Brent - Oil waiting for new tensions?!Brent oil is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H time frame and is moving in its upward channel. At the bottom of the rising channel, which is also at the intersection with the demand zone, we will look for oil buying positions.
If the upward trend continues, it is possible to look for oil selling positions within the specified supply zone.
Israel plans to use U.S. military aid funds for purchasing new fighter jets. According to the Times of Israel, the United States has deployed additional F-15E fighters to the Middle East, especially to Jordan, due to a possible Iranian attack on Israel.
Iranian leaders have warned of a “punitive” attack in response to previous Israeli assaults. Additionally, reports indicate that the United States has sent several B-52 bombers and THAAD missile defense systems to the region.
Prolonged tensions in the Middle East could create significant risks for energy prices. Other upward risks include lower-than-expected North American oil production, increased competition for liquefied natural gas shipments, and higher-than-anticipated coal and natural gas consumption in Asia. Conversely, notable downward risks for energy prices also exist, particularly if the OPEC+ supply cuts end sooner than expected. This could lead to an oversupply of oil as well as slower-than-anticipated economic growth, including in China.
The World Bank, maintaining a bearish outlook on the energy sector, forecasts a 6% decline in oil prices in 2025 and a 2% decline in 2026. Although geopolitical uncertainties may generate market volatility, analysts clearly foresee downside risks for oil.
Citibank has projected that a second term for Donald Trump could exert downward pressure on oil prices through 2025, forecasting Brent crude to average $60 per barrel. Trump’s policies might reduce OPEC+ production and ease geopolitical tensions. These policies may also have mixed effects on global economic growth, potentially slowing global oil demand growth. However, the immediate impact on physical oil markets is expected to be limited.
Brent
Three days after elections and one after FED cutStarting with #VIX the value decreased a lot after elections showing the decrease in investors fear
With less fear we can follow the #SPX #DX1! #BTC1! which strongly rise their value.
Commodites in general seems to had loss some points with Dollar strength, in this chart we can watch #GC1! and #BZ1! as benchmark
In the case of Brent we can see a double top even with line chart.
#US10Y decreased after 25bp cut nevertheless with Trump election US will probably activate more worldwide tariffs and this can lead to an increase in prices, and so the next couple months CPI will be a important measure to look at US economy in the future. So even it's decreasing and bonds are inversly to prices, I should keep an eye on it
Oil prices may fall more than expected.I think Brent crude oil prices will continue to fall.
In the coming years, renewable energy could steadily reduce demand for Brent crude oil.
* What i share here is not an investment advice. Please do your own research before investing in any asset.
* Never take my personal opinions as investment advice, you may lose all your money.
Can oil prices hit 100 usd/bbl in 2025?🔸Based on technicals it's entirely possible. Looking at the daily price
chart of Brent Oil we can spot a sequence of lower lows having said
that prices are also compressing in a falling wedge price structure which
could indicate a swift reversal off the lows near 65 USD/bbl.
🔸Potential price targets for Brent at 100/110 USD bbl if the tensions
escalate further in 2025, which is almost guaranteed at this stage.
🔸The possibility of an Israel-Iran conflict has escalated tensions in the Middle East, which is putting upward pressure on oil prices. Although Israel has not yet officially declared war on Iran, there is ongoing speculation about Israeli strikes on Iran's oil infrastructure in response to missile attacks and Iran's support for militant groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. Such actions could significantly disrupt the global oil market.
🔸If Israel were to target major Iranian oil facilities, such as Kharg Island, which handles the majority of Iran's oil exports, global oil prices could spike dramatically. Analysts suggest prices could exceed $100 per barrel and might even reach as high as $200 if the conflict spreads to other regional oil producers or if key shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted. This scenario would impact not only fuel prices but also inflation globally, reviving economic fears similar to those seen during the 1970s oil crisis
🔸At the moment, oil prices have already seen increases due to the broader conflict, but the market has remained relatively stable thanks to diversified supplies from the U.S. and other non-Middle Eastern producers
🔸However, if the situation deteriorates further, particularly with attacks on critical energy infrastructure, more significant price hikes are likely.
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RIG (Transocean) – Potential Reversal?
Technical Overview
• Current Trend: RIG has been in a clear downtrend since September 2023, as confirmed by Dr. Elder’s Triple Screen framework. However, recent technical signals suggest the trend is losing steam.
• Weekly Timeframe:
The MACD histogram is showing a bullish divergence, indicating that the momentum behind the price decline is weakening.
Additionally, a falling wedge pattern has emerged on both the weekly and monthly charts—typically a reversal signal with strong bullish implications.
Entry Strategy and Price Action Expectations
• Daily Timeframe:
We are closely monitoring the $3.90 level. If the price holds above this level, it is likely to form a double bottom on the daily chart. A breakout above the wedge could trigger significant upside momentum.
Historically, similar corrections after bullish divergences on the weekly chart have produced gains of up to 90%.
Market Context and Macro Factors
Oil Market Influence: The price action in RIG correlates heavily with the broader oil market. With oil supply tightening due to OPEC+ cuts and geopolitical tensions (e.g., the Middle East conflict), the oil market could experience an upward cycle. These macro tailwinds may accelerate RIG’s recovery if confirmed by technical breakouts.
Conclusi on
If the $3.90 support level holds, and the double bottom forms as expected, RIG has the potential to align with the broader bullish trend on the weekly chart. With a falling wedge pattern and bullish divergence supporting the reversal narrative, this could mark the beginning of a new uptrend.
Potential Trade Setup:
Entry: Above $4.00 for confirmation of the breakout.
Target: 90%+ upside potential based on historical patterns.
Stop Loss: Below $3.80 to minimize risk. This setup offers a high-probability trade, provided the technical signals align with favorable market conditions. Monitor daily for confirmation and adjust your risk accordingly.
NYSE:RIG
Disclaimer: This analysis reflects my personal opinion and is provided for informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice or an investment recommendation.
Will the World's Most Vital Artery Become Its Achilles' Heel?In the intricate dance of global energy markets, few factors wield as much influence as the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway, often overlooked in daily discourse, stands as a silent titan, controlling the ebb and flow of 21% of the world's daily oil consumption. As geopolitical tensions simmer in the Middle East, the stability of this crucial chokepoint hangs in delicate balance, challenging us to confront a stark reality: how vulnerable is our global economy to disruptions in this single maritime passage?
The potential for conflict to spill over into the Strait of Hormuz presents a fascinating study in risk assessment and market psychology. Despite the looming threat of supply disruptions that could send oil prices soaring to unprecedented heights—some analysts project as high as $350 per barrel—the market remains surprisingly sanguine. This dichotomy between potential catastrophe and current calm invites us to explore the complex interplay of factors that shape oil prices, from geopolitical maneuvering to the subtle influence of alternative supply routes.
As we stand at this crossroads of energy security and global trade, we are challenged to think critically about the future of oil markets and international relations. The Strait of Hormuz serves not just as a geographical feature, but as a mirror reflecting our world's intricate dependencies and the delicate balance of power that underpins global stability. In contemplating its significance, we are invited to look beyond the immediate concerns of oil prices and consider broader questions of energy resilience, diplomatic strategy, and the evolving landscape of international trade in an increasingly uncertain world.
Brent Oil – Breakout and Targeting the Next ResistanceI'm watching Brent oil closely as we're approaching a key resistance level. If we break through this resistance, my target will be the next resistance level. At that point, there could be a potential short opportunity or it may be a good idea to reduce long positions to lock in profits.
Strategy: I'll be monitoring for a confirmed breakout and will adjust my position based on price action at the next resistance.
UKOIL "BRENT" Market Money Heist Plan on Bullish Side.Hola! My Dear Robbers / Money Makers & Losers, 🤑 💰
This is our master plan to Heist UKOIL "BRENT" Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal / Trap at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich.
Entry : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Swing Low
Stop Loss 🛑 : Recent Swing Low using 2H timeframe
Attention for Scalpers : If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money 💰.
Warning : Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️ comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update.
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target.
Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style.
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Brent crude: Buying into the stormAny trade you take in oil right now is probably going to make you a quick win or loss .
Oil has easily been the most volatile market this week - it's pretty obvious why
1) Hurricanes in the US disrupting supply
2) War in the Middle East
For us, the trend is higher since breaking through $76 / bbl. And the latest fractal forming a higher low helped confirm this idea.
This uptrend has not been properly established with 2 higher highs, which offers bigger possible upside but also a greater chance of never getting going.
You can see the price is trapped between the 50 SMA and 200 SMA.
We see a chance for a favourable 2:1 risk reward by trading the pullback from yesterday's bullish engulfing candlestick up to this week's high around 81.50.
What do you think? Please share your ideas in a comment
Brent Oil - Potential Upside After Resistance BreakoutBrent is currently testing a key resistance level. If we see a breakout above this resistance, there is a high chance the price will continue upward towards the next target resistance level. It’s important to watch for confirmation signals, such as a close above the resistance or increasing volume, to validate this bullish scenario.
BRENT CRUDE OIL may drop in price by as much as -65%Today we would like to share my opinion on the possible price of Brent Crude Oil in the coming years, analyzing the chart on a monthly timeframe
The war in Ukraine is not just a war between the two countries, it is a geopolitical problem that will affect all world economies.
The world's economies have not yet recovered from the Covid-19, and here is another blow.
Expensive energy will stop buying due to the excessive cost of production of "everything", the purchasing power of the population falls. Declining demand for oil will bring down the price.
The fall in the price of Brent oil -25% in the coming months in the area of $78-80 per barrel will be just the beginning.
But looking at the schedule, is striking the price zone of $36-46 to be a strong mirror level and this is -65% of the current price
Maybe this is a fair price for oil, from where a total restart of the world economy can take place by purchasing cheap energy resources.
Perhaps this is symbolic, but for the first time on the historical price chart of Brent, the zone of $36-46 was established as important when there were powerful geopolitical world changes: 1979-1980 - the Islamic Revolution and 1990-1991 - the collapse of the USSR
Brent crude oil looks into the abyss: first $36 then $27 Brent oil is in the giant range of $16 and $150
The price is in the decline within the red large leg 2 down.
It consists of 2 white smaller legs.
Leg ii is in the progress after a small consolidation (blue).
The first downward target is at the bottom of red large leg 1 at $36
The next target is located at the equal distance of red large leg 1 in second leg at $27
Saudi Arabia gave up oil target of $100 to increase output.
Cooling Chinese economy is also a bearish factor.
Mid-Week Market Report: Post-FOMC Results, Forecast UPDATES!Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024
This video will cover the updates to the Weekly Forecasts videos posted last Saturday.
With the Fed deciding to cut the rates 50 basis points, there was some volatility injected into the markets, resulting our targets being achieve!
Also, we will forecast the SP500, NAS100, DJI, GOLD, SILVER, US & uk OIL markets! So watxh until the end of the video!
If you like the video, leave a like/boost. I appreciate your comments, as well. I respond to all of my viewers.
May profits be upon you.
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
UK OIL / Brent Crude Oil Bullish Money Heist Plan on Long SideHola ola My Dear,
Robbers / Money Makers & Losers,
This is our master plan to Heist (UK OIL / Brent Crude Oil) based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal / Trap at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich.
Attention for Scalpers : If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money.
Note: If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money.
Entry : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Swing Low
Stop Loss : Recent Swing Low using 2H timeframe
Warning : Fundamental Analysis comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update.
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target.
Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style.
Stay tuned with me and see you again with another Heist Plan.....
Crude OIL $UKOIL Classic patternI've seen this pattern many times over the last 5 years on different instruments, and its working out to over 50%
The essence of this pattern is a classic triangle with horizontal support, most of the participants realize that we will break down, but not everyone believes that we will take liquidity off the top before going down.
An instrument like oil is quite trivial and it can fall without taking liquidity off the top.
But I want to share a few examples of my theory working out, where the upper resistance line is broken before the drop-down
Best regards EXCAVO
Brent Crude Oil Price Hits Yearly LowBrent Crude Oil Price Hits Yearly Low
Analyzing the oil market on the XBR/USD chart from August 26, when Brent crude was trading around $79 per barrel, we observed the following:
→ The price was forming a descending channel (shown in red) and approaching its upper boundary, which could act as resistance.
→ We identified a key support level (shown in yellow).
→ We suggested that the bulls would need to prove their determination when facing a block of resistance around the $80 level.
Since then, Brent crude oil has:
→ Reversed downward, failing to hold above the $80 level, and continued to decline within the red channel.
→ Accelerated its decline, breaking through the key support around the $75 level.
Bearish sentiment was fueled by OPEC+ plans to increase oil production, signaling a shift away from production cuts aimed at maintaining higher prices.
Could Brent Crude Oil Continue to Decline?
From a technical analysis perspective, the XBR/USD chart today indicates that supply forces are asserting their dominance, as the price has fallen into the lower half of the red channel, with the RSI indicator entering oversold territory.
After a roughly 10% decline in Brent crude oil prices since last Monday, the prospect of an interim upward correction seems plausible.
However, given the above, a significant resistance block appears to be around the $74.50 area, where:
→ The median line of the red channel is located.
→ The yellow line, which served as support for several months, is likely to act as resistance after being breached.
In the worst-case scenario, Brent crude oil could drop to the lower boundary of the channel, approaching the psychological level of $70.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
OIL IS WAITING FOR THE STRONGEST COLLAPSE IN THE LAST 4 YEARS !!📣 Hello everyone!
I think that a difficult time is coming for oil, my goal in 2025 is $ 36-40 per barrel of Brent
That's all for today, I wish you good luck in making independent trading decisions and profit. Please analyze the information received from me, always think only with your head!
Goodbye! ✊
BRENT Crude Oil Bullish robbery PlanMy Dear Robbers / Money Makers & Newbies,
This is our master plan to Heist BRENT Crude Oil based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich.
Note: If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money.
Entry : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Swing Low
Stop Loss : Recent Swing Low using 2h timeframe
Warning : Fundamental Analysis comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update.
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target.
Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style.
BRENT (Brent Crude Oil) SELL TF W1 TP = 35.69On the W1 chart the trend started on April 2022 (linear regression channel).
There is a high probability of profit taking. Possible take profit level is 35.69
Possible variant by dates, approximately June-July 2025 (this is my personal opinion, my calculation).
Using a trailing stop is also a good idea!
Please leave your feedback, your opinion. I am very interested in it. Thank you!
Good luck!
Regards, WeBelievelnTrading
Brent Crude Oil Bounces Off Key SupportBrent Crude Oil Bounces Off Key Support
Analysing the oil market on the XBR/USD chart on 20 August, when Brent was trading around $77 per barrel, we:
→ Identified resistance around $81.60;
→ Noted that the price was approaching a key support level (shown by the yellow line), which has been in effect for several months;
→ Speculated that bears might attempt to break the August low.
This attempt by the bears can be seen in the price drop to $75.55 on 22 August.
However, the August low was not breached, as the yellow support line had an impact on the price—Brent crude oil reversed upwards (indicated by an arrow).
As shown on the XBR/USD chart, Monday's trading opened with a bullish gap, and the price is near $79 per barrel.
The price increase was supported by news of a potential escalation of conflict in the Middle East. According to Reuters:
→ On Sunday evening, Israel issued new evacuation orders for the central part of the Gaza Strip, forcing more families to flee;
→ Israel and Hezbollah exchanged heavy rocket fire;
→ Hezbollah's leader mentioned the possibility of further strikes on Israel.
From a technical analysis perspective of the XBR/USD chart today:
→ The price is forming a downward channel (shown in red) and is approaching its upper boundary, which could provide resistance;
→ Resistance could also be expected at the psychological level of $80 per barrel.
This leaves some room, albeit limited, for further growth. However, bulls will need to demonstrate their persistence when they encounter a block of resistance around the $80 level. It is possible that the RSI may be in the overbought zone at that point.
Whether Brent crude oil can break through the upper boundary of the downward channel in the coming days will largely depend on the nature of the news from the Middle East.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
UKOIL / BRENT / CRUDE OIL Bullish Heist Plan To Steal MoneyMy Dear Robbers / Traders,
This is our master plan to Heist UKOIL based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich.
Note: If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money.
Stop Loss : Recent Swing Low using 30M timeframe
Warning : Fundamental Analysis comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update.
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target.
Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style