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XAUUSD: Toward a little correction upside before breaking badThere is no surprise in the trend of GOLD. For those who follow closely my analysis, there isn't yet an environment where GOLD may have a perspective of growth. Since FED and ECB as well as BoJ have lowered there interest rate, there is not yet a room to see a growing GOLD. From time to time, when the market is exaggerating the move, there may be an upside correction as it is for the time being. But on the medium term, and until ECB FED BoJ BoE increase there interest rate, or in a case of a serious inflation risk, GOLD may continue its path towards 1180 and even lower. On a short term basis, there may be a little correction on the upside, but this is just to balance the oversold situation
FX:XAUUSD
by Pashabxl
2
$JPY Sees Reversal @ 96.710 Before 152.073 via #elliottwave FlatFriends, Several months ago (March 04th, 2014), this $JPY was sitting at 102.2 when the predictiive/forecasting model released two target that eventually got hit - Replay the price action here: . Today, I would like to make a case for a similar lofty, long-term call with an intermediate unwinding to the downside first, as to provide price with the necessary technical springboard before its ascension to a potential historical high. For now, the downside target is purely Fibonacci-based, seeking a 38.2% retracement relative to the recent upswing. Playing out this approximate scenario, the predictive/forecasting model was able to define a lofty target as well. But first, let's talk about the technical reasons behind the moves, before we define the targets per se: TECHNICAL RATIONALE - Using Weekly Chart (Link to Weekly Chart: ) 1 - Price has rallied sustainably until now. In fact, a simple Elliott Wave analysis should easily demonstrate that recent ascension was built on the back of a FIRST WAVE EXTENSION, now arriving at a consolidation pattern, knows to the Elliotician as an Ending Triangle. 2 - In the more general view of the chart, one can also appreciate that price has approached historical price clusters to its left of the MONTHLY price field, which define prior support turned resistance as of now. In order to define that level, one may turn to Fibonacci's lowest acceptable 38.2% as far as building a geometric pattern fro which to propulse future price action. 3 - A proprietary pattern ("Janus Pattern") sees a support as low as 88.989 - While this prop pattern cannot be shared, I will simply announce it here as a way to established the LOWEST possible retracement in that WEKLY chart - Link provided above. 4 - Now, looking at the last and loftiest target, we will consider that this Weekly chart is in the process of defining an ELLIOTT WAVE's Bearish Flat, whose skeletal anatomy demands a 3-3-5 structure, to define Waves A, B and C, respectively. As we just discussed about a retracement to a significant low, one may now assume that this forecast low would become a basis for a rise paced in a 5-wave fashion to define the final Point-C of this flat. See Monthly flat to appreciate the relative positions of Points A and C, each born out of zig-zag waves as per EWP rules, where A represents an upwards correction of 3-wave structure, B a 3-wave ipsi-directional to major trend, and C an expected 5-wave structure. TARGET DEFINED: All rationale above yielded the following targets, written in the order of expected price action development: 1 - TG-Hi = 109.786 - 12 SEP 2014 2 - TG-Lo = 88.989 - JANUS PATTERN - 12 SEP 2014 and 3 - TGx = 152.073 - 12 SEP 2014 OVERALL: Note that SPX and $USDJPY are well correlated, and that this analysis in the most immediate term reflects a similar upturn of e-Mini S&P500 ES, just posted today - See that analysis here: - www.tradingview.com As I post this, please allow me the time to also post other pertinent timeframes to put the entire analysis in its proper context. Thank you. David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA -------------------- Twitter: @4xForecaster --------------------
by 4xForecaster
36
USDJPY: Range trading continuesWith FED's current policy and without any change in the interest rate from FED or BoJ, we are in a range trade where would buy at 101.2 and you sell around 103. Unless BoJ announces a change of policy and until FEd's increased its interest rate, we may be stuck in the range trade. However please bare in mind that when FEd will increase its interest rate, the equilibrium may very much change. Keep in mind that BoJ is also about to announce for the end of the year its inflation target which is about 2% Therefore the timing of the announcement concerning interest rate increase of BoJ and FEd in very much important. This may put an end to range trade which now is an easy money game ;-)
by Pashabxl
USDJPY: Initial signal for an upside move is presentUSDJPY is on the move. Altough the pair didn't cross 101.8 in a sustainable way, it is still above 101.5 which is our benchmark. At the present time, the pair is at an oversold level, i.e correction is imminent. If the correction level remain around 101.5-101.3, USDJPY may jump on the upside. Based on Ichimoku, we have 2 out of 4 positives signal for an upside. Tenkan-Kijun twist occured. There is no Kumo Twist YET. However, the Lagging span did a very well job, penetrating the price and the cloud. Tenkan-Kijun twist happend outside the kumo cloud which menas that the upside will be full of momentum.
by Pashabxl
Bearish Potential ... Watchful Waiting | $AUD $JPY #RBA #BOJTraders, Potential reversal has emerged - albeit quite speculative - on the back of an expanding triangle near-completion at Point-5, as well as a prop-pattern potential ("Great White"). -------------------------- TECH-NOTE: The Case For A Higher Point-5: 1 - Note that such triangles can often post an overlap of Point-5 across its 1-3 line, so further rallying is not excluded. 2 - Point-5 might point higher on the basis of an incomplete a-b-c wave pattern -------------------------- I would seek reversal confirmation signals based on your own methodology first and foremost. However, I thought it worse posting. Predictive Model remains BULLISH at this point, hence the "speculative" qualifier on this one. If and once the predictive model comes into alignment with above speculative plan, then I release a series of target with better definitions - Again: IF and ONCE. OVERALL: - Pattern play is BEARISH - Predictive Model is BULLISH - NET consideration is NEUTRAL = Favors bearish downturn, pending confirmation Cheers, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
by 4xForecaster
10
USDJPY: Key targets 102.6 and 103.5 remain intact.USDJPY's trading plan is still valid. My benchmark is 101.5 and the key support level is 101.325. Indicators show that we are at an oversold level because of FEd's Early announcement concerning the increase of the interest rate. However, USD is the strong currency on the USDJPY pair. The black forcast shows the expected curve and trend of USDJPY. Please disregard the timescale. The target could be achieved quicker or slower but I did draw it by hand without taking into consideration the timescale.
Long
by Pashabxl
USDJPY: Keeping the 102.6 and 103.5 targetUSDJPY is almost at its lowest level but the pair is in a falling wedge pattern. FEd decided not to increase its interest rate before 1Q15 therefore, the expected rise of USD against JPY has been a little bit delayed. however, USD is the string currency against JPY and there is no delay in the tappering program. I.E there will be less money in the market as far as the amount is concerned but there will still be cheap money in the market. Coming back to my trading plan, the headline goal remain 102.6 and 103.5. We are at an oversold level at the present, and both indicator show that we are on the eve of an uptrend again. Of course, one has to watch carefully 101.2 because bellow that level we may very well fall into 100.8 and even further bellow. But 101.5 is a solid support and resistance. If the pair raises over 101.3 to 101.5 and above, we can safely keep the target. At the present moment we are still in the safe side of the story.
Long
by Pashabxl
USDJPY: As usual short time short long time longWe do have 2 datas in hand. 1-FED will not review its interest rate on the upside before 1Q15. 2-BoJ is planning to reach it's inflation Target. Japan will release important figure this week that may affect the pair. therefore one should be very caution before entering the market. Having said that, on a long term basis, BoJ and FED are planning to increase their interest rate and USD will win against Yen. But on a short term basis, if Japanese retail sales figure as well as household expenses and National Core CPI are within the expectation or even better, then USD may loose ground against JPY on a short terme basis.
by Pashabxl
USDJPYSince there is no change in FED's policy, ie no review or postponing of the QE end date, in other word, FEd is keeping the tapering schedule, interest rate will not rise one to a sudden, at least not before 1Q15, we can expect 101.5 to remain an important support level and 103.5 an important resistance level. If FEd increase its interest rate, we may se a move above 103.5. If BoJ fulfill its 2% inflation target, we may see a move bellow 101.5. In the mean time, the channel is between 101.5 and 103.5 . you can see my studies 11 days ago. Nothing has changed.
Long
by Pashabxl
Bearish Signal & Targets | $EUR $JPY ##ECB #BOJ #Forex $USDFriends, This pair is quite difficult to grasp from a fundamental perspective, as both $EUR and $JPY are expected to under-perform. Yet, there could potentially be a trade opp here, using my prop predictive/forecasting model FUNDAMENTAL DATA: First, $EUR's recent negative deposit rate combined with ECB's option of turning to large-scale asset purchases are two fundamental drives that would guarantee bears dominance in the medium and long range. Second, $JPY is expected to remain under pressure, as #BoJ's QE remains the dominant feature. Japanese investors would probably add further bearish pressure on the #Yen as they consider better returns from foreign bonds. Institutional consensus is thus bearish, with an expectation that $USDJPY might possibly reach $110.00 by the end of Q4 2014. Considering both fundamental bearish outlooks, one has to turn to other discreet tool to decipher any potential trade opportunity. This is when my prop predictive/forecasting model comes handy. TECHNICAL DATA: Before I define the bearish targets which have been issued by the predictive/forecasting mode, I must define what upside risk exists based on the recent price action. Looking at recent price action, several R/S levels are worth defining - Here is a preliminary chart I am consulting to define these level: $EURJPY - 4-Hour: - A quick correction first and an explication: 1 - The bullish pattern defined is a Shark. A correction is in order here, as the Shark starts its point enumeration at "zero', then completes its pattern at Point-C. This is so, because it often acts as the "gate-keeper" to the 5-0 pattern, which is defined and completes at the 50 percent (hence 5-0) point of the Shark's last defining impulse leg (i.e.: the B-C leg, completing the Shark pattern at Point-C) - For added information on this pattern, I would consult Mr. Scott Carney's book and site: Harmonic Trading, where the pattern are well defined therein. The first trading range defined above the 50% level is defined by the predictive model that sees a significant resistance/reversal potential there. So, I have chosen that zone as a probable entry level in consideration of a short position. The second, higher range defines what I had defined before as the EAGLE (i.e.: (E)xtremely (AG)gressive (L)evel of (E), which is a prior strategy for counter-trend entries). It would define a last ditch consideration for a short, affording a much lower, much preferable risk/reward ratio. PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL: The prop model has thus defined the following bearish targets, as it signaled already a bearish market reversal confirmation: 1 - TG-1 = 135.232 - 17 JUN 2014, moderate probability 2 - TG-2 = 129.950 - 17 JUN 2014, moderate probability and 3 - TG-Lo = 124.537 - 17 JUN 2014, low probability The probability qualifiers are in reference to price's ability to ever reach these levels. As mentioned in prior analyses, a TG-Lo/TG-Hi are typically referencing extreme targets of low-probility, but if and once price ever reached these levels, they tend to act as reversal-low and reversal-top levels, respectively OVERALL: The fundamental analyses are not supportive of any distinct directional clues. However, the model did signal a bearish market reversal. Given the possibility of reactive upside, I caution the trader to look for overhead exposures. The ones I have defined are based on personal research. So, "do the due" diligence. Cheers, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting ---------------------- Twitter: @4xForecaster, if you'd like to follow future analyses and forecasts in Forex, metals, indices and bitcoin ----------------------
Short
by 4xForecaster
6
Relative Strength Chart: XAU vs. JPY | $XAU $USD $JPY #ForexFor the record - Looking at two benchmark values (XAU and JPY relative to USD, expressed in relative strength terms). Expecting persistent decline in Gold, as has been the continued case herein. Expecting strengthening of the USD against JPY, mainly driven by: 1 - $TNX rate increase 2 - Japanese Govt bond rate decrease 3 - Japan persistent QE + ZIRP + miscellaneous asset repurchasing plans Worth following as a tale-tell of directional strength. (Not Twitter'ed) David Alcindor
FX:XAUUSDShort
by 4xForecaster
Short Opp @ 93.995 On The Move | $CAD $JPY #BOC #BOJ #ForexFriends, In case you had missed one of the many signals I release via my Twitter alias, @4xForecaster, here is a repost of the tweet from this June 03rd, 2014: --------------------------------- "$CADJPY - Short opp @ 93.995 - SL trader's tolerance risk (mine: 94.03 = 93.995 + spread) - S/T TP@ 93.371 - L/T TP@ 91.489 - High RR" --------------------------------- Time-posted source: twitter.com As of this morning, the trade is well on its way, although today's data may frustrate the plan. Nonetheless, I thought it was worth posting this for the record, as price continues to near the S/T target at 93.371. Added downside exists on a technical basis, but the force of the fundamentals might tip the balance one side or another between here and the more abysmal target. More on this as time elapses. While the trade was generated based on a technical basis, the predictive/forecasting model remains at an impass, between a S/T bearish bias and a L/T bullish bias, making the directional bias a "Neutral" one, and elevating this trade at a highly-speculative level. Cheers, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting --------------------- Twitter: @4xForecaster Forecast archive: bit.ly ---------------------
by 4xForecaster
1
USDJPY: Correction but still same directionUSDJPY is a nice pair having mechanical behaviour to political and economic statements and decision. Remember when FEd decided QE1, USD shrink against the YEN, but when BoJ decided to put its QE, it was the otherway around. At the present, we do have FED's Tappering vs Boj decision to put an end to the QE. But BoJ push really hard the QE. where as FED's QE1+2+3 were more gradual as the tappering is at the present. Technicaly speaking it appears that we are on an overbought level and therefore, there may be a technical correction on the dowside of the pair, in favor of YEN until 101.8 or 101.5 where there is a solid support level. After reaching that technical level for a correction, USD may go again on the upside toward 104 or around.
by Pashabxl
USDJPY: The future trend is in the hands of FED and YELLENThe future of USDJPY pair is in the hands of the FED. BoJ made its announcement in the past week and decided to put an end to the Quantitative easing. On a very long term basis, USD vs JPY fight should end with USD being on the winning side. The "Historical" trading range of USDJPY is between 99 and 104 when the market is not distorted by Central Banks action either BoJ or FED. Having said that, at the present time we are in a range where we do need to see the decision of FED with regard interest rate. If FED will raise interest raise, then mechanicaly, YEN will loose ground and we may see another way up towards 104. On the other hand, if BoJ's bet to increase the growth through inflation succeed, there might be a little situation in favor of JPY but it won't be a long lasting effect baring in mind that USD is stronger as a currency then JPY. Technically speaking, MA50 is behaving as a resistance level. Stoch shows clearly that we are about to come to an oversold level, i.e there is a room towards 100 but not more. Therefore the tricky part is the entry level rather then the direction. Now we need to see ECB, FED and there future decisions that will be announced in the coming days. I still think that we are at a short time Short and long Time LONG scenario.
by Pashabxl
USDJPY: The question is what with FED and interest rate?USDJPY is floating in a large band between 103,5 and 101 since JAnuary 2014. It was an easy trading. Around 103 you short and at around 101 you go long. After BoJ announcement of the tightening of the monetary policy, and the tappering, the balance and the swing would have been almost the same with a rising trend in favor of USD. But there is a new situation one should keep in mind. Macro economic datas from US are not as good as one could think. Which means that if FED is obliged to continue low interest rate, and with BoJ putting an end to its monetary easing policy, USD could loose ground against the YEN. Therefore if FED is keeping it's Tappering policy and announce that they will care about an eventual inflation risk, USD will win against YEN and we can then go further up, if not, it will be the other way around toward 97.
by Pashabxl
Black swan events: How currencies react - YenApologies for the ominous chart title on a Monday morning, but having spent the weekend watching a few documentaries about the Japan earthquake, I was intrigued on how the currency markets react to black swan events. The Story (Japan Earthquake - Yen) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- The Tohoku earthquake hits Japan on 11th March. What we see is a sell off in USDJPY... In other words, people were selling USD to buy the Yen. Goes to show how strongly the markets believe in the Yen as a safe haven even if crisis comes to Japan. After a sharp drop, G7 central banks intervene in the markets to offer support. So they start buying USD and selling Yen, which forms an interim rally. On 04/07 BoJ announces a stimulus package, which triggers another sell off in the markets. Few days later, Fukushima nuclear alert is given which sparks a continuation of the sell off. This time it breaks the CB's support as well. I could go on but follow the notes on the chart backed up by the news sources that explains the currency moves. PS: For all those ECB QE addicts, I stumbled upon a very nice article which is worth reading and could possibly shed light on how European QE could work: Source: yhoo.it PPS: The chart is incomplete... There's just too much happening when it comes to the Yen.
Education
by justatrader
5
USDJPYIn my view, political agenda , economic agenda and the behaviour of EURO against USD will give the direction and the impetus for USDJPY. On a purely mechanical point of view, BoJ is still printing a huge amount of Yen comparing to the calendar of FED where Yellen is still sticking to the tapering. On the Other hand, ECB President Draghi, will make his statement on June4th with regard the futur policy of ECB on LTRO, ABS, EURUSD parity etc. Therefore, the move and the direction is pending to political statement. Having said that, the H4 charts shows some signal with regard a very early stage of a possible reversal, i.e STOCH have given the initial signal, then MA6 has start to cross up MA9, but it is too early. We need to see other sign of confirmation, I.E MACD, RSI, as well as at least MA6 crossing M16 and M50 with a confirmed CCI move up to think that 101.5 is a serious support for an initial move upward. 101.7-102 would be the catalysis of the move.
by Pashabxl