10 yrTreasuries look to be signaling that yesterday & today are in fact buy the dip we have risk on sentiment coming next couple weeks.
If we check the weekly RSI 10 yr yields r very overbought, coincidentally so are all major indices RSI weekly indicators.
Conclusion is we are in the final chapters of the bull market since March and another crash is imminent. But will likely be another opportunity to buy the best dip before another massive bull market over the next few years.
Bondyields
10 yrGuys just so you r all aware. There will be no bear market, they have been canceled indefinitely.
Every-time any of you think about getting into bunker and hoarding food, gold bars or paying Peter Schiff Harry Dent or any of the fear mongers just look at my chart. In fact burn it into your brains. Stock always go up. Just buy buy buy. So easy
GBP/ AUD On the Pound Aussie we have a 222 pattern, and right now im waiting for the AMP RSI and HSI to trigger a signal which might Happen here in 7 minutes.
Now, on to the fundamentals...
the 5 year Pound Bond Yields looks like its wanting to form a double bottom which could attract more investors into the pound if it does actually bring value to the pound. I chose the 5 year bonds as short term investors might look to get in and out and this pattern is on the 1H timeframe. The 5 year Aussie Bonds Yields are in the process of trying to make a Bat Pattern and still has a way to go. and when this happens i can see investors flooding into the Aussie.
Now the COT data is interesting both currencies are being driven by the Commercials and both pairs are stepping close to the Zero Line. However, the Pound did have more Favor of selling pressure being relieved. With nearly 18,000 orders of relief. we had 10,000 orders of shorts get taken off the table by the Non-Coms Short for profit taking and we also had 8,000 orders of commercials delievering on their contracts. Now, this pattern might not work out, but the educated guess here out weighs just having technical analysis only. im not looking to take this trade to the moon, but i am looking to capture some pips on the correction before the pound makes another run down.
FR US yields vs EURUSDInterest rates are crucial in the movement of currencies. The blue is EURUSD. Those things are not 100 percent correlated but it is something that needs to be paid attention to.
In this post I will demonstrate the relationship between French American bond yields (interest rates) differential and EURUSD.
We use 2 principal yields 2 yearly and 5 yearly composite differential.
As you see, once the yields differential hits the resistance or reversal level (here we use DeMark and Camarilla reversal levels) - there is a reaction in EURUSD. EURUSD keeps moving some 30 pips more (fakeout?) and then turns as well.
On weekly differential chart we see that the differential is at 0 level after a poor bullish breakout. There is also fractal pattern in play.
We also see DeMark monthly pivot squeeze on 60 min (DeMark squeeze predicts volatility and turns in the markets).
You may also use German yields instead of French ones - not much difference actually.
Both American and European yields are in their lowest levels. German ones dropped below 0.
US 10Y Bond Yield - Lets Get Down To BusinessIf this is the bottom of bond yields. (See Related Idea)
If this is a 1-2 pattern.
If this is an ending diagonal in the latter half of the correction.
Then we are in for some turbulent times.
They cannot keep these rates down much longer.
This is a spring loaded knife ready to get violent.
Won't be long before we see the end of this.
Relationship between US10Y/US02Y Bond yields and the S&P50010/2 year US bond yield ratio is once again approaching 1 and we have already had inversion between the 5/3 yield ratio. Is generally an early indicator of recession.
S&P500 is once again showing volatility after a very extended bull run.
Next major financial collapse is now simply a matter of time.
10 yr yieldI honestly think this is a BTFD here fam the 10 yr looks primed to reverse. And this implies the stock market will boom long term heading into 2021-2024 when the yield finally tests the 200 ema and probably fails leading to another big crash. I think a Trump victory in 2020 all but solidifies this narrative that I am looking at here with the 10 yr
US 2Y yield indicates further FED cuts are almost guaranteedThe FED has already cut the rates by 50 bps in an "emergency meeting" last week. The US02Y indicates that that was not enough and more cuts are needed. If history is any indication, we're looking at another cut of 50 bps or even 75 bps very soon .
Long The Dips On BondsWith the markets pricing in a 95% chance of a 25bps to 50bps rate cut, longing 20 year bonds seems like one of the highest confidence trades in the market.
I am bullish on 20 year bonds specifically, and will continue to be until we see a rate hike which I believe is far, far away. We are likely heading into a global recession within the next 12-18 months, so I rather be on the long side of risk-off assets in anticipation of a move higher.
US 10 year bonds high risk as yield curve shifts (inverts?)Safety in the bond market is at the very short end (as short rates rise, can reinvest at higher rates) and the very long end (rates should decline as economic news deteriorates due to stalled Chinese economy). Most risk is in the 10 year range.