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Bounce

BTC short-term play to the upsideThis is just a short-term play. The price is holding at the confluence of support when it should have nuked through it right away after coming out of such a large (and long) consolidation. Never ignore what failed breakouts tell you. They are just as important as real breakouts in determining where the price will make its next move. Looking for the support in 3900-3860 area to hold (and offer attractive entries, ideally in 3885-3860 area for best R:R). Targeting 3980-4000 area. I don't want to see a 4h candle close below 3830 for this setup to remain reliable. My previous (medium-term) analysis linked below still applies, but as we know, the price doesn't move in a straight line, and it will have short-term retracements until it eventually makes its way to a higher timeframe demand zone. Depending on the type of a trader you are, these smaller moves can still be played for nice profit. It's important to be aware that the larger timeframe momentum is towards the downside, which technically makes this a counter-trend trade. Previous BTC analysis for the medium-term (still valid):
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by eyupium
1
NIO Bouncing Off Hard SupportPlenty of bad news coming out on this one. Cancellation of a factory in China, reduced government funding for electronic vehicle (EV) development, and profitability going ever into the abyss. If this thing behaves anything like TSLA, we could see a nice bounce here. But why? The EV space is rife with optimism and hope due to the disruptive nature of its products. Much like the internet disrupted traditional brick-and-mortar retailers and telecommunications companies, electronic vehicles threaten to disrupt traditional gas-powered transportation. Looking back on the performance of Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and the like over the past two decades, and considering their role in disrupting and creating markets, it is no wonder why investors associate electronic vehicles with a potentially bright future of massive returns. Disruption creates opportunity to take or create markets. Yet there still remains the fundamental problem of profitability. If a company cannot turn a profit, how can it hope to be successful? Looking into the past, Amazon itself was unprofitable for the first 14 years that it was listed on the stock exchange, yet it was able to survive and thrive on the back of debt financing, steadily increasing its revenue and expanding its supply of collateral (equity). Regardless of the negative fundamental picture for new and disruptive companies, and the risk it poses on their survival, investors often look at them as massive opportunities. For a stock like this, throw fundamentals out the window - this is the realm of human psychology. Hope, fear and greed will drive the price into insane extremes, and timed correctly, can be quite profitable. The only fundamental here is this: can it continue to acquire debt? With all of that said, there is a setup to go long here. Hard support sits around 5.5 with plenty of upside on hopes and dreams beyond.
NYSE:NIOLong
by Derivati_Capital
3
Boeing Will Misdirect the BlameThe game-plan since December has been to prop these markets up at all costs; the PPT joined with the 6 largest wall street banks, Trump called a "buy the dip", the FED turned dovish, and off to the races we went. For the DOW to continue higher, they need Boeing to be propped up. I envision a classic blame misdirection onto GE/Safran, the manufacturer of the LEAP-1B engines used on the 737 Max 8. Alternative, the pilots are blamed. Besides offering what appears to be a conspiracy theory, consider the reaction we have seen off the support at $370. Another support sits at $360, and yet another at $330. The 100-day VWMA sits at $363, just between the two long-term supports. CCI and RSI are at historically oversold levels. There are a ton of institutional buyers under this bad boy, and nothing short of the truth (God forbid) will stop it from going up. I am looking for BA to stabilize around $360 to go long - no need to jump the gun.
NYSE:BALong
by Derivati_Capital
1
Bear trap before a dead cat bounce?Good day Traders Bitcoin has been battling with our DMA50 resistance, is now printing hidden bearish divergence on the daily, and we have potential for bearish DI cross looming. The recent short squeeze managed a 38.2 fib retracement after our drop from our 24 December swing high, so I have a 168.1 fib extension target of $2780 if we fail to get above DMA50. Although we had a strong volume candle on the squeeze, we lacked any volume follow-through for a continuation of a rally, and once we reached DMA50, our buying volume dropped off, unlike the build up of buying volume when we bounced from our December lows. A healthy rally would entail us taking the stairs up and elevator down but this was an elevator straight to our DMA50 resistance. We could potentially have a drop / bear trap from here, breaking below WMA200 to set new lows, invalidating the triangle from my previous chart and forming support of a large falling wedge, triggering stops just below $3k. Bitcoin should then have a dead cat bounce, first back above WMA200, then to wedge resistance, and then a breakout with a $4200-$4400 resistance target sometime towards the end of March / start of April. When btc reaches $4200, I suspect we'll encounter strong horizontal resistance as we have since we dropped below $4500 in November last year and we should meet our DMA100. Depending on the strength of trend and bottom-calling fomo, we should have a 38.2 fib retracement back to our 61.8 fib support, somewhere around $3670, which will give us 168.1 fib bull trap extension target of $5110 (to DMA200) once we break above that $4240 - $4480 and DMA100 resistance. If we have a deeper 50 fib retracement to $3500, I'll revise my bull trap target to $4770, which would be a 138.2 fib extension target. We should then potentially drop back to our $3k support, extending the bear market, with a move to new sub $2500 lows. Have a look at the NVT indicator which gives us a network value to transactions ratio and has been quite accurate so far on the daily chart for predicting the bottom/top. You'll see that we're in a great buy area on the weekly chart (flashes green for buy red for sell), but we still haven't bottomed yet on the daily chart, and you'll see that there was only 1 day where it flashed green in 2015 and that was during capitulation. Previous chart and potential to new lows from here: Scenario where we've already bottomed: Another bearish scenario:
C
by Corn_Reaper
3
FOMC Bounce SetupSome slightly bearish indicators to start the week off.100-hour VWMA has essentially been flat for almost two weeks, bearish divergence on the 100-hour CCI and fisher transform. Looking for a pullback to or below the $279 level before going long SPY/QQQ April calls for the FOMC meeting. With the FED, the president and the banks working in coordination to backstop any correction in this market, we can expect more of the same. Bond yields continue to be suppressed for a reason - to push cash out of bonds and into stock.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Derivati_Capital
BITCOIN GOT VALID SUPPORT ALONG CHANNEL PREDICTED Bitcoin just bounced from the support as I charted 2 days ago in the idea "Bitcoin's Support, Resistance & Ascending Channel for Next Week". The Ascending Channel is maintained pretty well, while the upper Resistance is lowered a bit to 4000 USD (Bitfinex:BTCUSD). A new Trend Line is added, which might be a new Resistance. Before the bounce, OverSold(Blue) appeared in 30m & 42m, indicated the strong support. To understand how OverSold is defined in "9 Seasons Rainbow Indicator", and to try DEMO on your favorite assets, Please check the underneath Resources. Details can be seen in 15m Chart ##################### DISCLAIM ################### This is only a personal opinion and does NOT serve as investing NOR trading advice. Please make their own decisions, carefully assess risks and be responsible for your own investing and trading activities.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by go8686
1
NZDCAD Consolidation Bounce or Break?Daily Price has approached the top of its consolidation range, and has formed a spinning top candle, a good sign of Indecision. Since it is in consolidation, this could be a sign of another bounce moving price to the lower bound of the range. 4 Hour Dropping to the 4 hour, we don't have signs of much bearish potential. There are signs of bullish potential instead, as there are strong bullish candles. There is currently a market structure level 0.90470 which has 5 consecutive rejections. Summary Looking on the Daily, it has potential to turn bearish, however the 4 hour doesn't look bearish at all at the moment. Will be waiting for more signs such as bullish rejection and indecision, or a strong break and close below 0.90470, showing a change in market structure.
by DarnellJFX
BTCUSD has a high probability for second bounce to 3960.BTCUSD, ETHUSD, LTCUSD, EOSUSD have OverSold (BLUE) signals in 9 Seasons Rainbow Indicator, which indicator they get valid support from yesterday's bottom. The pullback of yesterday's bounce has completed. There is high probability for BTCUSD to reach the previous height at 3960 before breaking down the support of 3870. The other altcoins should have similar price activity. The time frames of OverSold(Blue): BTCUSD: 15M ETHUSD: 15M LTCUSD: 21M , 30M EOSUSD: 15M, 21M, 30M, 42M, 1H
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by go8686