Get started

Bondyields

USTECH100 Nasdaq : The bigger picture disaster of tech :( 22.4 Simplicity is king. 1) Rising wedge 2019 - 2022 - Jan 2022 breakout down. 2) Nasdaq is falling from a crazy over-priced high, big potential downside. 3) Descending trend-line of lower highs since breakout confirm down-trend. 4) Current trading range of the down-trend is 14,600 - 12,800 5) Break below 12,800 - 11,900 to 10,700 will very likely follow. 6) A break above 14,600 with a weekly close will be the end of the down-trend technically. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If you liked my idea, would be great if you could like and follow :D My target is to benefit as many traders as I can with practical knowledge which would give you confidence. Let me know if you have any questions or if there's anything more I can do to help! Thank you <3 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WHSELFINVEST:USTECH100CFDShort
by Exactus
2
US10Y broke a historic trend-line from 1981. What's next?The US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield, broke last month above a historic Lower Highs trend-line that has been holding since September 1981. This chart is on the 1M (monthly) time-frame. By doing so, it also broke above the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in history as well. Even though it hasn't broken above the previous Lower High of November 2018, which is currently the Resistance, we have to consider the implications of this historic break-out. The 1M RSI has also hit a multi-year long Higher Highs trend-line and got rejected, making it a Resistance. Unless the November 2018 High breaks, we may see the 1M MA200, even the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) being tested as Supports. A break above the November 2018 High though, will basically confirm a historic change on yields, especially as the Fed has already announced plans to continue raising the interest rates aggressively in an attempt to battle the raging inflation. The green trend-line on the chart represents the Federal Funds Rate and as you see its Highs have historically matched roughly the Highs of the US10Y. Since the Rate is now still relatively low and as per the Fed's remarks, we are still early in the rate hike cycle, we can see the US10Y break much higher in an aggressive manner in the following months. So what do you think? Does this break mark a historic change on bond yields? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10Y
by TradingShot
5
AUD/USD & AUD/JPY Analysis / Iron Ore & InflationThe Australian Dollar has weakened in recent weeks due to Iron Ore prices declining as China's zero covid policy has caused investors to fear a slowdown in the world's second-biggest economy. Australia exports 80% of Iron ore to China, so any slowdown in China will hit demand for Australia's commodity exports and put downward pressure on the currency. We also have Australian inflation data out tomorrow, which could surprise to the upside and beat economists' forecast, causing a rally higher in the Australian Dollar on rate hike expectations. In this video I break down what could play out and how to make money from the potential outcomes.
COMEX:TIO1!Long
by KayansMarkets
XAUUSD Gold : Launch to space? Or 1890 retest? 22.4 Jerome Powell, chairman of the FED yesterday basically confirmed a May rate hike. But ask yourself seriously - Is inflation going to go away due to this? Will this save a bleeding economy? Gold practically called the bluff on FED's comments AND the rising bond yields. As you can see, post FED meeting we have the Gold keep the support trend-line since the start of the year. Since breaking above the consolidation breakout , circled on the chart, Gold spiked up by about $70 , it is normal for a technical correction down to take place at such scenario, as we see with the price action now. If the week closes above 1935-37 , which is the support trend-line since Jan 2022, the bull trend is kept and a new high will be in sight. **A weekly close today below 1937-35 will confirm potential downside 1890 - Although this scenario is less likely, it is still technically possible. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If you found my idea helpful, please like and follow :D I'll be posting daily Gold, WTI, BTC, Nasdaq, EURUSD and more with a special focus on WTI and Gold. Thank you for the time to read and I'm always happy to hear suggestions about what you guys want to see more of and any questions of course :D -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Exactus
1
CAD/JPY Buy Set Up Update Since my last video, CAD/JPY, has pushed above ¥100.00 on the exchange rate. We now have the Bank of Canada talking about the possibility of 0.75% rate hikes, as inflation hit 6.70% this week, far above economists forecast for a rise to 6.10%. The Bank of Japan maintains its stance to use yield curve control to keep interest rates low, sighting low inflation expectations over their forecast horizon. The interest rate differentials between Canada and Japan continue to widen, supporting further strength in the Canadian Dollar. With Oil prices remaining elevated, the commodity-linked currency could continue to strengthen against the Japanese Yen.
Long
by KayansMarkets
3
Bond yields in the era of high inflationAs you can see on the main chart, 10y bond yields have broken above their downwards channel and are now back at their 2013-2018 highs. Based on technical analysis we don't have a confirmation that the trend has fully reversed until we get a close above 3.2%, but we are pretty close to breaking above that level too. Now we aren't only seeing the 10y yields rise, as all kinds of maturities are rising at the same time and are rising pretty fast. The trend is showing no signs of exhaustion and this could get pretty ugly for the world economy, as the Fed has barely raised rates so far and they are threatening to raise rates by 0.5% at every meeting in 2022. Many analysts claim that the bond market is broken and that yields will rise even further, but are they correct? Well the truth is that the way bond market topped (yields bottomed) in March 2020 is definitely an indication that a bull market is over. Currently the market has broken below most major support lines and seems to be accelerating rather than decelerating, while the correction from the peak is indicating that the bull market is over, as during bull markets corrections tend to stay within a certain range, and this correction is way larger than any previous corrections. At the same time the 2y year yields are above 2.5%, a level that they 'shouldn't' have broken if the bond bull was intact. The reason behind this is that usually 2y bond yields would never go above the peak of the Fed Funds Rate and during the last hiking cycle the FFR had peak at 2.5%. Currently the 2y yields look like the formed the perfect round bottom (bullish technical pattern) and have broken above their downwards channel and could also be headed higher in the medium to long term (an indication that the bond bull could be over). However not everything is really bearish for bonds at the moment and there is some hope for the bull market, even if that means we only get a strong bounce before going lower. As the 10y and 30y yields haven't broken above their resistance levels yet, it might be a good time to start buying bonds. Why? Well as yields are at resistance, bonds are close to support. The actual bonds are so oversold, that the current move might be getting totally irrational. Yes inflation is going up, yes inflation could go higher and inflation expectations keep rising, but the rate of inflation could come down. Not only that, but the Fed is so trapped that everyone knows they can't really raise rates much more or sell bonds without breaking the market. Financial conditions have already tightened so much, that investors will eventually run to the safety of bonds which finally have a pretty attractive yield. Of course my reasoning doesn't just rely on some random fundamental analysis, but also some technical factors. The first one has to do with how this break of the trendline could be a trap and this move is headed straight into a very important area in which there is strong support. On TLT there is a major gap at an area that was support, it was broken and then the market quickly closed back above it. That's the perfect place to go long. The second one has to do with the fact that the yield curve had inverted and has now un-inverted itself. Usually inversions happen close to the bottom of the bond market (peak in yields) and therefore this could be another useful signal that a bottom isn't far away. Again this doesn't mean that someone has to go long right now or go long big, just that maybe its time to cut down shorts and put on some small longs. Personally I like to move between being a bond bull or bear based on the data and not have dogmatic views about what will happen in the future. Finally I'd like to talk a bit about junk bonds, which are at the same level they were when the Fed had raised rates at 2.5% and kept saying that they would keep hiking. With so much debt in the world, the Fed threatening to keep hiking rates and the global economy being in shambles due to Covid-19, aging demographics, supply chain issues, lockdowns in China, the Russia-Ukraine war and commodity shortages, it is hard for someone to really see how owning junk bonds is a good long term bet here. Shorting junk bonds is probably the best bet someone could take at this stage, if he/she believes that there is going to be a major collapse either in the stock market or the bond market. What I find very interesting is how resilient American companies have proven to be, and how after so many major crashes since 2008, now junk bonds are rallying against treasuries. By looking at the HYG/TLT ratio, we can see how they have outperformed since the March 2020 crash, potentially due to how much the US government has support those companies and how much more the private sector has benefited from low rates and money printing compared to the public sector. By adding to the mix how strong stocks have been over the last 2 years despite all the negative events, we can make sense of why junk bonds are outperforming us treasuries. Maybe this is also a major sign that buying stocks is a much better idea in the long term than buying bonds, and that the stock bull market is still intact, but that's a topic which I will discuss in another idea. In conclusion, the bond bull could be over. There are several signs indicating extreme weakness in bonds as inflation expectations keep rising and the Fed is unwilling to support the bond market. Yet we are at levels that not buying bonds seems like the wrong decision, even if buying them would only for a short time period only.
TVC:US10Y
by BitcoinMacro
CAD/JPY Buy Set Up - Interest Rate Differentials The Canadian Dollar continues to strengthen against the Japanese Yen as the Bank of Canada continues to aggressively raise Interest rates to fight off high inflation. Japan's domestic inflation is in stark contrast as Japan continues to struggle to hit the Bank of Japan's 2.00% target. I show the historical difference in interest rates on 10Year Government bonds having a big impact on the CAD/JPY exchange rate. Oil accounts for nearly 20% of Canada's exports and commodities make up a large proportion of export income. With commodities prices rallying around the world, the Canadian dollar continues to strengthen as more money comes flooding into the country, increasing the demand for the currency in exchange rates. #Forex #Currencies #Investing #CanadianDollar #CAD/JPY #Interestrates #InterestRateDifferentials
Long
by KayansMarkets
U.S Dollar Analysis - USD/JPY & EUR/USD In this video, I breakdown why the U.S Dollar is bullish against the Japanese Yen and maintaining its strength against the Euro, as the central bank, ' The Federal Reserve", is raising interest rates aggressively in 2022 to deal with high domestic inflation. This is in contrast to the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan, which have pledged to keep interest rates low, due to low inflation expectations over the coming years. I will show you how Bond yields drive currency markets when rising yields in the U.S pay a premium over Europe and Japan when there is a divergence in monetary policy. Enjoy!
Long
by KayansMarkets
1
Will an inversion in US bond yields trigger a recession?Worries of a looming recession intensified late Thursday last week after the yield on the two-year US Treasury bonds hit 2.337% as the yield on 10-year bonds fell to 2.331%, marking an inversion that usually preceded previous periods recessions. It was the first negative spread since 2019. However, Treasury yields flipped again on April 1 and again on April 4, when two-year yield rose to 2.453% against 10-yield that hiked to 2.432%. An inverted bond yield shows signs that financial conditions are tight and could also signal a looming downturn. Under normal circumstances, the yield curve is not inverted since debt with longer maturities typically carry higher interest rates than nearer-term ones. Considering that every recession since 1955 was preceded by an inversion in the yield curve for US bonds, its recent and more frequent occurrence surely does not alleviate concerns in the market, especially when it remains on high alert for the economic implications from Russia's military attacks against Ukraine and the growing inflation in the US. Bond yields as recession markers According to a 2018 report by researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, each recession since 1955 followed the inversion of the US yield curve between 6 and 24 months. The only time the 10-year to two-year Treasury spread provided a false positive to a recession was in the mid-1960s. That instance did not deter economic officials from looking into bond yields when checking for signs of an approaching recession. On Aug. 28, 2019, the yield on two-year bonds briefly surpassed the yield for its 10-year counterpart. This negative turn of the spread predated the two-month recession that started February 2020, which also happened amid the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic. Before that, Treasury yields flipped for most of 2006. Nearing the end of the following year, the Great Recession happened and lasted until June 2009, marking the longest recession since World War II. Not the only indicator While bond yield inversion has been a reliable indicator of recessions in the past, it is not the only factor that could tell another period of significant, widespread, and extended economic decline is approaching. More importantly, even if they do predate a recession, an inverted bond yield is not the reason why it happened. The performance of the bond market is only one of many factors that affect the direction of the economy. The recent movement of the yields of both short- and long-term US Treasury bonds could simply be indicators of how the market expects regulators to respond to global events and economic trends. Increasing yields of short-term US government debt reflect expectations of a series of rate hikes by the Fed. Meanwhile, the slower pace of growth in the yields of longer-dated government bonds happen amid concerns that policy tightening may be hurting the economy. Nevertheless, expect market watchers to look closely into bond yields over the next few months. Economic officials will likely do the same because if past recessions taught us anything, it is best to treat these indicators with caution and still have plans in place to ensure that even if a recession does materialize, its impacts to the economy will be lessened as much as possible.
TVC:US10Y
by BlackBull_Markets
Bond Market Volatility & EconomyBond yields serve as a leading indicator of economic performance, with major headwinds in the form of inflation and labor shortages, short-term yields have begun to invert demanding higher premiums than longer-term bonds. As the bond market moves in anticipation, volatility increases and serves as a signal to the broader economy. $MOVE provides a benchmark with bond market volatility, with an uptrend and spikes nearing Feb/Mar 2020. The chart presents measurements going back to lat 2002, reflecting a dramatic uptick in volatility as the housing market collapsed in 2008. The uptrend reflected now is serving as another warning to the markets that turbulent times lay ahead.
TVC:MOVEShort
by UnknownUnicorn20630062
1
Watch the US 10Y Yield chart as it approaches MAJOR resistanceI am taking a closer look at a long-term chart of the US 10Y yield today, I consider this to be a very important chart. Why? Firstly, Government debt continued to sell-off yesterday, with bond bears spurred on by more hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Powell, and secondly, I prefer to look at yield charts as I consider that the data is clearer and not disrupted or distorted by the ‘rollovers’ of the bond futures market. Ok I have done something a little strange on this chart, I can clearly see the down trend in evidence going back nearly 40-years and yet when I try to draw a trendline, I can only get a resistance line (a line that joins only 2 points and not 3). Why is this important? Because I want to know exactly at what point this nearly 40-year bull market capitulates - so what have I done? I have instead connected the lows from 1993 (there are at least 4 major lows) and drawn a parallel off this support line. Our long-term resistance line is at 2.52 BUT our parallel line is higher at 2.63 AND we have the 200-month ma in close proximity at 2.68. Conclusion – the MAJOR resistance lies at 2.63/68 and these are the KEY levels to watch. I have been watching these levels for at least the past 2-years, because not only will this will be the final death knell of the bond market, but because we also suspect at this level the stock market could also capitulate. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
TVC:US10Y
by The_STA
$US10Y Breaking Out OF 40 Year TrendHistorically, in the absence of QE (Quantitative Easing), the US10Y (US 10 Year Treasury Bon) exceeds inflation. This means that bond yields must rise to exceed inflation for non-Federal Reserve buyers to enter the market place. Non-Government buyers will not buy a bond below inflation as their real returns would be negative. A SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS/CONSIDERATIONS: How The Fed May Reduce The Balance Sheet: - If they flood the market, we could see a squeeze on the bond market as the FED represented 2/3 of the bond market prior to ending their aggressive purchasing of bonds last week. How The New "Standing Repo Facility (S.R.F)" Will Effect The Bond Market: - Unclear, as it is untested in this Quantitative Tightening (QT) climate. - The premise is that the S.R.F is a tool that FED now has to avoid what happened in 2019. The goal is to help prevent a spike in bond yields. Explanation from Federal reserve website: www.federalreserve.gov "When the Federal Reserve conducts an overnight repo, it buys a security from an eligible counterparty and simultaneously agrees to sell the security back the next day. The difference between the purchase price and the sale price of the securities implies a rate of interest earned by the Federal Reserve on the transaction. The FOMC sets the S.R.F minimum bid rate, which is the minimum interest rate the Federal Reserve is willing to receive in an S.R.F operation; if the amount of bids exceeds the operation limit, the actual interest rate that a counterparty pays is determined through an auction process. The securities accepted in S.R.F operations include Treasury securities, agency debt securities, and agency mortgage backed securities."
TVC:US10YLong
by VakninAnalytics
3
US10Y Bearish this month, bullish the next.The US10Y is following exactly the pattern of October - November 2021. After a strong Channel Up, it broke to the downside, below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and marginally under the Support of the Channel Up first Low. Based on the November pattern, the price should decline for the rest of the month, making a Lower Low below the Support and quite likely near or on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The opportunity to turn bullish again will be in early - mid April. Notice how even the 1D CCI sequences of the two fractals are virtually identical. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
1