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Breakouttrading

New bull market in Gold As per my Elliot Wave* analysis, Octobers low may mark the the mid-term bottom for gold and price has started to work on building the right hand side of the cup. As long as 168 holds, I would expect the price to move towards next important resistance area 194-200 area. Ideally build a hand of the cup after reaching that level and break-out above 194 towards important next targets: 212-224-230. Also notice the "Mona Lisa" of cup-and-handle pattern in GLD on a monthly time-scale The symmetry and volume dynamics, that subsides in the handle area, is almost picture perfect. Trading thesis : I will be looking for price to digest its rally from Oct lows, preferably around 177-180 area, creating a cheat pivot and relatively low risk entry point. This entry, if materializes, may create a good long-term opportunity to build position for the coming 2024 and potentially beyond. * Important caveat to EW: I use it solely to have a subjective idea about sentiment and overall structural context to support, but not guide, my investing decisions. Price and volume is the key, and only price pays, not the fibonacci resistance or any wave count.
AMEX:GLDLong
by artemfedorov
Set-up is there for one more move up in AFKS Russian large Investment company AFK Systems has nice technical potential for at least one more bullish leg up towards 19-21 region. Price could have ended its correction started in Aug'23 and could be forming the bottom of the new cup. In order to confirm this scenario, we need price to first hold its Sep's low at 16.60 and move decisively above its 50D MA, breaking out above 17.80 low cheat pivot. Not positioned in this name as for now, but will be looking to start entering if price moves closer to 17.80, consolidates for a day or two and breaks out above highs of 9th Oct.
RUS:AFKSLong
by artemfedorov
1
MoscowExchange is prone to take a rest soonRecord new account openings on MoscowExchange during 2023, has played its role in almost 90% stock advance since the year start. The stock and volume dynamics show strong uptrend with good signs of accumulation on a weekly chart. My chart analysis shows, that price has reached an important resistance zone of its strongest uptrend wave 3 at around 182 area and is now to be expected to re-base again, correcting ideally to its mid-term area of support: 155-166 area. We may also notice that price looks extended from its 10w MA, that is a historical cautious sign for continuation of short and mid-term advance. We may also notice, that in Mar23 once price went above 50D MA by 18% that led to 2 months of correction. Despite my bearish leaning short-term, my analysis still has room for price to extend to higher resistance targets to 195-200 area as an alt. wave 3 target. Trading thesis : if price breaks bellow 21ema, preferably with volume pick-up, I would expect a move down to 166-155 area. If price decides to instead move above 185, I expect it to find resistance in 195-200.
RUS:MOEXShort
by artemfedorov
Do Li's electric vehicles are charged enough for Q4? One of my favourite ideas in electrical vehicle space - China's Li. Mid-term price structure still looks bullish to my eyes, despite Sep's sell-off bellow 50D MA. While the price is still under it (what is a "no-go" rule for any substantial long trades for me), I do like how price managed to find foothold slightly crossing below the ideal support zone. In the ideal world, I would argue that price is trying to form the bottom of what will later form into the lower are of a cup. That means that the price needs to hold above 33 area and start building the right side and later the handle of the reliable cup-and-handle pattern. In the short-term, I want the price to reclaim 21ema and fill the gap-down, happened late September. If the price follows through, we will see the key moving averages ordering into the right bullish sequence: 8ema/21ema/50ma what will probably provide us with the MA's crossover and at least several days tight cheat area with low risk-entry point. The fundamental side of Li's story makes almost the perfect case for the next up-cycle's true market leader: top-level triple digits earnings and sales growth last quarter, consistent double digits 3 quarters sales growth; super high annual earnings estimates. I would place a bet, that if price manages to move above 50D MA, institutional sponsorship will be increasing providing the fuel for the suggested bullish scenario.
NASDAQ:LILong
by artemfedorov
POSI - Russian leader in cybersecurity The actuality of cybersecurity for Russia in the absence of global brands becomes even sharper and provides unique opportunities for the best local provider to capture growing market share. Stock price technical perspective still illustrates strong up-trend, with some caution signals to be mindful about if one decides to trade it. On a weekly time-frame, price is solidly supported above the 10w MA, that is crucial for me to consider trading the upside of any stock. Although, I cautious about important fibonacci resistance levels at 2500 area. I price will not be able to follow-through its recent break-out attempt from 5 weeks flat base and move above 2500 zone, than I have hard times considering wave 4 finished, and will expect more deep and long correction (probably to 2070-1850 support zone). That being sad, in my trading, I try not to forecast, but to follow the price and volume dynamics. And when the set-up is favourable and I have positive traction in my personal portfolio, I will take it without any hesitation. Thesis : Above 2415 line and I expect price to follow-through and move towards 2600-2800 resistance zone. Below this line and I am out, and wait either for more tight entry set-up or stepping on the sidelines at all.
RUS:POSILong
by artemfedorov
At least one more bullish leg up potential for AMZN in Q4'23 While my long-term macro Elliot wave count* on AMZN is not certain, but if the price manages to hold above 123, I am counting on at least one move up towards 151-160 resistance area in Q4 this year. In the short-term, 50D MA region will serve as an important resistance zone, and point of interest for big institutional money. We either see the price getting institutional support in this area, or we may be left with substantial selling pressure. That is why definitive move above 50D MA, with volume pick-up, would be an important marker for confirmation of the higher potential, mentioned above. This region also coincides with Sep's gap-down, that was not yet filled with any followed-up upward bounce. Breaking below 123 area, either in the short-term, or during the next correction higher in the wave structure, would be the turning point for me, to consider something major bearish is potentially in the cards. Trading thesis: if price breaks out above yesterday's highs with volume support, longs could be initiated with 3 and 5% stop losses. * One important caveat to EW: I use it solely to have a subjective idea about sentiment and overall context to support, but not guide, my investing decisions. Price and volume is the key, and only price pays, not the fibonacci resistance or any wave count.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by artemfedorov
2
Nice 10w Flat Base, but substantial resistance overheadI like the base that is forming in OLED 165 pivot point. Notice 5 weeks of tight weekly closes - good sign of potential accumulation is happening. Overall structure looks mid-term bullish to me and my ElliotWave analysis (EW). Although, one shall be mindful of important resistance in 171-180 area, that my cause price to correct to back to 152-141 support zone, before it moves to higher resistance targets (>190). One important caveat to EW: I use it solely to have an idea about sentiment and overall context to support, but not guide my investing decisions. Price and volume is the key, and only price pays, not the fibonacci resistance or any wave count. Short-term trading thesis : quick scalp longs could be considered if price breaks above 165 pivot with volume support. 171-179 area could be used as profit taking target to at least to finance the risk.
NASDAQ:OLEDLong
by artemfedorov
HHRU - Leading job-search company hints that... ... Russian labor market is far from being week. Due to massive wave's extensions beyond classic fibonacci levels, I am not placing big confidence on my EW count, but solely from market price and volume dynamics there is an argument to be made for price starting new advance to at least prior Sep's highs. Although, I am not a fan of big late-August weekly reversal candle, creating overhead supplies (potential downside pressure from those buyers who bough the Aug's highs and still holding loses), I do like how price finds support on ascending 10w MA line, that coincides with an ideal area for wave "iv" correction's support zone. So from the mid-term bullish price trend nothing is wrong or to be consider abnormal. Zooming in to the Daily landscape, we may observe, how the selling pressure subsides and price tries to form the right side of the potential "cup". Volume profile looks like how we want it to be with higher selling volume on the left side of the "cup" and higher buying volume on the right side of it. That potentially illustrate that sellers and their shares are being absorb by the buyers, that are starting to dominate moving the price up. General thesis : until price holds above 50D MA and in particular above 3050 area, at least one more wave to 4300 or even to 4900-5150 resistance zone could be considered. Short/Mid-Term thesis is wrong bellow 4300 zone. I did started building position in early October, I will consider holding if the price will not move below -3 and -5% from my average cost. I don't have any issues with stepping aside being stoped out and re-entering at the higher prices, if the price so wishes. All I need is tight risk-management parameters and price cooperating with my thesis in timely manner.
HLong
by artemfedorov
Lagger that refuses to fall and dreams about greatnessThe world's largest producer of nickel and palladium has had rather lackluster performance in 2023 advancing half as the general Russian Index. And still I cannot get over his accurate price structure that hints that better days are potentially ahead. I want the price to start forming the right side and later the handle of a cup, and break out above important Sep'22 and Sep'23 high - 17240 area. If price will not be able to hold Sep'23 15730 low, I would want the area above 15250 and 200D line to act as support. Bellow this levels the analysis is to be considered wrong and invalid. Trading thesis : cow-boy type longs (higher failure risk) may be considered above 16430 area with 3 and 5% stop levels.
RUS:GMKNLong
by artemfedorov
Russian Energy Sector play for Q4'23-Q1'24IRAO has very nice wave pattern and proper reaction to every relevant zone of support and resistance measured by fibonacci levels. It is yet hard to be sure that corrective wave iv has ended and the price is already on its wave to higher resistance zone, but on cannot fully negate this either. Trading thesis : Until price is bellow Sep's high 4.65, move deeper into support zone 4.24-4 is possible. If price manages, to move decisively above 4.55 and 4.65 with volume confirmation, longs with 3-5-7% staggered stops are strategy that I may utilise, expecting the price to move at least to 4.90-5.25 target resistance zone.
RUS:IRAOLong
by artemfedorov
❗ USDJPY: Unimaginable Highs ⚡Crazy right?!😲 Who would have thought we would be back trading at the 1998 highs? Well, here we are. Sooooo what is the game plan now? Ideally, we need to figure out a zone to sell from! 👇 So let's figure that out together: Where is everyone trying to sell from currently? ⚡ The supply zone we are currently trading in. Where will everyone's stop losses be if they are selling now in this supply zone? ⚡ Above the high. So where can we expect liquidity and stop loss hunting? ⚡ Above the high. Great! Now wait for the liquidity grab and begin your search for possible sells once that is complete. Happy trading folks!! 😀😁😆
Short
by AlkalineFX
15
MAGN - Setting up for advance in Q4 MAGN had a nice run since Oct22 advancing +157% since the bottom to recent Sep's top. Is the rally over, or do we have at least one more advance potential? My technical thesis supports the latter. I don't have high confidence in my ElliotWave count on this chart, due to price extensions beyond classical fibonacci levels, but from pure price and volume dynamics, one may suggest that price is in a base building process for at least one more advance to 59-61 area and even above it. Having a closer look on a Weekly chart, we may notice big green accumulation bars and good weekly bar closes during price advance and relatively low selling volume when price corrects. Notice how price gets supported every time it moves bellow this line - all that are signs of buyers proliferation and accumulation happening. For the confirmation of my thesis, I need price to stay above previous low (49) and decisively move above 53.5 pivot with volume support. That would put me into the game with tight stop-parameters. If the price will dive bellow 49 area, than my short/mid-term bullish thesis is wrong and price needs more time to digest its advance (if not something major bearish is in the cards for Russian equities). P.S. orange straight lines are my previous buy (bellow the bars) and sells points (above). Double bar above means complete exit from the position.
RUS:MAGNLong
by artemfedorov