Get started

Bonds

$TNX Bouncing nicely as are shorter maturity YieldsWas kind of expected to get some bounce from #Bond #Yields. The last two days, especially yesterday, was RARE in yield price action. It happens but it's rare. The buys could have been investors trying to take advantage of higher rates being that they are "expecting" the Fed Reserve to lower rates. We mentioned that most yields, when we posted, were at or close to support levels. So the bounce we are getting today is not unexpected. Furthermore, the gap from two days ago attracted and it is filled today. $TNX was also oversold. Yields from here are tough to gauge but likely go a bit higher.
TVC:TNX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Recap of my trade for todayGood afternoon and good evening traders! I'm sharing with you a recap of my trade for today, actually we caught the 1st up trend after breaking the support line with a quite high volume, then after having the highest volume of the day on the candle I put the 2nd arrow at we added another position to finish the trade on the market with 2 contracts and a respectful profit after seeing a squeeze of buyers and closed at the end of the red candle I put an arrow on. After that the price broke the support line of the channel I shared the trade with you too early to make some profit of it. For more questions don't hesitate to ask and I'll be answering with pleasure. PS: The autocorrect changed the FUTURE to FEATURE on the post I posted this morning
CBOT:ZB1!
by YassineAnalysis
Biggest Drop since 2008 - Right After our Post 🙄Good that I always TRUST my Charts: US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield has dropped 'nicely' since my last post, which was 'against the stream' since when i posted it Powell was being extra-Hawkish and situation was different. News: The yield on the 2-year Treasury note fell sharply on Friday as the shutdown of Silicon Valley Bank sparked a flight to safer assets such as government bonds. The yield shed at least 46 basis points over a two-day period, a sudden decline not seen since September 2008 , when the markets were in the throes of the global financial crisis. Perhaps by no coincidence, the flight to bond safety this week was caused by the biggest bank failure since the financial crisis. These were supposed to be 'Good news', rates could ease and markets (and crypto) could do better but unfortunately it all happened for the wrong reasons: Some Banks going bust. Better check my other posts today. Everything changes FAST so watch out for the CPI tomorrow: If inflation is better the Feds are saved...if inflation persists we could ALL be in DEEP trouble. One Love, The always optimistic Professor
TVC:US10YShort
by FX_Professor
So... Recession Confirmed? With oil breaking bullish support, it's safe to say that demand has been cratering around the world. As Jeff Snider has discussed for months now, if the supply constraints on oil aren't driving oil higher, then there must be a serious demand problem. Overheated economy? I think not. Add to that Gold up and Yields down and that means low growth + low inflation. Also not good. So what's the trade? Well, I think we might be at the start of what Alex Gurevich has called the mother of all bull markets in bonds. Some of these options on bonds could pay out 10x to 20x (i.e., eurodollar futures, SHY, TLT, etc). Interesting times to live in.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by sacredprofit
Yields are CRATERING - WHy?The Debt Market is significantly larger than the #stockmarket so it's VERY IMPORTANT what happens there. It's way too early to see data but, JUST A HUNCH, this is most likely the #FED stepping in & buying bonds trying to calm the markets. This is not normal to see #yields cratering so much. The 1Yr is off almost 3.26% The 2Yr is off 5.01 The 10Yr is off 5.33% This is causing more of an inversion to the yield curve. On other news, banks faltering isn't helping the case for stability or easing the fears of #economy being in turmoil.
TVC:TNX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Japanese have been selling bonds, have Yields peaked for now?One of the reasons US Treasuries, and other bonds, have been selling off is the dumping by Japanese investors. All duration #YIELDS have done well but more so the shorter term. The Inverted Yield Curve has widened over the last few months but has been significantly lately. However, today we see the 1 & 10Yr ($TNX) selling off but the 2 Yr is CRATERING! Interesting. Also interesting is that volume has been waning for investment grade and high yield bonds. Liquidity could be an issue later on if this continues.
TVC:US02Y
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
The market is at critical supportI multiplied SPY, DOW, Nasdaq and TLT together to get a broad picture of the state of the US market and have noticed this channel here. We are now at a critical bounce area established by the covid bottom and 08 bottom. If it doesn't hold this, then to me it would be safe to assume that this decade long trend is over and it will be reshaped into a new trend after lots of pain just like in 08. I'm obviously hoping for the yellow line to play out, but it will requite lots of competence from the leaders of the banks and the world to get it in that direction, competence that seems to no longer exist. If you look at raw material charts like steel, wood or even gold and silver, one would assume the deflation goal has been reached. However, the FED's real goal has never been to fight inflation , but to fight low unemployment, because businesses would rather do share buybacks than invest in their employees. thehill.com And we haven't seen news of mass layoffs yet, or government bailouts of failing companies, so Powell's thirst for homelessness hasn't yet been quenched. You can also see that CPIAUCSL has flat-lined since May and the last time it did this after a big ramp up was just before the huge waterfall in 08. I'm not sure how much stake to put in that correlation though, since it has only happened once on the chart. It still is something to be concerned about though. UK has reached their pressure limit yesterday, so there's some bullish news. As the UK starts QE, it should put pressure on Powell to give up his tough guy act after messing up so badly in 2020-21 with the endless money printing. If this support fails, I think something like this chart I made earlier will be the more accurate one: This chart uses similar calculations, but instead divides by US10Y instead of multiplying by TLT, this gave me more data to work with, but also changed the chart a little bit to show more bearish possibilities. But I think this is generally a really safe spot to start going long for a bounce and then just keep a stop below the thick support line. Interestingly, the darker blue line and thick blue line are acting as support at the exact same spot. I always find coincidences like that in charts interesting and to me usually means there's even more support there than just one line. We can't get 100% bullish until that orange megaphone resistance is broken though, so keep that in mind. Thanks for reading and good luck out there.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Lynxys
18
A focus on the importance of support and resistance levelsSupport and resistance levels are the lost art of trading any market. In using support and resistance zones, I also use various MA's (Moving Averages) to assist me in finding the perfect entry. Now no trading strategy is completely waterproof. The market will act and react however it wants to, and a multitude of factors can drastically alter price action so take this advice at your own risk. I'm looking to provide a series of videos to assist me in providing this information in a more clear and more concise manner. Support is a zone at the bottom of a trend or series of trends that acts as a trampoline, or (support) to the upside. Resistance acts as a ceiling, or (resistance) that favors movements to the downside. Draw these zones using either a rectangle on higher timeframes or two horizontal lines. There's not a single price that can act as either support or resistance. To create a larger margin of error, we use these zones. These zones usually make up anywhere from 20-30 pips, depending on the symbol in question. Use the MA's to show you where the trend is heading. Bring in other factors such as market sentiment, geopolitics, economic statistics, news breaks, and anything else that can act as confluence in determining where the market may go next. I use anywhere from 3 to 5 levels of confluence before I even think about entering the market. NEVER impulse trade. I also suggest never trading pre-news. When a red folder news event occurs, the market can shake, or "whipsaw" causing price action to rubberband in either direction. These moves are aimed to close retail traders' accounts, and the market wants nothing more than to take your money. More to come in a future idea - stay tuned. Happy trading, and as always, use responsible risk management when trading any financial market. Swindle
Education
by Swindle
1
Show me a chart that matters more than this?The chart I've created here shows yield on the US 10 Year Treasury Bond. The white line shows its percentage change over the last 12 months. The red line shows the S&P 500. It shows the S&P 500 over the last 12 months. What more needs to be said? The S&P 500 is red over the last year while the yield on bonds continues to rise. REMEMBER: with every increase in bond yield, the risk for things like stocks becomes more difficult. A bond will pay you close to 5%. Apple, on the other hand, will pay a 2% dividend. If Apple does not grow at all, or increase buybacks or new products, or if a recession hits, then the bond yield is indeed the better trade. The further these two assets widen, the more difficult the trade off becomes. HOWEVER, that's not to say that stocks and bond yields cannot go up at the same time. Actually, in prior bull markets, they have risen together. If innovation continues, if economic growth continues, and if inflation starts to get under control, we very likely could see this gap shrink in an instant. I am watching insider transactions to see how much faith top directors, teammates, and employees have in their respective company. Several CEOs have recently bought large chunks of shares out of their own bank accounts. What do this say? Thanks for reading!
AMEX:SPY
by scheplick
2
🔥 Bond Yield Curve Inversion Reaching -1%: Why It's ImportantAn inverted yield curve occurs when the yield on a 10-year Treasury bond falls below that of a 2-year Treasury bond. Normally, longer-term bonds have higher yields than shorter-term bonds. This is because investors demand a higher return for tying up their money for a longer period of time. However, when short-term interest rates rise above long-term interest rates, it can indicate that investors believe the economy will weaken in the future. This is because investors are willing to accept lower yields on long-term bonds if they believe that interest rates will fall in the future as a result of weak economic growth. Essentially, they are willing to lock in a lower yield now, in the hopes that it will be higher in the future. An inverted yield curve can lead to a number of problems. For example, it can make it more difficult for banks to make money. This is because banks borrow at short-term rates and lend at long-term rates. When the yield curve is inverted, the interest rates that banks earn on loans are lower than the interest rates they pay on deposits. This can squeeze bank profits and make them less willing to lend. And we all know, less money in the market means less potential (risky) investments. An inverted yield curve can also be a sign of a potential recession. Historically, an inverted yield curve has preceded every recession in the United States since WW2. This is because an inverted yield curve can indicate that investors are pessimistic about the future of the economy. They may be selling off stocks and other assets, which can lead to a downturn in the stock market and a decline in consumer confidence. In conclusion, an extremely inverted yield curve like now is a situation in which short-term interest rates on government bonds are higher than long-term interest rates. This can indicate potential economic problems, including a recession and difficulties for banks. While an inverted yield curve is not a guarantee of a recession, the probability of the current yield inversion suggesting a coming recession is very high. It's going to be an interesting year.
TVC:US10YShort
by FieryTrading
9
TLT - iShares Long-Bond ETF / US30 - Scalp Short, Switch LongThe TLT 20+ year bond ETF has, at this point, been bearish since August. Personally, I thought after the late December-early January push upwards that TLT would have made a new high before dropping for a while because yields were trading a lot lower than the Fed rate, but that move never transpired and the shares have instead been mucking around. I don't specifically like this price action for puts/shorts, because there's two big factors that make me believe TLT is going up: 1. On the monthly bars, there's nowhere lower for TLT to go, unless you believe a new all time low is coming: Monthly The 2014-2015 lows were taken during last year's bear pulses, in fact. The same can be said for the weekly candles: Weekly When taken in light of the fact that TLT has not traded like it wants to go down for the last three months, this really is a spot that I think a trader has to either stay flat or look for a long at lower prices. However, there's a big tell that there's a premium short scalp opportunity manifest in US30, the 30-year US Treasury Bond: US30 30-year US Treasury Bond - Daily The key factors are: 1. July of '21 was a complete gap fill 2. December of '22 made a lower low 3. The enormous November CPI surprise pump candle gap has been left untouched 4. The '22 year end retrace left the psychological 99.xx level untouched 5. The retrace on TLT to $99.60 was only a sweep of range equilibrium, evidenced by the fact that a new high has not been set. The FOMC candle failed to set a new high, too. And all of that combines to lead me to believe that the US30 has in the range of 6-10 percent to retrace, and imminently, which would drive TLT down by $7-11. Moreover, a $10 raid on TLT would make a lot of sense if there's about to be a significant moon mission in the markets. It would take out the December pivot lows, rebalance the CPI-candle gap, and give permanent bears a chance to lose their accounts going short at the bottom. But I believe if you're going to go short here, you have to treat it as a scalp. Because there's no downside left besides setting a new all time low on the ETF, which mirrors the bond market in its own manifestation, chances are we go up. Moreover, with the Fed clearly slowing the pace of their rate hikes, there's no reason to believe bond yields will exceed 5% for more than a few days until late 2023 at the earliest. $98-95 TLT would be a long with targets at $120 and $130. When the markets start to go up again, you have to avoid being short, but you also need to be super, super careful being long. The reason is that the situation in China with Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party being sacked by the Wuhan Pneumonia pandemic is many, many, many times worse than we're being led to believe by establishment media and social influencers. The number of deaths in China has been terrifying, and whenever you're dealing with so many excess deaths, a country is going to lose a certain percentage of its engineers, technicians, and supply chain. This, in my opinion, is the real reason companies like Apple are moving their production out of China. So one day in this lifetime of ours when the CCP falls like the USSR did, it will happen overnight, and China daytime is US night time, meaning the US equities and bond markets will go gap down, but this time they'll just stay gap down. Moreover, the world will change when the Party is gone. The normalcy we've become accustomed to and this way of living as human beings will all change. But the transition won't be so pleasant. It's very important to value virtue and do your best to cultivate your heart. Atheism and the theory of evolution are unscientific poisons. Never forget this.
NASDAQ:TLT
by LordWrymouth
US10Y Double rejection. Targeting the 1D MA200.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern ever since the October 21 2022 High and even though there might be a Diverging Channel Up (dashed lines) emerging, the current level makes a strong Resistance cluster. With the 1D RSI also rejected twice on its Higher Highs trend-line, we are turning bearish on the US10Y again, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which supported the price twice on January 19 and February 02. Potential contact (as a target) can be made at 3.550%. We will continue to be bearish only if the 3.320% Support breaks. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
3
Interest Rates are Moving Again - Breaking Above Recent High2 year, 5 year, 10 year and 30 year yield are all showing a similar characteristic: · Low established in 2020 · Major support trend started forming since then · Seem to have completed its retracement with a double-bottom · Resuming on its major support trend · Target to break above its recent all-time high set on Oct 22 Chart illustrated a 10 year yield futures market. Interest rates and yield moves in tandem, why? Borrowers (for eg. home owners with loan) take reference from interest rates and lenders (or investors) take reference on the yield. Interest rates and yield moves in tandem. Meaning if yields are indicating an upward momentum driven by mainly the investors, interest rates will soon to follow or vice-versa. Though interest rates are making a U-turn from its recent low and breaking above its all-time high. Are you seeing opportunity or feeling stress with more volatility ahead? My strategy: • Have lesser long-term hold on stocks • Trading into the indices - Sell into strength and trading into the volatility • Investing into commodities related asset • Buying into dip(s) on yield futures CME Micro Years Yield Futures Minimum fluctuation 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT_MINI:10Y1!Long
by konhow
United States 10-Year Bond Yield - AT RESISTANCE 🤨👎Massive level of resistance has played out and Stocks could power higher as Treasury yields and dollar might ease further. 4,22% has been a Major Support/Resistance level (S/R as you can see on the chart) and the prices down have dropped even lower, below the psychological 4% What does that mean? When US government bond yields are on resistance, meaning they have reached a point where they are likely to reverse direction, it can have a significant impact on various aspects of the economy and financial markets. One of the most immediate effects could be on the stock market. Higher bond yields could lead to a sell-off in equities as investors may shift their money from riskier assets to safer ones like bonds. This could result in a temporary decline in the stock market and a potential increase in market volatility. The impact on the broader economy is more nuanced. Higher bond yields can lead to higher borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, which can slow down economic growth. However, if the bond yields are rising due to a strong economic outlook, it could be a sign of healthy economic expansion, which could offset the negative impact of higher borrowing costs. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy could also be affected by rising bond yields. If the Fed believes that rising bond yields could lead to an economic slowdown, it may adjust its policy by lowering interest rates or increasing its asset purchases to keep borrowing costs low and support economic growth. In summary, when US government bond yields are on resistance, it could have a significant impact on various aspects of the economy and financial markets. It could result in a temporary decline in the stock market, higher borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, and potential adjustments to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. What's next? 🆘 The Feds are lots of data to watch out for: 📌 Fed Chair Powell speaks on Tuesday/Wednesday 📌 JOLTs job data on Wednesday 📌 Fed Beige Book on Wednesday 📌 Fed’s Barr speaks on Thursday 📌 February jobs report on Friday 📌 Final week of Q4 earnings Hopefully, this is a good sign to see a further rebound in the markets and a more dovish Federal Reserve.. unless they are aiming for chaos in which case they intend to raise rates over the 6% One Love, The FXPROFESSOR
TVC:US10YShort
by FX_Professor
4
My Thoughts on Treasury Yields and Why You Should Care5% of on a 1-year US Government Bond Yield? I never thought that I would see the day. Many of us have grown up in a low rate world. Today, you buy a US Treasury bond, hold it for a year, and get 5%. That's more than most stocks yield in dividends, probably nearly double or triple the average. However, it's said that the S&P 500 averages 7% a year or so. Nonetheless, factor in recession fears and the trade becomes even more interesting. What are government bond yields? A government bond is a debt security issued by a government to raise money. When you buy a government bond, you're effectively lending money to the government in exchange for interest payments. The yield on a government bond is the return you'll receive on your investment, expressed as a percentage. So if a bond has a face value of $1,000 and a yield of 3%, you'll receive $30 per year in interest. Why are government bond yields rising? I can list out those reasons for you below: 1. Inflation 2. The Fed is purchasing less Treasuries 3. Economic growth is slowing, which means taxes will be less What are the major implications? Opportunity costs. I'll say it again: Opportunity costs. Everything that is bought, sold, and/or traded now must be weighed against this 5% yield. Do you want to buy Apple for the next year at its current valuation or take a risk to get 5% on a Treasury bond? You can substitute Apple for anything and everything that comes to mind from construction investments to crypto. Do I own any bonds? NO. I missed it and am only now paying attention. Will I potentially add some to my portfolio? 5%? It's possible. That's why I wrote this idea. I want to share my thoughts and add a few of these symbols to my watchlist. I look forward to reading your comments!
TVC:US10Y
by scheplick
4
USDJPY Outlook 3rd March 2023Overnight, the USDJPY climbed steadily to the upside, reaching the recent high and round number resistance level of 137. However, the price failed to break the resistance level, retracing lower down to the current level of 136.61. While further upside could be expected especially if the DXY continues to strengthen, watch out for significant volatility on the Japanese Yen with the recent news that the Japanese bond yields have again risen above the 0.5% ceiling previously set by the BoJ. On 20th December 2022, when the BoJ increased flexibility by increasing the bond yield ceiling, the USDJPY spiked from the 137.17 level down to 133.50 within the hour. In the meantime, look for the USDJPY to consolidate along the current price level (supported by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level) before trading higher again with the 138 key resistance level a target level.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
4
Interest rates - Bond yields... Are they really going higher?Recently the market's expectation for the Fed Funds Rate peaking around 5% and then coming down at the end of Q4 2023 changed, with the market now seeing rates going to 5.5%. Many investors/analysts are discussing bond yields heading to 6% and staying higher for longer. However, is that going to happen? What is sentiment telling us right now? What is data indicating? If rates keep going up, what does this mean for other risk assets? Sentiment right now seems to be quite bullish on yields (bearish on bonds). We are probably near a short-term top for bond yields, and I think this Fed hike may be the last one. The reason is that in Q3-Q4, we started seeing an actual economic deceleration, and inflation dropped significantly. In January, we had some weird data that might have to do with seasonality and adjustments on how inflation is calculated. The critical thing to note here is that rising interest rates act with long and variable lags and that the drop in inflation since July 2022 was caused by factors irrelevant to interest rate hikes. So let's take things from the beginning... Since Covid hit, we have seen tectonic shifts in markets. Many things changed in the global economy, which was already in bad shape. It's unlikely that inflation will be contained for a long time, given that we are at the end of the debt cycle, the end of globalization, we are in a war cycle, we are at war against the climate, and the labor market is changing rapidly. Therefore, bonds will likely substantially underperform inflation in the next decade. In 2020 and 2021, fiscal policy was heavily used over monetary policy, and we still feel the effects of those policies and the aftereffects of Covid. US monetary policy started shifting in March 2022, when the Fed began hiking rates and Quantitative tightening in July. Hence the changes in monetary policy couldn't have affected markets, as it takes more than 12 months for changes like this to have any effect. Of course, we also had the Russian invasion, which caused a commodity spike, and we had Europe and the US spending a lot on Ukraine and war equipment broadly. Then the relationship between US and China started worsening, while China was under lockdown and only started reopening in December - January. The global economy is in terrible shape and will get into a steep recession eventually. Some data make it look strong at times, but it isn't. I think the Fed is looking and acting in the worst possible way, and it's trapped. At the moment, markets are afloat mainly because of human ingenuity, past fiscal and monetary stimulus, and the actions of Central banks like the BoJ, HKMA, and PBoC, as well as the BoE and ECB having some form of QE going on, while the Fed & US treasury is increasing market liquidity by draining the TGA, creating T-bills and bank reserves. It's unclear what will happen when all the interest rate hikes start affecting the economy, but Central banks and Governments will resume supporting markets and the economy. There are several tricks they can implement before they start cutting rates or continuing QE, or doing Yield Curve Control, but ultimately they will get to that point. Now finally, let's get to the charts! TLT / UB look like they are bottoming here. Swept the lows but closed slightly above them. Double top and significant gaps are higher, so that's where I think it's headed. I don't want to say that we will go massively lower, but for now, I treat this as a range, and I don't want to let my view that inflation will come down affect me. My target is the range highs and nothing more. SHY looks like it capitulated and filled a double gap (partially) to the downside. That double gap occurred near the bottom, but now we have a massive double gap open to the upside, telling me it could go higher. Both that and TLT tell me yields down (bonds up)! Short-term yields have been increasing, with US 2y getting near 5%. Maybe that's the psychological level everyone thinks will break easily, but it doesn't. The majority is eyeing 6%. Perhaps we do a slight break above 5% on the 2y, then fall quickly below it. The average bond yield (random average) is at 4.5%, it also made a new high, but this could be a trap. I am not seeing much strength here. The 10y, which I used as the base chart for today, reaches a critical level where the major correction to the downside began and has found some resistance there. Finally, I wanted to discuss a few currencies and some overall observations. EURUSD and GBP are at support but looking weak. I can see how they could have one last dip and then higher, but I don't want to see them go much lower from here. USDJPY and USDCNH are trading higher, with USDJPY being 10% lower from where it peaked. The interest rate differential was the same as now or lower, so something is happening here. Maybe rates are peaking? Maybe the interventions from CBs and Govs are working? Stocks are also much higher than back then, and they don't look like they will go down. Both pairs seem to be back in an uptrend which seems close to peaking. Based on how their charts look, I don't think the USD will keep strengthening, which is telling me that something big has shifted in markets, which is bullish risk assets, and potentially bearish on bonds yields.
TVC:US10YShort
by BitcoinMacro
1
Higher Yields May Cause Bigger Correction On DXYHigher yields may cause a bigger correction on DXY, as yields can be still looking for wave 5 by Elliott wave theory. Yields higher, USD strong, stocks down. Risk-off flows may not be over just yet if yields are in fifth wave. However, when yields will make new high and then top after 5th, thats when DXY can complete B/2 rally, with a lower high, when focus will shift away from US to other CB. However, of course, wave 4 on yields can get more complex if current trendline support is broken, so wave B/2 on DXY may take more time to unfold. Grega
TVC:US10Y
by ew-forecast
1
Yield Curve InversionThe chart above is a yearly chart of the ratio of the 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) to the 2-year Treasury yield (US02Y). The chart is meant to highlight how extreme the yield curve inversion is getting. Typically a yield curve inversion is indicative of an impending recession. Usually, the 10-year treasury should have a higher yield than the 2-year treasury since there is more risk involved when you invest in a longer-term treasury. Just recently, the 10-year treasury yield has reached a record low ratio of only about 85% of the 2-year treasury yield. In other words, investors are being compensated less for taking more risk. As the chart below shows, the rate of change (on a quarterly basis) in the 2-year Treasury yield has been parabolic. Below is the rate of change (on a quarterly basis) in the 10-year treasury which is typically more stable than the rate of change seen in shorter-term treasuries. The chart shows that the 10-year treasury yields have also been moving up at an unprecedented quarterly rate of change. Many analysts look to an inversion of the 10-year yield with the 3-month yield, which has not yet occurred. The failure of the 10-year yield to invert relative to the 3-month yield is likely due to the unprecedented rate of change in the 10-year yield, which has historically remained relatively stable. If the 10-year yield is moving up at a higher rate of change than the 3-month yield, this can delay or prevent an inversion altogether. Check out my analysis from July for a more in-depth discussion on why the failure (or delay) of the 10-year yield to invert to the 3-month yield might be signaling that we've entered into a new supercycle, in which higher yields may continue for the long term:
TVC:US10Y
by SpyMasterTrades
20