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Bondyields

S&P 500, Yeild Curve, Recessions, and BitcoinThe chart below shows the yield spread between the 10yr and 3mo and 10yr and 2yr. When the spread is below 0 (colored in red), the yield curve is inverted. This has been an indicator for coming recessions. The red areas on the SPX are the recession periods. As you can see we saw an inversion last month (march). The next recession is just around the corner and this one is going to be big. With the Fed experimenting with interesting rates and propping the stock market up, and tech stocks, FANG, and the Get Big Fast strategies startups are using, the market is extremely overvalued. I think with the awareness of bitcoin now and the upcoming halving, money could pour into cryptos when stocks start to fall. The confluence of all this makes me think bitcoin will moon. The timing of the halving with a possible market crash is amazing to me. I feel excited for cryptos. I want to buy gold and bonds, safe places for my money, but the prospect of HUGE gains from the crypto market is to enticing. Either bitcoin goes to zero and I lose all my money (all the money I can afford to lose, not my savings or monthly spending) or I become much richer than my parents. Lol. Let me know what your take is on all this!
SP:SPX
by AnotherAnalyst
7
AUD/USD AU vs. US 10 -year bond yield.China Q4 GDP Growth is expected to be at the slowest pace since 2009 at 6,4% YoY. This will probably also drag AUD down because of the high export to China. Meanwhile the Australian rate will be unchanged for quite a bit, where the Housing market index is also due to fall over the curs of 2019. Australian Housing market have been rallying for long time, Now the banks are stepping in to make it harder for consumers to apply for a mortgage loan. The GDP growth is also expected to be at a steady level through out the year. The widening spread between the Bond yield´s is also an indicator of a weaker AUD. After the US 10Y bond yield crossed the AU10Y in start 2018 AUD declined throughout the year. While bond yield´s are still expected to widen, we could see a weaker AUD until mid-year. Holding short position and will add again at 0,70100 and around 0.68200 if it will go that far. meanwhile Monitoring closely the AU data.
Short
by Fx-AlphaStrats
2
Warning- Inverted Yield Curve likelyUS10 US02 This may not look like something to watch and you may not know about it. Only about 2% of investors understand it, however 98% of institutional traders (the “smart money”) watch it like the World Cup finals. Its the 10 year treasury yield to the 2 Year treasury yield ratio/spread. Bottomline: If it goes negative (hits the dotted yellow line) = Inverted Yield Curve = BAD for Stocks and GOOD for Bonds.. I’d reevaluate everything and have stop losses for every trade. Side note: I have no idea what it means for crypto because bitcoin did not exist the last time yield curve went inverted late 2007.
TVC:US10Y
by jgeno
Us 10 year bond yields :Will we breach 3% or will the ppt save uIf US 10 year breaches 3% resistance, Katy bar the door ! I believe this is a key technical level that may trigger a larger sell off in the bond markets. Remember that as the bonds sell off the yield ( interest rate ) rise's . As of right now the yield on a 30 year bond is @ 3.14% and a 10 year is @ 2.96% ! So if you were buying bonds why would you loan .gov the same amount for 30 years vs 10 years when the yield is @ equal ? Answer : you wouldn't unless your the fed reserve bank who is allegedly selling as well, Quantitative Tightening . So who will buy all this debt.... ?
TVC:US10YShort
by rn0269
Out of neutral spread, looking for directional again. Hello Traders, I've exited my neutral options spread on $TLT today for decent gains as price retreated back to the center of it. I am now looking for the potential to add back into a directional position on $IEF (better cost basis then $TLH or $TLT) through common shares if we get a bounce at the 23.6% fibonacci level. Stop will be announced in the updates section if I decide to add back into a bullish position. Anyhow, good luck to any in bond positions. Trade smart, and with a plan. Cheers. =)
ILong
by Daniel.B