Nice 10w Flat Base, but substantial resistance overheadI like the base that is forming in OLED 165 pivot point. Notice 5 weeks of tight weekly closes - good sign of potential accumulation is happening.
Overall structure looks mid-term bullish to me and my ElliotWave analysis (EW). Although, one shall be mindful of important resistance in 171-180 area, that my cause price to correct to back to 152-141 support zone, before it moves to higher resistance targets (>190).
One important caveat to EW: I use it solely to have an idea about sentiment and overall context to support, but not guide my investing decisions. Price and volume is the key, and only price pays, not the fibonacci resistance or any wave count.
Short-term trading thesis : quick scalp longs could be considered if price breaks above 165 pivot with volume support. 171-179 area could be used as profit taking target to at least to finance the risk.
Breakouttrading
HHRU - Leading job-search company hints that... ... Russian labor market is far from being week.
Due to massive wave's extensions beyond classic fibonacci levels, I am not placing big confidence on my EW count, but solely from market price and volume dynamics there is an argument to be made for price starting new advance to at least prior Sep's highs.
Although, I am not a fan of big late-August weekly reversal candle, creating overhead supplies (potential downside pressure from those buyers who bough the Aug's highs and still holding loses), I do like how price finds support on ascending 10w MA line, that coincides with an ideal area for wave "iv" correction's support zone. So from the mid-term bullish price trend nothing is wrong or to be consider abnormal.
Zooming in to the Daily landscape, we may observe, how the selling pressure subsides and price tries to form the right side of the potential "cup". Volume profile looks like how we want it to be with higher selling volume on the left side of the "cup" and higher buying volume on the right side of it. That potentially illustrate that sellers and their shares are being absorb by the buyers, that are starting to dominate moving the price up.
General thesis : until price holds above 50D MA and in particular above 3050 area, at least one more wave to 4300 or even to 4900-5150 resistance zone could be considered. Short/Mid-Term thesis is wrong bellow 4300 zone.
I did started building position in early October, I will consider holding if the price will not move below -3 and -5% from my average cost. I don't have any issues with stepping aside being stoped out and re-entering at the higher prices, if the price so wishes. All I need is tight risk-management parameters and price cooperating with my thesis in timely manner.
Bullish on GLW.
Here we have GLW on a 15 minute chart. I am looking extremely bullish on this for a Day-trade or a few day swing trade. If we can break out of this upper trendline that I drew on the hourly chart then I feel like we can test the YTD WVAP. We are also in a demand zone that I drew from the daily chart. I will be waiting for us to break this trendline on the 5 minute chart with good volume and above the session VWAP for a good entry.
Lagger that refuses to fall and dreams about greatnessThe world's largest producer of nickel and palladium has had rather lackluster performance in 2023 advancing half as the general Russian Index. And still I cannot get over his accurate price structure that hints that better days are potentially ahead.
I want the price to start forming the right side and later the handle of a cup, and break out above important Sep'22 and Sep'23 high - 17240 area. If price will not be able to hold Sep'23 15730 low, I would want the area above 15250 and 200D line to act as support. Bellow this levels the analysis is to be considered wrong and invalid.
Trading thesis : cow-boy type longs (higher failure risk) may be considered above 16430 area with 3 and 5% stop levels.
Russian Energy Sector play for Q4'23-Q1'24IRAO has very nice wave pattern and proper reaction to every relevant zone of support and resistance measured by fibonacci levels.
It is yet hard to be sure that corrective wave iv has ended and the price is already on its wave to higher resistance zone, but on cannot fully negate this either.
Trading thesis : Until price is bellow Sep's high 4.65, move deeper into support zone 4.24-4 is possible. If price manages, to move decisively above 4.55 and 4.65 with volume confirmation, longs with 3-5-7% staggered stops are strategy that I may utilise, expecting the price to move at least to 4.90-5.25 target resistance zone.
❗ USDJPY: Unimaginable Highs ⚡Crazy right?!😲 Who would have thought we would be back trading at the 1998 highs? Well, here we are.
Sooooo what is the game plan now?
Ideally, we need to figure out a zone to sell from! 👇
So let's figure that out together:
Where is everyone trying to sell from currently?
⚡ The supply zone we are currently trading in.
Where will everyone's stop losses be if they are selling now in this supply zone?
⚡ Above the high.
So where can we expect liquidity and stop loss hunting?
⚡ Above the high.
Great! Now wait for the liquidity grab and begin your search for possible sells once that is complete.
Happy trading folks!! 😀😁😆
MAGN - Setting up for advance in Q4 MAGN had a nice run since Oct22 advancing +157% since the bottom to recent Sep's top. Is the rally over, or do we have at least one more advance potential? My technical thesis supports the latter.
I don't have high confidence in my ElliotWave count on this chart, due to price extensions beyond classical fibonacci levels, but from pure price and volume dynamics, one may suggest that price is in a base building process for at least one more advance to 59-61 area and even above it.
Having a closer look on a Weekly chart, we may notice big green accumulation bars and good weekly bar closes during price advance and relatively low selling volume when price corrects. Notice how price gets supported every time it moves bellow this line - all that are signs of buyers proliferation and accumulation happening.
For the confirmation of my thesis, I need price to stay above previous low (49) and decisively move above 53.5 pivot with volume support. That would put me into the game with tight stop-parameters. If the price will dive bellow 49 area, than my short/mid-term bullish thesis is wrong and price needs more time to digest its advance (if not something major bearish is in the cards for Russian equities).
P.S. orange straight lines are my previous buy (bellow the bars) and sells points (above). Double bar above means complete exit from the position.
RASP - It seems market is counting on dividends...... to be payed.
Although the decision is not yet certain due to redomiciliation of head-company Evraz not yet launched by the management, my ElliotWave projection and price and volume analysis, shows that at least one more move higher to Aug's high and even beyond to 430-460 area could be considered by local short-term swing traders and or even position investors if personal risk-management parameters can tolerate higher single digit volatility.
Thesis : if price holds above 319-307 support zone, and more preferable above 50D MA (red-line on the chart), any potential break-out above 360 pivot may be actionable for longs with tight 3-5% stoploss rules.
2023 True Market Leader - Does it has more potential? VRT has been up more than 200% since late April 2023 bottom, demonstrating key true market leader characteristics in terms of price advance, volume profile and fundamentals.
Look at how well and orderly price was following along the 8 EMA and later 21 EMA since the break-out from a large 195 days base (with two unfilled gaps first in Apr and in later in May).
On the fundamental side, one my notice:
Exceptional relative strength to the SNP500;
Top EPS and IBD Composite Index;
Triple digit growth in analyst estimates for EPS for 23 and double digits for 24;
Jaw-dropping triple digits earnings growth for 3 qrt in a raw;
Continues double digits sales growth;
Improving ROE;
And doubling amount of institutional sponsorship by Sep23;
Management owns 10%
I don't have reliable ElliotWave pattern on VRT, but from the market symmetry concept, I see the next important macro resistance zone at 47-51 area, where 47 is the 100% extension of the move from the bottom of 2020 to the top of 2021.
The history of true market leaders teaches us, that the stocks the doubles and triples have a higher historical odds of doing it again in the next bull-cycle.
It this correction in the indexes is over and the general market has a plan to continue its advance in Q4, my thesis is that VRT shall continue being the top choice for the growth investors and trader.
Trading parameters:
actionable if price breaks out the 39 pivot with volume. Short-mid term long thesis is wrong bellow 36 and fully invalidated bellow 35 areas.
CHMF - One more Russian metalurgic play for Q4-Q1'24 From a both, technical and fundamental perspectives, It looks like Russian metalurgic and extraction complex sets-up for the next wave higher in this Q4, or maybe early next year.
Maybe it is because of rubble current and future potential weakness, or because of the dividend that these companies (CHMF, MAGN, NLMK etc) pay or are planning to, we may observe rather neat base structures being in formation within supportive further advance ElliotWave structure.
My general thesis for Severstal is that the price has bottomed in running flat type corrective structure (running flat are rare in EW and are signs of a bullishness) and now is basing for break-out to new this year highs closer to 1530-1580 zone where I may see next resistance zone.
Please have look how price weekly advance is made on burst up in volume profile and how scares volume is, when price stops and digests its move. Holding above 10w line is crucial for me entertaining longs in any position and we may see how buyers actively support this moving average, not letting the price close bellow this line.
My personal plan, is to start building position above 1400 zone, if price breaks out with volume, having tight risk-management parameters within 3-5% breathing room.
I am perfectly fine staying out on the side line if the price will not cooperate or stops me out and waiting for the next low and time-right risk entry spot.
JBNK - Macro view is not certain, but break-out CaH on a Daily
Weekly macro perspective has a nice diagonal pattern, that respects key support and resistance zones. Although it is hard to definitely state that primary wave 4 has found its bottom in Apr23 due to its relatively short timespan within the macro structure. But as I a low-risk trader I am not concerned with the overall wave pattern, but with what price and volume are doing in particular moment in time.
That being sad, zooming in to the potential weekly handle zone, I really like how the pattern tightens and volatility subsides. 3 week tight closes in September also provides potential evidence for accumulation rather than distribution in place.
Could be actionable above 1420, it the advance will be supported by volume and strength in overall market.
ADAUSDTADAUSDT is in strong bullish trend.
As the market is consistently printing new HHs and HLs.
currently the market is being respected by inclining trendline and has also formed bullish flag pattern which is also being supported by inclining trendline.
These two to gather putting strong bullish confluence for the pair.
What you guys think of this idea?
BluetonaFX - GBPAUD Descending Triangle SHORT IdeaHi Traders!
The bearish price action continues on the GBPAUD 1D chart, and there may be possible opportunities for short entries.
Price Action 📊
The market has had lower highs and lower lows since breaking below the 20 EMA, creating a descending triangle pattern on the chart.
We are looking for further bearish momentum to break and close the trendline support line and continue to the downside.
Fundamental Analysis 📰
The market's outlook on GBP is currently negative due to weak economic data recently released. The outlook on the GBP looks very negative at the moment, and the demand for the currency is very low.
Support 📉
1.88514: TRENDLINE SUPPORT
Resistance 📈
1.92527: TRENDLINE RESISTANCE
Risk ⚠️
No more than 2% of your capital.
Reward 💰
At least 4% of your capital.
Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps.
Trade safely and responsibly.
BluetonaFX
HOW-TO: Navigate the Market with the Darvas Box Strategy
🚀 Introduction to the Darvas Box Strategy
Nicolas Darvas, a dancer by trade, crafted a unique and potent trading strategy during his global tours, famously turning $36,000 into $2 million within an 18-month timeframe during the 1950s. His approach, detailed in his book "How I Made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market," revolves around the concept of the "Darvas Box" - a method that encapsulates price movements and leverages breakout patterns, all while keeping a keen eye on volume.
Darvas sought stocks carving all-time highs and observed their trading ranges, creating a "box" from the consolidation periods. He would buy on the breakout above the box and implement a stop-loss below it, ensuring a meticulous risk management approach.
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Our Darvas Box strategy script is designed to encapsulate the essence of Darvas’s strategy, providing traders with a tool to not only identify and visualize Darvas Boxes but also to backtest the strategy across various assets and timeframes on the TradingView platform.
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While the Darvas Box strategy has its merits, always remember that no strategy is foolproof. Ensure to utilize it as a component of a well-rounded trading plan, incorporating sound risk management and continual learning.
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Stay tuned for the upcoming ideas where we dissect the script’s functionalities and showcase its application across various assets and market conditions!
Disclaimer : Trading involves risk and is not suitable for every investor. The information provided is for educational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider your financial situation carefully before engaging in trading.
Potential quick break outPrice keeps pushing the upper vertex. Seems like an inverse HS is about to break up. The 4.2 - 4.8 zone is a strong resistance, If it pulls back I don't think is going to break that resistance zone mostly likely to try go high again. SL triggers if a daily candles CLOSES below support zone.
BTC Liquidity: Will This Time's Trend Reversal Be Real?The Liquidity Lure:
It's not uncommon for price action to accumulate liquidity near significant support levels or trendlines. Traders often place their buy orders just above these lines, hoping for a quick bounce when prices approach. 🎣
A Second Chance at Reversal:
Now, let's examine the intriguing aspect of this situation. We've seen liquidity left behind in the past, only for the market to disappoint and continue the downtrend. However, this time could be different. 🔄
The Case for Reversal:
Market Sentiment: Cryptocurrency markets are notably influenced by market sentiment. If the sentiment shifts, it can trigger a genuine change in direction. 📈📉
Fundamentals: Keep an eye on fundamental factors that could drive demand for cryptocurrencies. News of adoption, institutional involvement, or regulatory clarity can play a pivotal role. 🏦💼
Technical Indicators: Look for confirmation from technical indicators such as higher lows, bullish candlestick patterns, or increased trading volume. 📊📈
Trading Strategy:
Caution: While the signs may be encouraging, remain cautious. Wait for confirmation of the trend reversal before committing significant capital. 🚦
Risk Management: Always use risk management techniques, like setting stop-loss orders, to protect your investments. ⚖️
Diversification: Consider diversifying your portfolio to spread risk across different assets. 🌐
Conclusion:
The cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility and unpredictability. While the presence of liquidity below a downtrend line offers hope, it doesn't guarantee a trend reversal. It's crucial to combine technical analysis, market sentiment, and sound risk management in your trading strategy. And remember, even in the world of crypto, patience can often be the key to success. 🗝️
Will this time be different? Only time will tell, but one thing's for sure – it's a market that continually keeps us on our toes. 🌟
Trade with our closed community !
❗️Get my 3 crypto trading indicators for FREE! Link below🔑
BluetonaFX - USDJPY Price Channel Breakout SHORT IdeaHi Traders!
USDJPY looks to have exhausted near the psychological 150.00 level, and there is a possibility of a large pullback to the long-term bullish trend we have had over the past few months.
Price Action 📊
There has been a momentum break below the ascending price channel and the 20 EMA.
We are looking for further momentum to take the market further below.
Fundamental Analysis 📰
Weaker than expected USD GDP figures have slowed down the US dollar's strong momentum.
Support 📉
148.460: PREVIOUS SWING HIGH
Resistance 📈
149.506: DAILY HIGH
Risk ⚠️
No more than 2% of your capital.
Reward 💰
At least 4% of your capital.
Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps.
Trade safely and responsibly.
BluetonaFX
BluetonaFX - SILVER Triangle Break SHORT IdeaHi Traders!
SILVER is approaching the trendline support of its symmetrical triangle and there is a possibility of a breakout to the downside.
Price Action 📊
There was a momentum break and close below the 20 EMA along with market swings showing lower highs and lower lows.
We are looking for a break and close below the trendline support.
Fundamental Analysis 📰
The market's demand for Silver is currently low due to current high demand for the US dollar.
Support 📉
22.232: TRENDLINE SUPPORT
Resistance 📈
22.868: PREVIOUS DAY'S HIGH
Risk ⚠️
No more than 2% of your capital.
Reward 💰
At least 4% of your capital.
Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps.
Trade safely and responsibly.
BluetonaFX
Gold (XAUUSD) -> Nobody Is WatchingMy name is Philip, I am a German swing-trader with 4+ years of trading experience and I only trade stocks , crypto , options and indices 🖥️
I only focus on the higher timeframes because this allows me to massively capitalize on the major market swings and cycles without getting caught up in the short term noise.
This is how you build real long term wealth!
In today's anaylsis I want to take a look at the bigger picture on Gold.
Looking at the higher timeframe on Gold you can see that last November Gold perfectly retested previous resistance in confluence with the 50% fibonacci retracement level.
At the moment Gold is trading in a massive bullish continuation flag and is once again rejecting resistance - however after a short term drop I am looking for an agressive bullish breakout.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I know that this is a quite simple trading approach but over the past 4 years I've realized that simplicity and consistency are much more important than any trading strategy.
Keep the long term vision🫡
ZEN BREAKOUT💥💥#ZEN Analysis : Breakout 💸💸
🔮#ZEN was testing a crucial key level at $8.00 and following a symmetrical triangle. Now we can see a perfect breakout here in #ZEN. It indicates the start of an upward trend. 💲💲
👀Current Price: $8.11
🚀 Target Price: $11.70
⚡️What to do ?
👀 There are some resistance at 9.60 and 11.73. Keep an eye on #ZEN price action and volume. We can trade according to the chart and make some profits. Stay tuned for further analysis and stay updated with market sentiments and news.⚡️⚡️
🏷Remember, the crypto market is dynamic in nature and changes rapidly, so always use stop loss and take proper knowledge before investments.
#ZEN #Cryptocurrency #Breakout #TechnicalAnalysis #DYOR
How to fade breakouts professionally from my 30 years experienceIn this detailed education video i show how i mainly make a living as a protrader. This is from fading breakouts of chart patterns. I show three examples of this in the past week from the nasdaq and talk about confirmation bias. I also show what its like drawing lines and patterns daily, win/ loss ratios as well as some thoughts of where the nasdaq might go in the next few weeks.