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Bondyields

US02Y is the key for stocks and it has started to drop!This is a 1W time-frame chart, showing the correlation between the U.S. Government Bonds 2 YR Yield and the S&P500 (blue trend-line). Some may perceive the recent 2-month rally on stocks as a coincidence but the US02Y price action shows that it is not and has a direct correlation with it. The 1W RSI on the US02Y has been falling within a Channel Down since the start of February 2022, while at the same time the actual price has been rising within a Channel Up. That is a technical Bearish Divergence. The same Bearish Divergence was last seen from late January 2018 up until the week of November 05 2018. As shown on the chart this lasted 41 weeks (287 days). The start of this Bearish Divergence happened when the stock market(S&P500) had an initial pull-back event entering into a year long period of volatility, followed buy an even stronger correction. Once the US02Y started to drop, the stock market bottomed and started rising sustainably (until of course the non-technical black Swan event of COVID). Right now, we are two weeks past the 41 week (287 days) mark and the US02Y has been dropping for 4 weeks. As mentioned, the stock market has been (aggressively) rising since the October 10 2022 1W candle. The fractals are identical and this could be a repeat of the 2019 rally. Whether we see it extending or not, the US20Y certainly holds the key. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US02YShort
by TradingShot
4
US10Y Still bearish at least on the short-termThe U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) has gone a long way since our top prediction a month ago: As you see, the Lower Highs 1D RSI Bearish Divergence, accurately projected the top and the price broke much lower than the 1D MA50. On a short-term horizon, as long as it fails to close above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), we will be targeting the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). Only a break above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) can restore the bullish trend, towards the 4.330 High as it happened on June 01 2022. On the other hand a closing below the 1D MA200 (yellow trend-line) would confirm the long-term trend switch from bullish to bearish. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
1
US10Y Is more selling pressure ahead?The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) confirmed our huge Bearish Divergence spotted on our October 25 analysis and started the first pull-back since July: The price is now below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since August 19 and today is testing it as a Resistance. A double candle close above the 1D MA50, restores the bullish trend towards the October 21 High. Failure to establish two 1D candle closings above it, should most likely extend the selling pressure towards the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which was where the pull-backs of March 07 and November 09 2021 found Support. A closing below it targets the final long-term Support of 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). As you see on the chart, that still wouldn't change the long-term bullish trend on the US10Y as it would hit the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up (green). On the other hand a closing below the 1D MA200, would constitute a long-term trend change to bearish and target first the 1W MA100 (red trend-line). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10Y
by TradingShot
There is no bottom in the stock without a bottom in the bond My Dashboard on Tradingview www.tradingview.com where I am monitoring the entire bond market in the world with my magma indicator, country by country. When investing for the long term I first look the bond market before leaping in the stocks. There are few simple and important rules to follow in this market. 1. Higher Bond yields = Lower Bond Prices = Bottom in the bond market is more bottom 2. Short-mid term bond yields is closing to long-term yields (example 2-Years yield = 10-Years yield) = This means flattening = not good for long-term investment, stay alerting for your paper profits. 3. Short-mid term bond yields is greater than long-term yields (example 2-Years yield is greater than 10-Years yield) = This means inversion = not good, imminent fear of recession (remember: stock market does not perform well during recessions) 4. Short-mid-term bond yields is less than long-term yields (example 2-Years yield is less than 10-Years yield and going lower) = That's fine, economics sounds good for long-term investments What I see now: United States, Canada, Brazil are countries with the most prolongated inversion areas (highlighted with red circles in the figure above). 5. More prolongated inversion = not good, even more. Flattening areas (yellow circles) have to be carefully monitored. Few examples currently are showing good news (green circles) : Japan long-term and mid-term yield curves are fine and in the good direction. Same as in Australia.
FX:JPN225Education
by giancarlopagliaroli
1
GOLD and Bond Yields. Are they starting to close the gap?Many may wonder what is the main driving force behind Gold's recent rally and a first answer would be the strong fall on the Dollar Index, since Gold is valued in USD. This is true but the basic driver leading Gold higher are the Bond Yields, with Bonds being an asset that is in direct competition with Gold, in the same safe haven category that at times is considered more attractive due to offering yields. Bond yields shown in blue on this weekly chart have been rising non-stop since August 2020, which was Gold's technical market peak (excluding the most recent March 2020 which was fundamentally fueled by the Ukraine/ Russi war). Gold's November rise has been the strongest since that time as it is further assisted by the big drop on the US Dollar Index. This isn't yet a confirmed bearish reversal for the bond yields (US10Y) but is close to do so. As you see historically, especially since 2012 (after Gold's previous cyclical top), we had periods that the gap between Gold and yields widened but was always closed. These two negatively correlated assets have diverged by a wide margin since August and it is highly likely that the recent Gold rally/ Yield pullback is the start of their convergence again. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ## ## Also DONATIONS through TradingView coins help our cause of increasing the daily ideas put here for free and reach out more traders like you. ##
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by InvestingScope
Key to this Market: Bond Yields & USDSo we gapped down yesterday if you didn't notice. I guess the market didn't like what Powell had to say. But overall, yesterday had a even amount of buyers and sellers. What we're waiting for is the Octobers payroll number that's due to come out an hour before market open. Now, expected is 205k. If this number comes in higher than 205k, the market really isn't going to like that and we'll head lower. If it comes in lower, then.... that could give the market a reason to rally higher. But does it make sense to go higher today after yesterday and Wednesday's action? I think the markets are most likely heading lower. The key to this market is Bond yields and the US Dollar. If they go up, market is going to sell off. They come down, market rallies. It's what's been driving this market. I'm more concerned about the Nasdaq. Yesterday, big cap tech was just getting a beating. And if the selling continues with these big dogs, we will go lower. The markets are going to want to test those lows again and fast. This is where I'd want to see 40,50,60 on the VIX if the selling accelerates. Futures are currently trading at 3758 at the time of writing. So as of now, it looks like we're gaping up. However, the payroll numbers come out an hour before and if the markets don't like the number, we could turn around in futures right before open and head lower. We'll see what happens. Plan for the Day: There's a small chance of a rally that could happen today. If we do, I'll just sit on my hands and watch the market. I'm still holding some shorts with plenty of time. I just need to know if I should add to my shorts. If we gap lower, then I'll add to my short positions and follow my levels down. Keep in mind that markets usually don't bottom on Fridays. Be patient, stay disciplined and trade the market in front of you. Happy Trading!
SP:SPXShort
by MMOTA_
US10Y About to drop strongly after the 0.75% hike?The US10Y recently broke below the August Higher Lows trendline and remains below the 4H MA50 since October 25. The bearish divergence that RSI's Lower Lows suggested is identical to the one in April, May. The price patterns are very similar and this was a sell signal that dropped to the 1D MA50 and the Support of the previous Higher Low. We have drawn these levels on the current pattern and that Support is at 3.567 while the 1D MA50 at 3.667. With the 1D RSI still on Lower Highs and Lower Lows and the 1W STOCH RSI on a Sell Cross, we expect the US10Y to hit at least the 1D MA50. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ## ## Also DONATIONS through TradingView coins help our cause of increasing the daily ideas put here for free and reach out more traders like you. ##
TVC:US10YShort
by InvestingScope
2
US10Y Huge Bearish Divergence on RSI calls a drop!The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield formed Lower Highs on its 1D RSI while the price action has been trading on Higher Highs. This is a major Bearish Divergence that technically calls for a price reversal to the downside. What's even more interesting is that every time the same RSI Bearish Divergence has been formed in the past 12 months, the US10Y always pulled-back and hit its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This is currently at 3.563 (and rising). A reversal on the bond yields can have a major impact on the financial markets, especially ahead of next week's Fed Rate Decision, as it is negatively correlated with stocks and Gold. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
7
US10Y Pull-back aiming for the 1D MA50 at least.This is the U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) on a 2 year horizon. As you see its aggressive rise can fit only on a Fibonacci Channel. The recent pull-back happened after the price hit the 2.5 Fibonacci extension and the 1D RSI a largely overbought level and the price is already on the 2.0 Fib. As you see, the strongest buys throughout this period have been then the RSI hit the designated Support Zone. Also the strongest pull-backs dropped the price a whole 1.0 Fib level lower. From the previous 2.5 High, the low extension is at 1.5 and that gives us still some room to sell and target at least the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Technically it would be best to buy once the 1D RSI enters the Support Zone again, even if that means missing on the lowest possible level. From were we stand today that could be as low as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Regardless of the exact bottom, as long as the 1D MA300 (red trend-line) holds, which has been supporting since January 06 2021, the bullish target is the 2.5 Fib and the 3.0 in extension. If the price breaks below the 1D MA300 though, we will consider this a long-term trend change to bearish and should switch to a sell-the-rebounds strategy. That would affect all asset classes from stocks to Gold etc, but when that happens we will have plenty of time to analyze it. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
3
Correlation of Bond Yield and US500Simple comparison between the two, we can see this correlation happened twice in recent times. With bond yield attempting making lower highs and lows, we can see US500 index are starting to rise up from the ashes. Targeting 4000 for US500, US10Y at 3% in a month or two, before some BS news gonna pop and kill the rally for the equities. Recession is inevitable after years of money printing and lending to prop the economies. Dollar index are nearing multiple decades high. Tough times are coming. Those who prevail shall be the next wealthy people; provided they are prepare for the next opportunity in the market.
TVC:US10YShort
by RemisierSyazwan
$JPY: BOJ - Let's challenge you!BOJ - Let's challenge you! Intervening in there currency was a perfect technical set-up as well but as I started in my previous posts, we are going to re-rest the highs as we are, and we could perhaps go further if we break above that spike high of 146 area. However, we could get a fake break to either direction that's where you should be careful. Technically we have a great technical set-up once again! Formation: Triangle Bears: A break below 143 half handle we could head down to 142 half areas. Bull: A break above 146 areas we could ahead above to 146 three-quarter areas. Fundamentally: BOJ just like BOE followed and ECB are doing in having to intervene due to higher DXY - print money despite high inflation, in order to support their sovereign bond markets. BOJ intervening is being tested highly! Key tip: Be careful of fake break outs and follow your own trade plan Have a great week ahead, Trade Journal
by Trade_Journal
3
Out of The Frying Pan, Into The FireIn terms of the global macroeconomic picture, the past two weeks have been nothing short of a firestorm. Last week, the UK government announced plans for unfunded tax cuts and additional government borrowing in the ‘mini budget’. This caused a drastic reduction in market confidence. Consequently the Pound crashed to under $1.04, historically low levels against the U.S. dollar. The volatility currently playing out in financial markets is unprecedented and akin to what we are accustomed to in the world of cryptocurrency. In order to try and stop the sell-off of the pound, yesterday the Bank of England reversed course and announced that it will engage in market operations. This will involve purchasing long-dated UK government bonds (known as gilts) in an attempt to halt the fire sale which was jeopardising major financial players such as Pension Funds. With these market operations, it is now likely that UK inflation levels will rip even higher than the eye-watering levels they are already currently at. The question now becomes, what will be the next central bank to blink and how will this continuous market chaos impact Crypto and other markets? Over the past few days, crypto and wider markets have been holding up relatively well given the state of the wider economic picture. However, with a recession looming the possibility of another leg down looks increasingly likely. In recent weeks we have seen a direct correlation between inflation levels and the price of certain cryptocurrencies. When U.S. inflation data came in on the 13th of September at 8.3%, 0.2% higher than expected, the price of Bitcoin nuked 5% in a matter of minutes. Some market forecasters assume that the Federal Reserve will eventually have to pivot and loosen up its policy, inviting in higher inflation but preserving the global financial system. However, little in the Fed’s communication so far implies that this is either likely or going to happen soon. Ultimately, either decision will have stark consequences for all financial markets, including cryptocurrency. As it stands, a market reprieve and return to an ‘up-only’ bull market seems unlikely in the foreseeable future.
U
by Coinrule
NIkkei 225 10 year ProfileBOJ intervened for the first time since 1998, to prop up it's the YEN, with some speculation they likely sold a lot of their massive reserves of long end (10-30 year) US T Bills to buy back the Yen. This hypothesis appears supported by the lack of short end yield movement at 4-5a, EST at time of BOJ intervention announcement late last week. Of note in this chart are: - Almost a decade long volume profile aligned with vPOC at 382 retrace. - Structure of current price action seemingly mirroring the covid structure as represented by the fractal in light blue above.
OANDA:JP225USD
by Linneaus
1
#US10Y #Bonds Can Fall From This FCP ZoneTraders & Investors, US 10 Year Bonds have been on the rise. After a minor correction they rose higher but now they could be approaching an FCP zone which can act as a resistance. We also have Relative Strength Index divergence setting up on weekly time frame. Out this on your watch list as this can impact stock market, indices and other asset classes due to money flow from this asset class. Rules: 1. Never trade too much 2. Never trade without a confirmation 3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too ✅ If you found this idea useful, hit the like button, subscribe and share it in other trading forums. ✅ Follow me for future ideas, trade set ups and the updates of this analysis ✅ Don't hesitate to share your ideas, comments, opinions and questions. Take care and trade well -Vik ____________________________________________________ 📌 DISCLAIMER The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only. Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions. ____________________________________________________
TVC:US10Y
by vikinsa
US03MY increases more, Markets surprised at CPI data !?😲CPI the Core inflation, which is the focus of most traders, rose 0.6 percent in August, a larger increase than in July. Although the US inflation decreased in August; But it was still higher than economists had expected, signaling that the US Federal Reserve will remain aggressive in raising interest rates. Also Eight days before the new Federal Reserve interest rate meeting, the 3-month bond yield has increased by 0.75% in the transactions so far. After announcing the inflation data, the yields of government bonds with different maturities increased by +6%. The point being that the 3month is highly correlated to the federal funds rate, It seems ,the Federal Funds Rate continues to rise , likely at a more modest pace and maybe with less regularity. ------------------------------- Bond Yields: The yield on a government bond is the interest rate that the government borrows at. Government bonds, because they are safe, therefore tend to have a lower yield because investors are not demanding a high rate of interest for lending to the government. Bond yield is the return an investor realizes on an investment in a bond. A bond can be purchased for more than its face value, at a premium, or less than its face value, at a discount . The current yield is the bond's coupon rate divided by its market price. Price and yield are inversely related and as the price of a bond goes up, its yield goes down. ------------------------------- This Economic informations update is provided for informational purposes only . ✌️ Good luck with your trading and investing and remember: Trade smart…OR JUST DON’T TRADE! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👉This analysis is my personal opinion ,not a financial advice ,so do your own research. 💚 if you're fan of my analyses please follow me , drop a comment 🗯 and Boost me 🚀🚀
FRED:FEDFUNDS
by PRO_SMART_Trader
13
German Bund yields: secular reversalGerman Bund yields ( DE10Y ) are in the midst of a secular trend reversal after the breakout of both the 200-month moving average and a 40-year descending trend line. Yields on the 10-year Bund have never gone over the 200-mma mark before. The next barrier is the psychological threshold of 2%, which coincides with the September 2013 highs and 23.6% of the Fibonacci retracement level (all-time highs of 1981 to all-time lows of 2020). Breaking above 2% could then see the 3.7-3.8% yield as target (2009 highs and 38.2% Fibonacci). The ECB's forthcoming interest-rate hikes and Germany's rising inflation trend, which reached 7.9% in August, the highest level since German reunification, can exert substantial upward pressure on Bund yields in the coming months. In particular, the market may begin factoring in a greater volume of Bund emissions from the German state as a means of financing an expanding deficit caused by energy subsidies. The latest €65bn package is worth more than 3% of the German's GDP. With the ECB expected to reduce (or completely stop) government bond purchases, the German government would need to find buyers who demand higher yields due to rising interest rates and inflation. The current real rate of Bunds (the difference between the nominal and inflationary rates) is -6%, which is close to the lowest level ever. Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity analyst at Capital.com
TVC:DE10Y
by Capitalcom
US10Y Inflation has peaked according to the bond yieldsThis is a critical update on the U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) as it has formed a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern. This is a technically bearish formation that we typically see on market tops with a reversal following. It gets even stronger considering the fact that the Head of the formation hit (and got rejected on) the Higher Highs (top) trend-line of the Megaphone pattern that the market has been trading is since 2013. There is however a possibility of not dropping to a correction before one last test of the Higher Highs as it happened both on mid 2018 and the September 2013 H&S patterns. As a result, we should approach this in terms of Resistance and Support break-outs. Above the Resistance, expect one last Higher Highs test, below the Support expect a plunge towards the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). But why is this US10Y top formation pattern so important and what does it have to do with the Inflation Rate (red trend-line)? Well as you see within this 9 period price action, the two symbols are very correlated. In fact, every time the US10Y hit the top of its Megaphone pattern, Inflation peaked and started to follow the US10Y lower on its correction. As a result we can say that this is the first indication we've had in a long time that the raging inflation that started in May 2020, may finally be getting under control. If so, this could be the ideal time to get back into stock buying as early as possible. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10Y
by TradingShot
3