Get started

Breakerblock

EUR/USD 1H BREAKER BLOCK TRADE IDEAGreetings traders, I will outline the short I am currently eyeing on EUR/USD. If you pay attention to market structure it should be clear to you that EUR/USD is in a long-term downtrend and therefore higher probability trades will be found shorting this pair - the trend is your friend as they say. If you look at your 4H chart you will see the area of resistance which forced EUR/USD lower this week, this being the 4H bearish order block. Moving onto the 1H chart we see that the market stop hunted the highs at June 22nd, rejecting at the close of the 4H bearish order block (4H -OB), then broke market structure to the downside as indicated by the grey horizontal arrow. Once this price action occurs, the bearish candle before the stop hunt is validated as a bearish breaker block (represented in the chart by the red rectangle and labelled as 1H -BB) and all one would need to do is wait patiently until price returns to the breaker to have a high probability bearish trade. That my friends is exactly what I aim to do - my entry lies a few pipettes below the close of the 1H -BB and my stop loss lies above the high of the breaker block. My targets are at the sellside liquidity pools below the respective lows of June 23rd but I will not marry this idea. Depending on how the market behaves I will take partials or close the trade entirely. Remember traders, anything can happen in the market, the astute trader acknowledges this and seeks to manage risks while waiting patiently on his preferred setups. This is what is needed in order to thrive long-term in this game. Hopefully the market reaches our entry point, if it doesn't, unlucky, we move. If the trade loses, unlucky, we move, but one thing is for certain, we move. May the markets be with you.
Short
by FEDquant
EUR/USD 1H FOMC TRADE ANALYSISHello traders, I will first preface this by saying trading FOMC is not recommended and this is simply a price action exercise. Moving on to the interesting stuff, this is what I see FOMC producing if we get a bullish leg first. Price will likely run up towards the low of the bearish mitigation block seen on the daily chart, this block contains an hourly bearish order block where institutions can add onto their already bearish positions. Volatility will most likely be extremely high with this FOMC announcement, therefore if price does go according to this analysis we could see targets for partials at 1.03578, 1.03341 and if price really gets away the monthly bullish fair value gap could fill all the way to 1.02500. Ofcourse, price could simply immediately fall from its current price at 2pm EST and never give a chance at entry for this trade idea or the stop loss for this trade could be hit, this is trading, anything can happen. P.S This post may feel rushed that's because it is, I wanted to get this published before the FOMC announcement. However, I will be sure to provide a more detailed analysis of my idea once I have more time. May the markets be with you.
Short
by FEDquant
GBP/USD 4H Indicating BearishnessHi traders, it's yet another week and this means fresh opportunities in the majors. Today I bring to your attention the short position I am currently holding on GBP/USD . This pair is currently in a longterm downtrend, therefore the highest probability trades will be found shorting the pair, this frames my bias. On May 4th the market ran just above the high of April 29th on FOMC volatility , the market then returned below this high, breaking market structure in the process, traders using institutional concepts refer to this as the stop hunt. With this framework, once price returned to the breaker which initiated the stop hunt, I entered my short positions. The stop loss of the trade is placed above the 4H breaker block (the block is represented by the red rectangle ) and my final take profit level is placed at the high of the 4H fair value gap. The level represented by the blue line indicates where I will take my first partial if price moves in my favour. I have selected this level since it is an area of mitigation and so price can bounce from there. More details of the overall framework of this trade is explained in further detail in my first publication, which can be seen below this publication in the "related ideas" section. I really appreciate you for reading this post and remember, buy/sell at levels that make sense and let the market do the rest. May the markets be with you.
Short
by FEDquant
2
BTC where is the bottom Part 3Hi Birdies, So many week passes since we did the bottom analysis so here it is. Analysis The Blue block is the order block which has higher chances of hitting because its getting support from 200 Weekly-MA The Gray block which is untested and as per Smart Money concept everything should be mitigated. Also it is getting support from 300 Weekly-MA This Gray block also has higher chances why? Because in covid-2020 BTC bottomed on 300 Weekly-MA the Red Dot Actions BTC will retest 50 Weekly-MA before coming down so 43,000 - 46,500 is the point of short Meanwhile do swing trades and stay safe and blessed
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by BlackBirdTrading
9
Bullish GBP/USD Trade Prediction and AnalysisOn May 9th we see price run below the low of May 6th and then quickly reverses back above the low (the stop hunt). Price then breaks market structure to the upside, as indicated on the chart by the grey arrow pointing to the right. If you read my previous post, then you are aware of what we are looking for as institutional traders once we see this type of price action, if you didn't you can read my previous post via the "Related Ideas" section at the end of this post. Institutional traders directly highlight the bullish candle which initiated the stop hunt beneath the low of May 6th. This is our 1H bullish ICT breaker block and it is represented by the dark blue rectangle on the chart. Notice how price is currently accumulating within the breaker block (the calm before the storm). My entry was taken just below the equal lows of the May 10th 06:00 (UTC-4) candle and the May 9th 10:00 (UTC-4) candle. I placed my entry here because I expected price to stop hunt the sell side liquidity below these equal lows (this stop hunt is shown by the higher white line). Notice how the candle I entered on trades below the white line and then reverses, closing above it. This is the exact same phenomenon which occurred on May 9th and can be seen more clearly on a lower timeframe. My stop loss is placed below the close of the 1H +OB (represented by the light blue rectangle) giving the trade sufficient room to breathe. My target is placed above the current high of the week (represented by the lower green line) at the start of the imbalance formed on May 5th (represented by the upper green line). The trade is framed on the weekly bullish order block equilibrium level. Price doesn't quite reach this level but given the market is currently trading within the 1W +OB the trade is still valid. The market could trade as far as the 1D -BB level represented on the chart by the red line before we see any selling return. Note that GBP/USD is currently in a long-term downtrend and as such this is a counter-trend trade. Price could easily fall beneath the lows of May 9th and continue its downward trend. As traders, all we can do is follow our rules, buy and sell at levels which make sense and let the market handle the rest. If this trade loses I will not be bothered or angry because no system is perfect. A wise man called Mark Douglas once said "the trades we lose are the expenses we pay in order to be available for the trades that win," or something like that haha. The point is there will be losers and winners, as long as your winners pay more than your losing trades take away, you can make it in this business. Thank you for reading and may the markets be with you.
Long
by FEDquant
GBP/USD Bullish Breaker Block Trade AnalysisIn my last publication I discussed the bearish breaker block so I thought it only appropriate to follow up with an analysis of a trade taken using the bullish breaker block. This is a similar setup to the one I last discussed on EUR/USD, except that it was bullish and on the lower 15m timeframe. Do not be fooled however, this trade was taken with a higher timeframe level in mind. This level was the equilibrium of the 1W bullish order block shown in the chart image below. These higher timeframe levels are very reliable since institutions trade off of them. Furthermore, given that GBP/USD has been in a longterm downtrend, I am only interested in taking bullish setups which form at higher timeframe levels i.e levels on the 1M, 1W and the 1D. On April 13th the market runs below the low of April 8th and then quickly returns above the low, back into the range (the stop hunt), but why does this price action occur? In and around this April 8th low lies sell side liquidity in the form of market orders to sell GBP/USD whenever price gets in and around this level. Breakout traders who would have sold the pair once the April 8th low was broken in hope of a breakout and traders who would be taking profits after shorting the pair at higher prices all have market sell orders at this level. Banks need all of this liquidity in order to pair with their huge buy orders, hence why the market "sweeps" the liquidity below the April 8th low and then turns bullish. Once price runs the low and returns into the range we look for the bullish candle which initiated the stop hunt below the low, this is the green candle before the bearish momentum, as seen on the chart. This is our ICT bullish breaker and it is represented by the blue rectangle in the chart. To trade it we wait until price breaks convincingly above its high, personally I wait for a break in market structure (BMS), and then entry is made on a retest of the breaker block's open. Note that the high of the breaker can also be used, however, using the open price allows for a smaller stop loss. Since this breaker was so small I used its high as my entry and my stop loss was placed below the low of the 15m order block. My stop loss was placed here because price should not violate this level if banks are seeking higher prices, if this level is violated then all interest in longs are lost and I accept my loss and remain on the sidelines. Additionally, I didn't place my stop loss directly below the low of the bullish breaker because this is a smaller timeframe and the stop loss would have been too small for my liking. Personally, I like to give my trades the necessary room to breathe, allowing for some movement against my entry. My target was the first buy side liquidity (bsl) area where banks will take profit by selling their longs. I have also outlined a 2nd buy side liquidity area which can be seen clearer on the chart if you scroll to the left. This post in combination with my previous one provides a complete guide on trading ICT breaker blocks. Thanks for reading and may the markets be with you.
Long
by FEDquant
EUR/USD BREAKER BLOCK TRADE ANALYSISHi traders, today I breakdown the price action on EU from an institutional perspective. Recall EU has been in a longterm downtrend for quite a while now. Therefore the highest probability setups will be found when shorting this currency pair. Notice how the high created on April 21st just peaks above the old high of April 14 and then returns into the range. Smart money concept traders call this a stop hunt . It triggers buy side orders, giving institutions the liquidity they need to load on their shorts. Whenever we see this price action, the institutional trader immediately looks for the bearish candle which initiated the move (the red candle before the bullish momentum). This bearish candle is referred to as the ICT breaker block (represented by the lower red rectangle on the chart). There is also a second breaker block (represented by the upper red rectangle) but this one is seen clearer on the 4H chart. When trading the bearish breaker block we wait until price convincingly breaks below the block's low (this occurred on April 22nd) we then short the market whenever price returns to the close of the BB. As shown in the chart, I was able to short EU on a sell limit order at 1.0825 (banks trade at rounded numbers and 5 levels e.g 1.0820, 1.0825, 1.0830, 1.0835 etc. so my entries are always rounded to the nearest 5 or 0 level). My stop loss was placed above the high of the 4H bearish breaker. Why ? well if price violates this level I no longer want to be in the trade as the market would be showing a willingness to go higher. My targets were set at the lows of April 14th and April 19th. Represented on the chart by ssl (sell side liquidity) since banks would use this type of liquidity to take profits, buying back the pair since they shorted it (remember to take profits from a short position you have to buy back the asset). I did not manage to get full targets on this trade given it was Friday and I never hold trades over the weekend. I closed half of the position as price dipped into the ssl and the remaining portion I closed 1 hour before market close on Friday. Thanks for reading and may the markets be with you.
Short
by FEDquant
6
$AVAX - Buy Now or Maybe 115-117 *SMT**SMT = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges , trendlines , channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will move toward Liquidity and Balance. That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas. AVAX has short term break of structure that is bullish where these candles have closed above the previous candles close. We missed the initial great buy, the pullback into the 61.8% level of this chart. However. The current high is a about 1 cent off from another daily high, Creating a false " resistance. I say false because the next time it runs up to that point it will break resistance. It may break it by very little which will cause the liquidity to flood the market (this area of $127.3-$127.4 is where buy stops and sell limits rest) Smart money will punch through that area to flood the market with liquidity chasing the chart down for a short period, and then reverse it back up hitting following stop losses or shortly placed stop losses. Taking the retail traders out. Happens every time. The real question is, where to buy? There are close equal lows on a 15/5 min time frame that could produce a little bit of liquidity underneath. about where it is now near the 119.5 area. The chart could push below that and spark more liquidity but I have a feeling if it did that it would drop down to the consequential encroachment of $118.226 or fill the fair value gap down to $117.16. The furthest I think it could go down would be $115 where there is a Bullish order block resting. and at that point price would reject it and send flying back up. Additionally the only indicator I use, The Williams %R, which is more of a volatility indicator, is at the over sold condition. That doesn't guarantee a biuy right away, but we're more likely to see it possibly be more oversold to the areas I suggested and then turnm around. As I'm typing this, it got under the Bullish breaker creating a bearish breaker. So I'd be betting on $117-$115 Good Luck and Good Trading! :) COINBASE:AVAXUSD BINANCE:AVAXUSDT HUOBI:AVAXUSDT OKEX:AVAXUSDT COINEX:AVAXUSDT FTX:AVAXUSDT POLONIEX:AVAXUSDT BITFINEX:AVAXUSD KRAKEN:AVAXUSD
Long
by BodiesXWix