Get started

Bounce

Bitcoin is bouncing, is this the bottom? Is this the same question you were asking yourself (and others) when the price of Bitcoin was 6000? And when the whole space said it was, what did that do for you? What would the claim that this is the bottom do for you now? Trading is reacting, not predicting. Nobody knows if this is the bottom, people may have reasons to think it is or isn’t, but nobody knows. So the question “Is this the bottom?” is a fairly pointless one. I have reasons to believe this is not the bottom (see previous posts for those), but that may change next week (depending on what happens). If we reach 10000 by the end of the week I can say with a fair amount of confidence that 3400 was the bottom, but what is the likelihood of that? You need to understand that language used in trading is a language of probability, not of certainty. Having that understanding will alleviate much of the frustration trading may cause you. So, without caring too much about whether this is a the bottom or not, let\s see if the market gives me any trade setups to trade. Because that is what I can trade, a trade setup, not a belief about where the market should bottom. Two days ago it was looking very bad, but todays bounce looks like a strong one. Not the end the bear market though, but it could take us as high as 5000, and maybe even 6000. But let me not get ahead of myself. The daily chart shows a nice break of the IBR, which I suspect will result in more upside. Mondays candle got me scared of more downside, but yesterdays hammer and todays strength are good to see. The market was extremely overextended and in need of some reset, and its finally here. To trade this I’m waiting for a setup on the 4HR chart to materialise before entering anything to the long side. The 4HR chart is interesting. The bull divergence gives this bounce some nice momentum to the upside and its crossed the trend cloud and moving into the resistance cloud (kumo). What I’d like to see is price bouncing finding resistance at the kumo and coming back to the trend cloud for support. If that happens the indicator will most likely signal a long setup, and possibly a long entry signal at the trend cloud. Unfortunately, the market is rare so accommodating so I’ll have to watch and see how price reacts. If I don’t see a setup a signal, there’s no trade. FOMO is a terrible thing, and the key to getting rekt.. If you enjoy these setups and analysis please like and subscribe. It’s the easiest way to support my work and get spread this content further :) If you want to tryout the indicator and strategy, follow me and drop a comment or pm and I’ll get you set up. Stay calm, and happy trading! More information on the indicator can be found below:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by DariusZen
5
BTC/USD 1H/1D charts (11/28/2018)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin showed some bullishness overnight which shouldn't have surprised anyone. Looking at the 1D, we can see bullish divergence printed in RSI between 11/24 and 11/26-11/27. This has led to almost the largest daily move up since July. A few hundred more dollars of appreciation before the daily close would cement this. The question now is whether this is the beginning of a reversal or if it's just a brief reprieve before a trip to $3000. I realize many people are calling for a quick trip to $4300 or even $4800 followed by a drop down to below $3000, but if we hit those targets quickly, especially the latter, then such a strong move back down wouldn't support the bullish divergence narrative. Because this divergence happened on the 1D TF, we should expect more than a day or two of upward momentum. That doesn't mean price can't go down, just that as traders we should always recognize patterns and indicators that are playing out and their general expected relation to price movement. As I mentioned during yesterday morning's live stream, we need to see a close above the swing high at $4120 to even begin thinking about a reversal. That marks the confirmation level for the double bottom and will set up a target of the $4760 area which gets price right into supply. I don't believe we can see price initially pushing through supply at $4700-$4900 unless we happen to hit a strong pocket of shorts right below it. The expectation is usually to hit supply, drop back, and then push through on the second or third attempt, depending on just how deep the supply runs. This double bottom isn't as significant in the overall price movement of 2018 as the bottoms are very close together, but in terms of a shorter TF, it does provide fuel for a bounce at the very least and that's what we are currently experiencing. It is important to note that last night's move pulled price through the descending channel's resistance which has been present since the beginning of the drop, itself a bullish move and possible signal of a reversal. Further continued bullishness by the close of the 1W in four days would print tweezer bottoms which is a reversal signal. As an aside, price also broke out of the 1D symmetrical triangle. I'm not giving that pattern a lot of weight due to its very short printing, but the price target based on the size of that triangle would be around $4575. A push toward that level would align with resistance of the descending broadening wedge. This would provide a likely place for price to retreat, so any push through and close above it gives a possible reversal a lot more teeth. Finally, 1D RSI has finally moved out of oversold, which it has been in for two weeks, and is currently sitting at 30.34. The candle closing at this level or higher would be bullish in the short term, at the very least. I mentioned yesterday that I am expecting some resistance around $4340 and, today, Bitstamp is showing noticeable supply at $4280 and strong supply at $4350. This aligns with the overlapping 1D supply. I also discussed how OBV was looking weak on that TF but a move up through the end of the day would change that, and that's what happened. Daily OBV continues to print higher lows and highs supporting the current price appreciation narrative. None of what I said guarantees that a reversal from the lows is in progress, but it does start to build a case for it. Traders need to remain aware and employ strong risk management as always. I will be taking a closer look at these patterns and targets during this morning's live stream. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
BTC Update! Bulls continuing to rallyAnother quick update. Chart this morning I spoke of watching for BTC to trade within the low and our original high off the bounce of $3910 and we did that for majority of the day before breaking out to a higher high later in afternoon. I was looking for bulls ideal situation to have the brief consolidation and then get their higher high to give the confidence for money to re-enter. I personally entered on the consolidation earlier as bulls were searching for their higher low and established that at $3627. Bulls were then able to see a nice volume spike again and get a higher high at $4120. I did scale out of partial position just over $4k just to lock in some profits and will utilize $3627 as my SL area for remainder. Ideally for bulls now as we consolidate again here is a repeat performance with some brief consolidation, no spike in bear volume but get us a spike in bull volume to push to higher highs again on this bounce. Anyone who has remained on the sidelines, don't feel discouraged even tho the overall bounce from the low was significant % wise for many trading this weekend. Simply, zoom out. Look at the bigger picture. We finally cracked the 12 EMA on 4 hour but unable to reach 26 EMA. Zoom out further to daily chart and it is nowehere near changing the trend to favor the bulls and simply could turn into a bear flag and back down again. Those trading, we have to recognize these % moves get magnified down at these lower price levels as it takes far less of a dollar move to see a significant % move. BTC has now given nearly a 20% move off the bottoms this weekend which is great but a lot of work to do to begin changing any trend to favor the bulls. The massive drop we had allowed for a significant bounce and was main reason I was searching for a short term bottom yesterday when we were sitting around $3600. For now, I am personally going to look to lock in profits as they come and not get greedy or have any sort of confidence that we truly bottomed. I need the larger time frames to change trends for that to be of consideration.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by My2Sats
BTC Update! Did we bottom?This is likely the biggest question. I've thrown a lot more frequent posts up the past few days with the recent dump. Last post I discussed it feeling like we were nearing a bottom as we sat around $3600 and was preparing myself for at least a short term bottom to give a nice bounce and ideally a few days if not weeks or some relief for the bulls. Items I was looking for were a spike in bull volume to quickly reverse price. BTC then went down to $3457 before giving a strong bounce up to $3910 in under an hour. This is a 13.1% move in a very short time period. Exactly what I was looking for on a short term solid tradeable bounce and potential bottom sign at least for the short term. Unfortunately this came about 30 minutes prior to me waking up :-( I woke up right before it peaked at $3910 and looking at the size of the move, I personally had zero interest in chasing it at that point. Instead I zoomed out to the 4 hour chart to see the bulls likely are just going to set a lower high and may reach 12 EMA they have consistently rejected from. Thus far, easily will be a 4 hour lower high and has not reached the 12 EMA yet which isn't a great sign in my opinion. 12 EMA will continue to come down and may eventually catch up to price. Bulls are seeing consolidation here and thus far no red flags such as big spikes in bear volume. Shorts chart also gave a few signs with some shorts closing positions but nowhere near creating a short squeeze. I then wanted to compare this 4 hour volume with prior bull moves. This was the highest 4 hour bull volume we have seen since the bottom of $4218 and it resulted in a bounce to $4759 (12.8% move). Sound familiar? Sure does to me with that move giving 12.8% and this one giving a 13.1% bounce. Last time we had less than 8 hours before the bears knocked price back down to lower lows. Will this repeat? Nobody knows but I'd be ready for it. This is a pretty large candlestick that we may trade within most of today but will patiently wait and see. Bulls ideally need this brief consolidation and then leading to higher highs compared to $3910 to try and keep some rally going off the bottoms as well as instill some confidence for money to re-enter the market. Bears will watch for EMAs to serve as resistance and can reload or add to their short positions as remember, a 13% bounce for the bulls gives a nice big opportunity for shorts as well on the opposite side for them to get back to lower lows. So slightly upset I missed what I had been waiting for but unfortunately sleep does call at times. So remaining patient and recognizing if you miss the ideal trade entry, there's no need to chase and just wait for the next trade setup. Please like, share, comment. Love discussions regarding technical analysis. Just My 2 Sats!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by My2Sats
3
Bitcoin has chosen! Now: How low will it go?So, as I feared BTC did choose not to respect the 4200 support line, that many hoped would be a magical Gandalf Mana shield barrier or something XD No, as predicted, trendlines don't count a lot in BTC, since the support is more akin to a squareroot function in the log chart. Therefore, we can go quite lower, without breaking the longterm bulltrend. The question now is how long, and when? Considern the fractal analysis with 2014/15, we're a bit slower now, lagging behind 2 months, which makes sense, since the market has grown a lot since then. It cannot be faster, because more people are in BTC, therefore the inertia is higher, BTC behaves like a physical system. We therefore can point the date of the final low to March 2019. Now, how low? Hard to see, but the super strong bulltrendline since 2010, the SQRT support, lies somewhere around 1900. Of course, it can go below that, even to 1200, and then bouncing strongly. It only depends where the weekly candle will close, and I am sure we'll see an epic bounce with insane volume on that day. How low exactly I cannot tell, but somewhere in the area 2000, and as low as 1200. Distributing the buy orders will be a very good idea then. Daily RSI is insanely oversold, we'll see an epic bounce today from 3000, the weekly might even close above 4000 again. And we see, that BTC gravitates towards the old ATHs again. Did it almost in mid 2013, did it in 2015, and probably will either do it again, or at least come very close to that region. Be prepared, and make some good profit on that day. It will be a last chance to get into BTC at these prices, before the next bullrun in 2020 starts, taking us to the top of 100K.
BNC:BLXShort
by SebastianofMoon
20
Ethereum - Possible Bounce Coming Up Soon (ETHUSD)The markets are way too oversold and fearful right now, a bounce should be coming up soon. The next support level would be somewhere around $50, but I don't really see that happening for now. I consider one more wave down into the $100 region, then a correction to somewhere between the 0.382 and 0.618 Fib level ($145-$170). Should be a good move since the dump was pretty heavy and we have more or less seen 12 days of blood in a row. The harder the fall, the stronger the counterforce. Get your seatbelts fastened!
BITFINEX:ETHUSDLong
by REKTCryptoTrader
1
Falling wedge coming to the rescue? BTCThe price has been steadily dropping these past days, no correction upwards, no signs of a bounce or any kinds of reversal. Very similar to capitulation (it could very well be, but I don't think we're there yet, unless this drops straight to 3000-2800 from here). What we aim to catch here is a correction to the upside. Not a trend reversal, just a retracement/correction, which will likely be followed by another drop afterwards, but let's take it one step at a time. After large drops like we've seen recently, it is highly probable there will be a correction in the opposite direction. It's just a matter of where it will start and how strong/weak the correction will end up being. It's difficult to catch it (unless you like catching falling knives) when the market is so bearish, and the panic is everywhere, people looking for even lower prices (which we are still probably going to get, but they're more likely to happen after the correction to the uspide is done). Why is it worth trying to catch this instead of just shorting? Because it has the potential to easily turn into a 25-30% move from here (while the risk is 2-5%). It's a lot easier, especially as someone who shares public analysis, to call for more drops, lower prices, and simply go with the overall trend. Trying to find a counter-trend setup is a lot more challenging and difficult task, which some novice traders may not realize or appreciate. The best approach in these cases is to avoid using high leverage (or any leverage), and trade using carefully laddered spot buys. That way you're safe from being stopped out by a wick, but still manage your risk properly and don't go "all in" (which would be equal to gambling). The analysis: Falling wedge, bullish pattern, indicating (temporary) exhaustion of sellers. Bullish divergence on RSI, OBV and MACD (from 1h to 4h timeframes). Price consolidating at a minor support level (4210-4000). Negative sides of the setup: This support level is not as strong as 4800-4500 was, and the next strong support and a buy zone lies at 3586-3000 area, which is why the stop loss is a must just below 4000, unless you size your position in a way that lets you risk less which would allow you to hold and buy more if it dips to 3586-3000 area. Not recommended, but everyone has their trading style, and if it works for you, then stick with it. The wick below the wedge support line would normally render this wedge invalid. The reason why I'm still considering it as a wedge is due to the volume profile (lower volume while the price drops with less and less conviction), shortening of the thrust to the downside, and because that wick does not exist on other exchanges, and neither on altcoin/usd pairs (ETH has this same setup with a valid wedge, no wicks). It makes the wedge questionable. In any case, I'd limit max risk here to 2% (total capital loss in case you get stopped out), or 5% for really agressive traders. Not more than that. There will be plenty of time to add more to your position once the price confirms the bounce, and shows some strength (so far, zero signs of strength). In case the price manages to break out of the wedge, then Targets are: 1. 4649 2. 4825 3. 5100 4. 5339 Best approach here is to either way for a breakout of the wedge, or alternatively wait for the price to come down to the buy zone (the lower the better), and if we see the support holds, enter there with a stop loss just under 4000 (which makes your risk tiny compared to the potential reward). Risk/Reward = 1:5+ If this setup fails, then this would turn into capitulation and next zone to look for signs of a bounce/reversal will be 3586-3000. That will be a higher probability reversal zone, but I'll post a new analysis if we see the price down there in this move, without retracing upwards first.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by eyupium
10
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 262)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018. Previous analysis: “the next daily fractal that I am seeing is at $4,265 and that is exactly where I am expecting the next selloff to find support.” Position: Short BTC:USD from $6,353 (profit taken on 80% of position) | Short ETH:USD from $205.20 & $196.32 (profit taken on 70% of position) | Short EOS:BTC from 0.000808 | Short LTC:BTC from 0.00758 Patterns: Trying to break out of down trend from yesterday but having trouble. Horizontal support and resistance: S: $4,020 - $4,193 | R: $4,428 BTCUSDSHORTS:There was that big spike I was waiting for. Looks like big players have been taking out large shorts over the past couple days. Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.1021% (holy cow) Short term trend (4 day MA): Today’s candle didn’t even test the 4 MA Medium term trend (9 day MA): Right in line with expected horizontal resistance at $5,000 - $5,200 Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Has just started to rollover Overall trend: bear Volume: Today’s volume was the most we have seen since July 24th. It is red but I am viewing the volume as bullish (at least for now) due to the hammer candle that closed. Price broke down below $4,200 and the selling volume really picked up. However support held strong at $4,000 and a bullish wick resulted. IMO this is effort exceeding result and we should get a bounce. FIB’s: My FIB line at $4,262 has held strong. Have not seen a 4h candle close below. Candlestick analysis: 4h and daily hammer candles on high volume is very bullish (at least for now) Ichimoku Cloud: 15m cloud has been very helpful for resistance. Higher TF’s are not very useful right now. TD’ Sequential: Daily r5 | 4h hit a r9 + s13 yesterday Visible Range: Next average volume node is $3,619 - $4,366 | Next high volume node is $2,015 - $2,761 Price action: 24h: -9% | 2w: -32.2% | 1m: -31.36% Bollinger Bands: Another close below the bottom band. Watch for price to close back inside and then return to MA which is > $5,750 Trendline: Price broke out of 15m channel from yesterday’s post and is trying to support a throwback Daily Trend: Bearish Fractals: From yesterday’s post: “the next daily fractal that I am seeing is at $4,265 and that is exactly where I am expecting the next selloff to find support.” So far that fractal held as support since price closed above. RSI: All time lows on Daily Stochastic: Pulling back after buy signal failed Summary: I am very confident that we are going to bounce from $4,000 support. I have been eyeing this area for months due to the gap in volume at $5,000. I did start buying back some spot BTC’ at an average price of $4,225. However I am not turning bullish / calling for a bottom and I want to make that very clear. I simply believe that there is a high probability that I will be able to sell at my profit targets of $5,000 & $5,750. I have scaled out of my BTC:USD and ETH:USD shorts capitalizing on a very nice profit and leaving a portion in play just in case $4,000 breaks down. If that happens then I will have no problem holding onto my spot BTC' and if we do get a strong bounce then I will have no problem holding onto the small short positions that remain open. If we do get a strong bounce then watch for a serious alt selloff. People will be FOMO’ing back into BTC’ and I expect support to evaporate very quickly. Capitalizing on BTC:USD and ETH:USD shorts and then putting that profit into alt:btc shorts while buying spot BTC as a hedge seems like a great trade over the next 1 - 24 hours. (for ex: short ETH:BTC, LTC:BTC, XRP:BTC, EOS:BTC and then buy spot BTC').
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by Sawcruhteez
BTC/USD 1D/1M charts (11/20/2018)Good morning, traders. I was wrong about a pop back up after price breached the $4900/$5000 level and price has continued to move through lower areas of liquidity and support with only minor pauses. This is why I have yet to take a long position. Emotional trading and/or lack of patience are the most significant reasons why retail traders lose money. While waiting for a good entry doesn't guarantee you will be profitable, it does decrease your risk exponentially. Since trading is speculation, protection of capital should always come before growth of capital. That being said, we appear to be bouncing out of $4200 which is the next area of support. So, what have I been looking for in terms of confirmation? As I mentioned during the live streams, I am waiting for a nice hammer or other strong bullish candle on the 4H TF, at the least, but preferably on the 1D, 3D, and/or 1W. Additionally, a bullish engulfing candle on one of those larger TFs would also qualify as confirmation of a bounce at the very least. This should be preceded by a lot of very negative sentiment noticeable throughout social media (which I believe we are in the process of seeing). Although volume is higher on this week of downward movement than it has been lately, the reality is that it is very small compared to the Selling Climax in February. This leads me to believe that the current shakeout is a #2 Spring which is most readily associated with a Terminal Shakeout. Whereas the #1 Spring in February is denoted by the large and increasing candle spreads and expanding volume (large drop with large supply), the #2 Spring is denoted by large and increasing candle spreads but only moderately expanding volume (large drop with moderate supply). The question is, is this the 21 or 23 version of #2 Spring? We need to continue watching price action and volume to get an idea. If you have been paying attention, then you will have noticed that Bitfinex Longs have been increasing steadily during this downswing. Why is this important? Because you should have noticed that a significant number of longs have been liquidated as well. This means that more Long positions are being opened than closed on the down move suggesting absorption. Additionally, Shorts have continued to build as price dropped further. This leads me to believe that smart money is going long while retail is going short. Possible support for such an analysis can be found in social media as the general sentiment is despair and pain. These Shorts will help fuel the move up as much of the supply should have been removed during 2018's accumulation as well as the recent shakeout. Any strong movement back up should see retail traders FOMOing in as well thereby accelerating that rebound. There is no guarantee that all of this will happen, but it remains the most likely scenario at this time, once this shakeout is complete. The 1D has printed a large descending wedge of approximately $1200 width at its widest so far. This wedge also has the requisite four alternating touches to support and resistance. What does this mean? It means that if price happens to close above the descending resistance of that wedge, before making a new low, then we should be looking for a target of $1200 above that point. Consequently, the recent low and subsequent bounce so far has been a reaction to the 1M OB which I pointed out during yesterday's live stream. There should be an expectation of resistance at $5000 and the bottom of the 2018 TR at around $5800/$6000. A close above $6500 sets up strong additional bullish momentum. There is further support around the $3600/$3700 level. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks