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Bollinger Bands (BB)

Gold Moves Up but Can't Break Resistance on Light Trading DayGold rose 2.1 points on Monday in very light trading as the US markets were closed in honor of President's Day. Gold penetrated the 6 and 8 day moving averages at the low of the day but closed above them. The precious metal is trading sideways for now. This sideways trading is even more pronounced on the Heikin-Ashi daily chart with 6 of the last 8 candles being Dojis. I've also added Ichimoku clouds to the chart. All the indicators are bullish, for now but I've seen Gold stay in these tight ranges for weeks at a time. The final chart tonight is the Volume Profile view. You can see that price has tried to poke out of the upper value area on the short term profile (on the right) but has so far failed in those attempts. It's also interesting that the upper value area on the intermediate term volume profile is just on top of this so there seems to be a lot of pressure containing Gold's upward movement. Disclaimer: This commentary is for educational purposes only and is not to be taken as trading advice.
COMEX:GCJ2017
by GoldBands
Gold Trades Higher but Runs into ResistanceGold traded higher today, closing at 1240.1, up 5.8 points on the day. While the move was great for the bulls, the precious metal ran into strong resistant @1243.7, the highs from last week. If Gold continues to move up tomorrow, that will mark the 3rd consecutive week up and the 7th out of the last 8 weeks. Here's the weekly chart: On the main chart above, I've labelled the short term and intermediate waves for this bull run that started on the 23rd of December last year. The measured move of that (A) wave would put price at 1274.3. That's the intermediate wave. The measured move of the short term wave, the minor (a) that started on January 27, would put price at 1283. I've labeled those waves on the chart and put a rectangle at the projected area. The Heikin-Ashi chart shows a strong green candle for today, with a nice wick at the top and no wick on the bottom. That's about as strong a HA candle as you can get. The volume profile chart shows that today we moved out of the short term value area but are meeting resistance at the top of the intermediate term value area. If price can push higher, there's a low volume area at the 1248 area that could provide some resistance. Disclaimer: this post is for educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk.
COMEX:GCJ2017Long
by GoldBands
Gold Bounces Sharply Off the 21 Day MAGold sold off in the overnight session and tagged the 21 day MA at 1217.5 and then sharply rebounded to close just above the 6 and 8 day moving averages. I have been calling for a tag of that 21 day MA since Monday when price broke through the ice and closed below those moving averages. But now, price is trading above them and the future direction seems like it may be for Gold to rise and resume the C wave which would put the next target at 1276. Let's take a look at the Heikin-Ashi chart. There have been 4 doji candles in the last 5 days. That's a good indication of sideways price motion so we may need another day or 2 before the next direction is established. The volume profile chart shows a very elongated high volume node at 1226. I am watching to see if price will rotate back down and tag it and will it then continue to tag the POC? Or, is there enough strength to break past the short and intermediate term value areas? Again, we are in a waiting pattern. Disclaimer: comments here are for education purposes only and should not be taken as trade advice. All trading decisions are your own.
COMEX:GCJ2017
by GoldBands
Gold Continues Moving SidewaysGold closed up 3.1 points on Tuesday but that was basically a move sideways. There was some volatility in the morning when Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen began her testominy. But while the DXY dollar index had a strong move up, Gold stayed basically flat. However, it is clear on the chart that Gold is still trading under the 6 and 8 day moving average so my bias is still to the downside, expecting Gold to hit the 21 day moving average. At some point. Tonight I've combined the Heikin-Ashi chart with the Volume Profile chart. Today's candle was a Doji which signals either a reversal or continuation of the trend. If Gold does continue this downward trend, then I am still expecting price to hit the 21 day moving average or the gold line at the midpoint of the Bollinger Band. The final chart tonight is a Volume Profile chart with each profile representing a day's trading. The white line is the closing price for each 30 minutes. Notice how the POC acts like a magnet? Well, the 21 Day moving average (gold line) is also a magnet. Let's see if it can attract price tomorrow or at least by the end of the week. Disclaimer: this chart is for educational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice. Trade at your own risk.
COMEX:GCJ2017Short
by GoldBands
Gold Breaks Through and Closes Below the 8 Day Moving AverageGold dropped 8.1 points on the day to close below the 8 day moving average. As the dollar rose, gold sold off and finally cracked the 8 day ma. It also closed below the forward adjusted closing price line represented as the cyan line. There is now a high probability that gold will touch the 20 day moving average which is the midpoint of the Bollinger Bands. The Heikin Ashi chart shows that we are now in red territory, with 2 red candles in a row. If you look back a few days at the last green Heikin Ashi candle, you can see that it is a doji. Doji Heikin Ashi candles signify either a change or continuation of direction. Since that green doji has been followed by 2 red candles, it appears to have signaled a change of direction. The volume profiles are still showing confluence of the POCs from the intermediate and short terms. Whether or not we will see a resumption of the C wave and Gold moving higher in the near future is uncertain. For now though, it looks like there is more room to go on the downside.
COMEX:GCJ2017Short
by GoldBands
NZDUSD Daily Short (BB + RSI)This is a strategy that has been in development for a week or two, no trades placed yet, this is the first. You can see that pattern, RSI breaks out above 65 and goes back down below 65 for several markers, while price is in the upper bollinger band (or near it), and price will go down. Likewise, RSI breaks out below 35 and goes back up above 35 for several markets, while price is in the lower bollinger band (or near it), and price will go up. Stop loss above the high, target at the middle band or the opposite band, you pick.
Short
by MtxTrader
Gold Ends last Week with WeaknessGold rose for the second week in a row, ending the week at 1234.7, up 12.8 points for the week. However, after reaching a high of 1246.6 on Wednesday, Gold fell on Thursday and Friday, touching but not breaking through the 8 day moving average. So where does the precious metal go this week? Let's take a look at some of the technical indicators that I use. Gold broke through the 6 day moving average but not the 8 day ma. If price does close below the 8 day ma, then statistically, the odds are that price will fall and hit the 20 day ma or the midpoint of the Bollinger Band you see on the chart. I have also put a closing price line on the chart. The cyan line is pushed out 5 days into the future and offers a great look at where price may be going. Friday touched the this cyan line but did not break it. So far, this is slightly bullish for Gold, potentially saying that this pullback at the end of the week is will be short lived and that the bullish move will continue. On the bearish side, there are some compelling technical indicators as well. First, look at the Stochastic RSI at the bottom of this chart. The indicator has clearly breached the 80 line and it looks like the indicator will be cycling down. This is bearish. Below is the Volume Profile version of the chart. The profile on the left is from election day through present. The profile on the right is for the bull move up starting on December 15, 2016. Notice how the POC is the same on both. With POCs acting as magnets, this could pull price down to it, at around 1213. This would also be bearish. While there does seem to be some immediate bearishness in Gold, if the move up from the low of December 15, 2016 was in fact an A wave, then we are still expecting a C wave that will be equal or greater than the A wave. This is fundamental to Elliot Wave theory and would mean that this weakness is a simple corrective wave and that we should expect the C wave up to continue at some point in the near future. For now though, let's watch what happens if and when Gold gets to the 1213 level. That could be a strong pivot point.
COMEX:GCJ2017
by GoldBands
Gold Tumbles on Dollar StrengthThursday started off promising with Gold hovering around the 1242 level. But then the dollar DXY broke out above the midpoint of the BB and Gold fell, closing the day below the 6 day moving average. At it's low, it touched the 8 day moving average were I am sure many people had their stops. As the Friday session begins in Asia, Gold continues to fall. Statistically, once price breaks below both the 6 and 8 day moving averages, there is a high percentage probability that price will hit the 20 day moving average, or the midpoint of the Bollinger Band @1214. Here is the volume profile chart that I've been showing the last few nights. On the long term profile on the far left of the chart, I had been thinking the price would roll up through the low volume area to POC at 1270. But now with price moving lower, it's interesting the the short term POC on the right profile is at the same level as the midpoint of the Bollinger Band on the daily chart above. Coincidence? Confluence? Let's see what happens. :-) *Disclaimer: this information is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as trading advice.
COMEX:GCJ2017
by GoldBands
Gold Gains Almost 8 Points Resuming It's Bullish TrendGold continued to move higher today, closing at 1243.1, a gain of 7.9 points for the precious metal. The US Dollar Index $DXY fell today which helped fuel Gold's rise. As I pointed out yesterday, the dollar had closed under the midpoint on the BollingerBand after having tried to break through that line of resistance and I thought that it would move lower today. It did and Gold was the beneficiary, continuing it bullish trend. What we want to see now is Gold to keep hugging the outer BollingerBand, rising steadily between the BollingerBands and the rising 6 day moving average. You may want to use the 8 day moving average as a good place to put your stops. You can have confidence in the bull trend as long as price stays close to the outer Bollinger Bands and above the 6 and 8 day moving averages. You can also use the Heikin-Ashi as a great way to monitor the trend. Look at the chart below. Following the colors is a great way to stay confident in your position. Green is Up and Red is Down. It doesn't get any easier than that. :-) My final comment here is that you can see that price is trading in the middle of a low volume area. Price may pause here and try to fill in that area before making it's next move.
COMEX:GCJ2017Long
by GoldBands
Gold Pauses and Closes Down Slightly on the DayAfter the big move up yesterday, Gold took a pause and closed down slightly to end the day at 1235.5. The low of the day touched the 1.5 Std Dev Bollinger Band at which point buyers stepped in and bought in anticipation of the next move. On a day where the dollar strengthened, Gold maintaining it's position can be seen as bullish. On the chart below, I've added 2 volume profiles. The one on the far left is for the time range from Dec, 2015 through today. Notice how the Point of Control (cyan line) is almost exactly at 1273, which is the measured move from the first wave in this bull run. The current price at 1235 is at a rather elongated peak in the profile. If price can get past that peak, the hitting the POC should be a no brainer.
COMEX:GCJ2017Long
by GoldBands
Gold Breaks Through Resistance on Strong Up DayGold broke out of the 1220 resistance level today and pushed up to a daily high of 1237.5. This was the breakout that I had been waiting for. Gold clearly wants to go higher. The first target is the .618 extension of the move from January @ 1241.7. A more likely target is 1278.6 which would be the measured move of the (A) wave. I have put the probably extensions on the daily chart. It's interesting to note that there is a lot of options speculation at the 1267 level which is the .88 fib extension. A number of harmonic patterns use the .88 fib level so I am expecting to see some resistance there although only price action will tell how strong the resistance will actually be. If the theory that last year was the start of a new bull market for the precious metal, then this is indeed an exciting time to be a gold bull! I've highlighted the cyan BB at 1228.9 as a pullback area if you are looking to add to an existing position. The Heikin-Ashi chart shows a strong bull trend. Personally I will not be taking any profits until the first red candle. :-) This final chart is the weekly view with the fib extension from the low on Nov. 30, 2015 @ 1045. This shows the measured move @ 1457.9.
COMEX:GCJ2017Long
by GoldBands
Gold Ends the Week touching the 1221 Resistance LevelGold rose higher today after shaking off a selling spree after the NFP numbers were released. Prices fell right to the 6 day moving average before buyers stepped in and gold prices rallied. Prices continued to move higher right up to the closing bell and the action stopped @ 1221.6. Let's see what happens next week but if price can finally break through the 1221 and close above it (yes, I know, I've said that before :) ), the first target would be 1241, the .618 fib extension of the (A) wave. However, if this is truely going to be an ABC pattern, then price will hit 1278.6, the full 1.0 measured move. Here's the simplified Heikin-Ashi chart. Although we are in a solid green uptrend, today's candle was an inside candle which suggests that it might take price a couple more days to blast through the resistance. Here's the weekly chart. Notice that price on the weekly is now right at the midline of the BB. That's equal to a 20 day ma. If price moves above here, the odds are good that it will move to at least the blue BB at 1284. The final chart I want to look at is a monthly Heikin-Ashi chart. January ended as a red inside bar and so far, the February action has been all green. If price continues to rise, February could be a great month for the bulls. Have a great weekend!
COMEX:GCJ2017Long
by GoldBands
Gold Breaches 1220 but Ends the Day BelowGold pushed up past the 1220 resistance level for the 3rd time since the start of the year, only to be met with strong resistance and falling back under 1220 to be within the range from 1182 - 1220. While I am still long, the upper wick on today's candle is not the most encouraging for the bulls. On the bullish side, price is still above the 6, 8 and 21 day moving averages and sandwiched between the 1.0 and 1.5 Bollinger Bands (blue and cyan respectively). The Heikin-Ashi chart below is a little more encouraging with the 3 previous days showing solid green candles without bottom wicks. Tomorrow is NFP at 8:30 am EST. Let's see if that can push price past 1220 once and for all and get this bull moving!
COMEX:GCJ2017Long
by GoldBands
Gold Pushes Up Against a Potential Triple TopGold started the day with a big selloff but then recovered after the FOMC and Janet Yellen announced that they would not be raising interest rates at this time. Gold is now attempting to break out of a potential triple top at $1220. If Gold can break through, then the first target would be 1241.7, the .618 fib extention from the bull run that started at the end of last year. With jobless claims tomorrow at 8:30 am EST and Non Farm Payroll on Friday at 8:30 am EST, there can be some potential big moves coming up for the precious metal. The main chart today is complete with all the indicators that I use. The first chart below is the same but with Japanese Candlesticks, called Heiken Ashi. They are really good for showing trends. As you can see, we are now into day 3 of this uptrend. On this next chart, I've removed most of the chart objects to show only the basic Bollinger Band and Moving Averages. It's clear to see that price has separated from the 6 and 8 day moving averages and has ridden the mid line of the Bollinger Band higher. Feel free to ask any questions or leave comments. I am always interested in having thoughtful discussions on price action to improve all our trading.
COMEX:GCJ2017Long
by GoldBands
Gold Breaks Out to Upside - BarelyGold rose ~15 points today and broke through the 6 and 8 day moving average. It also broke through the trend line starting back on election night, Nov 8. Price also failed to break below the mid line of the Bollinger Band. The next resistance level is at 1220 so let's see if Gold can move up and past it. Look at the Heikin Ashi chart below. 2 days ago there was a red doji. Doji's on Heikin Ashi charts are good signals for either continuations or reversals. We now have 2 strong green candles after the doji. The final chart tonight is below. It looks like we are entering the C leg. Also 4 days ago price firmly rejected the range below.
COMEX:GCJ2017Long
by GoldBands
Will Gold Push Down to 1150?Hi All, I've been refining my charts since my last post. Here's the new chart layout: Red Bollinger Band with standard 2.0 STD and 20 day midline. 8 period MA - yellow line - *new 6 period MA - purple cross - *new Closing Price pushed out 5 days - *new On Tuesday, Gold closed at the 8 day MA, having cracked the 6 day MA. Then on Wednesday, Gold broke below the 8 day MA. This usually means that price will continue on to the 21 day MA, which it did today. Notice that the Stoch RSI has broken below the 80 line and is now moving down. Will price now keep moving towards the lower BB in what I call a coast to coast trade? I'm holding on to my short for now.
COMEX:GCG2017Short
by GoldBands