USDollar Index (DXY) Analysis Hi
I hope you all are in a constant profit.
DXY on a weekly time frame is creating an exciting chart.
As you can see, if a weekly candle closes above 94.54, a significant accumulation phase is confirmed.
On the other hand, the BEXP Indicator indicates HVP is reducing and has a downtrend, so a big explosion in this scale is baking.
The interesting part is the positive correlation between DXY and Bitcoin on a weekly scale. And it's not weak as well.
Screenshot:
Thanks for your time.
Regards, Hashem.
Borjastarh
Bitcoin (BTC) Long-term AnalysisHi
I hope you all are in a constant profit.
Bitcoin on 1D time-frame is in a range between ($57500~$58500) and $63700.
According to the BEXP indicator in the 1D time-frame, Bitcoin is about to explode very soon on this scale.
So we can judge the breakouts with this range so:
If a Daily candle closes above $64000, $66000 would likely be tested (and maybe a new ATH).
If a Daily candle closes below $60000 and Daily EMA21, Bitcoin would likely test the lower range between ($57500~$58500).
If there is a new ATH, we can draw our Fibonacci extensions to approximate the probable targets. Also, if a Weekly candle closes above $62000, it would be very likely Bitcoin will have a new ATH.
Note that all of these are just possibilities, and a trader does not care about the direction of volatility. A trader trades the volatility.
Thanks for your time.
Regards, Hashem.
Bitcoin (BTC) Long-term & Mid-term AnalysisBitcoin (BTC) Long-term & Mid-term Analysis
As you can see Bitcoin tested Weekly support and EMA21 and so far a not-so-good bounce. still, the Weekly trend is not bearish.
However Daily is starting to change of behavior because when BTC corrected from $58k to $50k, open interest rose up.
On a weekly basis, if $45k breaks, the $38k ~ $32k range test would be highly probable.
But until then Bitcoin could create a very boring range now and just frustrate people.
Bitcoin Multi TimeFrame Analysis4 Time-frames are on my watchlist.
In the 4H time-frame based on HVP and trend analysis, bitcoin is in consolidation. And a huge range between $29400 & $32100! if a 4h candle closes above 32100, it can test 32600, and then it can break or reject. no one knows! but if breaks, the test of $34500 is very probable.
The 2D TF is a dogi candle BUT it must confirm. if wick below the previous 2D candle it will be confirmed and probable test to horizontal support between $22700 & $23900.
on the 3D TF, the HVP is expanding and if the 3D candle closes above the BB it would suggest that the upside trend is continuing. in parallel on the Weekly TF again if the weekly candle closes above BB, it would say the trend is not over yet.
Bitcoin LongTerm AnalysisToday I'll be watching Weekly, Monthly, and Bimonthly timeframes and get trigger trades from a Daily perspective.
Bitcoin's weekly candle closed with a good posture and didn't break the $ 11500 level. also on the Monthly, it is literally an uptrend and $ 14000 target. But in the 2M it's still processing. If the 2M candle closes like this, the 2M timeframe will be in an uptrend and again $ 14000 target ( in the longterm ).
So if a Daily closes below $ 10900 , it's probable going to fill the CME gap @ $ 9600 ~ $ 9700 . ( and then we must re-analyze the charts )
And if a Daily candle closes above $ 11900 ( or better $ 12000 ), probably bitcoin starts to test $ 13000 and $ 14000 in the mid and long term.
Because of the Nasdaq and SPX indexes and the bullish posture of them, the above breakage of bitcoin is more probable than correcting below $ 10900 ~ $ 10800 .
Bitcoin LongTerm & MidTerm AnalysisAfter Weekly close above $ 11600 now bitcoin caused a change of behavior on the weekly scale.
Weekly & Monthly Charts suggests a test of $ 14000 but in the ShortTerm, there will be some corrections and pullbacks.
For the ShortTerm, we can get $ 11800 as a pivot.
For the MidTerm, we can get $ 11500 as a pivot.
For the LongTerm, we can get $ 10800 as a pivot.
"As pivot" I mean if it's a break, it is a change of behavior in that scale and time frame.
Bitcoin on Macro is Bullish until it is above $ 10800 .
Bitcoin MidTerm and LongTerm AnalysisFinally, bitcoin broke its range and showed some life about it.
According to HVP and momentum, probably bitcoin creates a range between $ 10500 and $ 11500 . A Bullish Range for preparing for higher tests.
If a 4H candle closes below $ 10500 , it could test $ 10200 . and if that breaks, it could test $ 9900 ~$ 10000 . this 10k is a pivot level. So as long as bitcoin is above $ 9900 ~$ 10000 , it is bullish and this breakage is not a trap.
GOLD (XAUUSD) AnalysisAs you can see Weekly candles closed in a very good posture. next week the Monthly candle closes. And cuz of that every correction gives an opportunity for entry.
So the area between $ 1775 ~ $ 1826 could be a good buy entry for myself on Macro and Longterm Trend.
Gold can correct itself to Mid 1800 s and that could be a good buy for myself.
The Trend is your friend until another Trend.
Bitcoin Analysis Update (LongTerm & ShortTerm)After some ranging & frustrating price action, now Bitcoin is ready for a massive move and explosion.
Direction? No one knows.
If a 4H candle closes above MA 200 , it could test the $ 9600 , and if it takes out that wick, the test of 9900 is probable. But if it comes down to the EMA 200 , it could build a Death Cross in the 4H TF and could trigger other bearish factors.
But If PA tests the previous Weekly candle wick, the explosion probably would be in favor of Bears .
Bitcoin CME and Spot RSI LongTermOn the Weekly RSI , you can see a formation has been resolved to the upside and the RSI line tested the formation and became support.
And on the RSI , the MA and EMA of it have a positive slope.
So far So good.
This formation is on CME and Spot at the same time.
On the other hand on Moving Average perspective the lower periods are on top of higher periods and they have a positive slope.
Bitcoin Long-Term AnalysisAfter some heavy corrections due to playing out some divergences and negative momentum, now Bitcoin tested the 12H and 2D Golden Crosses. So far so good.
But the Change of behavior is when a 12H candle closes below MA200 and/or a 2D candle close below MA200 . that is when I say this is not a healthy correction and probably BTC will test mid $ 6000 s.
Also, the 61.8 is at $ 8200 . so that would confirm that level as a change of behavior.
But as long as that wouldn't happen, Bitcoin is not in danger. I am long from $ 8200 (now it's risk-free) and my Stop would be the condition above that I said. (but not in weekends)
Bitcoin Mid-Term AnalysisAfter some ranging price action, now the 12H Golden Cross and EMA21 tests are confirmed.
The 2D Golden Cross is on the way but not confirmed yet. As you can see MA200 on 2D TF is good support.
If a 4H candle closes below $ 8617 or wick below $ 8527 , it would probably test the lower support zone ($ 7800 ~$ 7900 ).
If a 12H candle close above $ 9070 or a 4H candle close above $ 9200 , it would probably first test $ 9300 and upper resistance zone ($ 9600 ~$ 9700 ).
Prices are on BitMEX.
Bitcoin Long Term
It's hard to be bearish if the BiMonthly candle closes like this. on the other hand, if the Monthly candle closes above EMA21 it's no longer bearish in the Macro and Long term.
But note that Bitcoin could test lower levels such as $ 6000 for playing out a Correction .
About that 2D Death Cross:
The first change of behavior was the candle close above the EMA55 . And now the change of behavior will be confirmed if a 2D Candle close above EMA200 and could turn the Death to Golden Cross...
Gold (XAUUSD) Daily DivergenceAn UNCONFIRMED Regular Bearish Divergence on RSI( 14 ) is present. If price wick to $ 1707 the divergence will be confirmed and could current the price to EMA21 which will be on $ 1680 Horizontal Support.
It'll clarify by markets opening,
But note that the Gold has been a pretty powerful market and somewhat ' hedge ' in this world markets crash. So don't expect this Daly Divergence Reverse the dominant trend.
Bitcoin Analysis UpdateThis is an Update for:
After breaking the $ 7400 , now BTC entered a range between the two ($ 7800 ~$ 8000 and $ 7400 ) Support and Resistance. ( 61.8 Fibo on $ 8000 )
The second test of $ 8000 is probable. BUT the 2D Death Cross is confirmed a long time ago and now the Price action tested the 2D EMA200 . I entered a short position based on 2D EMA200 .
As long as Bitcoin is below that moving average, I'm bearish and covering my short positions.
Bitcoin 2D Golden/Death CrossesBitcoin 2D (Golden/Death) Crosses case study shows that after these crosses, price action will test one or more EMAs to confirm the cross and Bots & Algos.
Will it happen again this time?
With every 2D Candle close, the momentum between EMA200 and EMA55 becomes stronger to the downside.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin could test the 2 EMAs but the change of behavior is when a candle closes above EMA200.
So as long as BTC is below EMA21, I am Bearish. but if a candle closes above EMA200 ( fake the death cross ) - based on PriceAction - I become Neutral or Bullish.
Bitcoin $BTC AnalysisWeekly CME has been closed bullish. A Higher High is now Confirmed on CME Weekly scale. Also an Inverse Head and Shoulders is present which its target reach to $12k on CME chart and which is an unfilled gap in there.
It's weekend so expect some crappy candles. But the bigger picture is building quite bullishly.
The Open Interest is also quite high that suggesting a big and Explosive move is near.
But on the other hand if a 12h candle closes below 9600 ( or 4h below 9500 ) it would recommend that the test to the 5 digits BTC is delayed. AND if Bitcoin loses $9200 the bullish case will be closed and down-side targets are back in the game. ( Mid $8k and $7K )
Besides the Weekly RSI is out of the bearish zone and Neutral zone with positive EMA slope.