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AUDJPY: Big week for JPY Yen this weekThere's talk of the BoJ lifting the limit on yields to 1.5% from 1% this week, which would be a very strong catalyst for the Yen to start showing some strength. We can see that this pair does not have any direction at the moment, trading in a flag pattern, but I don't see this as either bullish or bearish at the moment. I'm not sure how or when or if to trade this but monitoring, my idea is based on BoJ protecting its currency generally, I am seeing the Aussie getting stronger so think we'll go up before coming back down, let's see...
Short
by Finchcliffe
USD/JPY edges lower, Tokyo Core CPI risesThe Japanese yen has steadied after three straight days of losses. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 150.11, down 0.19%. Tokyo Core CPI climbed 2.7% y/y in October, above 2.5% in September which was also the consensus estimate. The index, which excludes fresh food is a key indicator of inflation trends in Japan and is closely monitored by the Bank of Japan. Tokyo's headline CPI also rose in October, from 2.8% to 3.3%. The Bank of Japan will find it hard to ignore these hotter-than-expected inflation readings. The timing of these releases is awkward for the BoJ, which holds its policy meeting on Oct. 30-31. Underlying inflation is proving to be stickier than expected and BoJ policy makers may have to revise upwards their inflation outlooks for 2023 and 2024. High inflation is a risk to Japan's recovery, putting pressure on the BoJ to make some kind of move at the meeting. The central bank will have a busy agenda at next week's meeting. Aside from stubbornly high inflation, the BoJ will have to decide whether to tweak its yield curve control (YCC) program and what to do about the falling yen. The Japanese currency breached the symbolic 150 line this week for the first time since October 3rd, raising speculation that the BoJ could shift its policy or even intervene in the currency markets. Tokyo has responded to the yen breaching 150 with the usual verbal intervention, warning investors not to sell the yen. The BoJ won't be providing any advance warning about a currency intervention, so traders should remain on alert. For those doubting US exceptionalism, the superb US GDP of 4.9% in the third quarter was proof in the pudding of a robust US economy. This was the fastest growth rate since Q4 of 2021, boosted by strong consumer spending in the third quarter. The sharp rise in growth hasn't changed market expectations with regard to rates, which have priced in pauses at the November and December meetings. USD/JPY is testing support at 1.5017. Below, there is support at 149.67 There is resistance at 1.5049 and 1.5099
by OANDA
NZD slides against the Japanese YenThe New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is trading bearish against the Japanese Yen (JPY) at 87.386 on Friday, October 27, 2023, following comments from Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Taro Matsuno that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to conduct appropriate monetary policy. Matsuno's comments come amid rising expectations that the BoJ will eventually tighten monetary policy in response to rising inflation in Japan. The BoJ has been maintaining an ultra-loose monetary policy stance for many years, but this has led to a significant weakening of the JPY in recent months. The NZDJPY currency pair has been under pressure in recent weeks as investors have priced in the possibility of a more hawkish BoJ. The pair has fallen by over 5% since the start of October. The bearish outlook for NZDJPY is further supported by the technical outlook. The pair has broken below a key support level at 88.00, and is now on track to test the next support level at 86.50. Factors Weighing on NZDJPY There are a number of factors weighing on NZDJPY at present, including: Expectations of BoJ tightening: The BoJ is expected to be one of the last major central banks to tighten monetary policy, which is putting downward pressure on the JPY. Rising inflation in Japan: Japan's inflation rate has been rising in recent months, which is putting pressure on the BoJ to tighten monetary policy. Global risk aversion: Global investors are currently risk averse, which is leading to a sell-off in riskier assets such as the NZD. Weak New Zealand economic data: The New Zealand economy has been slowing in recent months, which is weighing on the NZD. Technical Outlook for NZDJPY The technical outlook for NZDJPY is bearish. The pair has broken below a key support level at 88.00, and is now on track to test the next support level at 86.50. If NZDJPY breaks below 86.50, it could fall to 85.00 or even lower. Trading Strategy Traders who are bearish on NZDJPY could consider shorting the pair at current levels. A stop loss could be placed above the recent high at 88.00. A profit target could be placed at 86.50 or 85.00. It is important to note that the foreign exchange market is volatile and prices can move quickly. Traders should always use risk management techniques when trading currencies.
Short
by masterclass618
USDJPY: Thoughts and Analysis Today's focus: USDJPY Pattern – Ascending Triangle Break (BoJ Intervention?) Support – 149.28 - 148.43 Resistance – 149.90 - 150.16 Hi, and thanks for checking out today's update. Today, we are looking at the USDJPY on the daily chart. Speculation continues as to whether we will see intervention from the BoJ as the USDJPY continues to trade above 150. Currently, the breakout of an ascending triangle pattern yesterday continues to confirm today as buyers continue the run above 149.90 resistance and 150. Pricewise, things look firm on the buyer side, but will we see any surprises today with BoJ intervention? Last time price was above 150, we saw a 1.75% decline. Could another round be on the cards if prices contnue to push higher? Good trading.
by Eightcap
USDJPY: The Short - when??I think that retail traders in the main are expecting this pair to crash from 150, I have been, and it may well do (as per my related idea below)... Commentators and past experience suggests that the BoJ will intervene around 150 to 151.5 because they have to, due to the debt relationship with the USA, they're stuck between a rock and a hard place. We all know what happens when retailers think they know best...I'm starting to think that we'll push higher to 154 before the dump. I think the current global conflict will help the USD get there, but that level will be unsustainable for Japan so will come back down with a bang. In the meantime I'm still day trading up and down and catching some moves on this pair, but I'm starting to think the big one is a little way off yet, let's see...
Short
by Finchcliffe
USDJPY nearing 150 again! Overview USDJPY is nearing the 150 handle again. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) may intervene, creating lucrative JPY buying opportunities. The Details The Yen is weakening. The JPY Currency Index ( TVC:JXY ) has the Yen at all-time lows. The last time the Yen was this weak was in September and October 2022; the BOJ intervened in the FX markets to strengthen the Yen—sharp moves of 500 pips formed in hours! USDJPY is back at the 2022 intervention levels. On the 3rd of October 2023, it is suspected that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) intervened to strengthen the Yen, which formed the 'BOOM' move identified on my chart. The intervention caused a bearish move of 300 pips. In the coming days, USDJPY may reach the 150 handle again. The BOJ has two options: Further Intervention - The BOJ may continue with FX intervention. This could bring a bullish shock to the Yen, especially USDJPY, like in October 2022. Expect a move of 400 to 600 pips to the downside on USDJPY. Maybe more. Maybe less. This could be followed by further JPY buying. Interest rates - The BOJ may move away from negative interest rates. A rate change is BIG news for the Yen. Possibly, the Nikkei also. This is significant because monetary policy shifts from negative to zero or even negative to positive rates. This change could end the JPY selling and mark highs on the USDJPY chart. Either option, the JPY weakness, especially short-term, is ending. Things to consider: Beware of slippage. The initial move will likely be quick and sharp, causing significant slippage on JPY orders. If you catch the wrong side of the move, you could blow your trading account if you are over-leveraged and over-exposed. The swap rate on holding the Yen is terrible, especially USDJPY. So, USDJPY Put Options or trading the JPY currency index may be better than spot FX. Excessive and volatile moves against the Yen could be the catalyst that brings intervention rather than USDJPY reaching critical levels. USDJPY may reach the 155 handle before the BOJ take action. My area of focus is 150 to 155.
Short
by Samuel_Morton_Trader
7
AUDJPY: Is this the start of the reversal?We saw some JPY strength last week and I think we could be starting to see reversal, however my confirmation of this will be below 93 support. Even though BoJ hasn't intervened yet, there was a lot of buying in the week which we saw against the USD, I still expect BoJ intervention soon. Nice pinbar rejection on the 4HR from my resistance block. Looking for a short here on LTF's, but with tight SL and will keep it following any move down.
Short
by Finchcliffe
EURJPY: Finally ready to reverse?EURJPY has been hanging around 157 - 157.5 range for some time, we saw a break below last week which quickly recovered, but we've broken back below now so I expect a stronger push back down to the low of last week (caused by JPY buying). With price action there was also a failure to make a new high, we saw a short pinbar on the 4HR before we broke back below my resistance block. I see this happening again as the BoJ look to defend their currency, I'm expecting JPY to start to perform well across the board - they may not provide any interest but their inflation is low and their economic performance is looking ok to me to, and also money flows and so a reversal should be coming soon. I also think the EURO is in trouble, with stagflation, this will lead to recession imo and will hit the EURO so this is one of the JPY crosses I'm expecting big declining moves from.
Short
by Finchcliffe
Yen Drops Below 150 Per Dollar - Exercise Caution in TradingThe Japanese yen has recently dropped below the critical threshold of 150 per dollar, primarily due to mounting concerns regarding intervention measures. In light of this situation, I strongly urge you to exercise caution and consider pausing yen trading until further clarification is obtained. The sudden decline in the yen's value has raised concerns among market participants, as it suggests the possibility of intervention by the Japanese government or central bank. Intervention refers to deliberate actions taken by authorities to influence their currency's exchange rate, typically through buying or selling large amounts of their own currency in the foreign exchange market. Such interventions can have a profound impact on the currency's value and create significant volatility in the market. Given the uncertainty surrounding the current situation, it is prudent to reassess our trading strategies and ensure that we are not unnecessarily exposed to potential risks. Therefore, I strongly recommend that you temporarily halt yen trading until we receive further guidance or clarification from reliable sources regarding any potential intervention measures. In the meantime, I encourage you to closely monitor the latest news and market developments related to the yen. Stay informed about any official statements or actions from the Japanese government or central bank, as these can provide valuable insights into the future direction of the currency. Additionally, consider diversifying your portfolio to reduce reliance on yen-based assets until the situation stabilizes. Please remember that our primary objective is to protect our investments and mitigate risk. By exercising caution and temporarily pausing yen trading, we can better position ourselves to navigate the current market uncertainties and make informed decisions when clarity emerges. If you have any questions or require further guidance, please do not hesitate to reach out to me or our dedicated support team. We are here to assist you and ensure that you have the necessary information to make well-informed trading decisions.
by bryandowningqln
11
So this happened on the USDJPY overnightThe USDJPY crept over the 150 price level before crashing down almost 300 pips to retest the 22nd September swing low and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at the 147.40 price level. Eventually, the price settled along the 149 price level and back within the bullish channel. The 150 price level is significant as it was likely the BoJ's price level for an intervention. This move could be viewed as the first stealth intervention as the Ministry of Finance did not confirm the intervention. Is this going to be a repeat of the series of BoJ interventions we saw in October 2022?
Long
by JinDao_Tai
1
USDJPY: My next 2 moves as I expect BoJ to defend their currencyI'm expecting USDJPY to carry on meandering towards the 150 mark, and it's at this level that we've previously seen BoJ step in to defend their currency, We saw the same in June / July 2022, and I think we'll see it again. BoJ has started hinting at a change to monetary policy for the first time in a long time, we saw a very small reaction in the past week to this, but right now the dollar is too strong for this to have made a difference. I'm expecting DXY to retrace from current levels and this cross could be a big beneficiary if BoJ do what I think, it's always good to trade strength against weakness. There could well be some little long scalp opportunities for me (with very very tight SL's moving to BE asap) on the way up to 150 (within the rising wedge) as that's still some good pips away, but for me the bigger moves now will be to the downside. I'm not planning on getting caught with any longs up here... This is a big news week for this pair with FOMC on Wednesday and BoJ interest rate decision and conference Friday, will be interesting to see how this all pans out ahead of these fundamentals, but beyond them I'm expecting things to play out as per this idea. I've plotted two moves, first from the 150 ish mark down to support, and then another sell down to the rising long term trendline.
Short
by Finchcliffe
2
USD/JPY rebounds, US GDP, Tokyo Core CPI nextThe Japanese yen has stemmed a 3-day slide, in which it declined around 1.5% against the US dollar. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 149.31, down 0.23%. In the US, third estimate GDP for the second quarter is expected to be revised lower to 2.1%. Japan will release Tokyo Core CPI on Friday. The core rate, a key inflation gauge, is expected to ease to 2.6% y/y in August, down from 2.8% y/y in September. Core inflation has remained above the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target for 15 consecutive months, which seems to indicate broad inflationary pressure. Still, Governor Ueda has said he will not phase out massive monetary stimulus, arguing that wages need to rise in order ensure that inflation remains sustainable around 2%. Japan's weak economy is making it easier for the BoJ to maintain its ultra-easy policy, and Friday's inflation release won't change the BoJ's stance. The Japanese yen has paid the price for the BoJ's insistence on maintaining an ultra-loose policy and has had only one winning week against the dollar since July. The US/Japan rate differential continues to rise as Japanese yields stay put while US Treasury yields continue to move higher. USD/JPY is close to the 150 line and could breach it shortly. This will put pressure on Tokyo to intervene in the currency markets to prop up the ailing Japanese currency. The US dollar is having an off day against the major currencies on Thursday, but the greenback has looked sharp against the majors lately. The markets are concerned that interest rates could remain higher for longer, as the US economy has been showing signs of resilience. Oil prices have hit $93 and are contributing to higher inflation - In August, US CPI rose from 3.3% to .3.7%. The futures markets have priced in a rate hike before the end of the year at 36.5%, which means the markets are uncertain if interest rates have peaked. There is resistance at 149.19 and 149.93 USD/JPY tested support at 148.79 earlier. Below, there is support at 148.05
by OANDA
CADJPY: Cheeky Scalp 1:3 with tight SLWe can see CADJPY rejected off the ascending channel and horizontal resistance confluence. I think we'll retest following a bounce off the lower boundary, especially seeing how oil is doing and today's CAD data. I'm really mindful of the end of week BoJ news as I think this could cause some reversals based on recent BoJ fundamentals and historic moves to protect the currency in International markets, but there's time left this week and so picking up pips where I feel safe, ahead of the news.
Long
by Finchcliffe
USD/JPY drifting as Fed decision loomsThe Japanese yen continues to have a quiet week. In Wednesday's North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 147.66, down 0.15%. If the Federal Reserve does not pause rate hikes at today's meeting, it would be a massive surprise. Still, that doesn't mean that investors aren't paying close attention. There is particular interest as to whether the dot plot projections in June will remain the same. Those projections indicated one more hike before the end of the year and a cut in rates in 2024 to the tune of 100 basis points. Any change in the dot plot could trigger volatility from the US dollar. It has been a light week for Japanese releases, which helps explain why the Japanese yen has shown very little volatility. That could change with the Federal Reserve rate decision later today. The yen could show some stronger movement on Friday, with the release of Japan's core CPI and the Bank of Japan policy meeting. The Bank of Japan has insisted that inflation is transient, yet core inflation has hovered above the BoJ's 2% target for seventeen consecutive months. That streak is likely to continue on Friday, with core CPI expected at 3.0% y/y for August, compared to 3.1% in July. The core-core CPI, which excludes fresh food and energy, is expected to accelerate to 4.4% y/y in August, up from 4.3% in July. High inflation has put pressure on the BoJ to consider a shift from its ultra-loose policy, and there have been a few signals from BoJ members that the central bank is examining a possible exit. This has raised speculation about interest rate hikes in early 2o24, although that could be wishful thinking on the part of some market participants, as a rate hike would be nothing short of a sea-change in BoJ monetary policy. The Bank of Japan meets on Friday and no shift in policy is expected. Still, BoJ meetings have gone from dull affairs to potential huge market movers and investors will be listening closely to Governor Ueda's follow-up press conference, especially on inflation. Will Ueda stick to the narrative that inflation is transient or will he acknowledge that inflation is showing signs of being substantive? There is support at 147.24, and 146.52 148.56 and 149.28 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Understanding Interest-rates & InflationHey Traders So, I have been asked by many of my clients to explain the relationship between interest-rates and inflation and how to translate that information into their analysis. For this reason I put this little mini lesson together to explain: - The core role of the central bank - Reason and objectives for interest-rates and inflation - How you can use this information to enhance your analysis - How to take advantage of this info when taking, managing or closing your trades. PS. if you would like me to do more of these types of videos be sure to leave a comment in the comment section.
TVC:DXYEducation
by DeanMuller
USDJPY: Thoughts and AnalysisToday's focus: USDJPY Pattern – Ascending Triangle Pattern Support – 146.50 - 144.75 Resistance – 147.92 Thanks for checking out today's update. Today, we have run over USDJPY, breaking down the overall price picture, levels, and patterns and incorporating moving average and RSI into the analysis. The USDSJPY continues to be locked up in a bullish continuation pattern. If we see a break above this pattern, we are interested in how buyers handle being back into a supply and resistance area. An area that stopped the last main rally. On top of that, the RSI is also showing lower highs as price has made higher highs. This could be a sign of divergence, but we will continue to watch if buyers can make a higher breakout. If we see a break lower, we will look to 146.50 and 144.75 as potential support areas. Heads up: BOJ policy rate and policy statement are due on Friday. Have a great day and good trading.
Long
by Eightcap
AUDJPY: Expecting a strong start to the week before BoJI'm expecting continued Aussie strength as the market expects China recovery is in progress. BoJ interest rate and minutes will be big news on Friday, but before then I expect to see a continuation up within the current rising channel, breaking and retest initial support around 95.6 to rise to test the 96.6 support. We're heading into very choppy waters now, and I expect BoJ to start defending their currency so I'm mindful to have very tight SL's up here, moving to BE as soon as possible and ultimately preparing for a reversal, but I think there's a little way to go yet. With Aussie building momentum I feel confident in still being long here, but being uber-careful as you never know what will happen!
Long
by Finchcliffe
2
USD/JPY overreacts to rate hike signal from BoJ? A huge gap in USD/JPY has appeared to start the week after comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda about a possible end to its negative interest rate policy (NIRP). In a Saturday Yomiuri newspaper interview, Governor Ueda mentioned that by the end of the year, the BOJ could accumulate enough data to assess whether the conditions are present to raise interest rates. Ueda comments follow a series of hawkish comments by BOJ officials in recent weeks amid inflationary pressures within Japan. On Monday morning, USD/JPY retreated from its 10-month peak of 147.87. It traded down to 145.89, found resistance just below 147.00, before finding a home around 146.56. Is the market overreacting to Ueda’s comments though? His talk of an exit doesn’t suggest any big changes to monetary policy this year at least, and moving from –0.10% to non-negative rate is symbolically important, but the BoJ (Bank of Japan) rate is still 5 percentage points behind the Fed’s. Knowing this, would you be surprised if the USD/JPY begins its assent again? US CPI (Consumer Price Index) data out this Wednesday could be a catalyst for the pair to target 147.00 again, depending on whether price pressures rise more than expected (currently the consensus is for a rise from the current 3.2% to 3.5%)
by BlackBull_Markets
The Yen Bull-Bomb is Ticking!JPY continues to be sold. USDJPY is nearing the previous intervention area of 148-151. The BOJ needs to do something. They are starting to feel the squeeze. Today, the bomb started to tick. The BOJ has suggested they will do all possible to strengthen the Yen. They have two significant weapons: intervention and interest rates. Intervention - This will bring an initial bullish shock to JPY pairs, like in October 2022. This could see a 400-600 pip move on USDJPY. Followed by a short-term retrace move. In November 2022, this retrace move was 2000 pips. Interest rates - A rate change is BIG news for the Yen. Possibly, the Nikkei also. This is significant because monetary policy shifts from negative to zero or positive rates. This change could end the JPY selling. A change in monetary policy may be enough to reverse the Yen. Intervention may not be needed. The JPY could weaken further before the BOJ steps in. Price may even reach highs of 152+, but the bomb is now ticking. The ball has started to roll. Today marks the beginning of the end. Prepare for some manic JPY buying. I traded the last BOJ intervention. My timing was off twice (I was too early), but I caught the intervention move third time lucky. It resulted in my most profitable FX option trade to date. DO look to trade this. BEWARE of the downside risk on ***JPY pairs. EXPECT slippage if you are short the Yen when and if intervention kicks in.
Short
by Samuel_Morton_Trader