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Bondyields

GBP/ AUD On the Pound Aussie we have a 222 pattern, and right now im waiting for the AMP RSI and HSI to trigger a signal which might Happen here in 7 minutes. Now, on to the fundamentals... the 5 year Pound Bond Yields looks like its wanting to form a double bottom which could attract more investors into the pound if it does actually bring value to the pound. I chose the 5 year bonds as short term investors might look to get in and out and this pattern is on the 1H timeframe. The 5 year Aussie Bonds Yields are in the process of trying to make a Bat Pattern and still has a way to go. and when this happens i can see investors flooding into the Aussie. Now the COT data is interesting both currencies are being driven by the Commercials and both pairs are stepping close to the Zero Line. However, the Pound did have more Favor of selling pressure being relieved. With nearly 18,000 orders of relief. we had 10,000 orders of shorts get taken off the table by the Non-Coms Short for profit taking and we also had 8,000 orders of commercials delievering on their contracts. Now, this pattern might not work out, but the educated guess here out weighs just having technical analysis only. im not looking to take this trade to the moon, but i am looking to capture some pips on the correction before the pound makes another run down.
Long
by ARegularGuy
FR US yields vs EURUSDInterest rates are crucial in the movement of currencies. The blue is EURUSD. Those things are not 100 percent correlated but it is something that needs to be paid attention to. In this post I will demonstrate the relationship between French American bond yields (interest rates) differential and EURUSD. We use 2 principal yields 2 yearly and 5 yearly composite differential. As you see, once the yields differential hits the resistance or reversal level (here we use DeMark and Camarilla reversal levels) - there is a reaction in EURUSD. EURUSD keeps moving some 30 pips more (fakeout?) and then turns as well. On weekly differential chart we see that the differential is at 0 level after a poor bullish breakout. There is also fractal pattern in play. We also see DeMark monthly pivot squeeze on 60 min (DeMark squeeze predicts volatility and turns in the markets). You may also use German yields instead of French ones - not much difference actually. Both American and European yields are in their lowest levels. German ones dropped below 0.
TVC:FR02YEducation
by ICFX
The correlation: Bond yields indicate SPX CORRECTIONUS treasury yields and the S&P 500 have a positive correlation. The two usually move lockstep to a certain degree and when they diverge, they don't stay divergent for too long. This time, however, at the beginning of 2019, the divergence occurred and has continued for nearly 12 months now. The idea behind the correlation is that bond prices are typically inverse to the equity prices, due to the yield of bonds being related to the SPX. From darkest blue to lightest: 30-year yield, 10-year, 5-year. The area at which the divergence began, the S&P 500 gained over 25% while bonds fell about 35%. This leaves us with three alternatives. 1. The S&P 500 corrects 50% to catch down with the bond yields (least likely) 2. Bond Yields for the 30, 10 & 5Year all rally 50% (not likely) 3. The two meet somewhere in the middle. Meaning bond yields rally 15-25% or so, while the S&P 500 drops 10-15%. (a most likely scenario)
SP:SPXEducation
by TRADEPROAcademy
3
TLT weakness & bond weakness, TLT down to $132TLT is a 20+ year bond ETF that made strong highs throughout the rate-cutting cycle and rightfully so. The inversion of bonds vs the equity market has caused bond yields to drop and because of that since the price of bonds is directly inversely correlated to their yields, prices in TLT and other bonds have been increasing. The low rates have come to a halt as the rate-cutting cycle has stopped, or so we think it has. TLT has since then entered a downtrend in a channel and looks to be continuing in that respect. Bond yields are so low, that the convergence with the SPX is imminent, we've seen a slow increase in yields which will further push the price of TLT down. Another factor is that the equity market is continuously showing strength and looks to be on the rise for the next few months based on FED policy to pump more money into the economy. The volume on TLTto the upside has decreased as well and every swing lower is accompanied by strong volume. Disclaimer: This idea is for educational purposes only, this does not constitute investment advice. TRADEPRO Academy is not liable for any market activity based on this idea.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by TRADEPROAcademy
Looking for More Downside Pressure on Gold because of the YeldsGold declined 0.63% against the USD and closed at $ 1459.26 per ounce on Friday, amid strength in the US dollar. In the Asian session, the pair XAU/USD is trading around $ 1465. Gold traders are going to continue to follow the movement in US Treasury yields and the direction of the U.S. Dollar this week. Of particular interest will be the 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds reaction to the 2.06 percent yield (the high from August). Taking out this level could trigger a steep break in gold. On the technical picture, given the series of doji’s, hammers and pin bars around the resistance 1519.65 it was apparent the level was a key focal point. Therefore, we warn that any weak break of this level increased the odds that price action remains in a complex correction. Yet it didn’t even break before bearish momentum returned. The yellow metal is showing convergence with its 20-day MA and trading below its 50-day moving average on the hourly chart. Furthermore, on the daily chart the 20-day MA has crossed below the 50-day MA and both of them are now pointing lower. As the long-term bias is for an eventual break to new highs, the bearish bias is over the near-term, and will later seek evidence the correction from the 1557.07 high is nearing completion. The bearish channel can be used to aid with profit objectives. If a deeper correction extend, we can also use the bullish trend line from the August low. That said, the 1381.91 -1400 zone should also be considered as potential support along the way. Potential catalysts that could influence the price action next days are U.S.-China trade relations, reports on U.S. consumer inflation and retail sales, and two-days of testimony by Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ForexTrendline
TLT Inverse Bond Play Before MeetingThe play for OTM calls on TLT right now is a good risk to reward for myself given the numerous positive potential outcomes. If they don't cut rates, I expect TLT to make a very nice upward move due to bond prices going up and maturity going down. If they cut rates, I still expect bond maturities to go down and for TLT to go up. With the current landscape I am feeling very comfortable with the prices I got for my OTM calls and the ROI. I'll update later today after the meeting which is less than two hours away currently. Happy trading everyone, try and be as positive of an impact as you can be everyday. Good luck with any of your plays today -golddolphin
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by golddolphin
2