S&P 30m Analysis: Unveiling the Perfect Sell Setup for Maximum📈 S&P 30m Analysis: A Perfect Setup! 🎯
✅ Price successfully captured its buy side liquidity and formed a breaker block, signaling a prime opportunity for a sell entry.
📉 Targeting the untouched sell side liquidity, traders can aim for a remarkable 6.5 risk-to-reward ratio.
💰 With the option to book partial profits at 2.5 deviation or hold for the ultimate gain at 4th standard deviation, this trade is a true gem. 💎
EIGHTCAP:SPX500
Breakerblock
ES - short-term analysis Yesterday, we witnessed a sell-off down to the 4-hour Breaker Block, followed by a bounce from that level.
There is a 15-minute SMT divergence between NQ and YM, as well as a 1-hour SMT divergence with YM. This could indicate the possible formation of a MMBM (Market Maker Buy Model).
Currently, I'm interested in observing the testing of two short-term BSL levels: 4158 and 4166. After that, we may see a rapid bounce towards the 4175 level, which is an OB on the 15-minute chart.
My primary focus area is around the 1-hour OB, which ranges from 4186 to 4190.
However, for a comprehensive analysis, we need to see the retesting of the Monday High. If the market holds above the New Week Open Gap (NWOG), then my long target will be in the range of 4198 to 4200.
Please note that the Monday High at 4222.75.
ES short-term analysisToday I want to see fill of the 1h Breakaway Gap - 4139.
My key level 4125. This is buystops level. Pretty sure it will want to test it to complete ATM/ICT Mentorship Model.
My Pre-market Plan for May 24, 2023:
Bullish Scenario - Break above 4165 (short-term BSL, 4163 NY Midnight Open Price as well) can bring some bulls —> 4175 - this is "NWOG" - 04/16-04/21.
Market looks more bearish anyway. Once it tested 4175 level and failed to hold it, I am going to play long w/ target at 4186-90.
1h OB - 4190 + 1h FVG.
Bearish Scenario - Break below 4132 ("NWOG" - 05/07-05/12) will give short trade opportunity with target at 4126.
Next my trade can be below 4120 - SSL on 1h chart.
Once it breaks this SSL level, it will open the room to the 4111.
Key Levels for long today: 4158, 4168, 4185
Key Levels for short today: 4131, 4122, 4104
ES short-term analysisWe have 1h Breaker block 4213.75-4220.50. We might see possible bounce to this BB and a drop to the 15m Breakaway Gap - 4177.
But it can drop from 4204 - there is 15m FVG there + 3m BB.
Break above 4227 will bring us to the 4244. This is Buyside Liquidity level.
I want to see fill of the breakaway gap first. 4177 and 4170 my key levels. They act as a magnet for the price. Once it fails to hold 4161 - SSL, we are going to have short trade opportunity with target at 4145. There is 15m Liquidity Void
Binance Coin just about hangs on to $305- but this could changeWeekend could see reduced volatility and Monday could set the direction for the coming week. With that in mind, the market structure of BNB is bearish
H12 bullish order block at $300-$310 saw a strong reaction in early April, but each retest had a weaker bounce. When this zone is eventually shifted to a bearish breaker, a retest can offer a shorting opportunity.
Entry: $309 (after a session close below $300)
Take-profit: $289.9 (23.6% extension level)
Stop-loss: $317.8 (resistance, and a move above will break structure to bullish)
R:R- 2.28
ES Monthly Analysis After Market Structure Shift, it bounced right to the Monthly Breaker Block and started selling off to the Monthly Measuring Gap.
Looks like ICT 2022 Mentorship Model to me. I want to see bounce to the 4232-35 level. This is 50% of the long wick on the down candle that touched Breaker Block.
After that I want to see sell off to the Internal Liquidity level at 3500. Break below 3500 will bring us to the 3380. This is Mean threshold of the Monthly Order Block
ES AnalysisES inside the 4h FVG and 4h Breaker Block.
Sunday Open:
1) Possible pullback to the 15m Breaker Block and bounce to the 4147-4153.25 will be great to see.
There is 1h Breaker Block (4149.50-4153.25).
Break above 4166 should offer the test of the daily Volume Imbalance at 4179.50-4185.75.
2) Failure to hold 4h Breaker Block should offer short opportunity to the 4h OB. 4087.25-4079.75 where 4079.75 is mean threshold of this Order Block.
ESM2023 Possible ScenariosOld Daily Volume Imbalance (4133-4136) became as support. Break below 4133 will open the room to the 4h Breaker Block - 4115.00-4105.00.
Hold of Sunday Open Level can bring us to the 4167. There is another daily volume imbalance at 4179-4185.
Keep my eyes on 4191 - Next BSL after break of the 4167.
Will BTC reach 30K+ or it will dump? BTCUSDT updateHi dear community my loyal followers, I hope you are fine.
Let me update BTC current situation and my expectation.
This week BTC pumped from 19.5K and broke not only 24K but also 25.2K and reached 27.8K. If you remember I warned you about BTC recent dump from 25K to 19K+-.
At the moment, you can see on the chart that BTC has created Bullish megaphone chart pattern/Inverted symmetrical triangle/ and tested its upper line where there is significant, one of the strongest resistance/.. There are BB, FVG zone, 0.38 fib level, 21 monthly EMA, diagonal resistance+ horizontal resistance/ etc. Look at bellow attached charts also to understand what I mean.
I expect BTC to break 1h bull flag reaching 28.6K/attached bellow/ , which will be fake breakout of bullish megaphone chart pattern / a lot people will open long positions, at the same time BTC sweeps liquidity above 27.8K then we' will see strong rejection and correction starts. When BTC reaches 28.6K , BTCD will be at 48-48.5K at main resistance/attached bellow/, where it will drop and during this BTC correction , we'll see mini altseason.
Pay attention that volume is decreasing while price is rising/bearish divergence/ also there is bearish divergence at daily OBV which doesn't support this pump)). I expect BTC to drop 22.6-22.8K where there is OB+FVG + 0.618 Fib zone, if BTC can't hold the mentioned zone it will dump to 20.5K. During this drop price will react at 25.2K small bounce, then drops to 0.5fib level/23.6K/ again bounce/this level could hold as well/ and drops to 22.6-22.8K taking out IDM/sweep liquidity/
Also keep your eyes at 23.6K 0.5 fib level, which is mid range of megaphone chart pattern. there is chance it can hold as well, but more likely 22.6-22.8K will be reached.
After the mentioned scenario we'll see new highs, at the moment I can't tell you 22.6-22.8K will hold or not, we'll see BTC reaction at that point.
Please don't forget to like, follow and share my ideas. I will appreciate any kinds of support.
NATGAS Long- Used SFP & Breaker Order Block, with confluence SFP at the Monday low on 12H, 4H, and 1H
- MSB to the upside on the 30m buying retest of Breaker Order Block
- TP1 will be Monday's high, will reassess there but there's a possibility of filling the gap at ~2.93 and could hit 1D FVG at ~3.05
GBPUSD - LONG - 4h 2h 1h RR3Liquidity grab sellside liquidity on high timeframe 4h, Range low bullish reclaim. Stacked 4h support, 1h support, 4h demand, 1h demand to support flip. MSB 2h and 1h, breakerblock 1h, confirmation by macd in oversold area and crossing from bearish to bullish on the 4h. Volume displaying bullish strenght to the bullish price action.
Smart money concepts.
Retail vs. Smart Money - Truth vs. Manipulation tutorial - *SMT*
SMT= Smart Money Theory. Look at the related idea for a previous tutorial on this. This will be a continuation of that tutorial, how we're taught to trade is manipulation tactics by the institutions, and how to realize whats actually happening.
When I first started, I started to learn how to trade under a an MLM company called iMarkets Live. Some instructors were good and were starting to catch on to what was happening to price action. Others just marked levels,. or tried to use way too many jndicators to find a trade. I ended up losing a lot of money that year because there was no cohesion. I find myself asking "why?" a lot. And if this "Trade the trend is supposed to work so well, why was I getting screwed so bad everytime I went to trade off that trend line. Until I fdinally found the one person who dug deep into the charts and found the truth and I've never seen any other trade get more accurate while trading live.
1. Price is manipulated on every chart. That is their commodity to protect and they'll go down in flames protecting their commodity. Whether that commodity is currency or stocks, there's someone or groups that own enough to control the chart. And that algorithm re-starts everydsay at midnight NY Time. Just before the London session starts
2. The charts above represent what a smart Money Technical Analyst would create for his chart, the second is the retail theory, how your "Taught" to think what tedhnical analysis is supposed to be. Fore example, you would normally out a trendline going down atop the downtrend, and when the price breaks that down trend then you'll told wait for the "Retest" of the price to hit that trend line. But sometimes it doesn't and you've missed your opportunity at a breakaway right? No, you just followed the wrong path on how to read price action. And could've caught that breakaway knowingt that it's not "retesting" the top trendline, instead it's finding the last price that the institutions sold off hard to try and make the retail traders sell as well. Evidently they were successful because the institution then come in and buy it up and a huge discount. And they buy up so much at the start of the run, it breaks the structures previous swing high In fact they probabloy are still holding a short position near that swing high so aftyer it breaks the high and closes above it, it retraces slightly back to the price area of the the previous high. Why? So they can then breakeven on the trade of holding that short while also capitalizing on the long they are taking because of how much of a discount they were able to buy up.
Lets take the current chart for example. When you see the price formation of a low / high / lower low, The last bullish candle in the high formation is now Resistance that will turn Support. I have the Low / High / Lower Low Color Coordinated with it's Breaker Blocks Border or just "Breaker."
As you can see it, each time it breaks the previous structures high (Where I write Break of structure with a line at the top of previous DAILY body that was broke and closed abnove, thje price then slighjtly retreats, back into that High candle's price range, doesn't close below it and then makes another large move to the upside. Its retreating down to a place where they could still be hold a short from the previous quarter (yes, you read that right, they have deep pockets, they can be in the red forever and ity weon't matter, they;'ll manipulate it until they get what's theirs, this is why Larry Williams has 90 day lookbacks in his analysis)
Here's the scary part. Now that you have read that and it seems so obvious and your going "Why was I taught to think about it like this?" (See Next Chart)
I was taught to think of analysis this way, I'm sure you have at one point. When the trendline breaks then we should see a retest and more bullish trend / channel. However, after it breaks the trendline, it didn't retest, neither is it really following the "Channel" it created. It's inside the channel but Following the trend as you would like to see, correct? even if we look a little closer on the 4 hour it looks further off
Why is it not doing exactly as we were taught it should? Because we were taught wrong. Price doesn't know if it's following a channel, it doersn't know if it's creating a Triangle, it doesn't know if it's making a flag.
What does it remember? Price levels. Therefore, the way we were taught was wrong and the correct way to look at support and resistance is actually an area within a price range. Why? As mentioned before, it's the institutions ,manipulating the charts to retreat back to an are to where it may have been holding a short and is now looking to break even while cranking up the long earnings. This is all by design. Now look at the chart again with how I just explained it, look for the break of structure, check for the close above the previous swing high close, then see where the price falls to, check to see if it is within a high of a previous swing high candle. If it breaks lower and closes lower, then we have 1 of 2 things
1) Price could have run into a Bearish Breaker (Where you have a High / Low / Higher High and the Low of that formation is a breaker that reject the price and we could see the price start to retrace lower. or
2) Also Look to see if the Break of structure that was broken has a string of balanced bullish candles to form one large Breaker. If so, the price may look like it is lower than what it should, but still within the breraker. i.e. CURRENT PRICE (see chart)
We have a large breaker if you consider the two balanced bullish candles on the far left. If the are balanced, they act as one candle (Meaning their wicks touch, there's no fair value gap) See Chart -
So I see this as still being within the Bullish vain, and we'll have to see if it's going to keep reaching for the break of structure.
Why is it going tio the break of Structure? That is where the Liquidity is sitting by the retail user and the institutions want to take that liquidity for their own pockets. Howevever, We'll Save Liquidity for Next "Smart Money Knowledge Tutorial"
If you have any questions please shoot them below. I'll do my best to answer. If it doesn't make sense to you and you see a flaw in my analysis, a flaw in my reasoning as to why it would be manipulated, please let me know.
Personally, I like having an answer as to why price does what it does, which is why I am behind the Smart Money theory of Manipulation. It makes way more sense than the previous explanation of "It just breaks trend and will continue in that direction." ..... where I feel "This is the area price was before on a short and the institutions need to break even after blowing past it making profit up to that point"
I hope I was able to break this "Smart Money" theory down a bit further and was able to help make sense of thewe things.l This was inspired by a meme I had seen on LinkedIn of the price running up pasty the break of structure and there's a trendline on top of the rear down slope and the price retests and starts moving up. The meme was based off this with a person almost in tears of joy.
My point? Don't see the price action as a result above. Understand it as this
I went to write my explanation that was a different interpretation and by the time I finished I couldn't find the Meme again. So I felt it was my calling to continue writing a major Smart Money Analysis points that many people need to see and hear.
If you enjoy these explainations of Smart Money, please let me know and I'll continue on a series of these with a point behind each one.
Thank you!
- Bodies X Wix
OANDA:GBPUSD
FX:GBPUSD
CAPITALCOM:GBPUSD