Update from the BoJ decision todaySince January 2023, the USDJPY has been on an astronomic rise, driven by the significant divergence between FOMC and BoJ monetary policies.
The initial market expectation was for the BoJ to intervene when the USDJPY approaches the 155 price level.
Today the Yen has come under fresh selling pressure, as the BoJ kept rates on hold, taking the USDJPY above 156.
Could 158 at the top of the channel be the next target intervention level?
From the BoJ today
Kept rates on Hold
No comments about an intervention
Yen continues to weaken with USDJPY climbing above 156
Boj
USD/JPY ticks higher ahead of BoJ meetingThe Japanese yen continues to lose ground on Thursday. In the European session USD/JPY is trading at 155.61, up 0.17%. Earlier, the yen dropped to a 34-year low of 155.74.
Friday will be a busy day out of Japan. Tokyo Core CPI, which excludes food, is a key leading indicator of nationwide inflation trends. It is expected to drop to 2.2% in April, down from 2.4% in March. The Tokyo core-core rate, which excludes food and energy, is also expected to fall, from 2.9% in March to 2.7% in April. The March reading marked the first time that the core-core rate fell below 3% since November 2022.
Inflation played a key factor in the Bank of Japan’s historic decision in March to raise interest rates out of negative territory. The BoJ wants to see service inflation and wage growth to rise in order to ensure that inflation remains sustainable at the 2% target.
The Bank of Japan meets on Friday as the Japanese yen continues to lose ground. The yen has lost about 10.4% against the US dollar in 2024 and this sharp descent in such a short period has set off alarm bells in Tokyo. The BoJ’s tightening in March hasn’t stopped the bleeding, as the BoJ has said that it will maintain an accommodative policy and the US/Japan rate differential remains hasn’t narrowed as the Fed has delayed rate cuts.
BOJ expected to stand pat
The BoJ is expected to maintain policy settings at the meeting but Governor Ueda may sound hawkish in order to provide some support for the yen. The meeting could turn out to be a non-event but the threat of intervention from the Ministry of Finance is sure to be on the minds of investors.
The US releases the initial estimate for GDP for the first quarter. The market estimate stands at 2.5% y/y, compared to 3.4% in Q4 2023. The US economy has been robust and rising inflation has not only delayed rate cuts but there is even talk that the Fed could raise rates in order to put the brakes on inflation.
USD/JPY tested support at 155.30 earlier. Below, there is support at 154.13
There is resistance at 155.96 and 157.13
Sights Set HIGH for EURJPY?!Here I have EURJPY on the Daily Chart!
Currently you can see price back up at the Resistance Area of ( 164.3 - 165.3 ) after having tested the Rising Support 4 times with each time successfully having Strong Bullish reactions ... this Price Action has formed what looks to me to be a Bullish Triangle Pattern!
Fundamentally, there's a lot to unpack but with JPY trading down at its 34 Yr Lows and the ECB looking at Rate Cuts soon .. Fundamentals could play a key sticky role!
- EUR has their Final CPI and Final Core CPI y/y tomorrow morning followed by Lagarde Speaking so lets see how things begin to play out!!
Technically, with this potential Bullish Triangle we are looking for continuation of this markets trend prior to entering this pattern! Back in Dec. '23, price made quite a Bullish Recovery off the 200 EMA and has shown great Bullish Momentum thus far!
*If Price gives a solid Break and Close ABOVE the Resistance Area, this could give us a good area of potential Buy Entries
-Beware of FALSE BREAKS!!
*If Price Breaks and Closes BELOW the Rising Support, I'm no longer interested in looking for Buying Opportunities!
USD/JPY looks set for 155 - but will the BOJ allow a breakout?At the beginning of April, Japan's ex-FX diplomat Watanabe said that the BOJ were unlikely to intervene with USD/JPY below 155. Well now the pair trade less than 80 pips beneath this key level (and less than a day's trade by recent standards), 155 is certainly the level to watch today.
The strength of the bullish 1-hour trend makes it seem that USD/JPY has little choice by to at least try and retest 155. Prices are now consolidating after a mild pullback, RSI (2) is nearing oversold during an uptrend and the daily pivot point is nearby for dip buyers to consider longs.
Should momentum turn higher from here, bulls could simply target 155.
As for how it behaves if it meets that level remains to be seen. Yet prior attempts at key levels usually sees momentum either slow down ahead of it, or a volatile breakout is followed by a shakeout before prices revert beneath the key level. The only exception in recent history was IS CPI data which saw prices smash through 152 with apparent ease.
But today we suspect market forces alone can drive prices higher without US data. The question remains as to whether the BOJ will remain quiet and allow the rally to flourish further.
BOJ to boost the yen this Friday? In addition to the eagerly awaited US data slated for release this week, investors will be keeping a close eye on the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision scheduled for Friday.
Market expectations lean towards the BOJ maintaining its current rate settings during Friday's announcement. However, analysts and investors will scrutinize the central bank's commentary for insights into its stance on inflation, as well as indicators like consumption and wages.
A recent forecast from the Japan Center for Economic Research suggests that a majority of economists anticipate at least one more rate hike from the BOJ before year end.
Some market observers speculate that the BOJ's next rate adjustment could be influenced by the depreciation of the yen.
However, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has dismissed this speculation, asserting that this won't directly dictate the central bank's monetary policy decisions. Ueda remains optimistic about wage growth prospects and hints at the possibility of another rate hike if trend inflation shows signs of reaching their projected level.
While we may not see a rate hike this Friday, Deutsche Bank does speculate that BoJ might be able to support the Yen by either removing its JGB purchasing guidelines from its statement or revising them to enhance the flexibility of its purchasing operations
USDJPY Analysis: Bullish Bias Despite Market Volatility- Market Sentiment: Bullish Bias
- Weekly Chart Analysis: Violation of Recent Resistance Indicates Strength
- Trade Plan: Buying Opportunities Favored over Shorting
Analysis:
- Market Sentiment: Maintains Bullish Bias on US Dollar, despite market volatility
- Weekly Chart Analysis: Notable violation of recent resistance level on the USDJPY Weekly chart
- Implications: Market speculation regarding potential BOJ intervention in FX Market
- Trade Plan: Prefers buying opportunities over shorting due to pair's independent behavior
Trade Plan:
- Buying Opportunities: Look for buying opportunities at support levels (e.g., 154.27, 154.12, 153.89)
- Support and Resistance Trading: Shorting opportunity at 154.70 on the 1-hourly chart, although not actively pursued
Insights:
Maintaining a bullish bias on USDJPY despite market volatility, with a focus on buying opportunities over shorting. Preference for buying entries at support levels, while remaining cautious of resistance levels for potential shorting opportunities. Exercise caution and adaptability in response to the pair's independent behavior.
📈📉 Remain vigilant and adaptable in navigating the USDJPY market, prioritizing risk management and flexibility in trade execution!
USD/JPY jumpy as Japan’s core CPI easesThe Japanese yen showed some promise earlier, gaining as much as 0.48% against the US dollar as it rose to 153.59. However, it has pared those gains and is trading in Europe at 154.58, down 0.04%.
Japan’s nationwide CPI, which excludes fresh food, rose 2.6% y/y in March, down from 2.8% in February but higher than the market estimate of 2.7%. Core CPI has now exceeded the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for 24 consecutive months. The deceleration was driven by a decrease in food inflation but the yen’s weakness prevented a sharper drop in inflation.
The “core-core” CPI reading, which excludes fresh food and energy, dropped from 3.2% to 2.9% in March, below the forecast of 3%. This marked the first time that the index has fallen below 3% since November 2022.
While consumer inflation continues to slow, the Bank of Japan is more focused on services inflation, as it believes that services inflation together with higher wage growth are the recipe to ensuring that inflation remains sustainable at the 2% target.
The yen is down almost 10% since the start of the year and the sharp depreciation in such a short period has Tokyo concerned. The Ministry of Finance last intervened in the currency markets in late 2022 when the yen traded around 152. With the yen falling this week to 154.78, a 34-year old low, the markets are on alert for the possibility of another intervention.
The weak yen could also have a significant impact on rate policy. On Thursday, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said that the Bank might raise interest rates again if the yen’s decline led to a significant rise in inflation. The BoJ lifted rates out of negative policy in March but the yen has weakened since then.
USD/JPY tested resistance at 154.43 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 154.71
There is support at 154.11 and 153.83
How much higher can the USDJPY go?Yen weakness despite...
BoJ Exited negative rates regime
Increasing geopolitical uncertainty
Gold at historic highs of 2430
In 2022 and 2023, when the USDJPY approached the 152 price level, open/discreet intervention was in place to strengthen the Japanese Yen.
However, in 2024, the USDJPY has now surged past the 152 resistance level, with the Japanese Yen continuing to show signs of weakness.
Could 155 be the next target price level for an intervention?
Japan Currency Crash After Rate Hike - Inflation cycle begin A brand-new cycle for the Japanese economy is in the making with a higher inflation to come and a weaker yen.
When the Bank of Japan hiked interest rates for the first time in 17 years, the Japanese Yen instead of strengthening, it crashed.
Micro Japanese Yen Futures
Ticker: MJY
Minimum fluctuation:
0.000001 per JPY increment = $1.25
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Ticker: 6J
Minimum fluctuation:
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EURJPY's Upward Momentum and Opportunities AheadThe EURJPY pair has shown promising strength after a corrective phase from its peak on March 21, 2024. Today, it successfully breached a significant resistance level at 163.322, providing a stronger confirmation of the existing bullish momentum. With this noteworthy breakout, the allure of a Long position becomes increasingly compelling.
Technical Analysis:
On the 4-hour timeframe, EURJPY is currently trading above several key moving averages, including the SMA 7, SMA 24, and SMA 150. This indicates clear bullish strength, especially after a prolonged correction period. The breakout from the resistance level at 163.322 adds confidence to further bullish momentum, with technical indicators suggesting potential for higher moves.
Fundamental Insights (JPY):
Despite the Bank of Japan's exit from negative interest rate policy, BOJ Governor Ueda has reiterated the commitment to continue purchasing Japan Bonds and refrain from raising interest rates. This monetary policy stance has triggered sustained weakness in the Japanese yen, evident from its recent depreciation. With supportive fundamental conditions, yen weakness adds impetus for the EURJPY pair to continue its bullish trend.
Trade Targets:
- Target 1: 164.414
- Target 2: 165.380
- Target 3: 167.252
These targets are calculated using Fibonacci ratios, with Target 3 reaching approximately 140% of the previous rally and the historical resistance. Each target offers potential for significant gains for traders entering Long positions.
Risks to Consider:
- Sudden shifts in market sentiment or unforeseen fundamental developments may impact the direction of EURJPY movements.
- Market volatility and the possibility of retracement during the journey towards the take profit targets should be duly noted.
With a strong confirmation of bullish breakout and support from both technical and fundamental analyses, Long positions in EURJPY present enticing profit opportunities. However, it is essential to remain vigilant of risks and manage them prudently with every trade executed.
USD/JPY slides to lowest level since 1990The Japanese yen has edged higher on Wednesday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 151.17, down 0.26%.
The Bank of Japan raised interest rates last week for the first time since 2007. The move marked a sea-change in monetary policy. However, the tightening has not translated into gains for the Japanese yen, which remains under pressure. Earlier today, the yen fell as low as 151.97, its lowest level since 1990.
Will the yen’s slide trigger a currency intervention from Japan’s Ministry of Finance? The MOF intervened last October when the yen dropped to 151.94, which means we are clearly within “intervention territory”. The MOF’s response to the current decline, however, has been limited to verbal intervention.
On Monday, as the top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, sent a warning to speculators that he was concerned by the yen’s slide, saying it did not reflect fundamentals. Earlier today, Japan’s finance minister, Shunichi Suzuki, warned that excessive movement by the yen would be answered with “decisive steps”.
Japanese officials have limited their response to the yen’s woes with jawboning but the risk of intervention is very real and will increase if the yen continues to lose ground. Still, it should be noted that last year’s interventions didn’t really get the job done, as yen gains were short-lived.
The lack of certainty as to whether Tokyo will intervene to prop up the yen could result in volatility for USD/JPY and investors will be listening carefully to every comment coming out of the BoJ or the MOF.
USD/JPY remains range-bound on the weekly chart:
152.58 and 153.70 are the next resistance lines\
There is support at 150.74 and 149.62
Tokyo Inflation to trigger yen Intervention? But at what price?Recent remarks made by Masato Kanda, Japan's vice-finance minister for international affairs, have led to heightened cautiousness regarding potential actions by authorities to support the yen through intervention.
The USD/JPY has comfortably surpassed the 150.000 threshold, which historically has prompting interventions by the Bank of Japan to limit the weakness in the yen. This precedent was observed in 2022 when the currency reached 151.950 against the US dollar.
But have the intervention goal posts moved?
Maybe only slightly. Credit Agricole’s FAST FX model suggests a selling strategy for USD/JPY if it crosses 152.20.
Anticipated inflation data for Tokyo, scheduled for release later this week, could serve as a potential trigger for intervention. A higher-than-expected reading may positively impact the JPY, indicating bullish sentiment and potentially help the BoJ avoid the need to intervene. Conversely, a lower-than-anticipated figure could exert a bearish influence on the JPY.
USD/JPY shrugs after BoJ core inflation dipsThe Japanese yen continues to have a quiet week. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 151.36, down 0.03%.
Bank of Japan core inflation fell to 2.3% in February, down from 2.6% in January and shy of the market estimate of 2.5%. The release further complicates the inflation picture in Japan, as we continue to see inflation indicators heading in all directions. The BoJ core inflation index eased in February ,while the services producer price index climbed 2.1%, unchanged from January.
The BoJ made a massive pivot last week as it raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years. The central bank is counting on rising service inflation replacing cost-push inflation as the main driver of inflation, which it expects will make inflation sustainable around the 2% target.
The shift in monetary policy has not translated into a win for the yen, which is above the 151 line. There is the threat of currency intervention, as Tokyo intervened last September and October when USD/JPY rose above 152. Japanese officials are trying to jawbone the yen higher before resorting to intervention, with Japan’s top currency diplomat sending a warning on Monday to speculators from trying to sell of the yen, saying the currency’s recent slide did not reflect fundamentals.
In the US, it was a mixed day. Durable goods recovered in February with a gain of 1.4% m/m in February. This followed a 6.9% slide in January and beat the market estimate of 1.1%. The Conference Board consumer confidence index was almost unchanged at 104.7 in February, compared to 104.8 a month earlier. This was shy of the market estimate of 107.
USD/JPY tested support earlier at 151.35. Below, there is support at 151.13
151.64 and 151.86 are the next resistance lines
USD/JPY drifting at start of weekThe Japanese yen is showing limited movement on Monday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 151.25, down 0.13%.
Last week’s Bank of Japan was dramatic as the central bank raised interest rates for the first time since 2007. The move did not catch the markets completely by surprise, as some media reports ahead of the meeting said the BoJ would raise rates and investors were looking at both the March and April meetings as strong possibilities for a rate hike.
The yen did not respond to the rate hike with gains, as might have been expected. There are several reasons for this. First, the actual tightening was limited, with rates rising from -0.10% to 0.10%. This means that although the BoJ rate is now in positive territory, the move had little impact on the wide USD/JPY rate differential. BoJ Governor Ueda said after the meeting that despite the hike, monetary policy would remain accommodative, saying that there was “some distance to go” until inflation climbs to the 2% target.
As well, many investors approached the BoJ meeting with a “buy the rumour, sell the fact” approach and this resulted in heavy selling of the yen after the rate announcement. The yen slipped 1.60% last week and dropped as low as 151.86, its lowest level since November 2023.
The Japanese yen has dropped to levels that could invite intervention - the Ministry of Finance intervened last September and October when the yen dropped to around the 152 line. If the yen continues to lose ground, the threat of intervention will become greater.
In the US, the markets have priced in three rate cuts this year, and the Fed also projected three cuts this year at last week’s meeting. However, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic sounded hawkish on Friday when he said that he expects only one quarter-point cut this year.
Bostic said that he was “definitely less confident than I was in December” that inflation will continue to drop towards the 2% target, as he noted that inflation remains stubbornly high and the US economy has been more resilient than he expected.
USD/JPY is putting pressure on resistance at 151.44. Above, there is resistance at 151.88
151.02 and 15058 are providing support
$JPIRYY -CPI (YoY)ECONOMICS:JPIRYY Japan Inflation Rate Lowest in A Year
The annual inflation rate in Japan fell to 3.0% in September 2023 from 3.2% in August, pointing to the lowest reading since September 2022.
Meantime, core inflation rate dropped to a 13-month low of 2.8%,
slightly above market consensus of 2.7% while staying outside the Bank of Japan's 2% target for the 18th month.
Core inflation rate dropped to a 13-month low of 2.8%, slightly above consensus of 2.7% while staying outside the Bank of Japan's 2% target for the 18th month. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.3% in September, after a 0.2% gain in August. source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications
source:
Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications
BoJ Hikes Rates, the first time in 17 years!Yesterday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) released its decision to end eight years of negative interest rates, adjusting the short-term policy rate to around 0.00% to 0.10%.
Although an interest rate hike is supposed to lead to the currency strengthening, the Yen weakened following the release of the news, with the USDJPY climbing higher from 149.40 toward the resistance level of 151.
The BoJ also indicated that while it will scrap its YCC framework (upper bound of 1% on 10-year JGBs) it will continue to buy some Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs), maintaining a Quantitative Easing (QE) approach, hence keeping some aspect of the accommodative policy.
Markets anticipate that this could be a one off adjustment, and the BoJ is unlikely to follow yesterday's rate decision with a series of rate hikes. This could be considered as a Dovish rate hike.
The divergence in monetary policies between the BoJ and the FOMC (and other major central banks) continues, which is likely the cause of the continued weakness of the Yen.
Today, the Yen has continued to weaken, with the USDJPY breaking above the round number resistance of 151, and is likely to retest the historic high of 151.90, last reached in November 2023.
Attention now shifts toward the FOMC.
EUR/JPY H4 | Could the BoJ finally raise interest rates today?EUR/JPY could fall towards a potential breakout level and drop lower from here should we see the BoJ finally raises interest rates today (19th March).
Sell entry is at 161.877 which is a potential breakout level.
Stop loss is at 162.800 which is a level that sits above an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 160.380 which is a pullback support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
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USD/JPY soars as BoJ scraps negative ratesThe Japanese yen has taken a tumble on Tuesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 150.67, up 1.02%.
The Bank of Japan hiked interest rates for the first time since 2007 at today’s meeting and also abolished the yield control curve to target interest rate at specific levels. There was a strong possibility that the BoJ might wait until April to tighten policy, but the fact that the BoJ did not deny media reports that the central bank would act today meant that the markets were not shocked that the move occurred today.
Interestingly, the yen has nosedived despite the BoJ tightening policy. This can be explained by the fact that the BoJ may have ended negative rates but the move was small, as rates have risen from -0.1% to a range of 0%-0.1%. This means that today’s rate hike did little to narrow the US/Japan interest rate differential.
The BoJ’s announcement made huge headlines but at the end of the day the central bank kept a dovish tone, which also weighed on the yen. Governor Ueda stressed that the BoJ’s monetary policy will remain accommodative, even with the end of negative rates.
Ueda noted that “there is still some distance to 2%, which would require maintaining an accommodative policy”. This means that the BoJ will not be entering a tightening cycle with a series of hikes as we’ve seen with the other major central banks in their battle to tame inflation.
In the US, it’s a very light week, with no tier-1 events on the data calendar. The markets will be keeping a close eye on the Federal Reserve’s rate announcement on Wednesday. The Fed is virtually certain to maintain the benchmark rate of 5%-5.25%, and investors will be combing the rate statement for any insights about a date for an initial rate cut.
USD/JPY has pushed above resistance at 149.98, which was protecting the 150 line. Above, there is resistance at 150.92
148.24 and 147.30 are providing support
Levels discussed on Livestream March 19th
DXY: Consolidate along 103.80, with continuation to upside to 104.30
NZDUSD: Buy 0.6065 SL 20 TP 60 (Counter Trend)
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6535 SL 20 TP 55
USDJPY: Complete retracement, Break above resistance, Buy 150.95 SL 30 TP 90
GBPUSD: Sell 1.2685 SL 30 TP 80
EURUSD: Sell 1.0860 SL 20 TP 50
USDCHF: Buy 0.8905 SL 20 TP 55
USDCAD: Test and bounce off support Buy 0.13555 SL 20 TP 60
Gold: Below 2145 could trade down to 2125 (DXY strength dependent)
GBPJPY: Thoughts and Analysis Post-BOJToday's focus: GBPJPY
Pattern – Continuation/resistance test?
Support – 188.20
Resistance – 191.15
Hi, traders; thanks for tuning in for today's update. Today, we are looking at the GBPJPY daily.
The BOJ lifted rates today to 0.10%, breaking the run of negative rates and showing a change in direction not seen since 2007. The BOJ also advised an end to yield curve control and ETF purchases.
This had a negative effect on the JPY and sent majors higher. The GBPJPY has added up to 0.73% in today's session and has come close to testing resistance. We want to see a break of resistance to show a new continuation higher. A stall at resistance could set up a new move lower.
If we see a new move to 190 and above, could we see the BOJ step in?
Good trading.
Analysis of RBA, BOJ, FOMC, SNB, BOE and the week aheadWeek of the 18th March (H4)
DXY: Stay below 50% (103.70) to maintain bearish view, could trade down to 102.40 support
NZDUSD: Buy 0.61 SL 30 TP 100
AUDUSD: Buy 0.6580 SL 40 TP 80 (Tuesday: RBA Decision)
USDJPY: Riskier: Sell 148.50 SL 80 TP 200 (Tuesday: BOJ Policy Decision)
GBPUSD: Buy 1.2760 SL 50 TP 100 (Thursday:BOE Voting)
EURUSD: Sell 1.0860 SL 30 TP 60 (If DXY strengthens)
USDCHF: Sell 0.8860 SL 35 TP 105 (Thursday: SNB decision)
USDCAD: Buy 1.3455 SL 30 TP 13 (Tuesday: CPI data)
Gold: Bounce off 2150 to retest high of 2200