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Bounce

AMZN: Waiting for a Juicy Little BouncePrimary Chart: AMZN's Primary Downtrend with Parallel Channel, Daily 8 and 21 EMAs, Fibonacci Levels Summary: 1. SquishTrade's longer-term view is bearish. In the short-term, prices could bounce to retrace the first wave of decline from the November 15 high at $103.79. 2. Short-term bounce targets are $100. After the bounce reverses lower, downside price targets are $78-$82. 3. The existence of a primary downtrend suggests probabilities favor more weakness ahead despite any bounces that may occur into early December or year end. But the existence of a secular uptrend suggests that prices could behave in a more complex manner, whipsawing around the secular uptrend, or even surprising to the upside for a while given the length, and therefore strength, of this very long term trendline. So be ready for anything. 4. Reacting with flexibility to the levels and the technical patterns is a better approach than blindly relying on a forecast, even if the forecast is well reasoned, and even if it was produced by some sort of expert. SquishTrade is waiting for a juicy little bounce in AMZN. That bounce may help determine whether the corrective rally off the YTD lows is finished. At the outset, SquishTrade holds a longer-term bearish view on AMZN. Please see the technical basis for this bearish view in the chart and post below. This longer-term view is slightly complicated by the fact that the primary trend (over the past year) is on a collision course with a 25-year secular uptrend. Supplementary Chart A In the short-term, an imminent bounce looks possible. A falling wedge pattern, shown below in Supplementary Chart B, typically provides a bullish signal. But if it breaks bearishly, that would be more damaging and bearish, more surprising and unexpected, potentially causing a steeper than normal selloff. This is because the pattern catches market participants off guard by breaking in the opposite direction from what is expected. Supplementary Chart B To determine whether the corrective rally off the YTD low is finished, evaluate any near-term bounces and whether they remain below the November 15 peak at $103.79. Any short positions should be entered with key risk levels defined, and if a short were entered around $99-$102, the November 15 high at $103.79 might be an excellent invalidation point—depending of course on the risk tolearance, overall trading approach, and position size (position size is integrally related to the stop or invalidation level). Here is an intraday chart showing a hypothetical illustration showing one way this bounce could unfold as a short setup: Supplementary Chart C If the bounce reverses underneath the November 15 high and shows confirmation of the next leg down, then a reasonable target lies at the $78-$82 range. This is support at the lower edge of the parallel channel as well as an area with key Fibonacci projection targets and the 25-year secular uptrend (depending when exactly the next leg down occurs, as that 25-year trendline's slope causes the support level to rise over time). If the bounce takes out the November 15 high at $103.79, however, then the corrective rally has not completed. In this case, the corrective bounce off the lows may have further to run before AMZN likely reverses back lower. If the November 15, 2022, highs are taken, consider the upper Fibonacci clusters (the higher yellow circle on the Primary Chart) where price may chose to reverse lower. This level is at $112-$113. In short, SquishTrade favors AMZN to go lower to $78 to $82 within the next couple months. The main forecast is lower over time. The short-term forecast is potentially higher in a bounce first. The bounce could run to upper 90s or even $100 in one scenario. Or the bounce could run to key Fibonacci levels at $112-$113 if the so-called Santa Rally materializes in December 2022. Bold predictions abound on social media for markets and stocks and cryptos. Many like to call the bottom repeatedly as prices continue to fall. Some like to call for much lower lows for years into the future. Both are possible, and it's possible no one is right if price just chops sideways for years. And the reality is that no one can actually predict the future with any certainty. Technical analysis is about knowing the patterns, seeing the levels and reacting to the way price unfolds when it encounters and responds to these patterns / levels. It helps to remain open and flexible to any outcome rather than reliant on a third-party forecast regardless whether its well reasoned and supported by complex cycles or De-Mark signals, and regardless whether every single Elliott Wave has been carefully labeled. Thanks for reading. Let me know what you think too. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by SquishTrade
8
TOTAL2: ALTS RELIEF BOUNCE INCOMING!!Hello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support it with a like and follow. Welcome to this TOTAL2 aka ALT MARKET CAP update. As 2022 is ending and this year might be not good for us but hope 2023 will be the best year for everyone and you guys make a lot of money this year. According to the chart, Total2 is an important support level and currently holds this support very well. We can expect a bounce from here. It means we see some relief rally in Alts in the first two weeks of 2023. Rsis also shows bullish divergence. Invalidation level:- Daily close below $430B If you like this idea then do support it with like and follow. Also, share your views in the comment section. Wish you a very happy new year everyone. Hope this year brings lots of joy and happiness in your life. Thank You!
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2Long
by CoreCrypto1
5
LTHM | Oversold EV Battery Play | LONGLivent Corporation manufactures and sells performance lithium compounds primarily used in lithium-based batteries, specialty polymers, and chemical synthesis applications in North America, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. The company offers lithium compounds for use in applications that have specific performance requirements, including battery-grade lithium hydroxide for use in high performance lithium-ion batteries; and butyllithium, which is used in the production of polymers and pharmaceutical products, as well as a range of specialty lithium compounds, including high purity lithium metal, which is used in non-rechargeable batteries and the production of lightweight materials for aerospace applications. It also provides lithium phosphate, pharmaceutical-grade lithium carbonate, high purity lithium chloride, and specialty organics; and lithium carbonate and lithium chloride for use as feedstock in the process of producing performance lithium compounds. The company was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
LLong
by DivergenceSeeker
BTC: WEEKEND PUMP? NEXT POSSIBLE SCENARIO!!Hello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support it with a like and follow. Welcome to this quick BTC update. In my previous BTC update i clearly told you that BTC is not break above $18.2k level and we might see a rejection from there and exactly the same happened. So what's next? As of now, BTC holding the green support area ($16.5k-$16.8k) and we might see a bearish retest from here. According to the chart, BTC should bounce from here up to $17.2k-$17.3k level and after that again starts dumping. So as of now I'm expecting a relief bounce in shorter time frame. In HTF, BTC still looks bad. Until and unless we did not get a weekly close above $18.5k thing not going good for us. Let's see how things goes in the next few hours. If you like this idea then do support it with like and follow. Also, share your views in the comment section. Thank You!
Long
by CoreCrypto1
9
ETH: MUST BOUNCE FROM HERE!!Hello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support it with a like and follow. Welcome to this quick ETH update. ETH is breaking out from the falling wedge-like structure in 4hr time frame and currently, looks like a retest. We have a good support range here. ETH should bounce from here. If it breaks down the support (4hr close below $1150) then this pattern becomes invalidated and we might revisit the lower trendline of the wedge ($1080) but IMO it should bounce from here. If you like this idea then do support it with like and follow. Also, share your views in the comment section. Thank You!
Long
by CoreCrypto1
18
Bullish after SoS and RetestSPY has been accumulating at the expected bottom of a larger degree wave 4. This trajectory is a near term most likely path. Initial target low 400s, followed by one more pullback running to target range - upper range 419 by late November or early December Mid term target by mid 2023 is a completion of larger degree wave 5 in the mid 500s. We have a discount after yesterdays... thing (SoS in the title means sign of strength) ** Buy once it breaks above 373.93 **
AMEX:SPYLong
by JerryManders
7
EURJPY I GAME time! Long from SupportWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! **EURJPY - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support! Brian & Kenya Horton, BK Forex Academy
Long
by BKTradingAcademy
10