of the US stocks and goes to US bonds for the "safe haven" - RISK OFF. - Rise in share prices on stocks leading the market yield bonds to rise due to the vendite.Flow of money out of the US bond market and goes on US stocks - RISK ON. START THE BUBBLE: The first divergence for Fed QE & BoJ: A rising index corresponds to a fall in yields = excess liquidity in the market - Bubble begins to swell and then be absorbed THE BIG BUBBLE: The divergence between performance of the stocks and lower yields on the bond market is the highest ever. The bubble is always more swollen and the two lines more and more divergent. A Fed rate hike (and therefore yield) approaches the two lines (seen in early 2015) but if this were not enough the bubble may deflate and bring down the stocks..fly to normality?! BE CAREFUL
FX:SPX500Short
by guado77
GBPJPY: Waiting for the perfect shortAs the title describes, I'll publish a suggested short entry once my setup confirms. For the time being observe the price action and how the selling is outweighing the buying on each swing. This is inherently bearish, and to make things worse for the bulls, Tim West's proprietary indicator RgMov is plotting new lows and a strong downtrend on the daily chart, ahead of price which is currently ranging. The weekly chart shows intense coiling, which will eventually lead to an explosive move to the down side. I'll update the chart with entry, exit and stop loss values once it confirms. Cheers, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
32
Gold Looks Promising Longer-Term(Originally posted yesterday with appropriate charts) Gold takes a breather, while negative data continues to pour in. Gold’s inability to close above $1,300 is a mild hit for bulls, but prices will likely consolidate prior to the next leg higher. Prices declined to $1,280 per toz., just above the descending trend line, now support. The likely scenario is that gold will reenter the ascending channel and grind higher. Prices will look to regain $1,295, while a close below $1,273 will cause prices to push lower to $1,259 per toz. The longer-term, monthly chart does look promising, however. The price action in January has caused an overwhelming bullish monthly candle that trumps the previous two. Currently, price action is hung up around September’s close of $1,285 per toz, while price action resistance is found at $1,303. Gold has been able to recover from testing a longer-term ascending support trend line, but prices are still stuck within a descending channel created when the bull market correction first took place in 2013. If prices can close above $1,303 then near-term resistance would be seen at $1,353; but, the next monthly target is found at $1,391. There is accumulation of gold futures, which picked up since gold first bottomed at $1,130. Gold was overbought in regards to the near-term chart, and the easing off of $1,300 will correct that. The RSI is well from overbought, and it is ticking upward – a positive sign of more gains to come. The +/- DMI is also looking promising. The negative price indicator (- DMI) has remained on top since the correction was first initiated, but it has recently given up ground. The + DMI is pushing higher, and a bullish convergence on the monthly chart could prove positive for that push beyond $1,353. Please see full, original post here bullion.directory
COMEX:GC1!
by CommoditiesTrader
11
Hi-Prop Reversal @ 93.661 | $NZD $JPY #RBNZ #BOJ #elliottwaveFriends, As you may recall, a recent predictive analysis/forecasting was released for this same $NZDJPY pair, pertaining to a higher timeframe (4-hour - See link below). Fundamental analysis remains intact here regarding the $NZD. PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL: Looking at the internal activity of the aforementioned 4-Hour chart, I applied the predictive/forecasting model to define a high-probable level of reversal. That level is currently defined as: - TG-Hi = 93.661 - 23 DEC 2014. If and once this level controls price, one shuold shift back to the higher timeframe (4-hour chart0, which remains the controlling frame for this pair at the moment, FIBONACCI RELEVANCE: A Fibonacci matrix is overlaid here, but lends no clear alignment with any forecast level of support. Instead, the structural level defined at 91.611 should offer a temporary support IF and once price adopts a bearish tack. ELLIOTT WAVE RELEVANCE: The dominant price action remains that of a complex internal zig-zags, one at a higher-degree (in purple) defined by a pending w-x-y-xx-(z) and a lesser-degree 1-2-3-4-(5) impulse, both of which hold a high-probability of corroborating with the predictive/forecasting model's target at 93.611. This apical level would possibly complete a over-throw at Point-e, satisfying a bearish Ending Diagonal requirement. OVERALL: The original chart of interest rests at the 4-hour level. However, this 1-hour timefarme offers a chance to calibrate a reversal level in support of the predictive/forecasting analysis effected in the H4 level, which sees a dominant bearish control in price. INVALIDATION: The analysis should be considered invalid IF and once price commits to a level higher than Point-W = 93.968. David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster -----
Short
by 4xForecaster
12
Late Entry: $NZD vs. $JPY: Predictive Analysis/Forecast #forexTraders, Sorry for this late entry. Analysis originates from early December - Please, ignore TG-1 hit to keep it honest. Here is what I posted as a retrospective commentary on the "Predictive Analysis?Forecasting" chatroom today - I hope this makes things right by you: =============================== * * * 10 DEC 2014 * * * - H4:I thought I saved this chart as a preliminary study on December 02nd, 2014, when I built the chart. However, I cannot locate the chart in TradingView. Please, ignore the dates on the chart, as it may give the impression that I defined the targets after the fact. My apologies on that. Still, the analysis/forecasting is genuine and original.Analysis should have included a comment on NZD expected decline based on bearish dairy news and sovereign central bank action towards keeping or decreasing rates (very bearish for NZD) versus recent analysis on the and $ES revealing a probable reversal - It hit target since then and rolled quite drastically. The NET effect on should be a cantilevered force to the downside on the pair. David Alcindor ================================ (Source: www.tradingview.com ) In any case, the primary target was easily identifiable by its relation to Fibonacci's 1.414 and 1.618 extensions following completion of 5th wave. Price has since reversed to the projection of a lower bullish trendline born out of Point-4 and the next higher low point. For fundamental reasons stated above, the market is likely to maintain bearish pressure at these levels. On technical grounds, I would look for the failure of 91.810 as an early indication of further softening of bullish ground, thus opening up to the following bearish targets: 1 - TG-1 = 90.796 - 02 DEC 2014 (done already, but likely to impose a R/S effect on price action) 2 - TG-2 = 80.517 - 02 DEC 2014 3 - TG-Lo - 87.662 - 02 DEC 2014 and 4 - TG-x - 84.787 - 02 DEC 2014 Numerical targets carry a higher prop value, in contrast to nominal targets. However, numerical targets only impose shallow Fibonacci retracement, whereas nominal targets are high-prob reversal 9i.e.: minimum of 0.618+) David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster -----
Short
by 4xForecaster
14
Bear & Bull CaseDollar-yen is on an amazing ride, fueled by the destructive policies set forth by the Bank of Japan. Nevertheless, the run-up since Oct. 31 has seen its share of pullbacks; and, if price action closes below the wedge ascending support, the pair will likely test minor support levels at 117.75 and 117. However, it would be constructive for dollar-yen to pullback at test the 23.6% retracement level from the Halloween uptrend in order to test lower support levels. Once lower supports are tested, USDJPY could easily push through resistance just over 119. In the more bullish sense, wedge support could hold on a stronger dollar. Trading into the apex of the wedge could uncoil price action to 120.
by CommoditiesTrader
1
Gold Hits Key Resistance, Trades Low on Equity HighsGold has played out well on a technical basis. My previous analysis was rather spot on, as price action was leaning towards support at $1,133 from $1,170. Price found support and moved higher to resistance level one of $1,179 before profit taking today. Price action should remain within the descending channel, while a close below it will likely send gold quickly to $1,000. See this week's analysis here: tinyurl.com Please see previous analysis here: tinyurl.com
COMEX:GC1!
by CommoditiesTrader
SHORT USD/JPY. YEN PAIRS MAY CRASH STRONGLY. HERE'S WHY1) SP500 on ALL TIME HIGHS, MEGAPHONE pattern, GLOBAL RISK OFF 2) Investors confidence extremely BULLISH 3) YEN INDEX is technically EXTREMELY OVERBOUGHT, ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATION BOLLINGER BANDS on daily basis 4) USD is EXTREMELY OVERBOUGHT aswell as US growth has been EXAGGERATED. Wage growth is WEAK, and INFLATION EXPECTATIONS are really WEAK, so FED won't raise rates until 2016 or later against market expectations of June-September 2015. When market adjusts to this new reallity, USD will crash heavily. 5) Non-commercial longs for DOLLAR INDEX at IMM/Chicago Futures Markets are at multiyear highs. Market is EXTREMELY LONG USD, which implies huge asymmetrical risks for USD. Any BETTER than exp data will barely push USD up, but any WEAKER than exp data will damage severely bullish USD trend. 6) China data is WORSENING and WORSENING everday, trade balance weakens, inflation weakens, it won't take much time till market aknowledges that global growth is really SCREWED (+OIL on multiyear lows, indication of low growth) and sooner than later this will spread PANIC amongst market participants causing global RISK OFF. This is why in my honest opinion, there is a lot of RISK/REWARD on shorting specially USD/JPY and ris appetite driven pair AUD/JPY. Tip: Don't wait to market crash to get into this trade. Do it now, when close to all time highs on SP500/Nasdaq, and synthethic YEN INDEX, where decision for exiting shorts is easy.
Short
by seb
3
Is A Rally Realizable? Market Gemetries Offer An Insight | $JPYFriends, The $USDJPY posted a series of triangular geometries whose Fibonacci relationship remains significant (see DAILY chart). Just as importantly, a finaer granular analysis of internal geometries would also suggest that added upside remains probable as of this market close (10 OCT 2014): Following is a cut/paste discussion held from a recent $USDJPY posting, where I highlight internal market geometries, most of them expressed in terms of Mr. Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Waves pattern - Here is the content: ========================== Source: (...) Looks like we are dealing with a COR (M15/M60) within a COR (M240/DAILY) within a COR (WEEKLY), wherein a series of internal triangles/WW are boxed within one another. Here are the three timeframes in which these geometries have occurred: 1 - WEEKLY VIEW: - A Wolfe Wave hit 109.xx target and came to a 5-prime position. Yet, price is now resting on pattern's 1-3-5 Line, which may suggest a potential support. Less likely to occur here would be a rare 5-second (5") event: 2 - DAILY VIEW (same as weekly pattern): - Note here that a large WW already met its 5-prime requirement for a reversal. This chart alone speak against any significant rallying potential, although the current price at market closure rested on a significant 1-3-5 Line support: 3 - 4-HOUR VIEW: - Here, there is a definite geometric conflict worth pondering: a -- Price rests at 1-3-5 Line of a larger WW (seen above in DAILY and WEEKLY views) b -- An internal WW (BLUE) reached its own 5-prime, indicating a probable rallying event c -- A larger WW (PINK) also reached its own 5-prime position, reinforcing a similar rallying heralding: 4 - 60-MIN. VIEW: - In this chart, we are looking at the internal WW (BLUE) illustrated in the 4-Hour chart above. Here, the technical detail go a bit further, as we are seeing a RSI sitting on its own supporting trendline, within its own triangle. OVERALL: While price has been pushed to a significant bearish level, both the geometries and technical indicators are calling for a pullback. While this remains only a probability event, it its quite interesting to see how a lot of this internal-within-internal geometries are supporting a net reactive rally probability. Sunday's open might possibly offer a directional flavor for the remainder of the week. Cheers, David Alcindor ========================== OVERALL: As you may recall, this chart () was looking at a potential upside, which has since been reached. Therefore, we are currently at a significant cross-road where bulls and bears are battling with crosses, arrows and and triangle shields in hands. For the conflicting technical reasons above, I have chosen to turn TradingView's market direction tag to "Neutral" Cheers, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA ---------- Twitter: @4xForecaster ----------
by 4xForecaster
33
$JPY Hit Forecast TG @ 107.509; Eyes TG-Hi @ 109.786 | #forexFriends, As discussed over the recently days, price was preparing a rally given a parameter - Lower values threatened to signal a trend reversal, however, Wolfe Waves Pattern stole the show here. In the earlier analysis, there were concerns about a possible down-trend reversal had price maintained its course. Yesterday, I mentioned: "I personally do NOT like to see Point-5 neglected by wave count. Wave count is odd here, so beware of possible DEEPER pull-back. Levels given are structural analysis." (Source: "Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Room, TradingView.com - 16 SEP 2014: www.tradingview.com) INDEED, WOLFE WAVE DELIVERS: As suspected, price met the predefined Point-5 and reversed from there, affording the Wolfe Wave pattern trader to be given no other directional indication but up, especially as none of the candles that completed WW at Point-5 ever closed below that 1-3-5 Line - From this WW Point-5 validation, the WW trader had no other prospect but up. OUTLOOK - EXPECT TG-Hi = 109.786: Outlook remains intact at this point, with a loftier TG-Hi, defined at 109.786 five days ago (12 SEP 2014). The model is giving this as a qualitative (i.e. "Hi" or "Lo") target, or "Qual-Target" in contrast to a quantitative (i.e.: TG-1, TG-2, TG-3, ... TG-n), or "Quant-Target". As indicated several times before, Quant-Targets have reversible powers, being able to repulse price back to greater depths than the expected 0.382, 0.500 or 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels. While a definition of these levels will require added analysis (If and once price gets to 109.786), the current predictive/forecasting model remains bullish and supportive of the target it had defined back on 12 SEP 2014. OVERALL: Wolfe Wave completed and buoyed price to higher highs. The remainder of the rally is expected to be fueled via other geometries than the WW. Look for Elliott Wave expanded flats, running flats or other dynamic motives. However, once 109.786 level is reached, prospects for higher levels are likely to meet a significant bearish entrenchment at that defined level. Cheers, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA ----------------- Twitter: @4xForecaster -----------------
Long
by 4xForecaster
4