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Bounce

When to buy the dipSo, it seems that the bullmarket continuation scenario is getting more and more unlikely by the day. This scenario would have brought us to 100K sometime this year. However, due to the continued weakness of bitcoin, a bearmarket seems much more likely :( But how can you trade a bearmarket? Well, it seems that one has to wait for the right buying opportunity, when a dip occurs, which goes significantly below the weekly bollinger band. Historically, in the 2014-2015 bearmarket, every time btc dumped strongly below the lower weekly bollinger band, a very strong bounce took place, about 50-100% bounce, every single time. So, trading this market is pretty simple: wait till it dumps below weekly bband, buy, sell at the bounce, after 30-50% rebound, to be on the safe side. Rinse, repeat. Wait for the next dump. And then, in 2019, the low will be reached at some point, and one can start buying good old cheap coins at around 2K :) Because the next bullrun WILL come, starting in 2020 with the halving. The chances for the continuation of the bullmarket this year, are not zero however. They are small, but this scenario is also not completely off the table.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by SebastianofMoon
6
AAPL: Sell Short Support levels for Bounces and ReboundsThis AAPL weekly chart shows all the support levels back down to where 2019 projected revenues will be in line with the previous Dark Pool Buy Zones of 2016. The 2016 support price range is strong, fundamental support for the stock. As you can see, AAPL doesn’t have precise technical support levels. Even on the weekly chart, the stock price does not stop falling cleanly at the highs or lows of each support range. This is because this stock is a favorite of RETAIL trading systems, Retail Gurus, Retail recommended stocks, etc. The inconsistent price action suggests that retail investors and traders are mostly day trading AAPL. If the large-lot professionals dominated the trading activity, each support level would cause a consolidation, bounce or rebound and there would not be so many wicks and tails in the candlestick patterns. AAPL's technical patterns convey that swing-style selling short the stock is likely to be rather difficult.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
COST: Sell Short Potential but Strong Support at 200The Daily Chart of COSTCO Stock shows that there is some sell short potential on the short-term trend IF the stock breaks to the downside below the low of around 216. At this time, it appears that is more likely given the lack of large lot buyers in the chart patterns. Support levels show the point gain potential moving down from the current range-bound pattern. However, COST is less likely to collapse all the way down to 50% from its all-time high. Why? Because it was never speculated to extreme highs, far from a strong support level. The furthest it can go before reaching strong support is around 200 for a bounce and 190 for serious support and risk of rebound price action.
NASDAQ:COST
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
1
Bitcoin is bouncing, is this the bottom? Is this the same question you were asking yourself (and others) when the price of Bitcoin was 6000? And when the whole space said it was, what did that do for you? What would the claim that this is the bottom do for you now? Trading is reacting, not predicting. Nobody knows if this is the bottom, people may have reasons to think it is or isn’t, but nobody knows. So the question “Is this the bottom?” is a fairly pointless one. I have reasons to believe this is not the bottom (see previous posts for those), but that may change next week (depending on what happens). If we reach 10000 by the end of the week I can say with a fair amount of confidence that 3400 was the bottom, but what is the likelihood of that? You need to understand that language used in trading is a language of probability, not of certainty. Having that understanding will alleviate much of the frustration trading may cause you. So, without caring too much about whether this is a the bottom or not, let\s see if the market gives me any trade setups to trade. Because that is what I can trade, a trade setup, not a belief about where the market should bottom. Two days ago it was looking very bad, but todays bounce looks like a strong one. Not the end the bear market though, but it could take us as high as 5000, and maybe even 6000. But let me not get ahead of myself. The daily chart shows a nice break of the IBR, which I suspect will result in more upside. Mondays candle got me scared of more downside, but yesterdays hammer and todays strength are good to see. The market was extremely overextended and in need of some reset, and its finally here. To trade this I’m waiting for a setup on the 4HR chart to materialise before entering anything to the long side. The 4HR chart is interesting. The bull divergence gives this bounce some nice momentum to the upside and its crossed the trend cloud and moving into the resistance cloud (kumo). What I’d like to see is price bouncing finding resistance at the kumo and coming back to the trend cloud for support. If that happens the indicator will most likely signal a long setup, and possibly a long entry signal at the trend cloud. Unfortunately, the market is rare so accommodating so I’ll have to watch and see how price reacts. If I don’t see a setup a signal, there’s no trade. FOMO is a terrible thing, and the key to getting rekt.. If you enjoy these setups and analysis please like and subscribe. It’s the easiest way to support my work and get spread this content further :) If you want to tryout the indicator and strategy, follow me and drop a comment or pm and I’ll get you set up. Stay calm, and happy trading! More information on the indicator can be found below:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by DariusZen
5
BTC/USD 1H/1D charts (11/28/2018)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin showed some bullishness overnight which shouldn't have surprised anyone. Looking at the 1D, we can see bullish divergence printed in RSI between 11/24 and 11/26-11/27. This has led to almost the largest daily move up since July. A few hundred more dollars of appreciation before the daily close would cement this. The question now is whether this is the beginning of a reversal or if it's just a brief reprieve before a trip to $3000. I realize many people are calling for a quick trip to $4300 or even $4800 followed by a drop down to below $3000, but if we hit those targets quickly, especially the latter, then such a strong move back down wouldn't support the bullish divergence narrative. Because this divergence happened on the 1D TF, we should expect more than a day or two of upward momentum. That doesn't mean price can't go down, just that as traders we should always recognize patterns and indicators that are playing out and their general expected relation to price movement. As I mentioned during yesterday morning's live stream, we need to see a close above the swing high at $4120 to even begin thinking about a reversal. That marks the confirmation level for the double bottom and will set up a target of the $4760 area which gets price right into supply. I don't believe we can see price initially pushing through supply at $4700-$4900 unless we happen to hit a strong pocket of shorts right below it. The expectation is usually to hit supply, drop back, and then push through on the second or third attempt, depending on just how deep the supply runs. This double bottom isn't as significant in the overall price movement of 2018 as the bottoms are very close together, but in terms of a shorter TF, it does provide fuel for a bounce at the very least and that's what we are currently experiencing. It is important to note that last night's move pulled price through the descending channel's resistance which has been present since the beginning of the drop, itself a bullish move and possible signal of a reversal. Further continued bullishness by the close of the 1W in four days would print tweezer bottoms which is a reversal signal. As an aside, price also broke out of the 1D symmetrical triangle. I'm not giving that pattern a lot of weight due to its very short printing, but the price target based on the size of that triangle would be around $4575. A push toward that level would align with resistance of the descending broadening wedge. This would provide a likely place for price to retreat, so any push through and close above it gives a possible reversal a lot more teeth. Finally, 1D RSI has finally moved out of oversold, which it has been in for two weeks, and is currently sitting at 30.34. The candle closing at this level or higher would be bullish in the short term, at the very least. I mentioned yesterday that I am expecting some resistance around $4340 and, today, Bitstamp is showing noticeable supply at $4280 and strong supply at $4350. This aligns with the overlapping 1D supply. I also discussed how OBV was looking weak on that TF but a move up through the end of the day would change that, and that's what happened. Daily OBV continues to print higher lows and highs supporting the current price appreciation narrative. None of what I said guarantees that a reversal from the lows is in progress, but it does start to build a case for it. Traders need to remain aware and employ strong risk management as always. I will be taking a closer look at these patterns and targets during this morning's live stream. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks