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Boris

EURGBP SHORTI call this the Backing Boris Strategy. If Boris manages an exit on the 31st, the people will see him as the person that got things done, got the queen involved and made the bold moves. Deal or not, the closure will add certainty and business can finally adapt to the new conditions. That and EU just announced QE - One of the downsides of QE policy is that it devalues a domestic currency, which is good for business exports by making their products more competitive in an attempt to raise inflation. If that doesn't work, not good news. I'm on TEAM POUND! ( for now )
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by shadowdove
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Fed's patience snapped, Banks of Japan and EnglandThe Banks of Japan and England are announcing the results today. But, let's start by summarizing yesterday’s FOMC meeting. The Fed did not violate the established balance in the market and left the interest rate unchanged. As for the comments, then, as we expected, they turned out to be “dovish”. In particular, the phrase “to be patient”, which was the main motive of the Fed's statements lately, has disappeared. What does this mean? That the Fed is ready to cut the rate: 8 out of 17 FOMC members expect a rate cut by the end of 2019. The Bank of Japan has already announced its decision on monetary policy parameters, as we expected the parameters are left unchanged. Today we are expecting another decision from BoE. Well, the situation in the UK is tough enough, therefore the rate will be unchanged, on our point of view. We are not expecting the pound growth. So, any surge of volatility has to used to open counter positions ( in case of absence of clear fundamental contraindications ). What is that mean? If the pound jacks up, we will sell it in the area of daily hights. And if, on the contrary, it begins to sell, then we will look for opportunities to buy it. Once again, we do not expect the formation of directional movement in pound pairs following the meeting of the Bank of England. Meanwhile, in the UK, Mr. Johnson won the second round of the contest with the backing of 126 out of 313. And yesterday, Boris Johnson won a third successive ballot, with 143 votes. The remaining candidates are Michael Gove, Sajid Javid, and Jeremy Hunt. Our trading preferences for today: we will look for points for selling the US dollar primarily against the Japanese yen, as well as the euro, selling oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying gold. As for the pound, we described the plan for working with it above.
TVC:DXYShort
by Trade24Fx
Attack on tankers, game of thrones of Britain & trading ideaAccording to media reports an oil tanker turned into a fireball after a suspected torpedo attack off the coast of Iran. A second tanker was said to have been targeted by a magnetic mine in a series of explosions. Oil rushed up as we expected. However, we consider this growth an opportunity for sales at a higher price. Considering that this week oil reserves in the United States have risen to its maximum value amounted 485.47 million barrels since July 2017. In general, over the past 3 months, oil reserves in the United States have shown a weekly growth rate of 10 times. The race to be the next British prime minister stared yesterday. Conservative MPs will now take part in a series of votes to whittle the candidates down to the final two. Any candidate who fails to secure at least 17 MPs' votes will be eliminated from the contest. Further ballots will be held next week, with the two most popular MPs moving to a run-off of Tory party members. Boris Johnson topped the ballot in the first round of voting (received more than 100 votes). His closest competitors, Jeremy Hunt(Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, and Michael Gove( Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs), received 43 and 37 votes. As you can see, the most likely winner is Boris Johnson. His position is more than tough - Brexit at any price. So, the pressure on the pound is likely to increase. In this regard, we will focus on finding points for selling pounds. Friday will be quite a busy day in terms of macroeconomic statistics. First of all, we are talking about the data on retail sales and industrial production in the United States, as well as the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index. In addition, attention should be paid to similar statistics from China. If the economy shows signs of a worsening economic halt (which is very likely), the forecast from Paul Tudor Jones is at least a step closer to its implementation. In a recent interview with the investment fund founder“Tudor Investment Corporation” and one of the best investors of our time Paul Tudor Jones. Gold is his favorite pick in the next 12 to 24 months. If it hits $1,400, it will quickly move to $1,700, he said. Motivation - US rates are likely to return to zero values again, and the trade war will slow down the development of the world economy. Our trading preferences for today are as follows: we will continue to look for points for the sales of the US dollar primarily against the Japanese yen, as well as the euro, sales of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying of gold and sales of GBPUSD.
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by Trade24Fx
US Inflation, damage to the global economy & PM BorisAccording to The Economist, the trade war between the United States and China has already caused the global economy irreparable damage, disrupting the supply chain that had been creating for several decades. The point is that, there are a lot of Chinese companies have found the way of delivery of goods to the United States. For instance, across Vietnam. The scheme is very simple: the label “Made in Vietnam” is glued to Chinese goods and the goods are sold in the United States without the additional costs associated with duties. The downside of this was the destruction of the old logistics chains, and the creation of new ones, apart from the general riskiness, requires additional costs. As proof of the damage, the information has been given as an example that the current business cycle is ending. Since the crisis in 2008, the world economy has gone through a very long period of recovery, and the business cycle usually enters a recession phase every decade. This assumption is confirmed by the data on exports from the developed countries, as well as exports from developed countries to other developed countries, which has fallen to its lowest level since 2009. In general, it is worth preparing for the worst. In this regard, we recall that our recommendations are buying safe-haven assets. It is worth noting yesterday's inflation data from the United States. Consumer inflation appeared below forecasts and reached the Fed target. This is quite an alarming signal for the dollar. Note, that the markets still believe that the Fed will leave the rate unchanged next week, but in a month in July, the US Central Bank will lower the rate by 0.25% (the current probability of this event is more than 80%). Meanwhile, Boris Johnson has launched his campaign to get a post of Prime Minister. His main slogan is "Brexit at any price". This is an alarming signal for the pound, because "at any price" includes a no-deal Brexit. In this case, the consequences for the UK economy as a whole and the pound, in particular, could be unpredictable. Our trading preferences for today are as follows: we will continue to look for points for the US dollar sales against the Japanese yen, as well as the euro, sales of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying of gold and sales of GBPUSD.
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by Trade24Fx