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Bondyields

TLT - iShares Long-Bond ETF / US30 - Scalp Short, Switch LongThe TLT 20+ year bond ETF has, at this point, been bearish since August. Personally, I thought after the late December-early January push upwards that TLT would have made a new high before dropping for a while because yields were trading a lot lower than the Fed rate, but that move never transpired and the shares have instead been mucking around. I don't specifically like this price action for puts/shorts, because there's two big factors that make me believe TLT is going up: 1. On the monthly bars, there's nowhere lower for TLT to go, unless you believe a new all time low is coming: Monthly The 2014-2015 lows were taken during last year's bear pulses, in fact. The same can be said for the weekly candles: Weekly When taken in light of the fact that TLT has not traded like it wants to go down for the last three months, this really is a spot that I think a trader has to either stay flat or look for a long at lower prices. However, there's a big tell that there's a premium short scalp opportunity manifest in US30, the 30-year US Treasury Bond: US30 30-year US Treasury Bond - Daily The key factors are: 1. July of '21 was a complete gap fill 2. December of '22 made a lower low 3. The enormous November CPI surprise pump candle gap has been left untouched 4. The '22 year end retrace left the psychological 99.xx level untouched 5. The retrace on TLT to $99.60 was only a sweep of range equilibrium, evidenced by the fact that a new high has not been set. The FOMC candle failed to set a new high, too. And all of that combines to lead me to believe that the US30 has in the range of 6-10 percent to retrace, and imminently, which would drive TLT down by $7-11. Moreover, a $10 raid on TLT would make a lot of sense if there's about to be a significant moon mission in the markets. It would take out the December pivot lows, rebalance the CPI-candle gap, and give permanent bears a chance to lose their accounts going short at the bottom. But I believe if you're going to go short here, you have to treat it as a scalp. Because there's no downside left besides setting a new all time low on the ETF, which mirrors the bond market in its own manifestation, chances are we go up. Moreover, with the Fed clearly slowing the pace of their rate hikes, there's no reason to believe bond yields will exceed 5% for more than a few days until late 2023 at the earliest. $98-95 TLT would be a long with targets at $120 and $130. When the markets start to go up again, you have to avoid being short, but you also need to be super, super careful being long. The reason is that the situation in China with Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party being sacked by the Wuhan Pneumonia pandemic is many, many, many times worse than we're being led to believe by establishment media and social influencers. The number of deaths in China has been terrifying, and whenever you're dealing with so many excess deaths, a country is going to lose a certain percentage of its engineers, technicians, and supply chain. This, in my opinion, is the real reason companies like Apple are moving their production out of China. So one day in this lifetime of ours when the CCP falls like the USSR did, it will happen overnight, and China daytime is US night time, meaning the US equities and bond markets will go gap down, but this time they'll just stay gap down. Moreover, the world will change when the Party is gone. The normalcy we've become accustomed to and this way of living as human beings will all change. But the transition won't be so pleasant. It's very important to value virtue and do your best to cultivate your heart. Atheism and the theory of evolution are unscientific poisons. Never forget this.
NASDAQ:TLT
by LordWrymouth
US10Y Double rejection. Targeting the 1D MA200.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern ever since the October 21 2022 High and even though there might be a Diverging Channel Up (dashed lines) emerging, the current level makes a strong Resistance cluster. With the 1D RSI also rejected twice on its Higher Highs trend-line, we are turning bearish on the US10Y again, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which supported the price twice on January 19 and February 02. Potential contact (as a target) can be made at 3.550%. We will continue to be bearish only if the 3.320% Support breaks. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
3
Interest rates - Bond yields... Are they really going higher?Recently the market's expectation for the Fed Funds Rate peaking around 5% and then coming down at the end of Q4 2023 changed, with the market now seeing rates going to 5.5%. Many investors/analysts are discussing bond yields heading to 6% and staying higher for longer. However, is that going to happen? What is sentiment telling us right now? What is data indicating? If rates keep going up, what does this mean for other risk assets? Sentiment right now seems to be quite bullish on yields (bearish on bonds). We are probably near a short-term top for bond yields, and I think this Fed hike may be the last one. The reason is that in Q3-Q4, we started seeing an actual economic deceleration, and inflation dropped significantly. In January, we had some weird data that might have to do with seasonality and adjustments on how inflation is calculated. The critical thing to note here is that rising interest rates act with long and variable lags and that the drop in inflation since July 2022 was caused by factors irrelevant to interest rate hikes. So let's take things from the beginning... Since Covid hit, we have seen tectonic shifts in markets. Many things changed in the global economy, which was already in bad shape. It's unlikely that inflation will be contained for a long time, given that we are at the end of the debt cycle, the end of globalization, we are in a war cycle, we are at war against the climate, and the labor market is changing rapidly. Therefore, bonds will likely substantially underperform inflation in the next decade. In 2020 and 2021, fiscal policy was heavily used over monetary policy, and we still feel the effects of those policies and the aftereffects of Covid. US monetary policy started shifting in March 2022, when the Fed began hiking rates and Quantitative tightening in July. Hence the changes in monetary policy couldn't have affected markets, as it takes more than 12 months for changes like this to have any effect. Of course, we also had the Russian invasion, which caused a commodity spike, and we had Europe and the US spending a lot on Ukraine and war equipment broadly. Then the relationship between US and China started worsening, while China was under lockdown and only started reopening in December - January. The global economy is in terrible shape and will get into a steep recession eventually. Some data make it look strong at times, but it isn't. I think the Fed is looking and acting in the worst possible way, and it's trapped. At the moment, markets are afloat mainly because of human ingenuity, past fiscal and monetary stimulus, and the actions of Central banks like the BoJ, HKMA, and PBoC, as well as the BoE and ECB having some form of QE going on, while the Fed & US treasury is increasing market liquidity by draining the TGA, creating T-bills and bank reserves. It's unclear what will happen when all the interest rate hikes start affecting the economy, but Central banks and Governments will resume supporting markets and the economy. There are several tricks they can implement before they start cutting rates or continuing QE, or doing Yield Curve Control, but ultimately they will get to that point. Now finally, let's get to the charts! TLT / UB look like they are bottoming here. Swept the lows but closed slightly above them. Double top and significant gaps are higher, so that's where I think it's headed. I don't want to say that we will go massively lower, but for now, I treat this as a range, and I don't want to let my view that inflation will come down affect me. My target is the range highs and nothing more. SHY looks like it capitulated and filled a double gap (partially) to the downside. That double gap occurred near the bottom, but now we have a massive double gap open to the upside, telling me it could go higher. Both that and TLT tell me yields down (bonds up)! Short-term yields have been increasing, with US 2y getting near 5%. Maybe that's the psychological level everyone thinks will break easily, but it doesn't. The majority is eyeing 6%. Perhaps we do a slight break above 5% on the 2y, then fall quickly below it. The average bond yield (random average) is at 4.5%, it also made a new high, but this could be a trap. I am not seeing much strength here. The 10y, which I used as the base chart for today, reaches a critical level where the major correction to the downside began and has found some resistance there. Finally, I wanted to discuss a few currencies and some overall observations. EURUSD and GBP are at support but looking weak. I can see how they could have one last dip and then higher, but I don't want to see them go much lower from here. USDJPY and USDCNH are trading higher, with USDJPY being 10% lower from where it peaked. The interest rate differential was the same as now or lower, so something is happening here. Maybe rates are peaking? Maybe the interventions from CBs and Govs are working? Stocks are also much higher than back then, and they don't look like they will go down. Both pairs seem to be back in an uptrend which seems close to peaking. Based on how their charts look, I don't think the USD will keep strengthening, which is telling me that something big has shifted in markets, which is bullish risk assets, and potentially bearish on bonds yields.
TVC:US10YShort
by BitcoinMacro
1
Interest rates are moving againWhat is moving this week? Our weekly eyeball into the different markets. Interest rates likely to be breaking its all time high again, get ready for another volatile month ahead. Difference between yield and interest rate: Borrowers take reference from interest rates and lenders take reference on the yield. Interest rates and yield moves in tandem. Minimum price fluctuation: 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT_MINI:10Y1!Long
by konhow
US10Y Rejection cluster. Targeting the 1D MA200 again.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern ever since the October 21 2022 High and even though there might be a Diverging Channel Up (dashed lines) emerging, the current levels and the fact that it has failed to break higher in the last five 1D candles, make it a strong Resistance cluster. With the 1D RSI also on such a rejection junction, we are turning bearish on the US10Y again, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which supported the price twice on January 19 and February 02. Potential contact (as a target) can be made at 3.510%. We will continue to be bearish only if the 3.320% Support breaks. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
1
AW 10Y Bond Yields - The Large Pullback Ahead Means Recession...In this video I talk about the bigger picture going back to 1150AD and how I have always anticipated this move up in rates. See down below all videos that are related to this idea. We are in a correction phase of Wave 2 in Bond Yields. This type of expansion means that they are preparing themselves for a recession even though they don't mention it. They know. The FED must always keep the public distracted with the inflation narrative. The truth is that they have to keep the party going therefore they will use manipulated data to justify their actions. This is all done through compartmentalization which is used by governments and the military industrial complex. This is also done to the public to make sure you are happy even though you are losing everything. Sound familiar? The truth is they have been slowly preparing you for the future. Don't think that it's coming because it's been here the whole time. #BoilingFrog. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research. ***AriasWave is not the same as Elliott Wave so your counts may differ to mine if you happen to use it.***
TVC:TNXLong
by AriasWave
Bond Yield Update2Y bond yields still melting up This leads me to believe that tomorrow is gonna be a pump and dump, nobody expecting a rate cut soon, and market still needs to price in a rate hike for July. The algos still have to make their money, so I expect a gap up then a sell off as bond traders price in a rate hike. Remember the inflation target is 2%, the expected numbers are: Expected CPI Tuesday 5:30am USD CPI m/m 0.5% USD CPI y/y 6.2% USD Core CPI m/m 0.4% I think the numbers come in as expected, the market pumps it because it's better Y/Y but then sell off because of M/M numbers like Europe did last week.
TVC:US02Y
by hungry_hippo
4
Bond Yields 1 vs 2 yrThere's still an inversion between 1 and 2 yr bonds, which means the market still has a rate cut priced in for next year. On top of that, it looks to me like we're headed over 5% this year, so even the 1 yr needs to go up. What's interesting is that the rate inversion started at the same time as the market rally, last Oct. I dunno if the market fixes some of that Tuesday or just gets all pumptarded because inflation only went up .5% m/m like Germany did, lol. .5% m/m extrapolates to 6% yearly, and it took then a few hours to figure it out, lol. Remember the target inflation is 2%, and it;s gonna require more than one more rate hike to drop it down. Pretty good chance Tuesday winds up being a pump and dump like Europe, but I'm gonna carry a small position in TLT and BITO puts. Decide against doing a straddle.
TVC:US02Y
by hungry_hippo
US10Y: Short the next spikeFamiliar pattern for the US10Y as with the support of the 4H MA200 it is repeating the mid December +13.50% rise. In perfect symmetry a new +13.50% rise tops on the Resistance provided by the first Lower High of the down leg, same as the November 13th Lower High. The 1D technicals have just come out of neutrality (RSI = 57.935, MACD = 0.009, ADX = 33.193) and an additional short trigger will be the next time the 4H RSI turns overbought above 75.00. Our short term target is right above the Support (TP = 3.340%). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10Y
by InvestingScope
5
US10Y: Trapped inside the 4H MA50-MA200The US10Y, a major driver for Gold, is trapped inside the 4H MA50 and 4H MA200, before tomorrow's Fed Rate Decision. This shows the market uncertainty surrounding this event as investors haven't yet chosen to pick sides. That keeps 4H neutral technically (RSI = 52.167, MACD = 0.014, ADX = 27.887) and we can only trade this with careful points that will be triggered after a level is breached. A breach over the 4H MA200 is a buy (TP = 3.780 / the Resistance). A breach under the 4H MA50 is a sell (TP = 3.420 / the Support). Carefully sell on tight SL further breaches below the Support (TP = 1D MA200 and Main LL in extension). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10Y
by InvestingScope
4
The Rand in the rocky credit markets The economic calendar is wild this week so I thought it would be best to do a deep fundamental dive into the USDZAR . All the attention will be on the Federal reserve tomorrow and whether or when they will pause their rate hikes. We need to look past the hype around the interest rate and the “pivot" narrative. Focus should however be on how the markets will cope with the Fed’s liquidity drain and how it will impact the future price of money ( ie . Interest rates). Before we kick-off, correlation does not imply causation... I’ll start by explaining the chart you’re looking at. What you’re seeing is the positive correlation between the USDZAR and the difference between the South African government bond 10-year yield (ZA10Y) and the US 10-year treasury yield (US10Y). The interest rate differential is referred to as the carry trade potential. Investors can borrow money on the cheap from developed low-risk markets and invest the borrowed money in riskier destinations to earn more interest. The interest rate difference is then pocketed by the investor. The preferred vehicle to capitalise on the interest rate differentials between two locations are government bonds (they are low risk and liquid). The reason for the positive correlation between the USDZAR and the bond yield differential is because when there is risk-on sentiment in the market, investors tend to move funds out of the safety of US treasuries and into riskier assets. The sell-off in US treasuries causes US10Y yields to rise (decreasing the bond yield differential), and the rand tends to appreciate in risk-on phases of the market, citrus paribus. (Decreasing bond yield differential; USDZAR decrease due to rand appreciation). Conversely, when investors are risk-off they run to the safety of US treasuries. The buying of US-treasuries lowers the US10-year yield which increases our bond yield differential. We all know how rapidly the rand can depreciate in risk-off phases when the liquidity wave pulls back to the US, leaving the rand on the rocky shore. (Increasing bond yield differential; USDZAR increases). Our strong correlation however weakened in August 2022 when the US 10-year yield rocketed higher after the Fed started their hiking cycle. Let’s zoom in on the Fed since its Fed week. The most important chart in the market , the Fed’s balance sheet: www.federalreserve.gov . The Fed has so far tapered roughly 5.52% off its balance sheet since April 2022. The Fed is selling treasuries to taper its balance sheet and to soak up liquidity from the market (if there will be enough buyers, only time will tell). This is rand negative. Now let’s get to where all this week’s focus will be, the Fed’s interest rate decision. The Fed is expected to slow its rate hikes to 25bps this week and push rates from 4.50% to 4.75%. The Fed tends to follow the US02-year yield (US02Y) as guidance on its interest rates and it seems as if the US02-year yield has topped out between 4.75% and 5.00%. The Fed pause seems near, and the latest inflation figures from the US supports the narrative that the Fed has managed to cool inflation. The most concerning thing in the market currently is the inverted yield curve: History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes. For the Fed to normalise the credit markets it will have to pause rates. That is usually when something the market breaks and the Fed is forced to cut rates and inject liquidity into the markets. When the Fed pushes easy money ( QE or whatever buzz phrase they'll use) into the market investors rotate from longer dated bonds to shorter dated bonds. To conclude, if and when the Fed pauses its rate hikes, the US10-year yield will melt higher which could be rand positive based off our correlation analysis. Just have popcorn (and gold , silver and other real assets) ready for when the Fed is forced to cut rates/ pivot because that will be caused by arguably the biggest credit market implosion in the history of fiat money. To end off I leave you with the words of Zoltan Pozsar: "commodities are collateral, and collateral is money."
by Goose96
US10Y Approaching the 1D MA50.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) is on a 3 day rebound following a hit on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is the natural Resistance, but if crossed, we can expect a long-term peak at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down pattern that started on the October 21 High. A closing below the 1D MA200 first, would largely be a long-term sell signal that could break below the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the Channel and target the 2.510% Support (August 02 Low) and make contact with the 1W MA100 (red trend-line), which has been our long-term bearish target since October. The 1D RSI can also offer sell entries on its own Lower Highs trend-line. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
5
Short to C wave, but im a buyer of the DipsI'm both a bull and a bear on the 20yr treasury etf (TLT).. I created a long term buy analysis basis on the bullish cypher pattern I see forming at the conclusion of D leg. I like the yield of the 20yr treasury bond which is over 4%.. The dividend yield on the 20yr Treasury etf is 2.49% currently, and I expect it to rise. The dividend is paid monthly. I see the yield rising as the price of TLT declines . I see the dividend yield potentially rising to 4% , that would be an outstanding monthly yield for long term holders. You can also sell puts here, or calls to generate revenue. Long term buyer, and Call writer (which will lower my cost basis, and return use the upfront premium to buy more shares of this etf, further increasing the yield and dividends)
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by moneyflow_trader
TLT ShortTLT is approaching a technical double top area as the Feb. 1st FOMC meeting looms. Fed futures are currently pricing in a 475-500 bps terminal rate, however some fed speakers over the days have indicated a desire to exceed 500 bps this year. Market thus far hasn't bought that narrative and expects the Fed will be forced to pivot later this year due to recessionary headwinds. This pivot hopium has resulted in a rally in TLT. However, if the Fed raises rates to 50bps in February with 2 more rate hikes to go after that, Fed futures should spike above 5%. This will bring TLT crashing down to the 90-100 level. Even if the Fed only raises 25bps with 2 more rate hikes to go, a hawkish stance consistent with their recent comments about continuing rate increases should eat away at the Fed pivot hopium rally and still result in a drop of TLT to the 100 level. EIther way I don't see TLT continuing past 110 in the near term and this opens up a good short oppotunity.
CBOT:ZQU2023Short
by berzerker2020
S&P500 may be on the verge of a mega rally based on the US02YThe chart represents the US02Y on the 1W time-frame against the S&P500 index (green trend-line). The phase that the US02Y has entered is similar to that in entered in December 1994. As you see shortly after a Golden Cross, it made a Lower High on the RSI, flashing a Bearish Divergence, while the MACD Double Topped. This is exactly the same sequence of events in the exact same order since the June 2022 Golden Cross. The US02Y fall of December 1994 practically started S&P's mega rally of mid-late 90s that led to the 2000 Dotcom Bubble. If history is repeated, instead of a continuation of the Bear Market that most expect, S&P500 my be on the verge of a new multi-year Bull Cycle. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US02Y
by TradingShot
6
US10Y Hit a 9month support. Critical moment for the market.The US10Y hit today, in the aftermath of the 6.5% U.S. CPI, the Higher Lows (HL) Support line that has been in effect for 9 months (started on March 7th 2022). With 1D technicals bearish but not heavily (RSI = 42.655, MACD = -0.035, ADX = 36.284), the trend is undecided at the moment, at least on the short-term. Though we see a clear Channel Down since the October 21st 2022 Top, the price can give a short-term bounce back to (and above) the 1D MA50 and the top of the Channel. Eventually, with the macro-economic outlook on the bond market changing, we believe the bearish trend will prevail on the long-term, with our immediate target being the 1D MA200. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ## ## Also DONATIONS through TradingView coins help our cause of increasing the daily ideas put here for free and reach out more traders like you. ##
TVC:US10Y
by InvestingScope
2
Using DXY - Bond yield Divergence correctly.A really strong indicator for future price action of say DXY for example can be the divergence between it and 5y, 10y and 30y bond yields. Forex markets are driven mainly by interest rates and so if we take a close look at the bond yields we can see them making lower highs whereas DXY is making higher highs. As said, DXY will also follow the bond yields and so we would expect DXY to drop. This SMT Divergence concept coupled with economic events could make for a great trade idea.
TVC:DXY
by AlexD09