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Bonds

Everything has changed.People ask me, "but why is Bitcoin doomed to fall back to Earth?" People ask me, "but why has Bitcoin risen so much the last 12 years then?" People ask me, "but why don't you want me to have a lambo?" I tell people, "Bitcoin is a failure of its own success. Blockchain is the internet of things. It has worked so well that governments are now developing their own versions and realizing they need to regulate." I tell people, "Bitcoin did so extremely well because (-) real interest rates caused any excess liquidity to flow into new pockets of the economy. Look at the yellow box. Most bond holders have been losing money in real terms even though bond prices were going up. You can see that all the growth since 2012 has been artificially pumped up. I tell people, "These last 10-12 years are the quintessential example of a Wave 5 Elliott wave. The sellers had all left. Volume and fundamentals remained low even though prices kept rising. Bubbles formed and whole new markets developed (crypto) as a result of monetizing the debt. So no, this is not like 2018, 2014, or 2011. You cannot compare this next cycle to the previous ones. Either the Inflation Rate (red line) crashes, or BTC and markets crash. (Not Financial Advice. This is my opinion.)
ECONOMICS:USIRYYLong
by MonetaryRebel
2
TNX ZN TKT ZB - 10Year / 20Year / 30YearSh_t Mixed remain Bonds... every flight to Safety has been utterly and systematically crushed. It will be again and again as our Bond Market losses its Pillars of which there are 4. One by one these are failing. Longer-term, the lose/lose proposition will compound. _____________________________________________________________________________ Short term, we'll see how YCC and an overall Market Panic can trend Yields. The Fed has permitted the Bond Market to generate the necessary adjustments. Strenght - historically has been in control of only the short end. Operation twist is no longer relevant, the FED can simply clip coupons and trend into expiration of Holdings while reinvesting across the entire Curve. Sadly, engaging in Yield Curve Control (YCC) crossed the Rubicon. My thesis has been proven entirely correct - instability by design.
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
Bonds Pick UpBonds have found support and made a run for higher levels. The ten year dipped 119'23 into the 118's, finding support just above our level at 118'04. We then saw a rebound to 120'14, which we have been identifying as the next target after 119'23. It will take some momentum to break this level however, since this is a relative high from back in April. We are already seeing steep resistance here confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. The Kovach OBV is gradually trending up, but is a oscillating with the dips, suggesting we need to see more momentum to come through to sustain the rally. If we selloff further, then we should see support at 119'01 then 118'04.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
S&P500 against Bonds during Rate Hikes.This chart displays the ratio of S&P500 against the 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF on the 1W time-frame. The green trend-line represents the Federal Funds Rate. The RSI on the pane below the chart, is illustrated on the 1M time-frame and based on the Channel Down it has been since May 2021, it resembles more the price action of late 2003/2004. Interestingly enough, it was in mid 2004 that the Fed Rate has started to rise following the stock market recovery from the DotCom crash. The Fibonacci Channel with the 0.236, 0.382, 05, 0.618, 0.786 retracement levels is applied on this ratio and since the stock market recovery from the 2007/08 Subprime Mortgage crisis, the Fib 0.618 band was the Resistance. Now it appears that we have moved a level higher on the 0.786 Fib. This model shows that there is no major crash ahead of us and most likely we will trade within those bands for a few years more before a bigger correction/ recession on the stock market. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SP:SPX
by TradingShot
5
US30Y interest rate hike prognosis over the long term.Due to the rising inflation, the Fed has stepped in to reign in inflation. Jerome Powell has stated numerous times he will be aggressive with rate hikes just like Paul Volcker was in the '80s. Powell and Volcker are of the same school of thought. "Inflation emerged as an economic and political challenge in the United States during the 1970s. The monetary policies of the Federal Reserve board, led by Volcker, were widely credited with curbing the rate of inflation and expectations that inflation would continue. US inflation, which peaked at 14.8 percent in March 1980, fell below 3 percent by 1983. The Federal Reserve board led by Volcker raised the federal funds rate, which had averaged 11.2% in 1979, to a peak of 20% in June 1981. The prime rate rose to 21.5% in 1981 as well, which helped lead to the 1980–1982 recession, in which the national unemployment rate rose to over 10%." - Wikipedia on Paul Volcker What does that mean for us? In essence, lower equity prices, temporary economic contraction and higher lending rates to reign in cheap capital. Looking at the 30 year US government Bond Yields (US30Y), I am expecting yields to continue to increase from current 3.2% --> 4.1% --> 4.8% --> 5.5% and finally 7.2%. If inflation continues higher, then rates will likely continue to rise over the next few years. The era of cheap lending is over. Trade safely.
TVC:US30Y
by DenisRisticFX
Bonds Benefit from Risk-On OutflowsBonds have picked up, breaking through several of our upside levels. We set a target of 119'23, and that is exactly the level we've reached. We are seeing signs of resistance here from several red triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has picked up however, but it is doubtful momentum will take us much further, given the market conditions. If we are able to break out again, then we should see resistance at 120'14 and 121'00, who relative highs. From below we will have support from 119'01 and 118'04.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
US10Y broke a historic trend-line from 1981. What's next?The US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield, broke last month above a historic Lower Highs trend-line that has been holding since September 1981. This chart is on the 1M (monthly) time-frame. By doing so, it also broke above the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in history as well. Even though it hasn't broken above the previous Lower High of November 2018, which is currently the Resistance, we have to consider the implications of this historic break-out. The 1M RSI has also hit a multi-year long Higher Highs trend-line and got rejected, making it a Resistance. Unless the November 2018 High breaks, we may see the 1M MA200, even the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) being tested as Supports. A break above the November 2018 High though, will basically confirm a historic change on yields, especially as the Fed has already announced plans to continue raising the interest rates aggressively in an attempt to battle the raging inflation. The green trend-line on the chart represents the Federal Funds Rate and as you see its Highs have historically matched roughly the Highs of the US10Y. Since the Rate is now still relatively low and as per the Fed's remarks, we are still early in the rate hike cycle, we can see the US10Y break much higher in an aggressive manner in the following months. So what do you think? Does this break mark a historic change on bond yields? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10Y
by TradingShot
5
Joe Gun2Head Trade - US 10 Year Yield topping out?Trade Idea: US 10 Year Yield topping out? Reasoning: Head and shoulders top on the hourly chart Entry Level: 2.842 Take Profit Level: 2.617 Stop Loss: 2.922 Risk/Reward: 2.81:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
TVC:US10YShort
by Signal_Centre
Waiting for the worst...In the chart we have the SPX versus the US10Y (US 10 Year Government Bonds Yeld Rate, in the blue line). We are at a peak moment. In principle, the rate in US10Y is inverse, that is, when it goes down, more people are buying — more people leave the stock market and buy government bonds. The correlation with SPX is high in periods of extreme volatility, as shown in the circles. Frighteningly, the US10Y is close to the same levels as March/2018 and October/2018. If it drops like it did before, will we see a strong correction in global markets? Analyzing the US10Y alone: The US10Y has broken up a long bearish channel. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicates an extremely stretched value, signaling a possible reversal to the downside. On the weekly chart it is in a resistance test region, similar to the periods mentioned.
SP:SPXShort
by andre_007
US10Y-US02Y Yields Are Steepening NOWAhead of incredibly important CPI data to be released tomorrow, we are seeing yields steepen in a very dramatic fashion. In comparison to each of the last 3 inversions, this one is not even close to the past. It is important to understand that when yields steepen , it systematically leads to downside in the SPX/NASDAQ. It has been the indicator of almost every recession since 1980 . Now we can't jump to conclusions just yet, we can only try to anticipate what comes next. Tomorrow key CPI data gets released which is why markets are selling off in the face of it. This data will be the reason for the next move up or down. Focusing back on the chart, we can see just how far yields have deviated from the 200MA. In comparison to the past, this is the farthest divergence on record. IF yields were to retest that 200MA, it would almost certainly lead the markets down a very dark path rather quickly. We are seeing a clear momentum gain on the RSI to match this. Now let's take a look at the previous two inversions not shown in the chart; (2000, 2008) First, take note of where the 200MA is here in comparison to now. Second, notice when yields are Steepening the SPX is falling. They have an inverse correlation. Take a look at how extended the NASDAQ is still; The same can be said about the SPX; There are very significant moves being made in the markets at this moment, and it will take absolute diligence to ensure survivability if the markets take us down a dark path ahead. For now, pay attention to the data tomorrow. If it is optimistic, we could see some short-term relief. If it is worse than anticipated, watch CLOSELY! The projected CPI tomorrow is 8.4% . That's your best case going into tomorrow (April 12th) . Use it as a measure.
TVC:US10Y
by NoOneWhoIsSomeone
4