The strategy with +5411.8 % returns on HOT in 6 monthsA trading strategy that beats HOT's stellar returns may seem like a tough task or requiring something really complicated in order to execute. With what's presented here the goal is to demonstrate that that is not the case. You can beat holding (basically the only reason for trading) and you can do it with a simple strategy. Let's get to it.
In the past 6 months just holding HOT would have brought you 757% vs Bitcoin. So if you started with one Bitcoin worth of HOT at the end of September you would have 7.5 Bitcoin today. We want to beat that by trading. This strategy also works on FET, ACT and COV.
WILL POST POSITIONS BELOW - I plotted a few on the chart to know what I'm looking at.
The strategy goals:
- Trade the BTC pair and beat holding
- drawdown needs to be limited to 25% maximum. We don't want to go through long stretches where we watch our funds shrink. Having a losing trade after a losing trade can derail discipline.
- Simple so anyone can execute it and can be automated for gains while you are sleeping
The strategy:
After trying different approaches and removing all redundant strategy rules though trial and error we have the most simplistic and powerful strategy to beat holding HOT many times over. All you need to do is:
On the 30 min chart
- open a position when price is below the lower Bollinger Band (standard settings)
- close the position when price is crossing up the higher Bollinger Band
No stop loss or take profit - we always respect the market based close rule.
The results:
In 6 months this strategy returned a massive 5411.8%, convincingly beating just holding HOT. If you started trading this strategy in September with 1 Bitcoin you would now have 54.1! What's very impressive is that the maximum drawdown was only 19%. That and the massive returns gives us a Sortino Ratio of 37.2 (for comparison any strategy above 2 is considered good).
The strategy opened a total of 72 positions winning 73.6%. Not only is the win rate great but the average win is at 8.5% while the average loss is 2.86% which is why the strategy is performing so well. If you trade this expect to hold a position for a day and 8 hours on average.
If there's anything I can clarify please let me know.
The positions:
28/03/2021 13:00
28/03/2021 17:30
5 hours
OP 0.00000017
CP 0.00000019
+9.03%
27/03/2021 12:30
27/03/2021 21:00
9 hours
OP 0.00000018
CP 0.0000002
+10.3%
26/03/2021 05:30
26/03/2021 18:30
13 hours
OP 0.00000015
CP 0.00000015
+3.22%
24/03/2021 18:00
25/03/2021 10:30
17 hours
OP 0.00000014
CP 0.00000015
+7.41%
22/03/2021 19:30
23/03/2021 23:00
1 day
OP 0.00000014
CP 0.00000014
+3.95%
20/03/2021 14:00
21/03/2021 09:00
19 hours
OP 0.00000014
CP 0.00000014
-1.35%
17/03/2021 15:30
19/03/2021 08:30
2 days
OP 0.00000013
CP 0.00000013
+0.927%
16/03/2021 17:30
17/03/2021 05:30
12 hours
OP 0.00000011
CP 0.00000013
+17.4%
15/03/2021 22:30
16/03/2021 07:00
9 hours
OP 0.00000013
CP 0.00000015
+20.6%
12/03/2021 17:30
13/03/2021 09:30
16 hours
OP 0.00000005
CP 0.00000006
+1.93%
11/03/2021 19:00
12/03/2021 09:30
15 hours
OP 0.00000005
CP 0.00000005
+4.61%
10/03/2021 05:30
11/03/2021 04:30
23 hours
OP 0.00000006
CP 0.00000006
-3.9%
08/03/2021 06:00
09/03/2021 15:00
1 day
OP 0.00000006
CP 0.00000006
+0.614%
06/03/2021 22:30
07/03/2021 12:00
14 hours
OP 0.00000006
CP 0.00000007
+9.46%
06/03/2021 05:00
06/03/2021 10:30
6 hours
OP 0.00000006
CP 0.00000007
+7.53%
04/03/2021 16:30
05/03/2021 12:00
20 hours
OP 0.00000005
CP 0.00000006
+19.2%
03/03/2021 05:00
04/03/2021 08:00
1 day
OP 0.00000005
CP 0.00000006
+19.1%
02/03/2021 08:00
03/03/2021 04:30
21 hours
OP 0.00000006
CP 0.00000006
+3.76%
27/02/2021 13:00
28/02/2021 19:30
1 day
OP 0.00000006
CP 0.00000006
+0.275%
26/02/2021 01:30
27/02/2021 08:00
1 day
OP 0.00000006
CP 0.00000006
+3.81%
24/02/2021 20:00
25/02/2021 07:00
11 hours
OP 0.00000006
CP 0.00000007
+0.479%
22/02/2021 09:00
23/02/2021 13:00
1 day
OP 0.00000006
CP 0.00000007
+17.4%
20/02/2021 16:00
21/02/2021 09:30
18 hours
OP 0.00000003
CP 0.00000004
+26.4%
16/02/2021 10:00
17/02/2021 02:00
16 hours
OP 0.00000003
CP 0.00000003
-2.17%
13/02/2021 04:00
15/02/2021 08:00
2 days
OP 0.00000003
CP 0.00000003
+0.112%
12/02/2021 04:30
12/02/2021 16:00
12 hours
OP 0.00000003
CP 0.00000003
+5.28%
10/02/2021 18:00
11/02/2021 00:30
7 hours
OP 0.00000002
CP 0.00000003
+11.7%
08/02/2021 13:00
08/02/2021 19:00
6 hours
OP 0.00000002
CP 0.00000002
+29.7%
07/02/2021 13:00
07/02/2021 13:30
30 minutes
OP 0.00000002
CP 0.00000002
+1.34%
05/02/2021 20:00
07/02/2021 00:00
1 day
OP 0.00000002
CP 0.00000002
-4.91%
04/02/2021 23:00
05/02/2021 15:00
16 hours
OP 0.00000002
CP 0.00000002
+6.51%
01/02/2021 18:00
04/02/2021 20:00
3 days
OP 0.00000002
CP 0.00000002
+4.87%
30/01/2021 15:00
01/02/2021 08:00
2 days
OP 0.00000002
CP 0.00000002
+3.16%
26/01/2021 13:00
28/01/2021 15:30
2 days
OP 0.00000002
CP 0.00000002
+4.94%
25/01/2021 10:00
25/01/2021 21:30
12 hours
OP 0.00000002
CP 0.00000002
+2.18%
22/01/2021 09:00
22/01/2021 13:30
5 hours
OP 0.00000001
CP 0.00000003
+99.1%
19/01/2021 15:30
20/01/2021 11:00
20 hours
OP 0.00000002
CP 0.00000002
0%
18/01/2021 02:00
18/01/2021 19:00
17 hours
OP 0.00000002
CP 0.00000002
+14.4%
16/01/2021 06:30
16/01/2021 16:30
10 hours
OP 0.00000002
CP 0.00000002
+17.6%
14/01/2021 10:30
15/01/2021 12:30
1 day
OP 0.00000002
CP 0.00000002
-5.78%
13/01/2021 10:00
13/01/2021 23:30
14 hours
OP 0.00000002
CP 0.00000002
+1.57%
10/01/2021 11:30
11/01/2021 15:30
1 day
OP 0.00000002
CP 0.00000003
+3.99%
08/01/2021 12:30
08/01/2021 16:30
4 hours
OP 0.00000002
CP 0.00000002
+13.5%
07/01/2021 08:30
07/01/2021 09:00
30 minutes
OP 0.00000002
CP 0.00000003
+48.8%
06/01/2021 15:30
06/01/2021 19:00
4 hours
OP 0.00000002
CP 0.00000002
+20.1%
05/01/2021 16:00
06/01/2021 12:30
21 hours
OP 0.00000002
CP 0.00000002
+1.91%
03/01/2021 11:00
05/01/2021 07:00
2 days
OP 0.00000002
CP 0.00000002
+13%
31/12/2020 10:30
01/01/2021 09:00
23 hours
OP 0.00000002
CP 0.00000002
-7.17%
26/12/2020 11:00
28/12/2020 06:30
2 days
OP 0.00000002
CP 0.00000002
-9.1%
24/12/2020 21:00
26/12/2020 10:00
2 days
OP 0.00000003
CP 0.00000002
-5%
23/12/2020 19:30
24/12/2020 09:00
14 hours
OP 0.00000003
CP 0.00000003
+0.609%
19/12/2020 15:00
21/12/2020 23:30
2 days
OP 0.00000003
CP 0.00000003
+3.34%
18/12/2020 02:00
18/12/2020 13:30
12 hours
OP 0.00000003
CP 0.00000003
+30.1%
17/12/2020 01:30
17/12/2020 12:00
11 hours
OP 0.00000003
CP 0.00000003
+4.13%
16/12/2020 08:00
16/12/2020 17:30
10 hours
OP 0.00000003
CP 0.00000003
+8.11%
07/12/2020 18:00
13/12/2020 09:30
6 days
OP 0.00000003
CP 0.00000003
-2.05%
04/12/2020 20:00
07/12/2020 03:00
2 days
OP 0.00000003
CP 0.00000003
+0.218%
24/11/2020 23:00
30/11/2020 11:30
6 days
OP 0.00000003
CP 0.00000003
-5.9%
24/11/2020 02:30
24/11/2020 08:30
6 hours
OP 0.00000003
CP 0.00000003
+4.32%
17/11/2020 13:30
21/11/2020 11:30
4 days
OP 0.00000003
CP 0.00000003
-2.87%
15/11/2020 03:00
17/11/2020 05:00
2 days
OP 0.00000003
CP 0.00000003
-2.2%
11/11/2020 02:00
14/11/2020 13:00
3 days
OP 0.00000003
CP 0.00000003
-1.19%
08/11/2020 23:30
09/11/2020 23:00
24 hours
OP 0.00000003
CP 0.00000003
+0.926%
07/11/2020 19:30
08/11/2020 18:30
23 hours
OP 0.00000003
CP 0.00000003
+0.0645%
05/11/2020 04:30
06/11/2020 09:30
1 day
OP 0.00000003
CP 0.00000003
-6.05%
01/11/2020 12:00
02/11/2020 16:00
1 day
OP 0.00000003
CP 0.00000003
-4.35%
31/10/2020 07:30
01/11/2020 06:30
23 hours
OP 0.00000003
CP 0.00000003
-0.178%
28/10/2020 04:30
28/10/2020 12:30
8 hours
OP 0.00000004
CP 0.00000004
+1.99%
25/10/2020 05:30
27/10/2020 04:00
2 days
OP 0.00000004
CP 0.00000004
-2.03%
23/10/2020 17:30
24/10/2020 09:30
16 hours
OP 0.00000004
CP 0.00000004
-2.24%
21/10/2020 06:00
21/10/2020 06:30
30 minutes
OP 0.00000004
CP 0.00000004
+2.74%
01/10/2020 13:30
19/10/2020 06:00
18 days
OP 0.00000004
CP 0.00000004
+9.9%
Bollingerbandstrategy
ADA - Bollinger Bands SqueezeFor any crypto asset, periods of consolidation are a really good thing as it brings everything into equilibrium to enable a new higher support launchpad to be built to which a new higher price can be reached. You must remember that consolidation is not done at a constant level but within a range. Have a peek at this ADA daily chart, you can clearly see what has happened 3 time before after a period of consolidation in a Bollinger Bands Squeeze and also Sideways Momentum on the RSI! Yes, it does look good & it looks like there will be exciting times ahead, because remember that ADA is still in a longterm uptrend. Periods of consolidation vary in length so only time will tell. Obviously nothing is set in stone so the only question is, do you have the patience to hold & wait for the outcome? If you don't know what consolidation is and if you don't realise that ADA is in a consolidation phase, then you will probably miss the next rocket upwards and end up buying at the top again screaming "shit coin" as ADA enters another period of consolidation. I hope this is helpful. Good Luck 👍🔥🚀🌔
Quickpost BTMFD on TSLAGlossed over:
Interest rates are pumping, debt is getting expensive, commodities are booming (silver and electronic vehicles, DYOR) and DXY is in a massive ascending triangle (get good at TA or stay poor).
Quickpost
Potential elliot wave 1-5. Looking for an ABC correction to conclude within Wave 4. No idea if we get a triangle, running flat, some sort of W pattern, or something else.
I expect the weekly Bollinger Band to be supportive on this trade. If I see price action out of the weekly BB I will be trailing down buystops or buying calls.
A 1-5 and A-C correction set up a higher time frame 1-2 Elliot wave. Target is near the moon (not shown due to quickpost).
Conclusion
Not financial advice.
Bollinger Bands. An imperfect strategy for an imperfect world.I have seen and tested many strategies in my trading history but I have yet to find anything that can guarantee a 50% or higher win rate (And that 50% rate is before fees and taxes!). Bollinger bands do not provide a competitive edge, but rather, provide something more important to a retail trader. Clarity.
Bollinger bands are based on the standard deviation of the price of an asset at the current point. Standard deviation (std dev) is based on normal distribution. If you dont know what this is, thats okay. All you need to know is after 3 std dev 99.7% of prices are included. This can be used as an imperfect probability metric as only 0.3% of price points over the last 200 days lay outside of the green bollinger band shown above.
Regardless of biases, news and other such factors, bollinger bands can be used to guage whether a liquid asset is cheap or expensive.
As seen on the graph above, everybody's favourite asset (BTCUSD) can be traded with this simple 200 day bollinger (3) and (4) on daily price metrics. However, don't use indicators as a ground rule for strategies. Low liquidity assets and small timeframes significantly reduce the effectiveness of bollinger bands. Furthermore, I would not use bollingers for shorting or leveraged positions as the price has no obligation to obey its standard deviation metrics.
I recommend using bollingers on a spot position of liquid assets as displayed in the above graph. (Notice "position" not "Whole account" as all strategies should be)
GBPJPY BOLLINGER SQUEEZE BUY!Hey guys quite new to trading, ive had success these weeks following this pattern of resistance and support, and it looks like it is continuing. However i think i can see a potentia outburst from bollinger squeeze, this with the new supports could mean a big jump. Also UK is coming out of lockdown soon too. Everything sounding very bullish might just be my character though, does anyone else agree with this buy?
The Brexit process has posed many unforeseen challenges to the British pound sterling, and enhanced periodic volatilities have been observed surrounding key diplomatic and political events. From the massive losses taken in the hours after the surprise vote for Brexit, to a gradual recovery due to subsiding uncertainty, the GBP has undergone numerous fundamental transformations.
While the ultimate end to the Brexit saga remains to be seen, many currency market participants are promoting an optimistic tone toward the GBP.
Following a strong 2017 where the GBP gained 9.5% against the USD and 4.3% against the euro , investors were reassured of the pound's global standing.
Of course, economic growth in the U.K. and Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy decisions will ultimately determine the GBP's value in a post-Brexit Europe.
refrenced.
XRT NeutralMA20 Bollinger Band Overbought
Sell Iron Condor -- limit 3.35
SellToOpen Mar Call Spread C70/75
SellToOpen Mar Put Spread C60/65
$5 range,
max profit 3.35,
max risk 1.65,
Reward:risk=2:1
I am not a PRO trader. I trade option to test my trading plan with small cost.
The max Risk of each plan is less than 1% of my account.
If you like this idea, please use SIM/Demo account to try it.
15 Minute Bollinger Band Strategy Here we use a 15 Minute chart with Bollinger bands set to 20 with a standard deviation of 2.
First we look for an established trend direction, once that has been found we apply our bands, set the deviation for 2 and wait for the price to test or slightly break that lower band. (test/break of higher band in the case of a down trend and sell order)
Here we have highlighted these tests/breaks with a green circle. The blue arrow represents a 200 point gain on each trade. Once the trend has begun to level out the opportunity is extinguished and we move on to the next chart.
Tips/Rules
Don't trade against the trend! eg sell at a high break/test of band on an uptrend!
Keep stops loss tight - if the break and trade entry occurs, but the price keeps moving against you time to get out!
Stay cautious in a sideways market (we will post a strategy for that soon too)
If the bands widen drastically that could indicate high volatility and potential trend change.
Be aware of new releases and high importance data when entering set up.
Good luck!
Orion Fx Trading Team
EDUCATION: Bollinger Bands Hello, dear subscribers!
The next topic of our education is the Bollinger Band channel.
What is Bollinger Bands?
BB channel consists of three lines: the moving average of close price, the MA plus/minus 2 standard deviations. This channel defines the most likely price swings range.
How to trade with BB?
There are two different situations for the BB trading.
The first one is the trading during the consolidation phase.
You should open the long positions when the price broke the lower BB and close when it reached the centraline. The short position you can open when the price hits the higher BB and close on the centraline.
The second situation is the trend trading. According to theory the periods with low volatility are preceded by the high volatility periond. When the the volatility is low the BB channel is squeezed and it is a good time to searching for the potential trend beginning. You can use Money Flow Index or other volume-based indicators for the trend confirmation. For example, when the price hits the higher BB and the money flow index value rapidly increased it can be the evidence of potential uptrend beginning.
The most difficult and important problem of the BB trading is the trend direction definition. If the trend is defined correctly this strategy becomes very profitable.
IQ flipping key technical indicators for bull runIntroduction
I have been watching IQ on and off for almost its whole life and after a few initial long term entries and swing trades I have left it alone. It is beginning to flip some switches for me that suggest this is going to time to be a whole lot more attentive. IQ has a relatively short life to look for long term signals and so some of these charts have particular time frames and settings. This was part of my beginning of the month analysis I do when I sort through my watchlist so I don't have new positions on right now but I will over the next couple of days.
EMA Ribbon
The chart on the left is set to two weeks and displays the EMA ribbon. I would prefer to use the monthly time period or even the three week but the full ribbon doens't show except on the two week setting, so here we are. The main chart texts hits the high points, namely that the price action with only a day left has found strong support on the two week ribbon and the EMA ribbon is finally starting to unfurl bullishly. It takes a lot of pumps to get the 20 to cross bullishly over the 55 EMA and it finally happened this period.
Volume Profile
The right side has what I call my "volume and breadth" chart as I use it to look for price action to go coast to coast (or edge to edge) on the various indicators, and it is anchored by volume analysis. The first "edge to edge" we look for is for it to go from one value area to the point of control and if it finds support we look for price action to go the other value area. Historically we see that would be about a 2x. We can see that price action fell short on two attempts and if you were not a greedy little piggie and you took profit 5% below the value area you would have had a great exits. This sets up a key point: during an full blown bull market the price action has to mount the upper value area and find support on it repeatedly. For confirmation that we are in an uptrend I would love to see the price action move above and maintain above the upper value area and see the Point of Control move up to the node at $22 and the lower value area move up to the current point of control at $18. This may take several months to develop. When the price action goes back into the value area there is a chance that it will return to the point of control. and from there the lower value area
Ichimoku Cloud
Almost as a side show at this point is the fact the ichimoku cloud has turned green and is beginning to thicken. At this point it is just another confirmation signal and I don't think it gives us enough for full blown cloud analysis. As price action gets above the cloud we can start looking for T-K Crosses. When the volume profile upper value area and cloud are in the same vicinity it is a sign that the move has a lot of support. When the price action and cloud get high above the upper volume area we are in full blown bubble territory. It is my plan to get into the bulk of my position before or as that happens. You can see that happen on bitcoin on the daily chart here.
On Balance Volume
I often have the red fast EMA at 10, the blue medium at 20, and the slow EMA in green to 100 period but that doesn't provide any real information except that volume action is above the slow ema. As such I set the OBV EMAs to 25, 50 and 75 which has some prima facie validity as common sense settings. On these settings we see that the OBV has finally tested the slow EMA as support and after some activity, established a bullish ordering of the OBV, fast, medium and slow EMAS. This bullish ordering clears up a technical limitation that would prevent more cautious investors with a mature understanding of volume for going for long term holds.
MACD
The chart below is set to the one month and shows the default MACD EMAs. I don't bother to show the full MACD w/ histogram becausae it doesn't really exist. THere is only a couple of period on the signal line so that isn't helpful at all. We clearly see the price action is causing the EMAS to be cents away from a cross and price action has tested both EMAs as support. This still has a full month to develop though.
What I am doing
That was a whole lot of analysis to get to my personal strategy. With everything pointing to a bullish set up I can now look at buying dips with confidence for a long term holds. The places to buy are going to be any time price action has popped out the daily bollinger band (in yellow) and definitely any time it pops below the baseline of the weekly bollinger band (in blue). The weekly bollinger band doesn't have the lower limit because where we are going, we don't need it, perhaps for years. Seeing it below or finding support on the weekly baseline is also going to be a place where I buy call options, especially with bullishness on other indicators like the MACD or RSI (Not show).
Of course, I am not qualified to give financial advice and this is just me developing a more robust battle plan for myself.
GBPAUD on the riseGA broke out of its downward channel two weeks ago and is still trying to gain its momentum to the upside. I would like to see GA form some sort of stop hunt to the low before I enter a buy. Price reaching 1.805 would be ideal but, I will be reactive nonetheless... (hence all of the alerts, haha) let me know your thoughts in the comments below.
Bollinger Bandit Trading StrategyThis trading strategy gives trading signals when price breaks through the 1 Standard Deviation Bands of a 50-period Bollinger Band. Buy signals are generated when price breaks through the upper 1 Standard Deviation Band. Sell signals are given when price breaks through the lower 1 Standard Deviation Band.
Buy signals are confirmed when the close of today was greater than the close of 30-days ago. Sell signals are confirmed when the close of today is lower than the close of 30-days ago.
Gold In The Cross HairsYesterday gold had my account RED red however when I went to bed I knew today would be a LONG day and literally XAUUSD is SUPER LONG!
My last post I questioned which way XAU would go. Once the sessions overlap were over the bulls came and start tearing into the bears raising prices back into the $1900 range.
London session came on line and went stupid with the day and by the time I woke up at 6 a.m I was already $200 in profit.
I say that to say this is patience game.
More Patience, More Profits
Expecting Bullish Price Action on CRM- CRM appears ready to break upwards out of a Bollinger Band squeeze . The same bullish price action occurred when it reported Q2 earnings in late August.
- The Commodity Channel Index , a measure of the current price level relative to the 20-day average price level, has moved above +200. This indicating a strong uptrend is beginning.
- A bullish MACD crossover is also about to occur, signalling a shift in momentum to the upside.
- The RSI indicates CRM is not yet overbought (RSI<70).
- Furthermore, the stock is trading above its 20, 50, and 200 moving averages .
Btc short term outlookOnce again crypto got hit by high correlation to equity markets. This is what happens in risk-off situations when everyone's fleeing to cash.
Pretty much the same scenario as when we dropped from the 11k range driven by trad markets, but less violently this time and didn't really go deep into demand block.
LTF (H1) BB Bot already giving multiple long signals for scaling into a swing long and SCMR turning neutral. Would like to see the same signals develop on H4/H12 and equity behave from here.
LINK longA number of long signals turning up H12 for BB Bot. This is a very significant signal and 90% of the time means that price will reach the upper band. BNB already made a move and I believe that LINK is next.
Band squeeze on H4 indicates that volatility is incoming.
Ofc macro (in this case Nasdaq) can still destroy this but until Tue there's room for crypto to move.