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Bondyields

US10Y approaching a structured topThe US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield has been trading within a Channel Up since the early August low. The price is currently way above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and after a strong rally it is now within a structured Channel Up. The pattern resembles the October structured Channel Up, which led to a top and pull-back back below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Assuming this stands again, we should be expecting a top by the end of next week. In any case, if the 1.695 Support breaks earlier, the target would be the 1D MA200. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10Y
by TradingShot
2
What 3 Events Will Traders Be Watching This Week? 17 Jan – 21 JaWhat 3 Events Will Traders Be Watching This Week? 17 Jan – 21 Jan, 2022 Monday, January 17: YoY China Retail Sales Dec Year over year Retail Sales in China is predicted to slow in December 2021’s reading from 3.9% to 3.7%. The Offshore Yuan has eyed a sub-6.34000 value against the USD since December 2021 but hasn’t held the nerve to stay this low for anything more than a brief intraday flirtation. The USDCNH is currently on the precipice of this level, trading at 6.35283 and could finally close sub-6.34000 in a daily time frame if an unexpectedly strong December Retail Sales report helps dispel rumblings of a weakening Chinese economy. Tuesday, January 18: BoJ’s Press Conference The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will speak on Tuesday Evening. No significant changes to the Bank’s ultra-loose monetary policy are expected, but traders will watch for signals concerning future rate hike decisions. The market may have already begun anticipating such, with Japanese Yields hitting a six-year high last week, and with it, the Japanese Yen experienced its best weekly gain in six months. Wednesday, January 19 to Friday, January 21: Wednesday: YoY UK Inflation Rate Dec Thursday: Canadian YoY Inflation Rate DEC Friday: Japanese YoY Inflation Rate DEC The market will be reacting to three important inflation data reports In quick succession for the last three days of the week. A 0.1 percentage point increase is expected for all three reports. Perhaps the most important to watch will be Friday’s report from Japan as it can be considered in tandem with the BoJ Monetary Policy Minutes report, which is released twenty minutes after the inflation report.
by BlackBull_Markets
10Y YIELD CRATERING SOON? EXTREME FEAR EXPECTED IN 1Q OF 2022Hello traders & investors! As we look into the beginning of 2022 and use 10Y as our guide - expect enormous amount of fear coming to the markets/news channels/politician speeches.. I am expecting 40-50% correction on this 10 Year treasury. Cash will flow into bonds and DXY should strengthen at the same time too :) That being said, I expect this to unfold in first half of 2022. Multi-year and decade long views does not change - rates will climb much faster & higher. We have nice place to enter the markets in the times of extreme fear. Levels to watch: 1.52% & 0.90% Take care! This is not a financial advice.
TVC:US10YShort
by Patrikas10
2
Using Bond Yield Spread (30y-20y) to Predict FOMCMy approach to learning trading is to consume and apply what I learned in practical experiences. For that I like to study many different indicators and signals. One in particular I was following last week was the Bond Yield Spread, 30Y - 20Y, as an indicator of Fed Tightening and Liquidity Shocks. A Fintwit Market Expert explains it like this: ----- Spreads are explained by interest rates, the slope of yield curve, stock market volatility and the economic environment. Spreads widen when bond traders become less willing to replenish the order book. A significant widening of the already wide spread between the 20Yr and 30Y recently appeared on Nov 24 and, yesterday, proved prescient. This was a reflection of the bond markets' doubt in the Fed’s mantra that inflation would prove transitory. Inversion in and widening of the 20-yr 30-yr spread has been a leading indicator that precedes the Fed’s tightening. ----- This trend of negative spread continued to widen until it hit -0.11 on Dec 2. It's why I posted such a Bearish outlook on Dec 3. Then I noticed before close on Dec 3 the news was far to Bearish and it felt like a trap, so I switched Long EOD Friday before close and started posting Bullish Charts. I added an indicator to this chart at the bottom and you can see the trend continues positive and recently pulled up from the the very critical -0.06 to -0.0.7 as pointed out at the end of Nov. It seems like there is a good support below 4700, so even if we slip below that pivot, there shouldn't be any significant pullbacks this week. Because of this, I will be leaning Long over 4700 and Short Below. Posts are observations only. Not Financial Advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SPYvsGME
2
US10Y Close to a major bearish move towards July's lowsI haven't updated my 10Y Bond Yield outlook in almost a month, ever since calling the top and the potential of a bearish reversal: The top successfully took place and the rejection gave way to the reversal on which the price has been trading until now. The similarities with the March - May formation remain and have even become stronger. As you see there is a Triangle pattern on both which in June it broke aggressively to the down side turning the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) into its Resistance until late August. Right now the 1D MA50 is supporting. If the price breaks below it and gets rejected there (turning it into a Resistance) on the first test, then I expect the US10Y to targe the 1.125 Support. Until then, we are trading sideways within the Triangle. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
2
TYX 30 Year Bond YieldWith Fed Powell having his big speech last week, I wanted to take a look at the TYX which is the 30 year treasury bond yield. Although he noted that they won't necessarily hike interest rates in the short term, he did say that he would consider doing so Q2 and above depending on job growth and GDP growth. There was also a clear warning that the Fed would pullback on some of the bond purchasing two times in November and December going into 2022. The TYX normally responds to this in a bullish manner. With the CPI reports being the highest since 1990, consumers are taking hits with having to spend more money for the same products. In the most recent months, this hasn't really mattered to the average consumer. However, if the CPI reports continue to come in higher than forecasted, I'm sure that those same consumers would start pulling back their expenditures. Now taking a look at the chart, my focus is on the Daily TF where there seems to be a bullish flag forming and or an Eve and Eve double bottom that could be in the midst of forming if consolidation persists within the next 3 months. The Mac D indicator seems as if it needs to retrace the previous high and it has already surpassed the 38% retracement level and am looking for a bullish move out of the flag to reach the 61.80% retracement. If this happens and we cross above the 200 ema (already happening on the 15 min) we could be back in the 2's at some point in the near future. What do you think? Like, follow, agree, disagree! Not advice! Just an Idea!
TVC:TYXLong
by Redimere_91
Bond Yields to Rise again soon - heading towards 1.8%I think its fair to agree that in the long term, with interest rates expected to rise, and monetary policy tightening, that bond yields willl rise inevitably. but the question really is when. Whilst i cant judge when that will be... i can try and get some good timings (for short positions on bonds - since bond prices are inverse to yield). Yields should bottom out near 1.25% fairly soon... after which i would look to see the yields rise back to around 1.8 or possibly more.
TVC:US10YLong
by nmiah7c
US10Y Signs of a bearish reversal.The US10Y has reached (and so far got rejected on) the 1.707 Resistance (1), which last time rejected the price on May 13. With the 1D RSI on a Bearish Divergence (is on Lower Highs while the actual price is on Higher Highs), similarities can be made with the February 25 - March 30 sequence, which after an RSI Bearish Divergence got rejected on the 1.775 Resistance (2) and essentially started the correction towards the 1.125 Support. We are expecting a pull-back towards the 0.382 Fibonacci Retracement level and if broken the 0.618 level which may be even more likely as it is the top of the recent High Volatility Cluster. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
4
Gold rises to $1,800 but still keeps moving down in long-term Gold began its descending movement since Aug 2020 when it was $2074. Falling US Treasury bond yields seem to be fueling gold's rally in the second half of the week. After bond markets returned to action on Tuesday, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield lost nearly 6% and was last seen falling 0.9% on the day at 1.525% . Gold has entered into 1830-1845 key zone three times but never broke it. Will it break the descending pattern and reach to the zone again ? News Credit: www.fxstreet.com
TVC:GOLD
by Farid_alfredo
1
US10Y hit the 0.618 Fib. Pull-back to 1W MA50?The US10Y has been trading within a Channel Up until it marginally broke its Higher Highs trend-line yesterday. This happens to be exactly on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and today we we seeing a rejection. Technically the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) has been supporting for months, with the most recent bounce provided on the September 15th low. We are expecting a pull-back towards the 1W MA50 again. ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !! 🎉 👍 Shout-out to TradingShot's 💰 top TradingView Coin donor 💰 this week ==> Vergnes --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
Naughty Nas Had a Bad Day! Why?!Shares of Goldman Sachs (GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and other financial firms are advancing along with bond yields. The rate on the 10 year Treasury note is up 1.48%. If you did not know, those higher rates are pulling down shares of tech companies that benefit from lower borrowing costs. All the FAAMG stocks had experienced a red day due to this. When trading indicies always keep up with the fundamentals alongside your technicals. If you do not know what the 10yr Treasury Note is, I suggest googling it and get a better understanding of its fundamentals.
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by DeepHaldar
Fed announces Taper and what this means for stocks and crypto. The federal reserve just announced a potential taper of the asset purchase and start reducing the growth of their balance sheet going into 2022. This taper could potentially end in mid 2022 and Jerome Powell announced they would consider raising rates depending on the economic situation then. This clearly reflects that inflation is running wild in the United States and their fingers are on that button to prevent it from running wild. Both the US 10y treasury as well as the SPX are seen rising together which is another sign there is too much money chasing too little goods and services. The price action of the bond market looks to mimic that of October 2017 if the taper really starts in November 2021. Q4 2017 was the year when the federal reserve starts to unwind their balance sheet and unload the assets that they purchased into the markets. The risk on assets like stock and Bitcoin fell heavily right after....
TVC:US10YLong
by IkanBilisCapital
US10Y testing the 1D MA200. Another rejection ahead?The US10Y is about to hit the 1D MA200 again (orange trend-line) where last time failed to convincingly close a candle above it and eventually got rejected. That also happened to be on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, which is a symmetrical level as it previously was a Support (July 08) turned into Resistance. There is also a potential 1D Death Cross (when the MA50 crosses below the MA200) to keep an eye on. The last 1D Death Cross was back in January 2019 and was devastating for the yields. Equally the November 17, 2020 Golden Cross (opposite of Death Cross) initiated a very strong rally. If the price gets rejected again inside the Channel Down, I expect the next target to be near the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level in the form of a Lower Low. ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !! 🎉 👍 Shout-out to TradingShot's 💰 top TradingView Coin donor 💰 this week ==> sikret --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
4
US10Y Medium-term sellThe US10Y has confirmed the shift from bullish to long-term bearish as last week it broke below the Higher Lows Zone that has been holding since the August 07, 2020 bottom. The bounce however on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line on the left chart) is something to keep an eye on, but for the moment that is viewed as a Lower Lows rebound within a Channel Down (right chart). The last Lower Highs were made at or close to the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line on the right chart). Since the 4H RSI has just entered its Resistance Zone, it may be a good time to start selling the US10Y. The target is 1.1600, above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level (as seen on the left chart). Most recent US10Y idea: ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !! 🎉 👍 Shout-out to TradingShot's 💰 top TradingView Coin donor 💰 this week ==> Ether2020 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
5