Retail vs. Smart Money - Truth vs. Manipulation tutorial - *SMT*
SMT= Smart Money Theory. Look at the related idea for a previous tutorial on this. This will be a continuation of that tutorial, how we're taught to trade is manipulation tactics by the institutions, and how to realize whats actually happening.
When I first started, I started to learn how to trade under a an MLM company called iMarkets Live. Some instructors were good and were starting to catch on to what was happening to price action. Others just marked levels,. or tried to use way too many jndicators to find a trade. I ended up losing a lot of money that year because there was no cohesion. I find myself asking "why?" a lot. And if this "Trade the trend is supposed to work so well, why was I getting screwed so bad everytime I went to trade off that trend line. Until I fdinally found the one person who dug deep into the charts and found the truth and I've never seen any other trade get more accurate while trading live.
1. Price is manipulated on every chart. That is their commodity to protect and they'll go down in flames protecting their commodity. Whether that commodity is currency or stocks, there's someone or groups that own enough to control the chart. And that algorithm re-starts everydsay at midnight NY Time. Just before the London session starts
2. The charts above represent what a smart Money Technical Analyst would create for his chart, the second is the retail theory, how your "Taught" to think what tedhnical analysis is supposed to be. Fore example, you would normally out a trendline going down atop the downtrend, and when the price breaks that down trend then you'll told wait for the "Retest" of the price to hit that trend line. But sometimes it doesn't and you've missed your opportunity at a breakaway right? No, you just followed the wrong path on how to read price action. And could've caught that breakaway knowingt that it's not "retesting" the top trendline, instead it's finding the last price that the institutions sold off hard to try and make the retail traders sell as well. Evidently they were successful because the institution then come in and buy it up and a huge discount. And they buy up so much at the start of the run, it breaks the structures previous swing high In fact they probabloy are still holding a short position near that swing high so aftyer it breaks the high and closes above it, it retraces slightly back to the price area of the the previous high. Why? So they can then breakeven on the trade of holding that short while also capitalizing on the long they are taking because of how much of a discount they were able to buy up.
Lets take the current chart for example. When you see the price formation of a low / high / lower low, The last bullish candle in the high formation is now Resistance that will turn Support. I have the Low / High / Lower Low Color Coordinated with it's Breaker Blocks Border or just "Breaker."
As you can see it, each time it breaks the previous structures high (Where I write Break of structure with a line at the top of previous DAILY body that was broke and closed abnove, thje price then slighjtly retreats, back into that High candle's price range, doesn't close below it and then makes another large move to the upside. Its retreating down to a place where they could still be hold a short from the previous quarter (yes, you read that right, they have deep pockets, they can be in the red forever and ity weon't matter, they;'ll manipulate it until they get what's theirs, this is why Larry Williams has 90 day lookbacks in his analysis)
Here's the scary part. Now that you have read that and it seems so obvious and your going "Why was I taught to think about it like this?" (See Next Chart)
I was taught to think of analysis this way, I'm sure you have at one point. When the trendline breaks then we should see a retest and more bullish trend / channel. However, after it breaks the trendline, it didn't retest, neither is it really following the "Channel" it created. It's inside the channel but Following the trend as you would like to see, correct? even if we look a little closer on the 4 hour it looks further off
Why is it not doing exactly as we were taught it should? Because we were taught wrong. Price doesn't know if it's following a channel, it doersn't know if it's creating a Triangle, it doesn't know if it's making a flag.
What does it remember? Price levels. Therefore, the way we were taught was wrong and the correct way to look at support and resistance is actually an area within a price range. Why? As mentioned before, it's the institutions ,manipulating the charts to retreat back to an are to where it may have been holding a short and is now looking to break even while cranking up the long earnings. This is all by design. Now look at the chart again with how I just explained it, look for the break of structure, check for the close above the previous swing high close, then see where the price falls to, check to see if it is within a high of a previous swing high candle. If it breaks lower and closes lower, then we have 1 of 2 things
1) Price could have run into a Bearish Breaker (Where you have a High / Low / Higher High and the Low of that formation is a breaker that reject the price and we could see the price start to retrace lower. or
2) Also Look to see if the Break of structure that was broken has a string of balanced bullish candles to form one large Breaker. If so, the price may look like it is lower than what it should, but still within the breraker. i.e. CURRENT PRICE (see chart)
We have a large breaker if you consider the two balanced bullish candles on the far left. If the are balanced, they act as one candle (Meaning their wicks touch, there's no fair value gap) See Chart -
So I see this as still being within the Bullish vain, and we'll have to see if it's going to keep reaching for the break of structure.
Why is it going tio the break of Structure? That is where the Liquidity is sitting by the retail user and the institutions want to take that liquidity for their own pockets. Howevever, We'll Save Liquidity for Next "Smart Money Knowledge Tutorial"
If you have any questions please shoot them below. I'll do my best to answer. If it doesn't make sense to you and you see a flaw in my analysis, a flaw in my reasoning as to why it would be manipulated, please let me know.
Personally, I like having an answer as to why price does what it does, which is why I am behind the Smart Money theory of Manipulation. It makes way more sense than the previous explanation of "It just breaks trend and will continue in that direction." ..... where I feel "This is the area price was before on a short and the institutions need to break even after blowing past it making profit up to that point"
I hope I was able to break this "Smart Money" theory down a bit further and was able to help make sense of thewe things.l This was inspired by a meme I had seen on LinkedIn of the price running up pasty the break of structure and there's a trendline on top of the rear down slope and the price retests and starts moving up. The meme was based off this with a person almost in tears of joy.
My point? Don't see the price action as a result above. Understand it as this
I went to write my explanation that was a different interpretation and by the time I finished I couldn't find the Meme again. So I felt it was my calling to continue writing a major Smart Money Analysis points that many people need to see and hear.
If you enjoy these explainations of Smart Money, please let me know and I'll continue on a series of these with a point behind each one.
Thank you!
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