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Bondyields

2 Ways to ride this trendForecast: I am expecting Bund to continue its uptrend going forward next 2 weeks. Currently, this week weekly candle close as an inside bar, suggesting consolidation period. Bund will either expand this coming week or next week. First: Expansion next week, How to get in? Trade entry: Long the Daily demand zone, with stop below Confirmation: Reclaim last week low and eventually reclaim both H4 Support and Last week mid range Invalidation: Daily candle close below Demand zone Second: Expansion this week, first wait for monday range to develop, trade will be active afer confirmation is seen Trade entry: Long at either last week high or weekly open after low of the week is in Confirmation: Break of previous swing high OR Monday being a down candle and Price reclaim Weekly Open Key levels mentioned: - Monthly Open - Last week high / low / mid - range - Daily Demand zone - H4 Support level
OANDA:DE10YBEURLong
by FX20
RECESSION IMPENDING?-MEDIUM TERM VOLATILITY VIX|PREMIUM ANALYSISVIX: Volatility Index - Extension to the US (SPX) Sectors Technical Analysis Series - 17th of August 2019 (9 Minute Read) As it can be observed from the chart, this is an extremely complex(Premium) volatility analysis . The purpose of this chart is to evaluate the probability and the timing of the next recession in the short to medium term. Now, let's breakdown the labels of the chart by starting with the structural build up . The purple horizontal line at the bottom(~8.6) signifies the peak of the cycle and the lowest level of volatility . The same trough in volatility can be noticed in both 2006 and the end of 2017. This is significant because, the first signs of weaknesses in the economy were noticed a year after the peak- in 2007 and 2018, respectively. Since the correction in 2018, the VIX has been building an Ascending Bullish Triangle ; that is currently on D. The top of the channel coincides with previous peaks of around ~50 (labelled with blue). A breakout confirmation of the Ascending Triangle, would be if the VIX closes above the Ichimoku cloud at ~30 ( the black line) . At the same time, the meaning of this breakout will signify the onset of the next recession. Zoomed in chart, showing the Ascending Triangle : There are 3 Fibonacci Indicators that are used in the chart and 1 pitchfork based on the ascending triangle. The Pitchfork and the vertical Fibonacci time frames are used as clues for the timing of the peak of volatility in the upcoming periods. The significance of the Fibonacci Spiral is linked with the breakout of volatility of the Ascending Triangle and a formation of a new equilibrium(by Fib Extension). Beyond Technical Analysis- Applying context to my work: In May I posted my first Wave Analysis of the SPX( #2 Link Reference down below ). It predicts that a recession is impending around Q4 2019/ Q1 2020 . Since then there have been several factors (including the Ascending Triangle in the VIX ) that have intensified the fears of a recession in the near term. Just so I do not repeat myself; some of these factors I analysed in my series about the US SPX Sectors( Link #1, Series Finale Episode #11-XLU ). The recent Yield Curve Inversions ( Link #3 ) is somewhat significant and very contributing factor that estimates a recession within 3-5 quarters of the occurrence of the inversion . This is based on my extensive readings on the literature on US yield curve inversions . Finally! The question that needs an immediate answer - Will there be a recession in the near term ? - The annoying answer is that, there is a high probability. What do I think? - We have certainly talked ourselves and formed expectations of a recession. This is quite unnatural. To the general public and the average investor, recessions are usually very unexpected ( best and most recent example are the recessions of 2008/2001 ). In a Binomial Probability Model : The most contributing factor for the current recession fears, that could reverse the fearful feelings , revitalize the economy and bring back confidence to the market would be a successful US-China Trade deal . Such deal in addition to an optimal outcome to the 2020 Election , would extend the cycle even further. In the most bullish case with a Trade Deal the VIX would continue to trade in a short range and break-off from the ascending triangle pattern. I am quite optimistic that a deal will eventually happen, otherwise President Trump will not win 2020 and a recession will be inevitable by 2021. Of course, we all know that Trump would do anything to win the next elections. >>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>> However, if you'd like to support me and get informed in the greatest of details, every thumbs up or follow is greatly appreciated ! I do realize that my charts are quite hard to be understood, mostly because they are labelled to the smallest and extremest of details. If there are any poor understandings of the labels, I'd be able to answer any additional questions in the comments. Step_Ahead_oftheMarket- {Make sure to check out my previous series on US( SPX ) Sector including 11 episodes of the major US sectors} 1. Series Finale ; Episode 11: US Utilities(XLU) 2. SPX Elliott Wave Analysis of the current Cycle : 3. US T. Bonds Yield Curve Inversion 3 months to 5/10 years: Full Disclosure : This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references or use of my content for private or corporate purposes- contact me through any of my social media channels.
CBOE:VIXLong
by step_ahead_ofthemarket
10
S&P 500, Yeild Curve, Recessions, and BitcoinThe chart below shows the yield spread between the 10yr and 3mo and 10yr and 2yr. When the spread is below 0 (colored in red), the yield curve is inverted. This has been an indicator for coming recessions. The red areas on the SPX are the recession periods. As you can see we saw an inversion last month (march). The next recession is just around the corner and this one is going to be big. With the Fed experimenting with interesting rates and propping the stock market up, and tech stocks, FANG, and the Get Big Fast strategies startups are using, the market is extremely overvalued. I think with the awareness of bitcoin now and the upcoming halving, money could pour into cryptos when stocks start to fall. The confluence of all this makes me think bitcoin will moon. The timing of the halving with a possible market crash is amazing to me. I feel excited for cryptos. I want to buy gold and bonds, safe places for my money, but the prospect of HUGE gains from the crypto market is to enticing. Either bitcoin goes to zero and I lose all my money (all the money I can afford to lose, not my savings or monthly spending) or I become much richer than my parents. Lol. Let me know what your take is on all this!
SP:SPX
by AnotherAnalyst
7
AUD/USD AU vs. US 10 -year bond yield.China Q4 GDP Growth is expected to be at the slowest pace since 2009 at 6,4% YoY. This will probably also drag AUD down because of the high export to China. Meanwhile the Australian rate will be unchanged for quite a bit, where the Housing market index is also due to fall over the curs of 2019. Australian Housing market have been rallying for long time, Now the banks are stepping in to make it harder for consumers to apply for a mortgage loan. The GDP growth is also expected to be at a steady level through out the year. The widening spread between the Bond yield´s is also an indicator of a weaker AUD. After the US 10Y bond yield crossed the AU10Y in start 2018 AUD declined throughout the year. While bond yield´s are still expected to widen, we could see a weaker AUD until mid-year. Holding short position and will add again at 0,70100 and around 0.68200 if it will go that far. meanwhile Monitoring closely the AU data.
Short
by Fx-AlphaStrats
2
Warning- Inverted Yield Curve likelyUS10 US02 This may not look like something to watch and you may not know about it. Only about 2% of investors understand it, however 98% of institutional traders (the “smart money”) watch it like the World Cup finals. Its the 10 year treasury yield to the 2 Year treasury yield ratio/spread. Bottomline: If it goes negative (hits the dotted yellow line) = Inverted Yield Curve = BAD for Stocks and GOOD for Bonds.. I’d reevaluate everything and have stop losses for every trade. Side note: I have no idea what it means for crypto because bitcoin did not exist the last time yield curve went inverted late 2007.
TVC:US10Y
by jgeno
Us 10 year bond yields :Will we breach 3% or will the ppt save uIf US 10 year breaches 3% resistance, Katy bar the door ! I believe this is a key technical level that may trigger a larger sell off in the bond markets. Remember that as the bonds sell off the yield ( interest rate ) rise's . As of right now the yield on a 30 year bond is @ 3.14% and a 10 year is @ 2.96% ! So if you were buying bonds why would you loan .gov the same amount for 30 years vs 10 years when the yield is @ equal ? Answer : you wouldn't unless your the fed reserve bank who is allegedly selling as well, Quantitative Tightening . So who will buy all this debt.... ?
TVC:US10YShort
by rn0269
Out of neutral spread, looking for directional again. Hello Traders, I've exited my neutral options spread on $TLT today for decent gains as price retreated back to the center of it. I am now looking for the potential to add back into a directional position on $IEF (better cost basis then $TLH or $TLT) through common shares if we get a bounce at the 23.6% fibonacci level. Stop will be announced in the updates section if I decide to add back into a bullish position. Anyhow, good luck to any in bond positions. Trade smart, and with a plan. Cheers. =)
ILong
by Daniel.B