Brent
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Good Moment to Buy 🛢️
WTI is testing a key horizontal support.
The price formed a tiny double bottom on that on an hourly time frame
and violated its neckline, giving us a nice bullish confirmation.
I expect a pullback from the underlined blue area to 0.894 / 0.900
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TradePlus-Fx|EURUSD: start of the week💬 Description: The attempt by buyers to recover on Friday did not justify itself, and the currency pair is still a sell priority. Level 1.06167 has proven itself to be a mirror level, which in turn confirms the current sales. The daily level of 1.05194 has shown itself only once so far, and its retest is expected in the very near future. An update to the current low is highly likely. Considering the economic calendar for this week, you can count on some pretty strong movements.
It is expected that the first half of the week will take place within the framework of a downward movement; by the end of the week, there is a possibility of an upward correction.
🔔 FX CALENDAR TODAY:
🇺🇸ISM Manufacturing PMI
🇺🇸Fed Chair Powell Speaks
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TradePlus-Fx|GOLD: aggressive shorts💬 Description: Aggressive shorts significantly pushed buyers beyond the level of 1900 , thus we are now trading in the short zone. However, it should be noted that the fall is fading and an upward correction can be expected in the near future.
The instrument will most likely update its minimums this week. After this, in the 1860 area, a reversal can be expected. The entry point will be available only after it has been formed; it is not recommended to enter into the “emptiness” without confirmation.
🔔 Let’s not forget about today’s data, especially before and at the beginning of the American session:
🇪🇺 ECB Economic Bulletin
🇪🇺 Consumer Confidence
🇪🇺 Consumer Inflation Expectation
🇩🇪 German CPI
🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims
🇺🇸 GDP
🇺🇸 KC Fed Manufacturing Index
🇺🇸 Fed Chair Powell Speaks
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TradePlus-Fx|USDCAD: mid-term view💬Description: As a result of yesterday's trading day, the currency pair closed above the level of 1.35019 , which is a very significant event, especially for buyers. The dollar continues to exert pressure across the board, and with the daily close above this level, this trend for USDCAD will continue. However, most likely, growth is limited and setting targets above 1.36447 would even be naive.
The medium-term prospects for this instrument are more interesting. Here, you should most likely expect sell-priority. The accumulation volume is distributed in such a way that a big player is likely to change the direction of the market, since the “market crowd” will satisfy his request and close all his longs. For the “crowd”, this is a loss.
Here we highlight two scenarios for the development of events, respectively, and two options for entering a sell on the USDCAD currency pair. Both options are shown on the chart. Of course, the entry point in the second scenario will be stronger for the seller, but one can gain a medium-term position according to the first scenario.
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Strifor || USDCHF-09/29/2023Preferred direction: BUY
Comment: You can also take a closer look at dollar purchases on the USDCHF currency pair. Here, by the way, we also worked out the last short perfectly, and fell even below our target to the level of 0.91475. Today, against the background of the morning sale of the dollar, one can take a closer look at buying it. For this pair, the best setup for this would be to update today's low.
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Strifor || UKOIL-09/29/2023Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: The bearish sentiment for oil still continues. We remind you that our last short trading idea worked 100%. Now the seller’s task is to break through the support zone around level 92. Most likely this will happen in the very near future. The more global target of this sale is, of course, the level of 90.72.
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Strifor || XAUUSD-09/29/2023Preferred direction: BUY
Comment: Gold continues to break records, turning out to be one of the weakest instruments today. However, the correction is not so far away and most likely it will happen even today. The price may start rising right from the current ones, but the strongest entry point will be after updating the current minimum. In this case, buyers have a good chance of a faster recovery towards 1880.
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Strifor || USDJPY-09/29/2023Preferred direction: Neutral
Comment: There is no need to expect shorts just yet, and most likely the best option would be to wait for the approach to level 150, from where one can gradually gain shorts. Entry into the sale of this currency pair is meant to be multi-level. In the medium term, before the fall, it will most likely exceed the level of 150. In this scenario, it is expected to gain shorts several times. In a more positive scenario, the pair will fall from the 150 level, but it should be noted that this is unlikely.
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Oil Soars to 2023 Highs: Sets New Support Levels? WTI crude futures surged by 3.5% on Wednesday, briefly reaching above $94, marking their highest settlement price of 2023. This impressive rally followed the release of EIA data indicating a larger-than-expected decrease in US crude inventories, showing a 2.17 million barrel drop in the past week.
In parallel, Brent crude futures saw a substantial increase of 2.8%, reaching $96.55 and even breaching the $97 threshold during the trading session.
Market sentiment is increasingly concerned about tightening supplies as we approach the northern hemisphere winter. Earlier in the month, major OPEC+ players, Saudi Arabia and Russia, extended supply cuts of 1.3 million barrels through the end of the year.
The question that looms is whether oil can fall below the recent lows of $88.00 per barrel without a decision to raise production? And if we don’t see the impetus for oil to keep going higher, how well do we think the recent higher highs ($92.65) and lower highs ($91.30) will fare against some potential corrective downside pressure?
USOIL ConsolidationUSOIL has formed a cup and handle on the weekly and daily charts, (feel free to quickly check) so we have since seen momentum to the upside, price has no entered a consolidation and a break out can occur, both ways still possible, however early signs of POTENTIAL breakout to the upside, watch next couple of sessions :)
Brent - H4\D1Brent crude oil
The channel is closed and consolidated, which allows us to expect a continuation of the upward movement towards the target of 96.14 (discussed in the previous analysis).
What can you expect now?
You can consider an entry from a breakdown of the level of 93.27.
In the case of a local movement, we can also expect a correction to the levels 92.17 – 91.83 and the opening of a position. When opening a position, it is best to exit the level of 90.23 if this script is not implemented.
Targets 93.84 – 95.04 – 96.14
CRUDE OIL (WTI) Detailed Technical Outlook 🛢
I received a lot of questions about WTI Crude Oil.
Analyzing a weekly time frame, we can spot that the market is currently
approaching a significant supply zone.
Even though we see a strong bullish rally since the beginning of summer,
I will anticipate a further growth only after a bullish violation of that entire area: 92.5 - 97.8.
Alternatively, analyzing a daily time frame, we can identify a recent retracement from the underlined red area and a strong daily support that was nicely respected.
At the moment, I also see a completed cup & handle pattern there.
A bearish breakout of its neckline - daily candle close below 87.5 will be your bearish confirmation.
I am monitoring oil closely and if I see a good trading setup, I will definitely share that with you.
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Strifor || XAUUSD-09/21/2023Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: The Fed results also did not leave the metal unattended and, as we expected, the price collapsed. A further fall is visible, and the nearest target is level 1912. After which sellers can give a downward impulse to the level of 1900.
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Strifor || EURUSD-09/19/2023Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: In general, the situation with the euro has not changed locally; the instrument is still under the control of sellers, but there is no clear entry point yet. As long as the price is below the level of 1.07500, sales will be a priority in any case. The market is awaiting the Fed's decision on Wednesday, and against this background, no particularly good setups for entering the currency pair have been spotted.
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Strifor || UKOIL-09/19/2023Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: The last oil trade aimed at a short-term fall (counter-trend movement) successfully closed with a profit. At the moment, a sell setup has also formed, and here most likely the rollback will be deeper. The correction potential lies at the level of 92.50.
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Strifor || XAUUSD-09/18/2023Preferred direction: BUY
Comment: For gold, the local picture has changed, and short-term purchases are now being actively considered. In the near future, an approach to the level of 1920 is expected, from where the buyer can become more active and the instrument can easily rise to the level of 1938.915.
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Strifor || USDCAD-09/18/2023Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: Another approach to the level of 1.35030 will lead to its breaking down and further updating of the lows. This level is also a mirror level. According to our scenario, the instrument will approach the level of 1.35500 before going down. You can consider sales from current ones with a small volume.
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Brent above @$100 might not be a myth !Brent have two recent bottoms 1.June 2023 ($72) and 2. August 2023 ($82.5) and has rallied more than 33% since July. The rally still looks to be continuing without till 496, $98.5 and $100 very soon. Given the strong momentum buildup and supply cuts from OPEC+ has given the oil a due rally which the cartel was expecting since June 2023.
Technically speaking levels of $126 are also on the charts as the commodity is breaking out of a Declining wedge pattern which was in formation from Jul 2022 to Jul 2023 a strong supply side pressure will be giving the commodity due advantage to rise above $100 to $125.65 as we can see.
Strifor || XAUUSD-09/15/2023Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: The situation with gold remains the same and, as we said yesterday, the instrument will most likely now be in balance. No growth is expected above 1920. For intraday trading, you can consider the range 1903-1920.
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