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Brazil

Brazilian REAL to accelerate devaluation against the USDWe suggest that the Brazilian Real is in a long cup&handle trend formation here showed on the monthly frame. We expect an acceleration on the REAL devaluation once the 4 reais level is crossed. Other fundamental aspects in favor of this view are the Brazilian Government several recent failed attempts to revert the current negative patter, the decaying Brazilian economy and the country's political turmoil. We can't see any fundamental that could revert the course of the REAL devaluation, on the opposite the odds are stacking against it. Technically speaking the only positive aspect of the chart for the REAL is the overbought RSI/Scholastic for the USD. That signals a possible incoming reset of these indicators, and we would expect some sideways action for couple of months until the 4 Reais level is broken. We favor a long USD for the next 24 months trend.
Long
by Allenvik
IBOV - Nova tendencia de queda ou apenas uma correção?Olhando gráfico mensal da IBOV podemos observar que nos 3 grandes pivôs anteriores a bolsa corrigiu até a região que fica entre 0.6 e 0.7 de Fibonacci. Notamos que esse mês parece que a bolsa começou uma nova correção. Caso o padrão venha a se confirmar e a bolsa cair até a região entre 0.6 e 0.7 de Fibonacci teremos uma queda de aproximadamente 40%!!! Notamos também que o índice está extremamente afastado da sua MA200 e que na última correção caiu até bater nessa média e voltar a subir. Além disso, vemos que foi formada uma LTA (verde) e que caso a tendência de baixa se confirme e a bolsa vá "buscar" sua LTA teremos aproximadamente 40 meses de queda até a correção chegar ao seu final em meados de 2021. Vamos aguardar os próximos meses e ver se será feito um pivô de baixa confirmando a nova tendência de baixa ou se está sendo apenas uma pequena correção para esticar mais ainda o índice que já está extremamente esticado...
BMFBOVESPA:IBOVShort
by ThiagoFrank
1
BRAZILS STRETCHED RISK PREMIUM MAKES FOR "REAL" LONG OPPORTUNITYBRAZILS RISK PREMUM IS STRETCHED See "Summary Statistics" in doc below www.bcb.gov.br BRL's risk premium (currently highest across EM peers) looks stretched, given a continued pick- up in growth and reducing near-term political risk. COP's recent rally was likely driven mainly by a reversal of heavy short positioning, without a material shift in the country's economic and political outlook. Recent data releases showed that 2017 exhibited the slowest annual growth since the 2009 crisis (1.8%Y) and growth should remain sluggish in 2018, at 2.3%Y. Uncertainty about the upcoming elections poses an additional challenge for the investment outlook, given that implementing structural reforms could be key to helping to correct the fiscal deficit. The risk to this trade is that Colombia's economic data surprise to the upside, leading to further appreciation in the currency.
Long
by itzbert
Buy TPIS3: bullish island reversal and upward price channelHigh conviction buy on text-book bullish island reversal with significant trading volume increase and bounce off lower band of upward parallel price channel, also with significant volume. The pattern emerge as the company announced the sale of one of its assets (the Portonave port for 1,3B BRL), significantly deleveraging the balance sheet as part of an asset sale plan that, if fully materialized, will be transformational for the company. My two favorite and trusted independent research publications see more than 100% upside.
BMFBOVESPA:TPIS3Long
by BrunoBoni