Get started

Bondyields

This Signal in Bond Yields Will Predict the Next Recession.After one of the most unexpected years, I thought I should take a step back and look at macroeconomics a little bit, at one specific chart that I've been watching. That is the German Government 10-Year Bond Yield (DE10Y). I've been anticipating a signal in that chart that will indicate massive shift in global market trends and will bring us closer to the next imminent recession. That signal is the breaking of the decades-long descending wedge. The momentum is still bearish, and this week the price got rejected at the upper line of the wedge. If this continues downards, then the economy remains in the same state. Central banks are printing currency at an unprecedented rate, and inflation is showing on commodoties and stocks and everything else. Governments are sinking more into debt, and the best place to put your money remains the stock market. That is until this wedge breaks. Because when it does, the bond yields will accelerate upwards. It will become more costly to borrow money. And the economy will slow down again. But this time, it is slowing down while everyone is extremely leveraged and deep in debt. We want to maximize our profit but we do not want to be caught in that state. That is why I pay attention to this chart and the DXY. There are many charts that can indicate the same outcome, but I choose to focus on one only that does the job. Now according to some Fibonacci levels, I predict another touch in October 2021. By then, perhaps the majority of zombie companies will have declared bankruptcy. Is it too soon for that? Will government regulation delay that even further? No idea. Too many factors to watch. So let's keep watching this one key chart.
TVC:DE10Y
by TechNerdOmar
Bond Update #bondsThis breakout trade out of the December range (rectangle)to the downside to the lows set back in March has been even better then expected but as we approach those lows it is decision time again. Because I have good trade location I am going to hold the short position even if we get an immediate term bounce. I am watching to see if we can hold below 169'00. If we can the downtrend is still intact. How price reacts here at 167'00 will be interesting to watch though because if rates are really going to rise this time, the down move could be strong if we can make it below 167'00. Despite the FED and the economy not fully being open, bond yields are certainty indicating inflation for now.
CBOT:ZB1!
by IngenuityTrading
2
US INTEREST RATES - To Go Through The Roof. Here's The Evidence.Using the very latest advances in my AriasWave analysis I bring to you the breakdown of the US Bond Yields AKA INTEREST RATES. What do you think higher interest rates will do to the global economy? Leave your comments below. My analysis using the AriasWave methodology is improving at a rapid rate. Once you learn how to do proper research you will no longer rely on indicators or hunches. Get ready because things are about to get messy in the debt market. Please LIKE and FOLLOW to get notification of updates and future posts.
TVC:TNXLong
by AriasWave
8
$EURUSD Weekly Outlook - To Summarize - ShortCoT has the commercial banks shorting the EURUSD still. Yeah, they added a few long positions this weel, but that was to get back to a level they wanted to add more shorts. They/ve been shorting since the height of the Pandemic swing. so for the Central banks to start being profitable, the price will have to be below 1.13500. If you draw a fib from the start of the EURUSD commercial shorts to the height of the commercial shorts, you can see it unfold in the fib extensions where price wants to reach. I personally like to see a bit of a larger retracement to the green box notated in this chart during the London/NY session before aggressively going short. Plus theirs divergence in the 10 year bonds between the currencies. As most are going up, the EUR is taking a dip as of recent. DIVERGENCE IN 10 YEAR BONDS Strong Bear tendencies this week. It will be London op and NY open to find the best setups to go short.
Short
by BodiesXWix
3
GBP STILL BULLISHlooking at the chart we have marked out key levels with active Options strike prices supported with high volume and open interest. We plan to observe how price reacts at 1.3300 and 1.2500 levels prior the the expiration of these contracts. In terms of price action , Cable still maintains an upward trajectory in line with non-commercial sentiments and seasonal outlook. UK bond price maybe trending downwards in line with its inverse relationship with the GBPUSD. However, the Brexit fears may invalidate this move if the trend line is broken and prices fall below 1.2500
Long
by dynamiquebd
Correlation between SG Bond Yields and TLTIn an interesting comparison, Singapore Bond Yields precede the TLT (blue line) slightly, especially in the recent year. See the elllipses marking out the break points, and SG Bond Yields are leading. Noted that the SG Bond Yield has been strongly downtrending, ahead of the TLT bullishess (inversely indicative of the US Bond Yields). I think it signals the undercurrents that something is not as rosy as it appears. The SG bond Yields are telling...
TVC:SG10Y
by Auguraltrader
US 10 Year yield looks to be heading lower soonThe 10 year treasury yield looks ready to resolve its multi-month consolidation triangle to the downside. There's room for another run up to the .70% area over the next couple weeks, but I ultimately believe we are heading for lower yields. Note the fairly swift rejection from the rally above the 50MA at the end of May / start of June. I'm not making any plays directly on treasuries, but watching closely because a definitive break lower in yields would signal that stock markets may be heading for a major risk-off move.
TVC:US10Y
by ZChartDoc