TLTGimme gimme .. haven't posted on Tradingview in a while so now want to give heads up go long TLT very soon with dated calls or shares. possibly even 103 lvl
Bonds
✅US30 BEARISH BREAKOUT|SHORT🔥
✅US30 broke the local rising
Support line and the breakout
Is confirmed because the
4H candle closed below the line
So I am locally expecting a
Move down(after potential
pullback and retest of the broken support)
Towards the target below
Around the 96'16'0 area
SHORT🔥
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DXY | TBONDS | ZB1 |DECRYPTERS HI people Welcome to Team DECRYPTERS
BRIEF Views with connecting DOTS:-
--We are Expecting a DUE Retracement on DXY This week At least to TARGET 1 -
--TARGET 2 will Still be on Cards -
-- ZB1! ( T BONDS YEILD )We are Also EXPECTING them to Rise up as manipulation Move ( 2nd Quarter ).
-- We Also EXPECT LONG TERMS Bonds will Also face INFLOW of MONEY.
--Also peak in rates is probably to be in , so Bonds can Rally .
Stopping Volume Spike TBT. Bull Flag Formation after breakout. TBT, the short TLT 20 year bond ticker looks neutral in the short term and bullish in the longer term. High volume breakout of descending pattern down, and now a bull flag set up. A high volume spike and a stopping bar down has preceded a move up twice over the the last year.
This is speculation over higher rates in the general market and from the fed, which would be correlated with lower equity valuations based on DCFs and opportunity costs associated with being in stocks vs bonds.
Somebody knows something? TLT high volume spike. TLT high volume spike, after short term bullish run.
Declining rate on the us treasury bonds in the broader market have given the 20 year TLT bond fund a boost over the last week. As the rates have been declining on the anticipation of a fed funds pause, the value of long term bonds has been increasing, or moreover moving up for the unrealized loss positions which is what sent SVB to the grave.
Meanwhile; Chairman Powell announced an increased fed fund rate of .25% higher, despite the anticipation of a pause from the general public. At the same time they have proposed a general backstop to the banking system, guaranteeing a full discount swap for these underwater bond assets held by the banks, and guaranteeing depositors their funds are safe to prevent further bank runs.
These actions appear bearish in the general outlook, and in character regarding the necessity of raising rates yet again, as well as the necessity of proving a backstop for the banks so as not fail.
Of course, many have taken these action as a sign of bullishness, as a sign that Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve board will be pausing soon, as he mentioned this to be the case for the next meeting. The fed funds rate is now 4.83 %.
The TLT high volme spike, on a short red candle is indicative of high interest to the short side at this price level, indicating that the potential future move for rates is even higher still; forecasting that long term bonds will remain underwater; and the banking crises with the potential to continue into the near and medium future.
These are simply my opinions. I am curious to hear what you all think. i am open to dissent, corrections of my errors, and alternative opinions, as long as they are evidenced, logical, and factual. what do you think?
TLT the play of the year?looking at TLT cloned the 5 wave ABC pattern and inserted it into now aligning it with the June rate decision to support a bullish move towards the long term 50% Fibonacci retracement level this could be the play of the year during a recession or deflation Bonds should rise
TLT: Trade Idea Before More Fed QEThe signal I was waiting for to start buying bonds was whenever the Federal Reserve stopped or slowed raising interest rates. The Fed held another rate policy meeting this week and only raised the Federal Funds Rate by +.25% instead of the +.75% that had been the trend. We've gone from seeing a +.50% hike in Dec, to +.25% in Jan to +.25% this week after 4 prior straight +.75% hikes in mid to late 2022. Now that banks are failing and layoffs are starting to tick up, this weeks rate hike was likely the last for a bit unless inflation doesn't stay flat or go down before the next Fed rate meeting. You can search "2023 FOMC meetings" for the full schedule.
My thought here is that within the next 12-18 months the Federal Reserve will lower rates and begin buying treasuries again(aka money printing), and I think the time to start front-running that trade in to bonds is now for those who like to accumulate a larger position over time. The best way for the average trader or phone app investor to get into bonds is via "TLT", the iShares 20+ year Treasury Bond ETF, which tracks the 20-year treasury bond price rather than the interest rate on the 20-year bond. As rates go up, bond prices go down and vice versa. Right now I'm betting on rates having topped out(or close to it) and that bond prices are going to go back up over the next year or so as recession fears kick in and stock prices go lower. We've had a deep and long yield curve inversion to boot and those almost always precede a US recession. I have a recent post showing the yield curve inversion vs stocks vs US recessions for reference.
TLT price is trading at decade lows and holding above $100 after a dip down to $90. Seeing the price of any asset hold above nice round numbers is always a good sign, psychologically traders like round numbers.
The lower PPO momentum indicator is showing signs of a potential reversal in momentum from negative to short-term positive, and this is a monthly chart so it would be a significant event. A bullish crossover is what we want to see which is when the green signal line crosses above the purple base line in the lower PPO indicator. That would indicate a short-term return to bullish momentum on a monthly basis.
$TNX & short term yields breaking support levelsWhile the #fed reserve has made it clear they're not stopping rate increases yet, #bonds yields put a top in days ago. $TNX actually did it some time ago!
We noticed certain sectors, like insurance, began lowering premiums done time ago. Did they know something was start didn't?
Small community banks are getting crushed and if rates crater it may alleviate the balance sheets of those remaining.
Anyway, the fed tends to overdo everything they do. Many are calling recession or something much harsher. Time will tell but banks going busy is not a good sign.
#BOND crisis to fuel monetary expansion The Fed is damned by inflation if they print, damned by bank runs if they dont print. And with recession on the way, history shows we could plumb to new lows if the Fed only prints enough to backstop banks and pensions. Early 2000s and early 1930s were two such cases where the Fed aggressively lowered rates for well over 18 months but markets continued to trend lower anyway. But 2008 ushered in central bank quantitative easing, so with QE at the Fed's disposal, it is more likely the growth of M2 will accelerate which will keep inflation stubbornly high if not higher.
A new factor that wasn't present before is that we have increasing M2 from China and Japan which has been a large driver of the market bounce we've seen in stocks and crypto since the start of the year.
The 2-yr and 10-yr rates are heading lower in a hurry. CME Fed futures currently predicts one more 25 bps hike to a terminal rate of 500-525 then three consecutive drops of 25 bps. Higher inflation would become the standard as the Fed would be forced to accept a higher inflation target well above 2% which Ray Dalio had predicted in one of his published pieces.
Financial Crisis 2023 Firstly,
September 2007 - Lehman Brothers collapse
March 2023 - Silicon Valley Bank collapse
Asset correlations (bottom pane):
Gold ( red ) - on a slow rise in 2007, same as today
Dollar strength ( blue ) - bearish in 2007, same as today
Nasdaq (orange) - bearish in 2007, same as today
Indicators' inference :
The top pane shows a logarithmic version of an indicator called MACD leader (zero lag). 2006 - 2007 and 2022 - 2023 have so far been the only years which produce inconclusive monthly signals since 1988.
The middle pane's aim is to signal simultaneous movements of securities and spread graph equations. Each line represents the correlation coefficient between the main chart and a financial instrument. Spread graphs attempt to illustrate peaks in inflows/outflows from equities --> safe heavens through correlation.
Similar to spread graph equations, the idea of accounting for the movement of capital to different assets was applied to make the main chart:
TVC:IXIC*10000000*((TVC:US30Y-TVC:US10Y+TVC:US10Y-TVC:US02Y+5)*TVC:GOLD)^-1
Finally,
Current Retest(D):
Same chart - Longer Period (3M):
Feel free to drop a question. Thanks for your time!
T-Bond futures have completed rising wedge patternThe bear market rally in Bonds concluded with a rising wedge. The pattern would indicate a return to the lows, which is exactly what the Fed should force. The view that the Fed has turned dovish is incorrect. The Fed fully understands (or hopefully so) that a moderate or even severe recession is far better for the U.S. long-term than would be the cessation of rising rates. Generations younger than I do not understand the tremendous damage to national financial wealth that inflation can cause. I am all for a recession. Time to clean out the dead wood.
Inverse head and shoulders on 20yr treasury 1hralso the AD and money flow principles strategy is approaching the resistances level on the 1hr, with a breach of this level I can easily see $103.66 intraday.. D leg if it breaches C leg 103.66
Inflation on 20 years "Borrowed Time"Gold started its rally since 2000.
Whereas inflation and interest rates remain low since 2000.
Reason for the "Borrowed Time"?
Because easy money policy was needed to create:
1) An increase in money supply
2) By lowering its interest rates
Purpose for easy money policy?
3 major events after 2000:
1) Middle East War
2) Subprime crisis
3) Covid-19 rescue plan (it tipped in 2020)
The after effect of the accumulated easy money policy seem to be at its beginning.
Meaning more upside for inflation and interest rates.
Meaning Gold to continue its upward momentum.
For traders -
3 types of gold for trading:
• COMEX Gold
0.10 per troy ounce = $10.00
• E-mini Gold
0.25 per troy ounce = $12.50
• Micro Gold
0.10 per troy ounce = $1.00
See the video version below
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
20 Year Treasury - $TLTRates should continue to sell off until inflation fully cools off or it kicks back up and hurts like crazy causing rates to have to go much higher and the price of this and other bonds to fall substantially. That will be the ultimate test. Everything seems call and collected in fixed income until the Fed has to raise rates higher in 2024 and rates shoot up like crazy for long term bonds and that will be the pain train.
$TNX is weakening, no longer holder better vs short term Yields$TNX has held better than short term #yields but could this be changing now?
-
The 2yr & 1Yr are holding.
-
Of course, it's early in the trading day so we'll see tomorrow morning how things go.
-
In reference to the post last week on #yield in 2008, we need to keep an eye on TOPS in these #bond yields.
It took 1 year at that time before there was a lower high. IMO will happen MUCH FASTER. Perhaps 6 months tops, no pun intended. :)
#stocks #cryptotrading #rates #interestrates
US10Y is on the 1W MA50. Major effect on stocks and commodities!It is only 11 days ago when we called for an immediate drop on the U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) as it was at the top of both its long-term Channel Down as well as the top of the Diverging Channel Up:
The Channel Up now broke to the downside as the US10Y not only hit our 3.550% Target but closed even below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), with the Channel Down remaining the only pattern still valid.
The important development is that the price is testing the 1W MA50 for the second straight day and for the first time since December 21 2021. If it closes the week below it, it not only validates the 5 month Channel Up but also confirms the way for a new long-term downtrend extension towards the 1W MA100.
Needless to say, this will have major consequences on the stock and metals (Gold in particular) markets as well.
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Backfiring BondsTwo financial institutions, Silvergate Capital and Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), collapsed early last week due to a series of ill-fated investment decisions which were exposed by global interest rate tightening. The collapses came after the institutions invested large amounts of capital in long-dated US government bonds, which were considered relatively low risk. However, as interest rates rose rapidly to combat spiralling inflation, bond portfolios started to lose significant value. As a result, when cash demands got high enough, Silvergate and SVB had to sell those backing assets at substantial losses. Silvergate announced a $1 billion loss on the sale of assets in the fourth quarter of last year, while SVB lost $1.8 billion. In both cases, US Treasury bonds comprised large portions of the liquidations. SVB, once the 16th largest bank in the US, then announced a $1.75bn capital raising to plug the hole caused by the sale of its bond portfolio. As one would anticipate, this news resulted in a run on the bank's reserves, and two days later, the bank collapsed, marking the largest bank failure in the US since the global financial crisis. The US government has since guaranteed all deposits of the bank's customers, which has attempted to address concerns of widespread contagion and further runs on other banks' reserves. After the collapse of these institutions, the Federal Reserve announced the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), which will provide banks and other depository institutions with emergency loans. However, JPMorgan has since stated this program could inject as much as $2 trillion into the American banking system, which would nullify all hope of inflationary pressures easing.
All of the talk in recent years has been about protecting the banking system from crypto. However, ironically, we had a situation where a digital asset had to be protected from the banking system. The SVB debacle caused USDC to temporarily lose its peg after it was revealed that its issuer, Circle, had $3.3bn wrapped up in a SVB bank account. The stablecoin fell to as low as $0.88 over the weekend before recovering after the US government's deposit guarantee was announced.
These events have highlighted an underappreciated problem with increasing interest rates to reign in inflation. The issuance of new Treasury bonds with higher yields causes the market value of existing bonds with lower yields to decrease. As a result, all banks that hold a significant amount of Treasurys as legally required collateral are vulnerable to the same risk that has affected banks like Silvergate and Silicon Valley Bank. Recently, it looked as if the contagion effects had spread to Swiss banking giant Credit Suisse when their stock began to plummet after questions were raised about the banks' stability. However, since then, the bank has secured a £44.5bn lifeline from the Swiss central bank. The importance of this should not be underestimated. Credit Suisse manages assets in the region of $1.6 trillion. If the bank collapses, it could trigger a domino effect, bringing about a 2008-like crisis.
All in all, it would be ironic if increasing interest rates failed to lower inflation but instead resulted in a number of banks collapsing as a result of their bad bets on treasuries. Despite this market turmoil, yesterday, the European Central Bank stuck to its plan and went with a 50bps rate hike meaning that Credit Suisse may not be out of the woods yet. In recent weeks, the market had been pricing in a 50bps rate hike from the Fed. However, the collapse of SVB and broader risks to the financial system may lead the Fed to raise interest rates by no more than a quarter percentage point next week, with some institutions such as Barclays expecting the Fed to pause all rate increases.
Despite these events, in recent days Bitcoin has significantly outperformed markets. Since the 11th of March, Bitcoin is up over 20% whilst other asset classes are up between 0-2% with 10Y US Yields down around 4%. The key reasons for this most likely come down to the dampening of US CPI data along with the decreased likelihood of future rate hikes as a consequence of the events of the past week. Ironically, while inflation and bank crisis now look more likely, the expectation of more liquidity has provided risk-on assets, such as Bitcoin, bullish momentum.
Could this volatile move in bonds lead to a market crash?I’m honestly not sure what to think of this chart and it is concerning me.
I was playing around with TLT and MOVE (a kind VIX for bonds) and I noticed that multiplying them together created these extended spikes that have correlated with market crashes in the past.
We only have the two crashes to go buy, so this method hasn’t been tested enough to be that reliable, but the way that it has broke out this week has me concerned that something really big and bad is around the corner.
I thought that maybe the market was already crashing in the past as these were spiking, but that isn’t true: SPY was just starting to make a down trend both times, and likely most thought at the time that it was just a normal pullback in SPY.
One thing I will be watching out for is to go long on the market if that resistance is tapped and also get out of my TLT.
I generally have a feeling when looking at this though that they have completely broke the market now (it if wasn't already broken enough), and the wheels are set in motion for shit to hit the fan some day in the future.
Here’s a pic too, because I don’t like how the interactive chart gets squished sometimes:
ZB - Weekly breakout on Bondschannel breakout and weekly rsi breakout on Bonds. Minimum target 140, 160 or higher if things get really ugly in the stock market.
Dollar & VIX ripping, Yields cratering, Stocks fallingGood Morning!
We've been mostly cash when it comes to #stocks. Been defensive as we have #GOLD #SILVER #BCH #BTC (#crypto #altcoins in personal) some $VIX & some bigger VALUE names, added some more today $AMGN $VZ as examples.
We've reduced the exposure as the direction seems south but anything can happen.
FEAR is the word. #Dollar ripping again & bond buying.
$DXY looks good & bounced off of support.
Look @ yields CRATERING again.
1Yr & 2Yr #yields COLLAPSING!
10Yr HOLDING MAJOR SUPPORT & back at level it was 2 days ago.
We noticed something some time ago & will post soon.
$VIX is trading in a new range now & closing in on the TOP part of range. 2 things can happen here. Either we rip through, likely causing a COLLAPSE in #stockmarket OR IT pulls back to the 23ish range and keep in this new range & fear eventually subsides.
TLT 600point Pop From Previous Pattern, What Next?In this update we review the recent price action in the TLT etf and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objectives to target
US02Y is on a breaking point. Great news for stocks!The U.S. Government Bonds 2 YR Yield (US02Y) is testing its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since May 31 2021. The 1W RSI is on the very same Lower Highs trend-line rejection that it was during the December 17 2018 1W MA50 test!
Needless to say this shows that the price is on a critical point as when it broke in Dec 2018, a downtrend followed that was at the bottom of the U.S. - China trade war and sent stocks (black trend-line = S&P500) on a 1 year mega-rally (until the COVID crash).
Will we have a repeat?
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