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Gold Hits Key Resistance, Trades Low on Equity HighsGold has played out well on a technical basis. My previous analysis was rather spot on, as price action was leaning towards support at $1,133 from $1,170. Price found support and moved higher to resistance level one of $1,179 before profit taking today. Price action should remain within the descending channel, while a close below it will likely send gold quickly to $1,000. See this week's analysis here: tinyurl.com Please see previous analysis here: tinyurl.com
COMEX:GC1!
by CommoditiesTrader
SHORT USD/JPY. YEN PAIRS MAY CRASH STRONGLY. HERE'S WHY1) SP500 on ALL TIME HIGHS, MEGAPHONE pattern, GLOBAL RISK OFF 2) Investors confidence extremely BULLISH 3) YEN INDEX is technically EXTREMELY OVERBOUGHT, ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATION BOLLINGER BANDS on daily basis 4) USD is EXTREMELY OVERBOUGHT aswell as US growth has been EXAGGERATED. Wage growth is WEAK, and INFLATION EXPECTATIONS are really WEAK, so FED won't raise rates until 2016 or later against market expectations of June-September 2015. When market adjusts to this new reallity, USD will crash heavily. 5) Non-commercial longs for DOLLAR INDEX at IMM/Chicago Futures Markets are at multiyear highs. Market is EXTREMELY LONG USD, which implies huge asymmetrical risks for USD. Any BETTER than exp data will barely push USD up, but any WEAKER than exp data will damage severely bullish USD trend. 6) China data is WORSENING and WORSENING everday, trade balance weakens, inflation weakens, it won't take much time till market aknowledges that global growth is really SCREWED (+OIL on multiyear lows, indication of low growth) and sooner than later this will spread PANIC amongst market participants causing global RISK OFF. This is why in my honest opinion, there is a lot of RISK/REWARD on shorting specially USD/JPY and ris appetite driven pair AUD/JPY. Tip: Don't wait to market crash to get into this trade. Do it now, when close to all time highs on SP500/Nasdaq, and synthethic YEN INDEX, where decision for exiting shorts is easy.
Short
by seb
3
Is A Rally Realizable? Market Gemetries Offer An Insight | $JPYFriends, The $USDJPY posted a series of triangular geometries whose Fibonacci relationship remains significant (see DAILY chart). Just as importantly, a finaer granular analysis of internal geometries would also suggest that added upside remains probable as of this market close (10 OCT 2014): Following is a cut/paste discussion held from a recent $USDJPY posting, where I highlight internal market geometries, most of them expressed in terms of Mr. Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Waves pattern - Here is the content: ========================== Source: (...) Looks like we are dealing with a COR (M15/M60) within a COR (M240/DAILY) within a COR (WEEKLY), wherein a series of internal triangles/WW are boxed within one another. Here are the three timeframes in which these geometries have occurred: 1 - WEEKLY VIEW: - A Wolfe Wave hit 109.xx target and came to a 5-prime position. Yet, price is now resting on pattern's 1-3-5 Line, which may suggest a potential support. Less likely to occur here would be a rare 5-second (5") event: 2 - DAILY VIEW (same as weekly pattern): - Note here that a large WW already met its 5-prime requirement for a reversal. This chart alone speak against any significant rallying potential, although the current price at market closure rested on a significant 1-3-5 Line support: 3 - 4-HOUR VIEW: - Here, there is a definite geometric conflict worth pondering: a -- Price rests at 1-3-5 Line of a larger WW (seen above in DAILY and WEEKLY views) b -- An internal WW (BLUE) reached its own 5-prime, indicating a probable rallying event c -- A larger WW (PINK) also reached its own 5-prime position, reinforcing a similar rallying heralding: 4 - 60-MIN. VIEW: - In this chart, we are looking at the internal WW (BLUE) illustrated in the 4-Hour chart above. Here, the technical detail go a bit further, as we are seeing a RSI sitting on its own supporting trendline, within its own triangle. OVERALL: While price has been pushed to a significant bearish level, both the geometries and technical indicators are calling for a pullback. While this remains only a probability event, it its quite interesting to see how a lot of this internal-within-internal geometries are supporting a net reactive rally probability. Sunday's open might possibly offer a directional flavor for the remainder of the week. Cheers, David Alcindor ========================== OVERALL: As you may recall, this chart () was looking at a potential upside, which has since been reached. Therefore, we are currently at a significant cross-road where bulls and bears are battling with crosses, arrows and and triangle shields in hands. For the conflicting technical reasons above, I have chosen to turn TradingView's market direction tag to "Neutral" Cheers, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA ---------- Twitter: @4xForecaster ----------
by 4xForecaster
33
$JPY Hit Forecast TG @ 107.509; Eyes TG-Hi @ 109.786 | #forexFriends, As discussed over the recently days, price was preparing a rally given a parameter - Lower values threatened to signal a trend reversal, however, Wolfe Waves Pattern stole the show here. In the earlier analysis, there were concerns about a possible down-trend reversal had price maintained its course. Yesterday, I mentioned: "I personally do NOT like to see Point-5 neglected by wave count. Wave count is odd here, so beware of possible DEEPER pull-back. Levels given are structural analysis." (Source: "Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Room, TradingView.com - 16 SEP 2014: www.tradingview.com) INDEED, WOLFE WAVE DELIVERS: As suspected, price met the predefined Point-5 and reversed from there, affording the Wolfe Wave pattern trader to be given no other directional indication but up, especially as none of the candles that completed WW at Point-5 ever closed below that 1-3-5 Line - From this WW Point-5 validation, the WW trader had no other prospect but up. OUTLOOK - EXPECT TG-Hi = 109.786: Outlook remains intact at this point, with a loftier TG-Hi, defined at 109.786 five days ago (12 SEP 2014). The model is giving this as a qualitative (i.e. "Hi" or "Lo") target, or "Qual-Target" in contrast to a quantitative (i.e.: TG-1, TG-2, TG-3, ... TG-n), or "Quant-Target". As indicated several times before, Quant-Targets have reversible powers, being able to repulse price back to greater depths than the expected 0.382, 0.500 or 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels. While a definition of these levels will require added analysis (If and once price gets to 109.786), the current predictive/forecasting model remains bullish and supportive of the target it had defined back on 12 SEP 2014. OVERALL: Wolfe Wave completed and buoyed price to higher highs. The remainder of the rally is expected to be fueled via other geometries than the WW. Look for Elliott Wave expanded flats, running flats or other dynamic motives. However, once 109.786 level is reached, prospects for higher levels are likely to meet a significant bearish entrenchment at that defined level. Cheers, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA ----------------- Twitter: @4xForecaster -----------------
Long
by 4xForecaster
4
$NIKKEI - The Ending Diagonal - Abenomics Part II.'On last Thursday, Kuroda met with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and assured him that he would do more if needed, especially if the BOJ is still failing to meet its 2 percent inflation target. "Should conditions emerge where the target becomes difficult to meet, we are ready to make without hesitation adjustments to policy, additional easing or whatever," Kuroda told reporters after the meeting. ' Yen weakens, the Nikkei growing. Land of the Rising Sun not yet said the last word. The next BOJ meeting ist on Oct. 6-7. Until then, the market will live in hope. www.cnbc.com www.elliottwave.com
NLong
by hehe
7
XAUUSD: Toward a little correction upside before breaking badThere is no surprise in the trend of GOLD. For those who follow closely my analysis, there isn't yet an environment where GOLD may have a perspective of growth. Since FED and ECB as well as BoJ have lowered there interest rate, there is not yet a room to see a growing GOLD. From time to time, when the market is exaggerating the move, there may be an upside correction as it is for the time being. But on the medium term, and until ECB FED BoJ BoE increase there interest rate, or in a case of a serious inflation risk, GOLD may continue its path towards 1180 and even lower. On a short term basis, there may be a little correction on the upside, but this is just to balance the oversold situation
FX:XAUUSD
by Pashabxl
2
$JPY Sees Reversal @ 96.710 Before 152.073 via #elliottwave FlatFriends, Several months ago (March 04th, 2014), this $JPY was sitting at 102.2 when the predictiive/forecasting model released two target that eventually got hit - Replay the price action here: . Today, I would like to make a case for a similar lofty, long-term call with an intermediate unwinding to the downside first, as to provide price with the necessary technical springboard before its ascension to a potential historical high. For now, the downside target is purely Fibonacci-based, seeking a 38.2% retracement relative to the recent upswing. Playing out this approximate scenario, the predictive/forecasting model was able to define a lofty target as well. But first, let's talk about the technical reasons behind the moves, before we define the targets per se: TECHNICAL RATIONALE - Using Weekly Chart (Link to Weekly Chart: ) 1 - Price has rallied sustainably until now. In fact, a simple Elliott Wave analysis should easily demonstrate that recent ascension was built on the back of a FIRST WAVE EXTENSION, now arriving at a consolidation pattern, knows to the Elliotician as an Ending Triangle. 2 - In the more general view of the chart, one can also appreciate that price has approached historical price clusters to its left of the MONTHLY price field, which define prior support turned resistance as of now. In order to define that level, one may turn to Fibonacci's lowest acceptable 38.2% as far as building a geometric pattern fro which to propulse future price action. 3 - A proprietary pattern ("Janus Pattern") sees a support as low as 88.989 - While this prop pattern cannot be shared, I will simply announce it here as a way to established the LOWEST possible retracement in that WEKLY chart - Link provided above. 4 - Now, looking at the last and loftiest target, we will consider that this Weekly chart is in the process of defining an ELLIOTT WAVE's Bearish Flat, whose skeletal anatomy demands a 3-3-5 structure, to define Waves A, B and C, respectively. As we just discussed about a retracement to a significant low, one may now assume that this forecast low would become a basis for a rise paced in a 5-wave fashion to define the final Point-C of this flat. See Monthly flat to appreciate the relative positions of Points A and C, each born out of zig-zag waves as per EWP rules, where A represents an upwards correction of 3-wave structure, B a 3-wave ipsi-directional to major trend, and C an expected 5-wave structure. TARGET DEFINED: All rationale above yielded the following targets, written in the order of expected price action development: 1 - TG-Hi = 109.786 - 12 SEP 2014 2 - TG-Lo = 88.989 - JANUS PATTERN - 12 SEP 2014 and 3 - TGx = 152.073 - 12 SEP 2014 OVERALL: Note that SPX and $USDJPY are well correlated, and that this analysis in the most immediate term reflects a similar upturn of e-Mini S&P500 ES, just posted today - See that analysis here: - www.tradingview.com As I post this, please allow me the time to also post other pertinent timeframes to put the entire analysis in its proper context. Thank you. David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA -------------------- Twitter: @4xForecaster --------------------
by 4xForecaster
36
USDJPY: Range trading continuesWith FED's current policy and without any change in the interest rate from FED or BoJ, we are in a range trade where would buy at 101.2 and you sell around 103. Unless BoJ announces a change of policy and until FEd's increased its interest rate, we may be stuck in the range trade. However please bare in mind that when FEd will increase its interest rate, the equilibrium may very much change. Keep in mind that BoJ is also about to announce for the end of the year its inflation target which is about 2% Therefore the timing of the announcement concerning interest rate increase of BoJ and FEd in very much important. This may put an end to range trade which now is an easy money game ;-)
by Pashabxl
USDJPY: Initial signal for an upside move is presentUSDJPY is on the move. Altough the pair didn't cross 101.8 in a sustainable way, it is still above 101.5 which is our benchmark. At the present time, the pair is at an oversold level, i.e correction is imminent. If the correction level remain around 101.5-101.3, USDJPY may jump on the upside. Based on Ichimoku, we have 2 out of 4 positives signal for an upside. Tenkan-Kijun twist occured. There is no Kumo Twist YET. However, the Lagging span did a very well job, penetrating the price and the cloud. Tenkan-Kijun twist happend outside the kumo cloud which menas that the upside will be full of momentum.
by Pashabxl
Bearish Potential ... Watchful Waiting | $AUD $JPY #RBA #BOJTraders, Potential reversal has emerged - albeit quite speculative - on the back of an expanding triangle near-completion at Point-5, as well as a prop-pattern potential ("Great White"). -------------------------- TECH-NOTE: The Case For A Higher Point-5: 1 - Note that such triangles can often post an overlap of Point-5 across its 1-3 line, so further rallying is not excluded. 2 - Point-5 might point higher on the basis of an incomplete a-b-c wave pattern -------------------------- I would seek reversal confirmation signals based on your own methodology first and foremost. However, I thought it worse posting. Predictive Model remains BULLISH at this point, hence the "speculative" qualifier on this one. If and once the predictive model comes into alignment with above speculative plan, then I release a series of target with better definitions - Again: IF and ONCE. OVERALL: - Pattern play is BEARISH - Predictive Model is BULLISH - NET consideration is NEUTRAL = Favors bearish downturn, pending confirmation Cheers, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
by 4xForecaster
10
USDJPY: Key targets 102.6 and 103.5 remain intact.USDJPY's trading plan is still valid. My benchmark is 101.5 and the key support level is 101.325. Indicators show that we are at an oversold level because of FEd's Early announcement concerning the increase of the interest rate. However, USD is the strong currency on the USDJPY pair. The black forcast shows the expected curve and trend of USDJPY. Please disregard the timescale. The target could be achieved quicker or slower but I did draw it by hand without taking into consideration the timescale.
Long
by Pashabxl
USDJPY: Keeping the 102.6 and 103.5 targetUSDJPY is almost at its lowest level but the pair is in a falling wedge pattern. FEd decided not to increase its interest rate before 1Q15 therefore, the expected rise of USD against JPY has been a little bit delayed. however, USD is the string currency against JPY and there is no delay in the tappering program. I.E there will be less money in the market as far as the amount is concerned but there will still be cheap money in the market. Coming back to my trading plan, the headline goal remain 102.6 and 103.5. We are at an oversold level at the present, and both indicator show that we are on the eve of an uptrend again. Of course, one has to watch carefully 101.2 because bellow that level we may very well fall into 100.8 and even further bellow. But 101.5 is a solid support and resistance. If the pair raises over 101.3 to 101.5 and above, we can safely keep the target. At the present moment we are still in the safe side of the story.
Long
by Pashabxl
USDJPY: As usual short time short long time longWe do have 2 datas in hand. 1-FED will not review its interest rate on the upside before 1Q15. 2-BoJ is planning to reach it's inflation Target. Japan will release important figure this week that may affect the pair. therefore one should be very caution before entering the market. Having said that, on a long term basis, BoJ and FED are planning to increase their interest rate and USD will win against Yen. But on a short term basis, if Japanese retail sales figure as well as household expenses and National Core CPI are within the expectation or even better, then USD may loose ground against JPY on a short terme basis.
by Pashabxl
USDJPYSince there is no change in FED's policy, ie no review or postponing of the QE end date, in other word, FEd is keeping the tapering schedule, interest rate will not rise one to a sudden, at least not before 1Q15, we can expect 101.5 to remain an important support level and 103.5 an important resistance level. If FEd increase its interest rate, we may se a move above 103.5. If BoJ fulfill its 2% inflation target, we may see a move bellow 101.5. In the mean time, the channel is between 101.5 and 103.5 . you can see my studies 11 days ago. Nothing has changed.
Long
by Pashabxl
Bearish Signal & Targets | $EUR $JPY ##ECB #BOJ #Forex $USDFriends, This pair is quite difficult to grasp from a fundamental perspective, as both $EUR and $JPY are expected to under-perform. Yet, there could potentially be a trade opp here, using my prop predictive/forecasting model FUNDAMENTAL DATA: First, $EUR's recent negative deposit rate combined with ECB's option of turning to large-scale asset purchases are two fundamental drives that would guarantee bears dominance in the medium and long range. Second, $JPY is expected to remain under pressure, as #BoJ's QE remains the dominant feature. Japanese investors would probably add further bearish pressure on the #Yen as they consider better returns from foreign bonds. Institutional consensus is thus bearish, with an expectation that $USDJPY might possibly reach $110.00 by the end of Q4 2014. Considering both fundamental bearish outlooks, one has to turn to other discreet tool to decipher any potential trade opportunity. This is when my prop predictive/forecasting model comes handy. TECHNICAL DATA: Before I define the bearish targets which have been issued by the predictive/forecasting mode, I must define what upside risk exists based on the recent price action. Looking at recent price action, several R/S levels are worth defining - Here is a preliminary chart I am consulting to define these level: $EURJPY - 4-Hour: - A quick correction first and an explication: 1 - The bullish pattern defined is a Shark. A correction is in order here, as the Shark starts its point enumeration at "zero', then completes its pattern at Point-C. This is so, because it often acts as the "gate-keeper" to the 5-0 pattern, which is defined and completes at the 50 percent (hence 5-0) point of the Shark's last defining impulse leg (i.e.: the B-C leg, completing the Shark pattern at Point-C) - For added information on this pattern, I would consult Mr. Scott Carney's book and site: Harmonic Trading, where the pattern are well defined therein. The first trading range defined above the 50% level is defined by the predictive model that sees a significant resistance/reversal potential there. So, I have chosen that zone as a probable entry level in consideration of a short position. The second, higher range defines what I had defined before as the EAGLE (i.e.: (E)xtremely (AG)gressive (L)evel of (E), which is a prior strategy for counter-trend entries). It would define a last ditch consideration for a short, affording a much lower, much preferable risk/reward ratio. PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL: The prop model has thus defined the following bearish targets, as it signaled already a bearish market reversal confirmation: 1 - TG-1 = 135.232 - 17 JUN 2014, moderate probability 2 - TG-2 = 129.950 - 17 JUN 2014, moderate probability and 3 - TG-Lo = 124.537 - 17 JUN 2014, low probability The probability qualifiers are in reference to price's ability to ever reach these levels. As mentioned in prior analyses, a TG-Lo/TG-Hi are typically referencing extreme targets of low-probility, but if and once price ever reached these levels, they tend to act as reversal-low and reversal-top levels, respectively OVERALL: The fundamental analyses are not supportive of any distinct directional clues. However, the model did signal a bearish market reversal. Given the possibility of reactive upside, I caution the trader to look for overhead exposures. The ones I have defined are based on personal research. So, "do the due" diligence. Cheers, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting ---------------------- Twitter: @4xForecaster, if you'd like to follow future analyses and forecasts in Forex, metals, indices and bitcoin ----------------------
Short
by 4xForecaster
6
Relative Strength Chart: XAU vs. JPY | $XAU $USD $JPY #ForexFor the record - Looking at two benchmark values (XAU and JPY relative to USD, expressed in relative strength terms). Expecting persistent decline in Gold, as has been the continued case herein. Expecting strengthening of the USD against JPY, mainly driven by: 1 - $TNX rate increase 2 - Japanese Govt bond rate decrease 3 - Japan persistent QE + ZIRP + miscellaneous asset repurchasing plans Worth following as a tale-tell of directional strength. (Not Twitter'ed) David Alcindor
FX:XAUUSDShort
by 4xForecaster