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Breadth Indicators

#SPX #McClellanOscillator divergence finds bottom in SPXDid some work on breath indicators tonight and interesting how well the McClellan oscillator worked with divergence to find the bottom in the recent SPX sell off. From Investopedia: What Is the McClellan Oscillator? The McClellan Oscillator is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on a stock exchange, such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) or NASDAQ. The indicator is used to show strong shifts in sentiment in the indexes, called breadth thrusts. It also helps in analyzing the strength of an index trend via divergence or confirmation. What Does the McClellan Oscillator Tell You? The McClellan Oscillator is an indicator based on market breadth which technical analysts can use in conjunction with other technical tools to determine the overall state of the stock market and assess the strength of its current trend. Since the indicator is based on all the stocks in an exchange, it is compared to the price movements of indexes that reflect that exchange, or compared to major indexes such as the S&P 500. Positive and negative values indicate whether more stocks, on average, are advancing or declining. The indicator is positive when the 19-day EMA is above the 39-day EMA, and negative when the 19-day EMA is below the 39-day EMA. McClellan, S. (1989). Patterns for Profit: The McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index. Marian Publishing. A positive and rising indicator suggests that stocks on the exchange are being accumulated. A negative and falling indicator signals that stocks are being sold. Typically such action confirms the current trend in the index. Crossovers from positive to negative, or vice versa, may signal the trend has changed in the index or exchange being tracked. When the indicator makes a large move, typically of 100 points or more, from negative to positive territory, that is called a breadth thrust. It means a large number of stocks moved up after a bearish move. Since the stock market tends to rise over time, this a positive signal and may indicate that a bottom in the index is in and prices are heading higher overall. When index prices and the indicator are moving in different directions, then the current index trend may lack strength. Bullish divergence occurs when the oscillator is rising while the index is falling. This indicates the index could head higher soon since more stocks are starting to advance. Bearish divergence is when the index is rising and the indicator is falling. This means fewer stocks are keeping the advance going and prices may start to head lower.
SPREADEX:SPXLong
by MarcoOlevano
Breadth-Based Momentum Swing Strategy/Trend IndicatorThis is an interesting strategy. From my little bit of back-testing, RSP seems to work best just because it is a breadth indicator. Seems to work better in more volatile times with bigger moves. Daily timeframe only. Basically, tracks overbought and oversold conditions but can signal momentum shifts and trend. Looking for long trades above, short trades below. Don't use it alone, use it in confluence with your TA. 3 Major components: - RSP (SP500 Equal Weight Index) - S5TW ticker added to chart (SP500 % of stocks above 20MA) - Ripster EMA cloud Indicator setup: - Add S5TW Line Chart as an indicator in a separate pane - Apply EMA cloud to S5TW (9 ShortEMA1 and 21 LongEMA1, disable all others) - Set both scales to Regular (will set to % automatically) - Add two horizontal lines at 85 and 15, these indicate overbought and oversold levels (you can do 80/20 or 90/10 as well) You technically could just buy/sell the EMA crosses, but your entry will not be optimal. There are three things you want to look for when a reversal is happening: - Bull cross: 1. Price to cross over EMA cloud definitively (MINIMUM 2 candles) 2. Higher high on S5TW, higher low after for confirmation (HH and over 2 days above should be good enough) 3. Move across the 50% midpoint - Bear cross: 1. Price to cross below EMA cloud definitively (MINIMUM 2 candles) 2. Lower low on S5TW, lower high after for confirmation (LL and over 2 days below should be good enough) 3. Move across the 50% midpoint After the reversal, you can take three approaches to exiting: - Exit once overbought/oversold - Exit with trailing stop or to price target - Exit with opposite reversal This back-test used the exit with opposite reversal strategy. The max drawdown from this small sample size of back-testing is just under 3%, but every trade ended up winning. - 100% win-rate out of sample of 11 trades. - Average move is 6% - Smallest is 0.42% - Highest is over 11%. Gonna be fun to track this.
AMEX:RSP
by taylorbray
1
Key Technical Indicators Signal Downside Potential for S&P 500The market has recently exhibited a series of bearish indications, suggesting potential further downside for the SPX: Price Action: The market gapped down after September 20th and hasn't recovered those levels. Short-Term Moving Averages: The 50-day moving average recently crossed below the 21-day, indicating a potential short-term downtrend. Moreover, the price struggled to move back above the 50-day level. Diverging Moving Averages: While the 21 and 50-day averages tilt downward, the longer 150 and 200-day averages remain bullish, suggesting a potential trend shift. Critical Level Breach: The SPX closed below its 200-day SMA, a traditionally bearish signal. Key Bearish Indicators: TRIN: Indicates more volume with declining stocks. TICK: Levels between -1000 to -1300 signal a bearish sentiment, hinting at institutional selling. VIX: A 66% rise in the past week reflects increasing market uncertainty. Prediction: Given these indicators, it seems probable that the SPX might not rebound off its 200-day SMA in the short term. There's potential for it to breach significant support levels, including S2 and the 1 Year anchored VWAP.
SP:SPXShort
by dburgos0127
2
S&P Double TopHistory and Introduction Everyone in the market today remembers broadly the financial response to C19. It We see it every time that we look at the price chart and we see the spike down and the V recovery. What a lot of people may not remember is the investigation into SoftBank for essentially causing a short squeeze by use of call options and gamma hedging. When that news story came out my long term assumption was we would be returning to the C19 low and that has informed every idea I have put out since then. News story www.investmentwatchblog.com An Explain Like I am 5 From Reddit When you write a call as a seller you essentially take a short position against the stock delta wise When SoftBank bought loads of calls that were out of the money then the writers had large negative delta positions against these tech stocks. One common way to offset a negative delta is you can hedge with owning shares to offset the negative position from the calls you write. As the calls were heavily wrote then shares were added to offset risk which contributed towards momentum. As the stock positions were entered it drove up price of stock which put those out of the money options closer to the money leading to more share purchases while SoftBank continued to purchase more and more calls leading to an increased share price between delta hedging and general market momentum. Someone can correct me if I’m off but that’s my broad description www.reddit.com Essentially when that news story came out I, personally, understood all these gains were unsustainable and were going to be given back. This was in addition to all of the other stimulus spending that was going on. There was still gains to be made or lost speculating in swing trading but my ultimate goal was to not buy the top and not to sell bottoms. Main Chart Analysis The main chart has been left pretty simple. We have the Gaussian Channel on top and we can see that in the 70s there were two points in time investors or traders got to buy below the gaussian channel. Fortunes could be made by buying below the channel and merely selling above the guassian channel. Loading up on dividend stocks would have also been very prudent. We can also see the opportunity came again in the 2000s. We can also see in purple the tops where the ADX has been at 20 or below. The 70s dip had the low ADX but the 2000s did not. It is not a necessary condition that the ADX be low for price to go below the gaussian channel, but it is suggestive that with the current low monthly ADX we have a fair shot of getting there. We also see that similar to the 1970s the ADX has been declining over each high for over the last decade. Not a good set of circumstances to be in. The right side of the chart shows the double top itself without any indicators and on the weekly time frame. As it stands right now it looks like a “lower high” double top but price could rally up 17% from the current level and this idea is still valid. The last top took over 300 days to develop and start to sell off to create the valley low. We can still have a significant amount of sideways as bulls get exhausted. Double Tops Double tops are suppose to have a flat base before the uptrend begins and then return to the flat base per Bulkowski, who is broadly considered to have written one of the modern trading “bibles.” www.thepatternsite.com The chart below shows what I consider the flat base to be. The fib draw on the double top does get us right into that range. Another thing to remember is that we don’t need to see an impulse that looks strait down. It is quite probable that price action takes out the valley low and then rally to test previous support as resistance. Here is an example of a double top on bitcoin from the 2018 bear market. The 4-hour chart provides the detail of a double top that developed over 25 days from the time the began to top to rejection oat previous support. So, not only could price action go sideways for some 300 days as the second half of the double top is created, but once price sells off we could spend considerable time in a suckers rally as price returns to previous support and tests it as resistance. Quarter Chart Long term, we have a chance to buy in the quarterly gaussian channel. This would require significant sidewise-ish or channel-ish price action for a decade. Dow Theory Basic Dow theory on bull markets has three phases, accumulation (smart money), public participation, and excess. From there we enter distribution, public participation, and panic. One tenant of Dow theory is indices must confirm one another. www.investopedia.com My linked idea will show that I thought that NDX would have a bull trap. That idea has been invalidated because rather than forming a classic bull trap NDX is likewise in a double top. But having both NDX and SPX in a topping formation suggests that we are in distribution. Since we are talking about Dow theory lets look at the DJI. T Guess what? he Dow looks like it is in a double top as well. Having all three indices appear to be topping within 5 percent of previous ATH is pretty bad. NASDAQ/S&P Since the Nasdaq is more volatile than the S&P we can look for bearishness in the NDX/SPX pair to see broader bearishness in the market. I am personally staying away from the Nasdaq as an investment as possible until it reaches its own double top target against the S&P. Crypto Assets Since I believe the SPX is a index that could be topping for over 300 days and having several consolidations on the way down I would expect some assts to go crazy as investors rotate and individual assets have blow off tops. I expect some massive rallies with some select cryptos and then a lot of despair. A lot of movement can happen in crypto over the lifespan of this idea. Here is bitcoin. What is the traditional target of a rising wedge? The beginning of the wedge. And there is no guarantee that bitcoin will set a higher high. If it does I am selling and probably never returning. Conclusion As someone who thinks the United States have been off sound money since the creation of the Federal Reserve I see all of this as the consequences of late-stage socialism. Subsidies to support government initiatives, transfer payments, bloated public services, debasement of the money supply all lead to public excess in the stock market. The United States as been more resilient than a lot of other countries in warding off the pernicious influence of socialist actors but once the Federal Reserve was created the ultimate conclusion was clear, it was just a matter of timing. Of course, due to inherent theory and model failure of most socialists they don’t realize it is the socialist policies that got the market here. Just like most don’t realize we are in distribution. The distribution phase can take a long time and I expect to be ignoring a lot of news. It’s a distraction. I am going to make the trades and investments as I see them. The main chart focuses on what happened to the SPX in two bear markets, one in the 70s and another in the 2000s. What happened to sound money (precious metals) in the 70s and 2000? Quite simply they went crazy. What happened to the Gold/SPX ratio? They reached muti-decades lows. If the SPX is topping then I would expect to see a massive upside pattern on gold. And I do. There is a cup and handle or ascending triangle. Based on that the time for me to rotate back into the S&P generally would be when the SPX/Gold ratio hits a double bottom from the low of 2011 Likewise with Silver and the S&P I think it is a decent time to take my kids to the precious metals store.
SP:SPXShort
by This_Guhy
17
Bitcoin's Weekly Chart Analysis: Signals and Indicators 📈🔍Hey there, crypto fam! Let's dive deep into the world of Bitcoin with a look at the weekly chart. 📈 🕒 4 Weeks of EMA 200 Testing: Bitcoin's been doing this interesting dance for the past four weeks, where it keeps testing the EMA 200 (Exponential Moving Average). It's like it's checking for support, and so far, it's been bouncing off that level. 🙌 🔴 Bearish Signals Galore: Now, it's not all sunshine and rainbows. Those red dots and that ominous red cloud hanging around are telling us there's some bearish sentiment in the air. It's like the market's giving us a little wink and nudge, hinting that it might not be all smooth sailing. 😬 📏 Price Squeeze: There's this fascinating thing happening – it's like a price squeeze. Imagine a spring getting coiled up tighter and tighter. This could mean a big move is lurking around the corner. 🔄 📉 RSI Bearish Divergence: Our trusty RSI is showing a bearish divergence, but here's the catch – it's still on the positive side. It's like a tug of war between the bulls and the bears, and right now, neither side has a clear upper hand. 🤼‍♂️ 📊 MACD Cross: The MACD, another one of our favorite indicators, has had a cross, but it's also on the positive side. It's like two friends giving each other a high-five, but they're not quite sure which way they're headed next. 🤝 So, what's the bottom line? Well, the weekly chart is painting a picture of uncertainty. Bitcoin's testing support, but the bearish signals and divergences suggest caution. Keep an eye on this coiled spring – a big move might be just around the corner. And as always, stay sharp and trade wisely! 💪💰
INDEX:BTCUSD
by sailortrades
2
Potential Long Awaits For MRNAWait for that big green candle Appear. Pattern Analysis: We will perform a detailed analysis of MRNA's past performance, including its price movements, volume, and other relevant factors. Our goal is to identify patterns and trends that could indicate future price action. Trend Lines: One of the most common tools used in pattern recognition is trend lines. These lines connect a series of highs or lows and form a channel that helps predict future price movement. We will draw several trend lines on MRNA's historical price chart to identify potential areas of support and resistance. Breakout Scenario: Our analysis reveals a clear uptrend in MRNA's price over the past year, which suggests that the stock is likely to continue growing. However, we need to confirm this hypothesis by looking for signs of a breakout. A breakout occurs when the stock breaks above a previously established resistance level, indicating a change in the overall trend. Long Idea: Based on our analysis, we believe that MRNA has the potential to experience a breakout and continue its upward trend. Specifically, we are looking for a scenario where the stock closes above the upper end of a previously established trend line. This would indicate a shift in the overall trend and potentially signal a continuation of the current upswing. Position Sizing: When implementing this trade, we recommend taking a medium-to-long position size. This allows us to ride out any potential pullbacks while still maintaining a significant allocation to the stock. Stop-Loss Management: We will set a stop loss at the previous day's low, which will act as a buffer against unexpected losses. Additionally, we will monitor the stock's volatility and adjust the stop loss accordingly to avoid excessive risk exposure. Exit Strategy: Our exit strategy will involve closing the position once the stock reaches a predetermined target price or when it experiences a significant correction. We will also monitor news and events that could impact the stock's performance and adjust our positions accordingly. Conclusion: In conclusion, our analysis indicates that MRNA has the potential to continue its upward trend. We believe that the stock offers a promising entry point for long positions. Please do your own due diligence before taking the long position.
NASDAQ:MRNALong
by stocktechbot
URA vs. U308 Futures ~ Snapshot TA / Uranium Bull IndicatorPerformance comparison between Global X Uranium ETF versus U308 Futures. One of many Momentum Indicators out there that track Bullish movements in Uranium Sector. Uranium stocks haven't always been closely-correlated to Futures due to their "risk-on" nature...so when stocks start outperforming when Futures + other confluences are also rallying.. You might have a good ol' fashion Uranium Bull run on your hands. Boost/Follow appreciated, cheers. Futures: COMEX:UX1! COMEX:UX2! ASX ETFs: ASX:ATOM ASX:URNM US/OTC ETFs: OTC:SRUUF AMEX:URA NASDAQ:URNJ AMEX:URNM
AMEX:URALong
by BlueHatInvestor
3
QRTEA is in a bottleneckIt appears QRTEA is facing a bottleneck once we draw the bollinger band on a weekly basis, meaning low volatility, this situation usually do not take too long before it starts to widen up. We have a positive EMA Cross which can be considered as a bullish signal. If we take both indicators together, it may be possible to expect a maeaningful ride on price during these days or weeks. Finally we know Michael Burry invested over $1.5M on this company during 2Q 2023 at $0.99, so he was (or is) optimistic about the future of this company at that price, thus considering the current price (which is 14% lower vs Burry's), is a great opportunity to capitalize on this. Stay alert. Support: 0.80 Resistance: 1.2
NASDAQ:QRTEALong
by amateur_trad3r
OverboughtLike many shares today the stock is overbought and a correction is long due. Yesterday we've seen a desperate attempt to reach the February high again. But neither this nor the January low could be reached again. The bulls have run out of velocity immediately. The upper range of the Donchian Channel is an additional resistance to be overcome for a continued rise. Yesterday we had opened with a window which is still open and has to be closed again. But I admit that the window may support the price for a little wile so that there may be 1 or 2 sideward days now. All in all I support the idea of a correction to begin soon. The weekly Fibonacci levels and the VWAPs also support my idea, By the way, if the day ends with a Hanging Man this will be a good signal for a beginning correction.
NYSE:CIShort
by motleifaul
CVNA possible price action on 7/21Shorted CVNA when it broke support at $50 after a huge leg up on Wednesday. Looking ahead to Friday, VWMA and MACD on 15m chart could flip positive during early trading - pushing price up along the edge of the cloud - before hitting heavy resistance around $48.30. If the price follows the dotted arrow pattern, it may drop significantly before close or after hours. Price went down slightly during after hours trading on Thursday and could crash to <$40 at open. The catalyst Friday will be whether dilution news is released, and if so, when. Going to watch closely in the morning before buying more puts, but overall I'm pretty confident that CVNA will continue to decline through the next week. Expecting price to stay in the $38-$48 range 7/21.
NYSE:CVNAShort
by ap769
Indicators that can identify trends: MS-Signal indicatorHello? Traders, welcome. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please also click "Boost". Have a good day. ------------------------------------- (LINKUSDT chart) The composition of the chart consists of price and volume. Therefore, chart analysis can be interpreted differently depending on how you interpret price and volume. First of all, if you look at the price part, you can see that the trend and various indicators were created based on price candles and moving averages. Therefore, it will be difficult to interpret the chart as the concept of the arrangement of the candles and the price moving average is not established. The array of price candles, that is, the high and low points formed by connecting the candles, draws each trend line to check which direction the current price movement is moving. However, it is necessary to be careful because it is difficult to find the highs and lows of a low time frame chart, so it is possible to draw an incorrect trend line. A false trend line means that you drew a trend line, but did nothing with it. The more false trend lines you have, the less information you can get from chart analysis, and the trading strategy created with such reduced information loses its usefulness, so you need a solid basis even when drawing a trend line. With a firm basis on how to draw a trend line, we will have time to explain in detail later on how to draw it. The MS-Signal indicator shown in this chart is an indicator that can confirm the trend by using the formula of the MACD indicator. Therefore, it is necessary to become familiar with the interpretation method using MS-Signal indicators before practicing drawing trend lines. The MS-Signal indicator utilizes the formula of the MACD indicator. If you look at the formula of the MACD indicator, you can see that it was created using a moving average. Therefore, if you understand the concept of moving averages, I think you will have no difficulty in using the MACD indicator. MS-Signal indicator consists of M-Signal indicator and S-Signal indicator. Therefore, an arrangement of M-Signal indicator > S-Signal indicator means that it is in an uptrend. During this uptrend, if the price candle holds the price above the MS-Signal indicator, it means that the uptrend is likely. We have also explained indicators that use volume to mark support and resistance points. That index is the OBV index included in the HA-MS index. The OBV indicator is an indicator that shows the change in trading volume due to price fluctuations, and the key point of the OBV indicator is 0. Interpretation of trading volume can be difficult to understand, so we will take time to explain in detail when the explanation of the price chart part is being finalized. In this chart, the 'Vol & Trend' sub-indicator includes indicators that utilize trading volume. What I want to explain this time is about the MS-Signal indicator explained above. Since the MS-Signal indicator is published in the trading view formula, you can look it up if you want to know the formula. (HA-MS indicator) MS-Signal indicators are composed of M-Signal indicators and S-Signal indicators. Among these two indicators, the key indicator is the M-Signal indicator. Therefore, it is designed to display M-Signal indicators of 1M, 1W, and 1D charts separately. Utilizing these indicators, it plays a role in showing the overall trend of the price chart immediately even if it is below the 1D chart. (4h chart) The 4h chart above is a chart set to display only the M-Signal indicators of the 1D, 1W, and 1M charts. If the M-Signal indicators form a regular arrangement (1D > 1W > 1M), you can see that there is an upward trend from a long-term perspective, just by looking at the 4h chart. These marks can reduce the time it takes to analyze a chart because it can shorten the viewing time when viewing multiple charts. It also reduces the chance of getting caught in a whipsaw by price fluctuations. Chart analysis is just analysis, you need a trading strategy to trade. Chart analysis should focus on finding support and resistance, as it is possible to find support and resistance points by analyzing the shape of the chart in order to create a trading strategy. As mentioned above, all you need for chart analysis is the shape of the candlestick and the concept of the moving average line. Therefore, if this concept is in place, all the indicators shown in this chart are unnecessary. However, chart analysis can take a long time, and it is recommended to use indicators that are basically reliable even in order to reduce psychological agitation caused by whipsaw-like volatility. Descriptions of the MS-Signal indicator have been published several times. Therefore, after candlesticks and moving averages, the indicator that must be familiar to the eye is the MS-Signal indicator. This is because I think there is no better indicator than the MS-Signal indicator to find out the trend of the chart. -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------- ** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment. ** Even if you know other people's know-how, it takes a considerable period of time to make it your own. ** This is a chart created with my know-how. ---------------------------------
Education
by readCrypto
1
OPEN breaks out. Can it continue?OPEN a disruptive company in the residential real estate sector as shown on the 1H chart has continued out of a pullback. Is the continuation sustainable? I believe that inflation has become imbedded into the economy. Banks have survived the crisis with federal support and action. The Z score and relative trend index are impressive with the present indications. In an abundance of caution, the mass index is approaching the reversal zone above and could be somewhat predictive of a potential reversal. Moreover, the anchored VWAP lines with an origination ten trading days back shows price at three standard deviations above the mean VWAP. Overall, I believe that I should not enter a long uptrend this far into its extension when there are signs based on technical indicators. Instead, I will watch for another pullback or actual retracement.
NASDAQ:OPEN
by AwesomeAvani
SPY: FLUSH OR RALLY / MARKET BREADTH / MARKET MAKERS TIMINGDescription: In the chart above I have provided a semi-macro analysis of SPY that compares ongoing market rally and past rallies within the range of 420 & 360 Points. Points: 1. Price Action is fast approaching 420 Resistance that has been indicative of a turn around for past 4 rallies that failed to break the 420 LEVEL. 2. First 2 rallies under the 420 Level showed signs of congruence when it came to market breadth and price action. 3. Last 3 rallies including current one has shown divergence with market breadth along with a distinct pattern of consolidation that is followed by a sudden drop in price action. 4. It is important for price action to have another leg even if current uptrend is continued. First Price Target: 404.64 Bouncing Support Second Price Target: 400 Critical Support Market Breadth: 1. Showing strong signs of divergence with average price action continuing to rise. The Tech Sector is mainly responsible for the upholding of this rally with giants like AAPLE, NVIDIA, AMD, AMAZON, META, & GOOGLE fighting against bearish momentum. 2. For the majority of US INDICES Tech companies like AAPLE, NVIDIA, AMD, AMAZON, META, & GOOGLE represent a large majority of the holdings within many US INDICES. So it is no coincidence for why market breadth may appear weak when only a couple holdings are contributing to rallies meanwhile a large majority of the holdings are in the red. 3. Market Breadth Levels of 4200 have been indicative of volatile declines in price action in the past with an average incoming 10 POINT DECLINE over a day or two. FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com AMEX:SPY
AMEX:SPYShort
by DGSTBROKERACC
BNB Bias for the dayHow i started this market (Overall Trend is on a Rising Wedge D TF) Checked my 4H tf and its on my Support TL and on top my 20EMA (Symmentrical Triangle) On my 1tf it formed a H&S. but due to volume i am not confident on the pump but if it goes my entry is set on a retest to the neckline All Ema above the Candle if it Breaks down i will wait for a retest on my Support trend line for a ride to hell INDICATORS Hull Suite : 1H hull ind. breakout to the Green Fair Value Gap: Two FVG to cover up liquidity On Balance Volume: OBv on a side ways movement(No volume)
by lorenzoruiz1