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BITCOIN - A Dangerous WeekendHello everyone, rouzwelt here I've been talking about the probability of bitcoin dumping in my last few posts, I have pointed the reasons behind my opinion and as you can see in the screenshot below of my last post on bitcoin hourly timeframe, price has dumped quite accurately compared to my projection, so this post is a follow-up on that post. Right now price is sitting on the lower side of the purple downward channel, it started its move from upper side of the channel to the lower side with 3 touches on the red down-trend line which makes that trend line valid. So as we are heading into the weekend we can expect higher volatility due to lower liquidity in the market, and that can be the catalyst for a possible break-down as price is reaching the crossing point of the lower side of the purple channel, main blue down-trend line and red short down-trend line which makes this point a critical one in TA terms as probably many traders are closely monitoring the price action near it. I believe that a break-down is more probable at this moment when I look at the current technical and fundamental data. But don't get me wrong, price is at support zone of 30 - 32k and it's a strong psychological one, so a bounce can happen. But the issue is that bulls are not doing much, in fact if you look at previous times when price reached this support zone, it bounced quickly and sharply, but right now so far bull couldn't repeat that, and that brings the question that are the bulls' efforts still enough to hold the support or not? Well if that is not easy for bulls, then they should wait and see how much more difficult their job will be if they manage to bring us back to 35K and above. They have a lot work ahead of them compared to bears, so if we want to see higher levels again, bulls must do a hell of a job. So all that said makes me give the odds to bears at this moment and as a trader I should leave my emotions behind the door, it doesn't matter how much I enjoy higher prices, my job is to take advantage of any opportunity the chart presents me, down or up. My short position is still open at 32850 and I have moved my SL to entry and took 30% profit at 31200, so I'll be in profit on this trade no matter what else happens. If you liked my analysis then please consider supporting me by hitting like and comment if you have any opinion about it, I'd appreciate it a lot, and as always have fun and trade safe.
by rouzwelt
BITCOIN - Don't Get Out of Touch With RealityHello everyone, rouzwelt here Just take a look at the screenshot of Bitcoin daily chart below, almost 17X in a year. What does it tell you? Have you ever asked the question that why it should have risen this much? What's the reason behind it? Has it added additional 17X worth of value in 1 year? What fundamentals have actually changed during this time to cause such an uprise? Well let me say that many people confuse Bitcoin with Blockchain (crypto tokens with blockchain technology), the point is that the real value, the real driver is not Bitcoin itself (tokens) but actually it is the Blockchain technology, that's where all the things are happening, that's where all the innovation are happening, tokens are just tokens, they don't add value by themselves, so in order for tokens' prices to rise higher you always need another person to pay a higher price than the last person, but there are not infinite amount of buyers of course and as price keeps rising higher their population decreases and also more possible buyers come short of the required capital to be able to buy at those prices. When the last guys buying at the top realize that price is not going to go higher for a certain period in time they start to sell and this initiates a chain reaction. Well in crypto there are a lot of HODLers who play a big roll in crypto massive pumps, but you need to pay attention that as the prices keep rising there will be less new HODLers, because it will be more difficult as they need to put away more of their total capital for lesser possible gains. All these things makes it harder to see higher prices in short period of time. And as you know Blockchain is still very young, we have not yet figured out how we will be using it in real world, the first impression was to replace it with fiat money, but that's not the case anymore, at least with Bitcoin, and about the ability to be store of value, well you can't expect a young asset like crypto to be able to deliver on that until it passes some real world test which happens over time, definitely more than a decade. So the whole speculation about the real world use of Blockchain is still not clear. We might be using it for a whole different purpose in 2050. You can see in the screenshot that since the breakout of 2018 ATH, we only managed to see a increase in volume at 20 to 30K uprise, and we just saw decrease in volume to new ATH, that shows that the price was actually driven mostly by retails, and retails have limited amount of power, but after price reached almost 65K, you can see huge volume and supply entering market. that is where whales came to play, swallowing every little man on their way, and I don't think they're done yet. Believing that price can't fall lower from here is just a fantasy, as I don't believe the current price is anywhere near being balanced from mining and leverage perspective, but I don't want to dive deep on those issues here. (you can read my previous posts if you're interested in my take on those issues here: ) Another thing to mention is the zero to negative premium on futures market compared to spot market, which is an indication of lack of real interest from traders and speculators. When there is bull market there is always positive premium. Anyway that was for a general look at the market, but now let's take a look at 1H chart (main chart). I've been talking about my possible short trade setup idea in my last posts which was about a possible entry after the breakdown of the yellow uprising channel and the blue down trend line. I've been pointing the lack of demand and volume at these short impulses up, and with time passing I was getting more confident that price will soon break the channel. Well it has happened now and I've opened my short position at 32850 (you can find my trade setup idea here where I talk about it in detail: ). You can clearly see the volume increasing as soon as the channel broke, again that's a sign of more supply entering. I should say that I hate to sound bearish, I hate the bear market, it's more difficult to trade but you always need to be balanced, and you need to know about bear markets so you can position yourself to be able to enjoy the next bullish market. So right now I believe that there is a good chance to break the 30k support level this time, because price was getting weaker every time it bounced from there, as it couldn't even reach to its last printed high. I believe that interests in current price levels have been decreasing slowly since we entered this 30/40k range, and as long as that is the case then testing lower levels to find more interests again is a great possibility. So be prepared and use the best tool you have to deal with it, which is risk and money management. If you enjoyed reading this post then consider supporting me by hitting like and please write a comment if you have any opinion about it, and as always have fun and trade safe.
Short
by rouzwelt
4
BITCOIN - It's Going As ExpectedHello everyone, rouzwelt here Well as you can clearly see in the chart, price is now reached to the lower side of the uprising yellow channel and is about to break below it, if you have been following me lately, you know that I've been talking about a potential test of the crossing point of the blue down-trend line and lower side of the uprising yellow channel in my post on June 30 (Link: ), this way it would be testing these 2 potential dynamic supports at the same time. But it's worth mentioning that we still have not fully broken below it, I believe we still need more confirmations before entering a short trade, and 2 good enough confirmations for us would be candle body close below those 2 lines in 4H or daily timeframe and also a new lower low below the last swing low (red dotted line). In that case I'll be entering on my short trade which I've been talking about lately. Below is a screenshot of my very last post, in which I was talking about my short trade setup idea at the break out of the yellow channel, and I've been projecting the probable price actions and right now as you can see it is playing out with good accuracy as I've been expecting. I also mentioned the lack of volume and demand at rallies up which is a crucial necessity of a sustainable uprise. But what we actually are seeing at this moment in the main chart is increase in volume at the current rally down, which is an indication of more supply coming in on these levels. So with all those said above, I'll be waiting for those confirmations I mentioned before entering my short trade, as I said earlier we still have not fully invalidated the yellow channel, so we need to wait a few more hours before jumping in on a trade, because before seeing any of those confirmations, price can still get back inside the yellow channel and continue its move up, so we don't want to enter on any trade blindly. I'd like to remind you to please check my last 2 posts on Bitcoin, because you can find the details of my short trade setup idea (entry point, SL, TP and ...) in full if you'd like to enter on this trade along with me, as they are important considerations before entering any trade. I'll be updating this post whenever I open my position. And please If you find this post useful then support me by hitting like, share and comment below if have any opinion about it, I'd appreciate it a lot. And as always have fun and trade safe.
Short
by rouzwelt
12
Bitcoin - Symmetrical Triangle & RSI Descending ChannelBitcoin is nearing a breakout from a symmetrical triangle: -The descending trend line started around the initial liquidation around the 19th of May, at around 41,000 USD -The ascending trend line started around some large buy-side volume when prices dipped to as low as around 29,000 USD The RSI descending channel is nearing it's top trend line where it historically rejects. What does this mean? In theory, the symmetrical triangle should take us to 41,000 USD or 29,000 USD following the breakout/breakdown. Considering the RSI trend and oversold & fearful conditions of the market, I am Bullish.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TheBadManner
Bitcoins Break Down From Rising wedgeBitcoins movement has been all over the place the last couple of days. The manipulation is clear. Pumping all night, consolidating throughout the day, and pumping all night again. No volume to really solidify the movement upwards. This has led to the breakdown of the Rising Wedge pattern but since then it has now broken back into it. Here we are in the middle of the night with no volume and it's pumping back into a Bearish pattern. Also coming off of a H&S, yet another Bearish pattern. BTC is fighting a longer-term trend. It has now been 80+ days since BTC has made a new high; It has never in the history of Bitcoin corrected for this long in a Bull Run and made new all-time highs in the same year. Bitcoins Dominance has taken a huge hit since June 27th and has yet to find ground. It is plummeting right now as I type this, while BTC is pumping. It could potentially keep falling for another 7 days or so and even then what is it that we should expect? JPMorgan estimates Bear Market is in control until it breaks above 50. More Alt Coins being created every week/month than you can count. Everyone who came in from the outside this year for Cryptocurrencies is still waiting for this moon shot. Influencers pushing pumps and dumping every chance they get. Crypto trading has become a trend. Greed Greed Greed. The strongest factor in corrections. Until the greedy are liquidated, BTC can't truly rise again. The question is... Who is more greedy? The Bulls or the Bears? Listen, no one should ever say something can't happen and there will always be a first for everything, but at the end of the day, you just have to look at what is in front of you. The odds behind making history after 12 years are significant and I question anyone who is confident or excited to put their money in that battle at the moment. ~Good probability we see 28k by July 13th. ~A strong break above 37k invalidates this analysis.
Short
by NoOneWhoIsSomeone
4
BITCOIN - Time To Make A DecisionHello everyone, rouzwelt here This is an update on Bitcoin in hourly timeframe, I want to say that since 2 days ago nothing has changed much, we are still seeing not enough power and demand from buyers, as the price is slowly moving below the main blue down-trend line towards the lower side of channel. We don't see definitive push from either buyers or sellers at this point, but that is going to change soon I believe. As you can see in the screenshot below of my last post about BTC, price has been moving like my possible price action projection with good accuracy, and now it's the time to make a decision, either up or down. You can see in the chart that it's pointing towards uprise right now, but I don't see that to be sustainable as I don't see enough volume and demand at these current levels, so even if we see a break up, I believe it would fail maintaining that uprise. Let me say it this way, If we had demand at these levels we would have been going up far sooner than now, and I don't think anything has actually changed during these 2 -3 weeks in terms of supply and demand. I'm willing to change my mind on that only in the case that we start to see more demand volume coming in at break up and rallies up. So let me say that buyers have a lot of works to do if they want to see higher prices in near future, and many other potential buyers are just waiting for a better opportunity, as they probably think that the possible risks for going long at these levels are far greater than the potential rewards and that is one of main reasons behind that we don't see them jumping in at rallies up. So my personal plan right now is to see wether we see a break up the blue trend line or we break down the yellow rising channel, I'll be looking for short setups at break down of the yellow channel, but for potential break up, I personally rather wait for more confirmations and volume to open any long positions at this stage in time, as my 2 last scalping long position both closed at break even, I was cautious enough so I didn't lose any at going long but that's not the case for many in these levels, so I suggest that if you are looking for long positions, have a tight stop-loss in place. That's all for now, trade safe and have fun.
by rouzwelt
8
GBPUSD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-UpIt has been over 300pips plunge in our direction since my last publication on this pair (see link below for reference purposes) and it appears we are in the middle of a correction phase that might incite a further risk in decline for the Pound in the coming week! It is obvious that the British pound rallied a bit during the course of last week trading session but relinquished some of the gains during the latter part of the week and the rapid spread of the Delta plus covid strain in Britain has a high possibility of threatening the already delayed economic reopening, which may further incite fear of buying the Pound. Tendency: Downtrend (Bearish) Structure: Breakdown | Supply & Demand | Trendline Observation: i. A significant Breakdown of both the Bullish trendline and Key level @ $1.40000 on the 16th of June 2021 buttress a clamour for Bearish tendencies in the coming week. ii. I also noticed that the Bullish tendencies that began last week appear not to have the strength to push the price further after citing multiple rejections of Trendline/Key level @ $1.40000 on the 23rd/24th of June 2021. iii. Should price try to climb early in the new week, I have identified a niche for selling opportunity around $1.39740/1.41000 with confirmation below Key level @ $1.40000. iv. A Further plunge below $1.38000 (breakdown/retest) might welcome addition to the existing position. v. CAUTION: Considering the overall Bullish perspective on this pair, it is advisable that we remain extremely patient should the price remain above Key level... Trade consciously! 😊 Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 300 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:4 Potential Duration: 5 to 10days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
EURJPY | Perspective for the new weekWe were unable to open a Bearish position in my last publication on this pair as the price continued to find a higher level ( see link below for reference purposes) but the current structure transposing into a Head & Shoulder - a strong reversal pattern suggests that the bears might lead to further decrease in price in the meantime. Tendency: Downtrend (Bearish) Structure: Reversal pattern (H & S) | Supply & Demand Observation: i. It is obvious that the price has continued to climb high for the Euro since the beginning of the year 2021 and it appears to be at a juncture where we might consider the beginning of a temporary correction after observing the appearance of a Head & Shoulder pattern. ii. Head & Shoulder: A baseline with three peaks; the outside two are close in height and the middle is highest describes a specific formation that predicts a bullish-to-bearish trend reversal. iii. The later part of last week witnessed price breaking down Y132.800, a level which held price "Supported" (Demand zone) in the last 17days with clues suggesting a risk of further decline in the nearest future. iv. In this regard, I have identified a niche for selling opportunity around Y133.400/133.000 should the price climb up early in the new week. v. Below Key level II @ Y132.800 might be a level for conscious trading as price running below the Neckline gives succour for Bearish momentum... Trade consciously! 😊 Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 100 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:3 Potential Duration: 3 to 7 days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
EURUSD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upWe are yet to find an avenue for Bearish confirmation since my last publication on this pair as the price continues to find a higher high (see link below for reference purposes). Continuous rejection of the $1.22500 level since mid-May 2021 is a clue pointing at the possibility of a bearish momentum building up at this juncture in the market. The prospect of positive clues on Federal Reserve monetary policy and weakness in the euro appears to be restoring some confidence back for the Greenback in the coming week(s) as I am looking forward to a Breakdown/Retest of Neckline which is also a Key level @ $1.21200 for confirmation. Tendency: Downtrend (Bearish) Structure: Breakdown | Supply & Demand | Trendline Observation: i. The line drawn under pivot lows is a visual representation of the prevailing direction and speed of price action in the last couple of months. ii. We have witnessed a sharp rise in the value of the Euro since the beginning of April 2021 and the multiple rejections at the $1.22500 area reveal a decline in Bullish momentum as Sellers appear to be on the verge of dictating the direction of price action in the nearest future. iii. Breakdown of Trendline on the 3rd of June followed by a sharp rejection of same during last week trading session anticipates a change in direction. iv. In this regard, I shall be looking forward to a Breakdown/Retest of Neckline (Key level I) @ $1.21200 for confirmations in the coming week. v. Further plunge below Key level II @ $1.19500 might welcome addition to the existing position... Trade consciously! :) Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 250 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:6 Potential Duration: 5 to 10days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
6
BTC-USD(Bearish Pennant Breakdown)After a brief consolidation in the last two weeks, BTC opened this week with negative sentiments. BTC formed a Doji candlestick on the weekly TF which depicts that market participants are currently in a state of indecision. At the time of writing, BTC is already down by more than 7% on the weekly basis. On the downside, BTC is trying to sustain above its 50-WEMA which is placed at $33.4K, however, if we get a decisive closing below this level, the next significant support is present at $30K as 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level is present here, followed by the next major support at $27.7K On the higher side, BTC is not able to close above its 0.50 Fib retracement level, present at $37K on the weekly basis, however, if we get a breakout from this level, the next resistance is placed at $40K followed by $43K. On the Daily TF, BTC has already given a breakdown from its bearish pennant formation and broke its ascending trendline support, along with a death crossover, which depicts selling pressure is most likely to continue in the coming sessions. Daily RSI has also broken its ascending trendline which also signals bearish sentiments.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by TradeDog-Research
Channel pattern in BTCUSD: move towards $33k, or towards $38k ?Market in the last 24hrs BTCUSD remained in consolidation. Trading volume has spiked up lately. Today’s Trend analysis BTCUSD is likely to move in the channel pattern in the immediate short term. Price volatility remained significantly low at approximately 0.85%, with the day's range between $35532.17 — $36808.30. Price at the time of publishing: $36106.72 BTC's market cap: $675.64 Billion Out of 11 Oscillator indicators, 9 are neutral, and 1 each on BUY and SELL side. Out of 15 Moving average indicators, 13 are giving a BUY signal, and 1 is neutral. Indicator summary is giving a 'SELL' signal on BTCUSD . Volumes have spiked up in the past 24 hours. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The analysis is based on signals from 26 technical indicators, out of which 15 are moving averages and the remaining 11 are oscillators. These indicator values are calculated using 4Hr candles. Note: Above analysis would hold true if we do not encounter a sudden jump in trade volume . ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Any feedback and suggestions would help in further improving the analysis!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Mudrex
2