BTC - Be prepared to adapt to different scenariosBTC Daily Chart Analysis: (Unbiased & just telling it how it is)
BTC is still ranging sideways within its massive sideways channel. Note that even if BTC drops back down to $30K, it will still be considered ranging sideways so you should be prepared for this because it will become more of a possibility especially if BTC continues failing to break ABOVE and more importantly CLOSE a daily candle ABOVE its Sideways Channel Resistance.
BTC has found strong resistance from its 2 resistance levels.
BTC has found some support from around its $38,355 support line area.
BTC is sill above its Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVR) Point of Control (POC) for this charts visible range.
IMPORTANT: Since the big volume spike on the 26th July, Daily Volume has been DECREASING and note that the yesterday’s Volume Bar closed BELOW its Volume 20 Period Moving Average. We shouldn’t have been shocked by today’s drop, it was inevitable because you can clearly see the Divergence between the previous 4 days Candles and the Volume Bars because it was indicating a rising Price but diminishing Volume.
Note that BTC is still safely above its WEEKLY 50EMA.
BTC is still above its Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis 20 Period SMA. Note that the Upper and Lower Bands have started to curve sideways and that this daily Candle is now back inside the Upper Band. Decreasing volatility is to be expected especially after the last few days of increased volatility.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is indicating upwards momentum is weakening with the MACD Line (Blue Line) curving slightly sideways and notice the green histogram has lightened and decreased in height which is a sign of weakening upwards momentum. The day isn’t over yet so this may change. A very bad sign for longs on the daily will be if the MACD Line (Blue Line) crosses back Under the Signal Line (Orange Line) which would be a major sell signal for most traders.
The Average Directional Index (ADX DI) is indicating Positive Momentum has dropped with the +DI (Green Line) dropping to 31.67, note we also have increasing Negative Momentum with the -DI (Red Line) moving up to 14.62. The ADX (Yellow Line) is starting to curve sideways at 29.17 and the 9 Period EMA (White Line) is pointing upwards at 27.06 so if the 9 Period EMA (White Line) crosses back above the ADX (Yellow Line) then we may see a continued weakening of trend strength on this 1D timeframe.
The Chaikin money Flow (CMF) is indicating accumulation has dropped slightly with the CMF (Green Line) dropping to 0.16. The CMF (Green Line) is still above its Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) (Blue Line) which is at 0.08. You do to want the CMF (Green Line) to cross under the LSMA (Blue Line) on this 1D timeframe.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is indicating a big increase in downwards momentum and the RSI (Purple Line) has dropped out of the Overbought Zone for this 1D timeframe. We can expect more downwards trajectory if the RSI (Purple Line) crosses below the 9 Period EMA (Yellow Line) which will be further confirmation of increasing downwards strength on this 1D timeframe.
Potential scenarios if BTC continues failing to CLOSE a Daily Candle ABOVE its Sideways Channel Resistance:
1: BTC drops back to its Bollinger Bands Middle Band 20 Period SMA level as potential support.
2: BTC drops back to its WEEKLY 50EMA level as potential support.
3: BTC drops right back to its Sideways Channel Support at around $31K - $29K levels as potential support.
4: BTC continues to flop around $40,951 - $36,970 ranges.
5: BTC continues to flop around $40,951 - $38,355 ranges.
Obviously this is all my opinion and BTC could be at $64K by tomorrow lunch time ;-) but NOT if it continues failing to CLOSE a daily candle ABOVE its sideways channel resistance ;-)
I hope this is helpful with your trading and hodl-ing.
