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AUDJPY: Is this the start of the reversal?We saw some JPY strength last week and I think we could be starting to see reversal, however my confirmation of this will be below 93 support. Even though BoJ hasn't intervened yet, there was a lot of buying in the week which we saw against the USD, I still expect BoJ intervention soon. Nice pinbar rejection on the 4HR from my resistance block. Looking for a short here on LTF's, but with tight SL and will keep it following any move down.
Short
by Finchcliffe
EURJPY: Finally ready to reverse?EURJPY has been hanging around 157 - 157.5 range for some time, we saw a break below last week which quickly recovered, but we've broken back below now so I expect a stronger push back down to the low of last week (caused by JPY buying). With price action there was also a failure to make a new high, we saw a short pinbar on the 4HR before we broke back below my resistance block. I see this happening again as the BoJ look to defend their currency, I'm expecting JPY to start to perform well across the board - they may not provide any interest but their inflation is low and their economic performance is looking ok to me to, and also money flows and so a reversal should be coming soon. I also think the EURO is in trouble, with stagflation, this will lead to recession imo and will hit the EURO so this is one of the JPY crosses I'm expecting big declining moves from.
Short
by Finchcliffe
Yen Drops Below 150 Per Dollar - Exercise Caution in TradingThe Japanese yen has recently dropped below the critical threshold of 150 per dollar, primarily due to mounting concerns regarding intervention measures. In light of this situation, I strongly urge you to exercise caution and consider pausing yen trading until further clarification is obtained. The sudden decline in the yen's value has raised concerns among market participants, as it suggests the possibility of intervention by the Japanese government or central bank. Intervention refers to deliberate actions taken by authorities to influence their currency's exchange rate, typically through buying or selling large amounts of their own currency in the foreign exchange market. Such interventions can have a profound impact on the currency's value and create significant volatility in the market. Given the uncertainty surrounding the current situation, it is prudent to reassess our trading strategies and ensure that we are not unnecessarily exposed to potential risks. Therefore, I strongly recommend that you temporarily halt yen trading until we receive further guidance or clarification from reliable sources regarding any potential intervention measures. In the meantime, I encourage you to closely monitor the latest news and market developments related to the yen. Stay informed about any official statements or actions from the Japanese government or central bank, as these can provide valuable insights into the future direction of the currency. Additionally, consider diversifying your portfolio to reduce reliance on yen-based assets until the situation stabilizes. Please remember that our primary objective is to protect our investments and mitigate risk. By exercising caution and temporarily pausing yen trading, we can better position ourselves to navigate the current market uncertainties and make informed decisions when clarity emerges. If you have any questions or require further guidance, please do not hesitate to reach out to me or our dedicated support team. We are here to assist you and ensure that you have the necessary information to make well-informed trading decisions.
by bryandowningqln
11
So this happened on the USDJPY overnightThe USDJPY crept over the 150 price level before crashing down almost 300 pips to retest the 22nd September swing low and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at the 147.40 price level. Eventually, the price settled along the 149 price level and back within the bullish channel. The 150 price level is significant as it was likely the BoJ's price level for an intervention. This move could be viewed as the first stealth intervention as the Ministry of Finance did not confirm the intervention. Is this going to be a repeat of the series of BoJ interventions we saw in October 2022?
Long
by JinDao_Tai
1
USDJPY: My next 2 moves as I expect BoJ to defend their currencyI'm expecting USDJPY to carry on meandering towards the 150 mark, and it's at this level that we've previously seen BoJ step in to defend their currency, We saw the same in June / July 2022, and I think we'll see it again. BoJ has started hinting at a change to monetary policy for the first time in a long time, we saw a very small reaction in the past week to this, but right now the dollar is too strong for this to have made a difference. I'm expecting DXY to retrace from current levels and this cross could be a big beneficiary if BoJ do what I think, it's always good to trade strength against weakness. There could well be some little long scalp opportunities for me (with very very tight SL's moving to BE asap) on the way up to 150 (within the rising wedge) as that's still some good pips away, but for me the bigger moves now will be to the downside. I'm not planning on getting caught with any longs up here... This is a big news week for this pair with FOMC on Wednesday and BoJ interest rate decision and conference Friday, will be interesting to see how this all pans out ahead of these fundamentals, but beyond them I'm expecting things to play out as per this idea. I've plotted two moves, first from the 150 ish mark down to support, and then another sell down to the rising long term trendline.
Short
by Finchcliffe
2
USD/JPY rebounds, US GDP, Tokyo Core CPI nextThe Japanese yen has stemmed a 3-day slide, in which it declined around 1.5% against the US dollar. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 149.31, down 0.23%. In the US, third estimate GDP for the second quarter is expected to be revised lower to 2.1%. Japan will release Tokyo Core CPI on Friday. The core rate, a key inflation gauge, is expected to ease to 2.6% y/y in August, down from 2.8% y/y in September. Core inflation has remained above the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target for 15 consecutive months, which seems to indicate broad inflationary pressure. Still, Governor Ueda has said he will not phase out massive monetary stimulus, arguing that wages need to rise in order ensure that inflation remains sustainable around 2%. Japan's weak economy is making it easier for the BoJ to maintain its ultra-easy policy, and Friday's inflation release won't change the BoJ's stance. The Japanese yen has paid the price for the BoJ's insistence on maintaining an ultra-loose policy and has had only one winning week against the dollar since July. The US/Japan rate differential continues to rise as Japanese yields stay put while US Treasury yields continue to move higher. USD/JPY is close to the 150 line and could breach it shortly. This will put pressure on Tokyo to intervene in the currency markets to prop up the ailing Japanese currency. The US dollar is having an off day against the major currencies on Thursday, but the greenback has looked sharp against the majors lately. The markets are concerned that interest rates could remain higher for longer, as the US economy has been showing signs of resilience. Oil prices have hit $93 and are contributing to higher inflation - In August, US CPI rose from 3.3% to .3.7%. The futures markets have priced in a rate hike before the end of the year at 36.5%, which means the markets are uncertain if interest rates have peaked. There is resistance at 149.19 and 149.93 USD/JPY tested support at 148.79 earlier. Below, there is support at 148.05
by OANDA
CADJPY: Cheeky Scalp 1:3 with tight SLWe can see CADJPY rejected off the ascending channel and horizontal resistance confluence. I think we'll retest following a bounce off the lower boundary, especially seeing how oil is doing and today's CAD data. I'm really mindful of the end of week BoJ news as I think this could cause some reversals based on recent BoJ fundamentals and historic moves to protect the currency in International markets, but there's time left this week and so picking up pips where I feel safe, ahead of the news.
Long
by Finchcliffe
USD/JPY drifting as Fed decision loomsThe Japanese yen continues to have a quiet week. In Wednesday's North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 147.66, down 0.15%. If the Federal Reserve does not pause rate hikes at today's meeting, it would be a massive surprise. Still, that doesn't mean that investors aren't paying close attention. There is particular interest as to whether the dot plot projections in June will remain the same. Those projections indicated one more hike before the end of the year and a cut in rates in 2024 to the tune of 100 basis points. Any change in the dot plot could trigger volatility from the US dollar. It has been a light week for Japanese releases, which helps explain why the Japanese yen has shown very little volatility. That could change with the Federal Reserve rate decision later today. The yen could show some stronger movement on Friday, with the release of Japan's core CPI and the Bank of Japan policy meeting. The Bank of Japan has insisted that inflation is transient, yet core inflation has hovered above the BoJ's 2% target for seventeen consecutive months. That streak is likely to continue on Friday, with core CPI expected at 3.0% y/y for August, compared to 3.1% in July. The core-core CPI, which excludes fresh food and energy, is expected to accelerate to 4.4% y/y in August, up from 4.3% in July. High inflation has put pressure on the BoJ to consider a shift from its ultra-loose policy, and there have been a few signals from BoJ members that the central bank is examining a possible exit. This has raised speculation about interest rate hikes in early 2o24, although that could be wishful thinking on the part of some market participants, as a rate hike would be nothing short of a sea-change in BoJ monetary policy. The Bank of Japan meets on Friday and no shift in policy is expected. Still, BoJ meetings have gone from dull affairs to potential huge market movers and investors will be listening closely to Governor Ueda's follow-up press conference, especially on inflation. Will Ueda stick to the narrative that inflation is transient or will he acknowledge that inflation is showing signs of being substantive? There is support at 147.24, and 146.52 148.56 and 149.28 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Understanding Interest-rates & InflationHey Traders So, I have been asked by many of my clients to explain the relationship between interest-rates and inflation and how to translate that information into their analysis. For this reason I put this little mini lesson together to explain: - The core role of the central bank - Reason and objectives for interest-rates and inflation - How you can use this information to enhance your analysis - How to take advantage of this info when taking, managing or closing your trades. PS. if you would like me to do more of these types of videos be sure to leave a comment in the comment section.
TVC:DXYEducation
by DeanMuller
USDJPY: Thoughts and AnalysisToday's focus: USDJPY Pattern – Ascending Triangle Pattern Support – 146.50 - 144.75 Resistance – 147.92 Thanks for checking out today's update. Today, we have run over USDJPY, breaking down the overall price picture, levels, and patterns and incorporating moving average and RSI into the analysis. The USDSJPY continues to be locked up in a bullish continuation pattern. If we see a break above this pattern, we are interested in how buyers handle being back into a supply and resistance area. An area that stopped the last main rally. On top of that, the RSI is also showing lower highs as price has made higher highs. This could be a sign of divergence, but we will continue to watch if buyers can make a higher breakout. If we see a break lower, we will look to 146.50 and 144.75 as potential support areas. Heads up: BOJ policy rate and policy statement are due on Friday. Have a great day and good trading.
Long
by Eightcap
AUDJPY: Expecting a strong start to the week before BoJI'm expecting continued Aussie strength as the market expects China recovery is in progress. BoJ interest rate and minutes will be big news on Friday, but before then I expect to see a continuation up within the current rising channel, breaking and retest initial support around 95.6 to rise to test the 96.6 support. We're heading into very choppy waters now, and I expect BoJ to start defending their currency so I'm mindful to have very tight SL's up here, moving to BE as soon as possible and ultimately preparing for a reversal, but I think there's a little way to go yet. With Aussie building momentum I feel confident in still being long here, but being uber-careful as you never know what will happen!
Long
by Finchcliffe
2
USD/JPY overreacts to rate hike signal from BoJ? A huge gap in USD/JPY has appeared to start the week after comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda about a possible end to its negative interest rate policy (NIRP). In a Saturday Yomiuri newspaper interview, Governor Ueda mentioned that by the end of the year, the BOJ could accumulate enough data to assess whether the conditions are present to raise interest rates. Ueda comments follow a series of hawkish comments by BOJ officials in recent weeks amid inflationary pressures within Japan. On Monday morning, USD/JPY retreated from its 10-month peak of 147.87. It traded down to 145.89, found resistance just below 147.00, before finding a home around 146.56. Is the market overreacting to Ueda’s comments though? His talk of an exit doesn’t suggest any big changes to monetary policy this year at least, and moving from –0.10% to non-negative rate is symbolically important, but the BoJ (Bank of Japan) rate is still 5 percentage points behind the Fed’s. Knowing this, would you be surprised if the USD/JPY begins its assent again? US CPI (Consumer Price Index) data out this Wednesday could be a catalyst for the pair to target 147.00 again, depending on whether price pressures rise more than expected (currently the consensus is for a rise from the current 3.2% to 3.5%)
by BlackBull_Markets
The Yen Bull-Bomb is Ticking!JPY continues to be sold. USDJPY is nearing the previous intervention area of 148-151. The BOJ needs to do something. They are starting to feel the squeeze. Today, the bomb started to tick. The BOJ has suggested they will do all possible to strengthen the Yen. They have two significant weapons: intervention and interest rates. Intervention - This will bring an initial bullish shock to JPY pairs, like in October 2022. This could see a 400-600 pip move on USDJPY. Followed by a short-term retrace move. In November 2022, this retrace move was 2000 pips. Interest rates - A rate change is BIG news for the Yen. Possibly, the Nikkei also. This is significant because monetary policy shifts from negative to zero or positive rates. This change could end the JPY selling. A change in monetary policy may be enough to reverse the Yen. Intervention may not be needed. The JPY could weaken further before the BOJ steps in. Price may even reach highs of 152+, but the bomb is now ticking. The ball has started to roll. Today marks the beginning of the end. Prepare for some manic JPY buying. I traded the last BOJ intervention. My timing was off twice (I was too early), but I caught the intervention move third time lucky. It resulted in my most profitable FX option trade to date. DO look to trade this. BEWARE of the downside risk on ***JPY pairs. EXPECT slippage if you are short the Yen when and if intervention kicks in.
Short
by Samuel_Morton_Trader
USD/JPY -On its way to a Safe Short- We've seen USD/JPY uptrending for what will be the fifth (5) consecutive Weekly Green Candelstick prints. Some cool of may occurr in terms of price action, further due for correction ? Lots of Higher Highs levels as Support from below Looking from the left, a Weekly Supply Zone can be spotted ; (you can refer it as a *W OB). As well coinciding with the fact of approaching Resistance Trendline of Ascending Channel Pattern (a.k.a Bearish Flag). Short-Bearish case Opportunities are on its way for USD/JPY. Bullish case would be the breakout of pattern through above average volume and the Supply Zone being broken. This would invalidate the Short Opportunities idea for $USD/JPY Until the next one; TRADE SAFE *** NOTE that this is not Financial Advice ! Please do your own research and consult your own Financial Advisor before even considering partaking on any Trading Acitivity based solely on this Idea.
Short
by Mr_J__fx
Expecting an intervention from the Central Bank of JapanLook at those beautiful channels for $FX:USDJPY. Last year, we had a strong uptrend from 115 to 151, and the central bank had to intervene strongly. We see another uptrend this year as well. There is a fight between the market and the central bank. BoJ had to make a move when the price reached to 144. But it seems market wants to push higher this. We potentially see another intervention around 148. Disclaimer – WhaleGambit. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
by WhaleGambit
Why USD/JPY bulls should be cautious at these highsUSD/JPY has continued to defy gravity despite the growing threat of verbal (or actual) yen intervention by the MOF/BOJ. Yet the higher and faster it rises, so does the threat of intervention. You can see what impact it had on USD/JPY from the large bearish candle that formed on 23 October 2022, where the initial break above 150 was then met with a swift move lower and subsequent -16.3% decline over the next 2.5 months. However, what has caught our eye today is that recent cycle highs have stalled around the 10 October high, the day a softer-than-expected US inflation report saw the US dollar plunge. There is also a volume node from the choppy price action in October at 147.1, and such HVNs can act as both a magnet to attract prices and also become support/resistance. And given USD/JPY’s recent pattern of breaking key levels and cycle highs before reversing, we’re a little sceptical of bullish breakouts – especially with the growing threat of verbal/actual intervention. Furthermore, the US02Y-JP02Y spread has stalled just beneath its March high, so perhaps USD/JPY is at least due a pullback before it tries to break higher. Either way, we’d prefer to buy dips over breakouts. And as for any potential pullback, we’d prefer to wait for a breakout to become a ‘fakeout’ (where prices move back below the initial breakout level) before shorting against the trend.
by CityIndex
Unraveling Dollar Yen's Trading MazeHey there, traders! 🌟 Let's delve into the tricky landscape of dollar yen – a setup that demands our attention. The overarching trend suggests a bullish journey, but buckle up, because there are twists ahead. 📈 News flashes about the potential Bank of Japan (BOJ) intervention and the recent wastewater stir have stirred the pot. 🌊⚖️ For the conservative trader, a week of observation might be prudent. But for those risk-savvy, why not seize the day? When big news lurks, colossal movement follows, and with the right risk management, why not chase those opportunities? 💼💰 Gazing at the weekly chart, we spot a retest at the previous high – a pivotal zone for the week. The tantalizing prospect of a break and close above this high tantalizes for a continued rally. But guess what? Immediate resistance lurks nearby. 🛑📊 In the grand scheme, to sustain a bullish trajectory, the magic number is 152.02 on the weekly chart. 🚀 Shifting to daily charts, the high gets retested with a sly RSI divergence – a whisper of counter trend play, perhaps? Now, for the four-hour setup, a familiar pattern – retest, RSI divergence – all hinting at an intriguing possibility. And guess what? The one-hour chart mirrors this with its own RSI divergence dance. 🎭📉 For the curious minds eager to learn trading nuances. Now, let's revisit our trusty weekly chart and unfurl our analysis on Dollar Yen. A bearish bat pattern beckons a shorting venture at 149.40. Daily chart enthusiasts, the confirmation for crab pattern enthusiasts swings by at 150.45. Are you eyeing a buy? Retest the immediate support at 144.65 for a potential entrance. Zooming into the four-hour chart, ABCD pattern aficionados can keep an eye on 147.79 for counter trading maneuvers. Buying prospects? 144.62 or 144.02 could be your calling. Remember, when the market respects these levels and avoids sinking further, it signals the support's sturdy stance. 🏗️ And oh, the sweet RSI divergence on the one-hour chart – a touch of icing on our trading cake. Once 146.55 gets a respectful tap, I'll be diving into an aggressive counter trade. 🚀
Short
by RaynLim
6
USD/JPY breaks above 146, Tokyo Core CPI dips to 2.8%USD/JPY has posted small gains on Friday, enough to push above the symbolic 146 line. On the data calendar, Tokyo Core CPI dipped lower and Fed Chair Powell addresses the Jackson Hole Symposium later today. Japan released the Tokyo Core CPI earlier today. This is the first inflation release of the month, making it a key event. In August, Tokyo Core CPI rose 2.8% y/y, down from 3.0% in July and just under the consensus estimate of 2.9%. Despite the drop in inflation, the indicator has remained above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for some fifteen months. Earlier in the month, the so-called "core-core index", which excludes fresh food and energy, remained at 4.0%. This points to broad inflationary pressure and raises questions about the BoJ's insistence that inflation is transient. The BoJ has said it will not exit its ultra-loose monetary policy until wage growth rises enough to keep inflation sustainable around 2%. Still, the markets have been burned before by the BoJ making unexpected moves and are on guard for the BoJ tightening policy, especially with the yen at very low levels. The markets are keeping a close eye on the Jackson Hole symposium, with Fed Chair Powell and BoJ Governor Ueda both attending. Powell delivers a key speech on Friday and Ueda will participate in a panel discussion on Saturday. If either one provides insights into future rate policy, it could mean some volatility from USD/JPY on Monday. What does the Fed have planned? That depends on which Fed member is addressing the media. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said on Thursday that he didn't see a need to raise rates further, absent any unexpectedly poor data, but added that the Fed wouldn't be lowering rates anytime soon.  However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said that rate increases might still be necessary. The Fed is likely to pause at the September meeting, but what happens after that is unclear. USD/JPY is facing resistance at 146.41, followed by 147.44 There is support at 145.54 and 144.51
by OANDA
Inflation Wears Out Its Welcome in JapanHas anybody ever told you to be careful what you wish for because you might get it? Well, the Bank of Japan appears to be in one of those situations today. Japan spent three decades oscillating into and out of deflation. As such, when inflation started to rise in 2022, the BOJ was initially thrilled. Finally deflation was coming to an end, and inflation was heading up to a target of 2.5%. The problem is that inflation didn’t stop heading higher at 2.5%. It’s now up to 4.2% excluding fresh food and energy. In a nation with a large elderly population where many people are on fixed incomes, having inflation too high is just as bad has having it too low. But why should the rest of the world care what happens to Japan’s inflation rate? For starters, Japan has the world’s fourth largest economy, and what happens to the yen and to Japanese bond yields is of worldwide consequence. Beginning in 2012, the BoJ launched a mega quantitative easing program – four times bigger than what the Federal Reserve did relative to the respective size of their economy. This QE program sent the yen plunging as the BoJ also capped 10-year Japanese government bond yields. But recently, they have softened the cap, sending not only Japanese bond yields higher but raising the cost of long-term borrowings all around the world, including in the United States and Europe. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group *Various CME Group affiliates are regulated entities with corresponding obligations and rights pursuant to financial services regulations in a number of jurisdictions. Further details of CME Group's regulatory status and full disclaimer of liability in accordance with applicable law are available below. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
TVC:JP10YEducation
by CME_Group
USD/JPY punches above 146, BoJ inflation nextThe Japanese yen has posted significant losses on Monday. USD/JPY is trading at 146.23 in the North American session, up 0.57% on the day. The US dollar has looked sharp and is within a whisker of pushing the yen below the 146 line, as was the case last week when the strong US dollar pushed the ailing yen to a nine-month low. The Japanese economy was once synonymous with deflation, but that has changed in the era of high global inflation. Japan's inflation is slightly above 3%, a level that other major central banks would take in a heartbeat. Still, inflation is relatively high by Japanese standards and both headline and core inflation have persistently been above the Bank of Japan's 2% target. Japan's inflation reports are carefully monitored as higher inflation has raised speculation that the BoJ will have to tighten its loose policy. The central bank has insisted that high inflation is transient, but the BoJ wouldn't be the first bank to make that claim and then backtrack with its tail between its legs. Remember the Fed and the ECB? Last week, July's CPI remained unchanged at 3.3% y/y. Core CPI dropped to 3.1% y/y, down from 3.3%. On Tuesday, Japan releases BoJ Core CPI, the central bank's preferred inflation gauge, which is expected to dip to 2.7% in July, down from 3.0% in June. China's economic troubles have sent the Chinese yuan sharply lower, with the Chinese currency falling about 5% this year against the US dollar. A weak yuan makes Chinese exports more attractive, but this is at the expense of other exporters including Japan. As a result, there is pressure in Japan to lower the value of the yen in order to compete with Chinese exports. USD/JPY pushed above resistance at 145.54 earlier today. The next resistance line is 146.41 There is support at 144.51 and 143.64
by OANDA