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Bondyields

Is Groupon another recovery play?Groupon took a big hit in march 2020 when covid became pandemic. Ever since then it has developed a well formed upward channel to 30-40 dollar price range. It has always been in my radar for a recovery play but however I never press the button to open a position until recently it started edged up from $35-$38 just before its earning release. I was hoping the recent turmoil could bring it back to $35 range but it just never hit my buy order. Of course what happened after is well known by now, NASDAQ:GRPN earning well exceeded everyone's expectation and its price shot way up to $43. While I continue to be bullish about this stock but I always try to control my risk/reward ratio to 1:1.5 like many of my other recommendations. So I would hope Groupon's stock price could consolidate back to $38, which I have already put a buy order there to open a position with $35 as my cut loss... with an upside price target at the mid-way of its trading range prior to the covid drop at $53 dollar....although It may never come back to $38 anymore. If the recent bond yield fiasco cool down back to <1.2% I would be keen to raise my entry point a bit up to $40....At the time of this writing, I have no position in Groupon. If you like my idea, you could show your support by buying me a coffee here
NASDAQ:GRPNLong
by Squishybrain
US10Y Similarities of 2020/21 with 2008/9This study brings forward the similarities of today's price action on the U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield with 2008-2009 on the 1W time-frame. * In 2008, the bottom was made shortly after the Quantitative Easing 1 (QE1) was initiated in order to offset the sub-prime mortgage Crisis. In 2020 the bottom was made shortly after the 1st Stimulus packaged was initiated in order to offset the COVID-19 Crisis. * In 2009, the strong rebound that followed broke above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) but the MA200 (orange) held, emerging as a Resistance and eventually rejecting the price. So far today, the US10Y is way above the MA50 approaching the MA200. * That rebound formed the fastest/ strongest 1W MACD rise in more than one decade on both periods. * There is a Symmetrical Support Zone involved in both cases. * A Golden Cross and a Death Cross preceded both periods. Will history be repeated? ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !! 🎉 👍 Shout-out to TradingShot's 💰 top TradingView Coin donor 💰 this week ==> alanmasters --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10Y
by TradingShot
10
NASDAQ - Bearish or Bullish? As you probably are aware, 10 year yields are have been increasing for the past week or so as the fear of raising interest rates increases. In short, yields go up with interest rates as bond prices decrease. When rates are projected to go up - as markets are a forward looking indicator - stock prices will decline as investors are pricing in a higher cost of capital for companies across the board. The companies that are impacted the most are growth stocks such as the ones listed in the Russell 2000 and NASDAQ 100. These companies get hit harder by decreasing interest rates because they are borrowing at a higher rate than value companies such as Walmart or United Parcel Services. On the 4 hour NASDAQ futures chart, price action has held the 180 day EMA as well as the green uptrend line very strongly since the COVID - 19 crash. There have been two times since December 8th where the NASDAQ futures price action has broken below 180 EMA. In both cases, the NASDAQ failed to turn bearish shortly reversing and turning higher. Obviously, this time it's different for the reason that I mentioned above - interest rates. On the 4 hour chart, NASDAQ Futures has sold off around 9% over the past week - flirting with corrective territory. Previously, NASDAQ Futures sold off close to 12,671.25 before appearing to have turned bullish prior to getting rejected by the 180 day EMA. After the 180 EMA rejection, NASDAQ Futures touched 12,671.25 and appears to making a break to 13,130.50. I am currently holding TQQQ (ProShares UltraPro QQQ) which is a 3x leveraged ETF on QQQ. At the time of writing this, I am currently down on my position with plans to add to my position if NASDAQ Futures can break above and hold the green uptrend line that I have drawn. As of right now, the key level that I am watching is 13,130.50 with hopes that the NASDAQ Futures can break above the 180 EMA (Blue Line) with volume. In my personal opinion, I would turn more bullish on the NASDAQ and even more bullish on TQQQ if the NASDAQ Futures can hold the 180 EMA (Blue Line) with the 20 EMA (White Line) and 50 EMA (Orange Line) crossing over the 180 EMA with volume.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by madisonsoun97
3
US10Y Testing a symmetrical level. Potential Resistance.One of the hot topics in the market recently has been the rising bond yields. The US Government Bond 10 year yield traded this week inside a Zone that has formerly been (from 2011 to 2019) a long-term Support level as clearly illustrated on the chart. With the RSI on the 1W time-frame also entering its Resistance Zone (holding since 1996) and the MACD approaching its own, can this mean that the US10Y has topped? It is not impossible that what used to be a Support Zone, will now turn into a Resistance. What do you think? ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !! 🎉 👍 Shout-out to TradingShot's 💰 top TradingView Coin donor 💰 this week ==> alanmasters --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
4
$TQQQ Market Correction DDThe market was extremely bloody last night, where we saw $TQQQ trading at highs of $98.07 at one point and subsequently closing at $87.90. I believe this can be attributed to the rising bond yields trend we are currently witnessing, particularly in the 5 year and 10 year treasury yield. Between the start of February 2021 to February 24th, the 5 year treasury yield has been steadily increasing at an average of 0.01 to 0.03 daily, while the 10 year treasury yield has been increasing at an average of 0.01 to 0.04 daily. However, yesterday on the 25th of February, this skyrocketed. The 5 year treasury yield shot up by 0.19 from 0.62 to 0.82, while the 10 year treasury yield shot up by 0.16 from 1.38 to 1.54. Typically, when the 5 year treasury yield goes beyond the 0.75% threshold and the 10 year treasury yield goes above the 1.50% threshold, the stock market tend to sell off in reaction to that. This huge one-day surge in yield return as a result of a lack of interest in bonds likely exacerbated the sell-off. I believe that this correction is extremely healthy in a market where a lot of the valuations are rather high; and this is unlikely the "huge market crash" or the "bubble pop" premonition that many investors are fearful for, especially considering the fact that a huge $1.9 trillion stimulus will be incoming. However, it will undoubtedly do us good to remain cautious and keep some cash on the side because in the short-term, the hardening of yields will likely lead to some volatility - which means more frequent dips for you to average your positions; but more importantly, eventually, the consequences of printing these money will likely catch up to us in the form of record-level inflation and interest rate rise, possibly killing the bull run - and we need to be prepared for it. For now, I expect growth from the support zone of this bullish channel back to the $100 to $110 range. This is not investment advice so please do your own due diligence! Support this idea with likes and share your thoughts below.
NASDAQ:TQQQLong
by AntrePoint
2
GOLD and BOND yields. Can they rise together?A lot of talk has been done lately regarding Gold's continuous drop and its correlation with the bond yields and rightly so. As the chart below shows, since 2015 in particular the negative (inverse) correlation of Gold (XAUUSD) with bonds (US10Y in particular used in this study) is evident. Every time the bond yields rise, Gold loses value as the two are in direct competition as low risk financial assets. Bonds in particular offer yields, a characteristic that Gold hasn't. So as the chart above shows, the story hasn't been any different since the COVID pandemic struck the Western World in February 2020. The bonds got sold even lower and while they've been accumulating, Gold was used as a counter-inflation asset and rose aggressively. But since the August peak, we've seen Gold continuously being sold on Lower Highs, while bonds haven been rising and even above their March peak. So will this correlation hold that will have Gold continue to fall as long as bond yields rise? The answer can be found on their historic multi-year regression, which is shown on the study's main chart. As you see my focus is on two periods: * (1) The Resistance break-outs . When Gold broke its 2011 Resistance (at the time All Time High) last July and when it broke above the 1996 Resistance in 2004. Those patterns are fairly similar in the sense that they both initiate a new Bull Cycle for Gold. * (2) The start of the Quantitative Easing in 2008 to tackle the financial aftermath of the sub-prime mortgage crisis and the start of a series of stimulus to deal with the COVID19 crisis. (1) As you see on the chart, when Gold broke above the first historic Resistance in 2004, it got immediately rejected back below it, similar to what happened on last July's break-out (and what we currently witness). At the same time, the US10Y has already entered a Channel Up from mid 2003 until mid 2007. This didn't affect Gold's trend, which as it recovered from the initial Resistance rejection, it continued its rise throughout the bond rise. Since the 2020 Resistance break-out has so many similarities with 2004, we may see Gold having a similar long-term bullish trend (a new Bull Cycle) regardless of the rising yields. (2) That brings us to the comparison between the two "money printing" (or call it monetary easing if you like) periods on the chart. When Quantitative Easing 1 (QE1) was introduced in November 2008, Gold naturally started to rise (after an 8 month drop due to the market meltdown because of the sub-prime crisis) naturally as the market treated it as a counter to the upcoming inflation. At the same time while the yields initally fell, they started to rise (even on a very aggressive tone) in tandem with Gold. The situation brings resemblances to the current times. On March 2020 the first stimulus package was voted to offset the potential consequences (lock-downs) of the COVID-19 pandemic. Gold was again immediately bought as a counter inflation asset while the yields after an initial fall and accumulation phase, the started rising (which is still the case to this date). The above two key landmarks on Gold's historic price action, show that Gold and bond yields can rise together, in fact in times of monetary shocks such as November 2008 and March 2020, that seems to be the norm. Does this mean it is only a matter of time before Gold resumes its long-term bullish trend within the currenct Cycle, regardless the fact that the yields may continue to rise. In my opinion yes and the catalyst can be very much be the upcoming vote on the new stimulus package. But what do you think? Are you expecting Gold and the bond yields to rise together in the coming months? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section! Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !! 🎉 👍 Shout-out to TradingShot's 💰 top TradingView Coin donor 💰 this week ==> Vergnes --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
21
US10Y VS S&P500 Dividend Yield = Market Crash?US10Y = 1.215% (yellow line) S&P500 = 3955 points (orange line) S&P500 DY = 1.48% Personally, I think the catalyst for the next correction in the stock market may come directly from the bond market. The logic is this: if the bond yield (US10) were to return 1.40% why should I take on more risk by investing in the stock market with a dividend yield of just over 1.40%? As an investor, I would prefer to sell equities and buy some bonds. Surely the FED will intervene with control of the yield curve in order to avoid a sharp downward acceleration.
TVC:US10Y
by Moneyrockstarsss
1
This Signal in Bond Yields Will Predict the Next Recession.After one of the most unexpected years, I thought I should take a step back and look at macroeconomics a little bit, at one specific chart that I've been watching. That is the German Government 10-Year Bond Yield (DE10Y). I've been anticipating a signal in that chart that will indicate massive shift in global market trends and will bring us closer to the next imminent recession. That signal is the breaking of the decades-long descending wedge. The momentum is still bearish, and this week the price got rejected at the upper line of the wedge. If this continues downards, then the economy remains in the same state. Central banks are printing currency at an unprecedented rate, and inflation is showing on commodoties and stocks and everything else. Governments are sinking more into debt, and the best place to put your money remains the stock market. That is until this wedge breaks. Because when it does, the bond yields will accelerate upwards. It will become more costly to borrow money. And the economy will slow down again. But this time, it is slowing down while everyone is extremely leveraged and deep in debt. We want to maximize our profit but we do not want to be caught in that state. That is why I pay attention to this chart and the DXY. There are many charts that can indicate the same outcome, but I choose to focus on one only that does the job. Now according to some Fibonacci levels, I predict another touch in October 2021. By then, perhaps the majority of zombie companies will have declared bankruptcy. Is it too soon for that? Will government regulation delay that even further? No idea. Too many factors to watch. So let's keep watching this one key chart.
TVC:DE10Y
by TechNerdOmar
Bond Update #bondsThis breakout trade out of the December range (rectangle)to the downside to the lows set back in March has been even better then expected but as we approach those lows it is decision time again. Because I have good trade location I am going to hold the short position even if we get an immediate term bounce. I am watching to see if we can hold below 169'00. If we can the downtrend is still intact. How price reacts here at 167'00 will be interesting to watch though because if rates are really going to rise this time, the down move could be strong if we can make it below 167'00. Despite the FED and the economy not fully being open, bond yields are certainty indicating inflation for now.
CBOT:ZB1!
by IngenuityTrading
2
US INTEREST RATES - To Go Through The Roof. Here's The Evidence.Using the very latest advances in my AriasWave analysis I bring to you the breakdown of the US Bond Yields AKA INTEREST RATES. What do you think higher interest rates will do to the global economy? Leave your comments below. My analysis using the AriasWave methodology is improving at a rapid rate. Once you learn how to do proper research you will no longer rely on indicators or hunches. Get ready because things are about to get messy in the debt market. Please LIKE and FOLLOW to get notification of updates and future posts.
TVC:TNXLong
by AriasWave
8