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Bollinger Bands (BB)

Natural Gas Reverses and breaks above the 21 Day Moving AverageNatural Gas reversed direction today and closed above the 6 and 8 day moving averages. In a statistical anomaly, and sharp reversal, price did not touch the 21 day moving average. I closed my short trade for a small loss and I am now neutral. Even though the new Heikin Ashi Delta indicator has turned blue, there is resistance directly above in the form of the the 50 and 100 day moving averages, the 21 week moving average and the upper Bollinger Band.Strong resistance for sure. Let me introduce the Heikin Ashi Delta indicator. The first and most obvious are the red and blue areas. This represents a 3 day simple moving average on the delta between the opening and closing prices. The second are the green and magenta dots on the edge of the areas. Dots are green if the moving average is above 0 and today's moving average is above yesterday's. If the moving average is above 0 but not above the previous day's moving average , the dot is magenta. The opposite is true for magenta dots. If the moving average is below 0 and today's moving average is below yesterday's, the dot is magenta. If the moving average is below 0 but today's moving average is not below yesterday's, the dot is green. The yellow line represents a double smoothed moving average on the Delta. I'm still evolving my strategy using this indicator and will keep everyone posted. Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk.
NYMEX:NGJ2017
by GoldBands
Gold Closes Above the 21 Day Moving AverageGold closed up 5 points on Monday to end the day at 1234 which is above the 21 day moving average which now sits at 1228.60. Today I'd like to introduce my new chart layout which now includes a Heikin-Ashi Delta indicator which was originally developed by Mr. Dan Valcu. Based on Heikin-Ashi candles, there are 3 main components to the indicator. The first and most obvious are the red and blue areas. This represents a 3 day simple moving average on the delta between the opening and closing prices. The second are the green and magenta dots on the edge of the areas. Dots are green if the moving average is above 0 and today's moving average is above yesterday's. If the moving average is above 0 but not above the previous day's moving average, the dot is magenta. The opposite is true for magenta dots. If the moving average is below 0 and today's moving average is below yesterday's, the dot is magenta. If the moving average is below 0 but today's moving average is not below yesterday's, the dot is green. The yellow line represents a double smoothed moving average on the Delta. Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk. I'm still evolving my strategy using this indicator and will keep everyone posted. F
COMEX:GC1!Long
by GoldBands
BTC Gameplan for Coming WeeksJudging on volatility pattern, blow-off top in running volume pattern and possible liquidity shortage due to regulation issues in China, market conditions on bitcoin are changing. Knowing bitcoin history one can easily deduct that such conditions are going to be very attractive for acccumulating BTC as it is going to get a relatively cheap and even riskless asset. Looking at the chart one can see an obvious pattern that has already appeared a few times at this market and is likely to be forming right now as long as BTC is not fundamentally changing itself.
B
by zhsloe
2
Fed Raises Rates and Gold Rises in TurnThe Fed today announced an increase in the Fed rate. This was not a surprise. What was surprising is the Gold rally that followed. In fact, Gold blasted through all resistance levels, including the 6 and 8 day moving averages, the 50 day moving average and the 21 weekly moving average. The Heikin-Ashi chart also shows a dramatic change of direction (see below) Now the question is where is Gold going. First, when price breaks the 6 day moving average, statistically speaking, there is a high probability will price will hit the 21 day moving average. Right now, that's at ~1230. My next target would be the top Bollinger Band. That's currently at 1265. This is what I call a coast to coast trade. After that, well, we'll evaluate that in the days to come. The last chart tonight is the Volume Profile chart. Notice that the short and intermediate term POC is at 1230. This will act like a magnet to price and makes another good target. Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk.
COMEX:GCJ2017Long
by GoldBands
Natural Gas Closed Under the 6 Day Moving AverageNatural Gas fell today in trading to end the day under the 6 day moving average. This could be the first sign that the bull move over the last 2 weeks is over. With price closing right at the 8 day moving average and the top of the Ichimoku Cloud, we also had the first red Heikin-Ashi candle in 9 days. My strategy calls for waiting for a close under the 8 day moving average before I go short. Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk.
NYMEX:NGJ2017
by GoldBands
Gold moves sideways in Prelude to Fed MeetingAs the United States and the rest of the world wait to hear if the Fed will raise interest rates tomorrow at 2:00 pm EST, Gold continued moving sideways right at the 1200 price level. Price did remain under the 6 day moving average and under all other significant moving averages as I have been pointing out this last week. In addition, we have now finished our 10th red Heikin-Ashi candle in a row. So while the bear run is still intact, anything can happen tomorrow. On the volume profile, we are still waiting to see if price will go back and fill in the area at the low volume node around 1190. Volatility will probably return tomorrow and move the needle on Gold to set up the next run. Stay tuned and good luck trading. Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk.
COMEX:GCJ2017Short
by GoldBands
Gold Moves Sideways in Light TradingAs the Fed meeting is scheduled for this coming Wednesday, trading was very light today for the precious metal. Price hovered just above the 1200 mark after hitting a high of 1210.9. That price level coincided with the 6 day moving average as well as the 21 weekly moving average. You can see those levels on the chart as the purple cross and gold dot respectively. Until price closes above the 6 day moving average, I will maintain my short positions. Note that Monday was the 9th red Heikin-Ashi candle. As I had written about last Thursday, there's a low volume node on the volume profile at 1190 and that's where Gold had traded to on Friday. That's still a level of interest. Watch how much support it provides if and when price gets back down to that level. Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk.
COMEX:GCJ2017Short
by GoldBands
Gold Keeps Falling, Breaks Below 1200Gold slowly consolidated today after selling off 5 points at the start of the overnight session. Then at the end of the day, price fell through the magical 1200 level (magical only because it's a nice round number :-) ). We now await the non-farm payroll numbers tomorrow at 8:30 am EST. If the ADP numbers yesterday are an indication, this number may beat the 200k forecasted. There are now 6 consecutive Heikin-Ashi candles (see my indicator at bottom of chart) and price has solidly moved past all moving averages and the Ichimoku Cloud. There are 2 key support levels coming up. The first is at 1190 which is a low volume node on the Volue Profile chart (see below). The second is @ 1177.5, which is the 23% fib retracement from the election night high. This also corresponds to another low volume node at 1170 on the volume profile. Disclaimer: This post is for information purposes only. All trading is at your own risk.
COMEX:GCJ2017
by GoldBands
Support Levels Fail to Contain Gold's DeclineGold closed the day at 1208.1, down 7.5 points. As I called out in last night's post, there were 4 levels of support today that could have stopped Gold's decline. However, as a continued sign that the bear move is well underway, none of those levels held. To remind you, those levels were: Gold Support Levels Lower Bollinger Band - 1214.70 21 Week Moving Average - 1212.80 50 Day Moving Average - 1210.70 38% Fib from Election Day High - 1209.30 With the Fed meeting a week away, it looks like "Sell the rumor, Buy the news" is in full swing. Notice that on last Wednesday and Friday there was strong buying off the lows to end both of days at the top of the daily range and that each day was followed by strong selling days that closed at the low of the day. Now, for the last 2 days, there hasn't been any pretense from buyers that they are trying to buy up the market. On the Volume Profile chart, it definitely looks like price is heading to the low volume node at 1190. As I mentioned in my post this morning, my first profit target at 1209 was hit and I closed some of my current position. Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk.
COMEX:GCJ2017
by GoldBands
Gold Continues Moving Lower and Peaks through Bottom of CloudGold closed down 9.8 points today and poked through the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud. There is a lot of support at this level though so we need to see if price will hold here or will the bear move continue. Of note is that Wednesday opens with the 6th consecutive day of red Heikin-Ashi candles. Support Levels Lower Bollinger Band - 1214.70 50 Day Moving Average - 1210.70 21 Week Moving Average - 1212.80 38% Fib from Election Day High - 1209.30 While its too early to predict where the bottom of this move might be, let's keep our eyes on the .272 fib extension off the Election Night high to the December low. The volume profile is showing a low volume node at 1190. That would be a good short term target if price continues to move lower. Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
COMEX:GCJ2017
by GoldBands
The End of the Gold RallyGold sold off sharply today, dropping 15.5 points and closing under all 3 moving averages on the chart, the 6 day, the 8 day and the 21 day moving averages. Gold now seems determined to head south. The first target should now be the lower red bollinger band. Chart update: now that the bull run is over, I've removed the intermediate and short term waves from the chart. In it's place, I've added a fib retracement that spans the date range from election night, 11/8/2016 through the present. It's very clear that Gold was not able to break through the .618 retracement level and is now trading at the .50 level. Gold is now knocking on the door of the Ichimoku cloud. With 2 strong red Heikin-Ashi candles, odds are that price will now move in to the cloud. The conservative trader will want to wait for price to emerge on the downside of the cloud before going short. More aggressive traders will want to go short now, placing stops at the 6 day moving average. The Volume Profile chart shows that the long term and short term POCs have move down and it is at this level the price closed today. This is more confirmation that the bull move is over.
COMEX:GCJ2017Short
by GoldBands
Gold Falls and then Rallies Off the 21 Day Moving AverageGold sold off in the overnight session to tag the 21 day moving average. The precious metal then reversed as the New York markets opened up and rallied to close between the 6 and 8 day moving averages. On the whole, gold rose a modest 1.5 points today. Today's doji shows that once again gold seems to be in a holding pattern and moving sideways. Although since this wave started at the end of January, all selloffs have been met with enthusiastic, if not aggressive, buying. The Heikin-Ashi chart is more bullish and shows that price is trading above the Ichimoku cloud and that the Chikou Span (lagging line) is also trading above price and the cloud. While overall bullish, it's important to observe that today's Heikin-Ashi candle was a red candle. This followed a Heikin-Ashi doji candle the day before. All adds up to some level of uncertainty. The volume profile chart is also bullish. Notice that the short and long term POCs are right at the same price as the 21 day moving average. That acted as a magnet for price today but then repelled price upward. This is very bullish suggesting that there is a pool of buyers camped out at the POC.
COMEX:GCJ2017Long
by GoldBands
Gold Pauses and Hits Resistance Gold traded higher in the first part of the day on Monday and then sold off in the afternoon to close at 1258.8. The day ended with a doji candle that had penetrated the upper BollingerBand but then sold off and closed between the 2 upper BBs. Remember the red BB is set to 2 Standard Deviations and the cyan BB is set to 1.5 Standard Deviations. Gold is also trading above the 6 and 8 day moving averages. All this supports a continued bullish outlook. This is also confirmed by the 3rd strong green Heikin-Ashi candle that you can see on the chart below. Until at least one of these changes, I will be maintaining my long positions. Finally, if you look at the long term volume profile on the chart below, I've put a rectangle around the area on the left where it looks like price is trying to fill in. There's a low volume node at 1280 that could act as a magnet and then resistance for price. Disclaimer: this post is for educational purposed only. Trading is at your own risk.
COMEX:GCJ2017Long
by GoldBands
Gold Continues to Move HigherOn Friday, Gold continued the rally started on Thursday and closed @ 1258, up 7.4 points on the day. This confirms that move up to the target zone of 1277, which would be the 1:1 target of the Major and Minor A waves (see chart). I have also marked a few higher targets if strong buying comes into the market. The 1.272 fib extension is very common and that has nice confluence with the round number of 1300. There are now 2 very strong Heikin-Ashi candles confirming the resumption of the bull move up. The weekly Hiekin-Ashi chart shows 8 weeks of strong upward movement. However, it's clear that price is moving into the middle of the Ichimoku cloud. Let's see if price can break through this week, If it's rejected here, then we'll have to re-think our wave counts and re-assess our long positions. Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
COMEX:GCJ2017Long
by GoldBands
Gold Breaks Out of Range to Close a New Yearly HighGold rose 12.4 points to to close at a new yearly high of 1250.7. This puts the C wave firmly back in play with an expected target of 1277.7. Price on the Volume Profile charts has now extended past both the short term and intermediate term value areas which suggests that price will now move higher, attempting to fill in the profile at the higher end. The 3 days starting from election day have very large candles which means that not alot of volume was accumulated at that time. These illiquid trading days tend to get re-visited and filled out. Finally, on the Heikin-Ashi chart, we now have 2 strong, consecutive green candles. The way that price is now moving away from the 6/8 day moving averages is a classical beginning of a new wave. Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
COMEX:GCJ2017Long
by GoldBands