1. *Id say a 6/10 dovish reaction by markets, GBP falling across the board & FTSE gaining. Carney seems contempt with a lower GBP and is happy to continue talking the currency lower in an attempt to use the exchange rate mechanism as a leading instrument to buoy UK economic stability (GDP, CPI, Unemp) against the potential Brexit backdrop; thus I continue my view...
Trading for this week: 1. My plan for next week focuses on point "3." from the previous post - I am waiting for risk-on or risk-off assets to confirm investor conviction by using USDJPY as a barometer for net risk sentiment. Despite the market uncertainty and high volatility UJ last week traded within a 200pip range for the between 101.3-103.3. Therefore, I...
Expectations vs Reality: 1. Following the referendum decision on Friday, as expected GBP sold off 10%+, the FTSE plummeted in a similar fashion and global risk assets sold off across the board, but FTSE/ Risk recovered a significant amount of those losses into Fridays close and for the rest of the next week.. So what happened to BREXIT? - Such behaviour would...
2016, the year of the Risk-Off Asset Historically Gold has performed +10-20% in the 6 months into US Presidential Election years AND also by longing Gold on this pull-back it opens up the opportunity to benefit from the potential tail risk that the UK votes to "Brexit" in which Gold will likely trade through $1400. Gold is one of my favourite plays for 2016 for...
Now that the Brexit risk has been realised the mentioned pairs above will share some correlation this week as the market changes between risk-on and risk-off as MANY on the events continually drive the sentiment shifts. My Plan & Expectations USDJPY 1. My conviction for UJ is long 8/10. -UJ traded to lows of 98.9 in the midst of the brexit hype, as the...
So after the market reached those fresh highs past 1.1400 handle the polls were still in favor of Bremain. Thankfully I decided to abstain from referendum craziness so I didn't take the buy order as I would've in any other day of the week. Now we have breached lower levels we can have a bit more confirmation on the direction of the markets. I'm looking for...
The market did cool down, spreads are good and we have the bext chance for a good trade
...very high numerological potential for a BREXIT! To destroy the EU with the EURO is part of the plan to the NWO. The date today (23rd of June 2016) and the time 23:00 for BREXIT or BREMAIN is important. The number 23 is a occult number for the elite and has a numeroligic background. So the possibility for a BREXIT is higher than the official Poll numbers for...
If Brexit happens, is Parity possible?... If Bremain, 1.50 possible tomorrow and 1.60 next week. If Brexit, first targets are around 1.34. Beware of the spreads and possible Central Banks interventions! Good luck!
YouGov on the day poll: Remain 52%, Leave 48% yougov.co.uk
Bremain comes true. GBP USD hast very high at the moment. Bookmakers Brexit Quotes www.oddschecker.com
In the previous post we have used the Price Action data from the Scottish UK Referendum for GBPUSD for the 3-days on and around the vote so the 17th, 18th (vote day) and 19th (result day) of September 2014 as a gauge to forecast whats in store for Price action on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday this week (the parallel days for both of the referendums). ...
UK EU Referendum (Brexit) vs Scottish UK Referendum Price Action Forecast: - We will use the difference in ATR and volatility between the 3-day run up into UK EU Referendum (UER) and the Scottish UK Referendum (SUR) in order to forecast what we expect price action to show on the 22nd, 23rd and 24th. 2014 SUR 3-DAY EVENT (17,18.19) 1. 1-Period ATR for the...
I don't trade news, but this is an event whose outcome I think is now relatively certain (Bremain) such that it might be worthwhile to take a small position to take advantage of the relief rally that will occur if that is the result. Naturally, I could be totally wrong on the result, but the probability of a Bremain vote is currently higher than a Brexit vote, if...
We still buying dips . Holding short from 1313s/1302s and hunting.... GL! Instructions on map (above) - keep SL tight (no more than 1%)
I am staying well out of any trades this week as i am expecting the market to be extremely volatile with the anticipation of the EU referendum. However this is just an idea that it appears traders are taking the position that they expect the UK to stay in the EU as the Euro declines as the GBP grows in strength. Stochastic/MACD/RSI all show a strong correlation...
Indicators to check BEFORE GBP Shorting for confirmation I also suggest using two other key pieces of information BEFORE shorting GBP. 1. Use USDJPY as a measure of market risk appetite and stability - As you can see below UJ has traded with a tight 38pip range vs GBP$ at 180pips. Therefore we can use UJ as a measure of stability and risk appetite: 1)...
The UK EU Referendum has presented significant discounted buying opportunities, with many blue chip names anywhere from 5-15% down in the last 2wks. The uncertainty regarding the UK position in the European Union has pushed investors to see Gold, Treasuries and JPY, whilst fleeing risk equities. - IMO the next week or two will form a trend of oscillating...