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Breakeven

GBPJPY Short With 5-to-1 Reward!A short signal just triggered on the GBPJPY. Our swing trading system will target a 5-to-1 reward for the risk taken with this trade! These sort of setups don't happen too often but when they do they make all the difference between a profitable and money-rolling-in trading month. We will be taking 50% profits at the first target area as illustrated on the chart and then ride the last 50% of the position out, going along with the momentum from the current and all higher timeframes. Updates to follow. Protect your capital and be safe!
Short
by FollowMyForex
1
Clever long entry, but no profit? Don't get shaken out!Do you know the feeling when prices come back after a solid entry? You already had a profit and then somehow prices came back to your entry level. You have moved your stop to breakeven already, so the market pushes you out of your position, only to continue strongly in your direction! Traders naturally do not want to end up with a losing trade after the clever entry had worked. So they might move the stop quickly to breakeven. Now you can relax and watch the trend continue in your direction? Nope. Because very often the trend will continue, but without you. This market behavior is normal in efficient markets, because traders get paid for risk and embracing pain. Let's look at some examples in the chart, four longs and one short. The entries are solid price action signals (circles): Mostly second entries after pullbacks to the EMA or trendline. So when can you move your stop to breakeven? I would suggest you wait for prices to hit your entry price again, before you move the stop to breakeven! In the chart I have shown these pullbacks to your entry level with an arrow. The entry prices are shown with dotted horizontal lines. You could even increase your position at this time. Notice how the trend continues each time! Can you avoid this whole issue of vanishing open profits? Yes, it just depends on your trade management. That means you could scalp for a smaller profit. In this case you would get out quickly, preferably at a predefined target. You lock in profits before before the pullback hurts you! With this strategy you would give up some more profit potential if the trend continues without a pullback. You can also try to get the best of both worlds: Take out a part of your position at your target and try to ride the trend to the moon with a runner! Feel free to comment or ask my anything via PM. Or just follow me ;)
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by FBlocktrader
No free lunch! How BTC pushes traders out..Do you sometimes get pushed out of a profitable position? Do you see the market coming back to your breakeven stop, only to then continue going in "your" direction? The market is doing this constantly, so be aware of this. I will show you two areas where this has happened yesterday. Traders often do get no "free lunch", which means a riskless profit. After the trade entry, you may have a nice profit but then see prices turn against your position. Of course you do not want a profitable position to end up in a loss, so you move your stop to breakeven at some point. Is there a solution to this dilemma? Yes, you can exit a good position at a reasonable target, giving up more profit potential. Or you can leave your stop in its original place and risk taking a (small) loss, but stay in your position which can still become very profitable (again). Yesterday there where two examples of this "breakeven stop hunting": 1. The "breakout" longs In the chart I marked the breakout area (red box), where traders entered long, after prices went above resistance levels at 7550 to 7930. Not a bad decision, prices went up to hit the resistance at 8400, nice profit. Traders who hoped it would go higher still, like 9000, of course stayed in position and may have moved their stops to breakeven. But now BTC turned down and made several legs back to 7550. So now the bulls all have seen their stop hit, and what happens? Right, it goes up 1000 points! 2. The "early" shorts Aggressive short traders may have entered below the resistance at 8400 when they saw the market showing weakness there. In the blue box you can see the short entry levels between 8400 and 8100. After seeing a little profit the market then goes up again to 8400, hitting stop loss or breakeven stops of these shorts. Now of course it goes nearly straight down where everybody thought it was going (7800-7600). After all this there was a nice long entry: The long entry (blue circle) also was created by a short trap below 7800, which looked like this: People saw the short term downtrend and break below support at 7800 (former resist). Then a pullback from 7550 to 7800. When prices turned down below 7700 again, some traders would think bearish and short ("Hey, double top and strong downmove, we are going to 6200 again.") Now the bear trap strikes, presenting a long entry: The market makes a second entry long (second push up from 7600). Stops of shorts are being hit and drive prices up, not looking back to this level (7800)! Now how could you have anticipated something like that? Think about a possible range, because prices are moving above and the below the EMA. Think about the breakeven stops of the longs (see above my point 1). Longs are out and so the market is "free" to go up again. Longs might have to buy in again. Think about another leg up (second big leg) and a new high. As you can see, Bitcoin moved up to the upper side of the range in two equal legs and also made a new high! Feel free to post questions or PM me! Or just follow me ;)
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by FBlocktrader
5
Another bulltrap! Downtrend finished now?BTC has made another bulltrap, only this time at the bottom of the broader range (see also my last post about the first bulltrap). How to avoid this trap and profit from it? When prices hit the lower trendline of the broad range at 10800 the early longs stepped in and it quickly bounced to the former support 11080. This was the first leg up inside the downtrend channel, tuning down again exactly at the breakout level (11080). Now it looks bearish again, right? No, often there will be another equal leg up , because it traps longs in an pushes shorts out. BTC broke the downtrend line and mad a new higher high at 11.150. Now it is time buy, right? No, a classic little trap for the bulls, just go short! Always think about what could the market do to throw people off ... only to continue in the trend direction (down). Now it was time to put pressure on the early longs and go for their stops. So you could justify another short below 11000 when it turned down at the EMA and trendline again . Everyone who got aggressively long at the 10800-900 area had to see their stops being taken out by a fast and strong downmove to the next support level around 10300. Right now prices are likely to bounce back to at least 10500 or even 10800, so to cover (some) of a short position at 10300 is a legit option. The downtrend cannot be declared over, a real reversal will take some time imho...
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by FBlocktrader
4
EURJPY - Double Top - 2618 TradeThere is a 2618 trade on EURJPY with price sitting right at the entry point. This is a countertrend trading setup in which we are looking for the market to move down again to below 120.00. Entry: 122.550 Stop loss: 124.200 Target 1: 120.600 Target 2: 119.680 Our stop is placed above the high of the double top because at that point the probability of the trade being a winner is far outweighed by the potential losses incurred if the market continues moving up. If price moves down to 120.600, I will close half the position for profit and move the stop loss to my entry price. The remaining position will either be stopped out for 0 pips or continue down to the second target. Luke
Short
by Beebags
ENIP Good Reward to Risk Trade BullishTaking a recent swing low and swing high, the risk reward tool can measure potential profit to risk when stopped out and give the reward to risk ratio. Moving the mouse over the shaded area, here we see we can potentially make 375% while risking only 32.14% or in other words the ratio is 11.67, which is excellent. Any time one can use this tool to find a trade that has a ratio of 3 or more, that is great. It makes the odds so that effectively one could take every trade and have it be a coin toss winning half the time for 3x the bet and losing half the time for all the bet, and not care about it because the trades would breakeven with no loss all together. So even the slightest edge where it be due dilligence or trading system or indicator to make those trades even slightly better than a coin toss, then a profit is made. During backtesting trading techniques, if something is found that works 60-70% of the time that's great. Use it with trade setups that are reward to risk ratio over 3. That is a profitable way to make money trading. Whatever trading system is used it doesn't have to be super-perfect, complex, fancy, or better than anyone else, just "good enough" is fine.
ELong
by trademan1