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Brent

Oil - A New Long Leg Down Soon BeginsThe oil markets have been something of a puzzle to everyone on account of the fact that they range sideways for long periods of time, move a little bit, decapitate one side of the market, and then range again. One thing I've been sure of is that after doing $120 post-Ukraine War, and after WTI literally hitting $0.00 ( $-40 settlements lol) this certainly was not the top. And yet the problem is, this retrace has gone on for too long, with any and every rally increasingly being melted away and melted away. So it's not bullish, either. There's major geopolitical problems right now. One for the oil long is that because Russian oil is banned from the market by the International Rules Based Order, it doesn't mean that demand increased for futures-traded oil. Like, futures oil is primarily the United States' domain, and you know the leftists in Washington are short hard on oil because they sold off the SPR. How it works is you ban Russian oil from the futures controlled markets. The catch is that Russia still sells oil and sellers always have buyers. It means Russia sells at a discount or sells in exchange for rupees and yuan instead of petrodollars. Which means that demand from smaller countries and even bigger producers moves away from futures-traded oil and into Russia's pockets, which ultimately drives the price of commodities down. Geopolitically, because of the problems between Mainland China, its current ruler Xi Jinping, and the IRBO who operates via Taiwan as a proxy, anything can happen at any time. China is the biggest wildcard in the world because it's the only 5,000 year old country, has an enormous population with exceptional natural resources, and is ruled by a Communist Party that has become exceedingly inferior and weak. What this means is that the CCP can either fall or be overthrown literally any day. You won't hear it's going to happen days before on CNN and from The Washington Post. It will happen during Beijing business hours, which means the middle of the night in Manhattan. And if Xi is smart, he'll throw the Party away himself and weaponize the 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide against Falun Dafa in order to protect himself and the country from "War With Taiwan," which really and always has meant the IRBO trying to take control of China via Taiwan Ukraine Maidan Revolution-style. Since this event is in the cards, if it unfolds, it means we'll see $200 oil and in a big hurry. Really, in a big hurry. But before this happens, it only makes sense to melt down all the early longs and liquidate some funds first. I have an open call on Taiwan Semiconductor where I believe this company, because of the Taiwan situation, is a super strong long hedge in the upcoming markets: TSM - Taiwan, Your Semiconductor Long Hedge So, here's the call. All we have to do is look at the yearly candles and we can see that last year's price action was something of a yearly wick play. And so if we take this logic and we expect that after taking the high wicks, the low wicks are next, we wind up with some clarity on a set of monthly candles that is otherwise nigh indiscernible. Unfortunately for bulls, that means we're looking at prices that start with a 3-handle. Nobody ever believes it when you make a call like this, unless it happens to unfold right away. And while these markets might manifest in a faster way in the coming months, oil is still something of a landslide down and tractor pull up kind of market maker who employs sharp shakeouts along the way. Here's the thing: The OPEC production cut news in April was a canary in the coalmine, only because the rally was clearly a stop raid and failed. The May dump afterwards was a bearish harbinger of doom. It confirms the market makers are seeking continuously lower prices on higher time frames. On monthly bars and with recent price action, the $62~ level is supposed to be "support." But this support is likely to be broken if this rally fails. I believe this rally will certainly fail and we are about to have an extremely significant optimal short entry at roughly $79. If the theory is true, see how fast $61 comes. And after $61 is broken, perhaps it will actually be a breakaway runaway. If that really happens, then the targets are 3-handles in the $34 and $36 range. You better believe it.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by LordWrymouth
15
Strifor || USDCAD-08/23/2023Preferred direction: BUY Comment: The buy scenario remains relevant. Additional pressure on the Canadian dollar has a downward trend in oil. Several important economic data are expected to be released today, both for Canada and the US. Undoubtedly, their results will affect the course. However, from the point of view of technical and volume analysis, most likely the instrument will tend to touch the resistance level 1.36545 in the very near future. Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Strifor
7
Brent uptrend exhaustionContext: Weekly – uptrend (UT), one-time-framing up Daily – uptrend Microstructure: Poor highs, poor lows Last day: value moved down Special notes: There are multiple signs of UT exhaustions: shortening of daily trend upthrust, daily volume dries up, last week value area overlaps with previous week Moreover, price is close to monthly resistance cloud. Without some stong bullish news it will be hard to get through it. Conclusion: A swing trader that is still LONG should strongly consider reducing position. At this point it is still too early to flip but risks of staying LONG outweigh potential upside. For a day trader there is still an opportunity to play LONG as daily low high (LH) is still not set. The best risk-reward opportunity for LONG can be found near last week low
CAPITALCOM:OIL_BRENT
by hermes_trisme
Brent Crude OilBrent crude oil had quite the month in July, climbing from $74 per barrel all the way up to $85. This price jump came from Russia cutting back on exports to Saudi Arabia, trimming all their oil production. Still, I don't think the price is going to burst out of its range of $72 - $88 per barrel yet. What's interesting is the strengthening of "crack spreads" Now you may be wondering what "crack spread" is. It's basically the difference between the buying cost of crude oil and the selling price of the final products, such as gasoline and diesel. There has been a significant increase in the crack spread for RBOB gasoline due to a production mismatch with the total demand and exports. Although there was a decrease in demand in July, the low inventories of gasoline at a five-year low and diesel at a multi-decade rock-bottom level have helped maintain prices for refined products. Add to this mix a hike in jet fuel demand, mostly driven by China's international travel sector. There's more. Due to the hot summer heat reducing shipping capacity along the Rhine River, European refineries might need to cut back production. This could prompt the U.S. to ramp up the export of key industrial fuels. The Rhine River in Europe, vital for transporting fuel & goods, is running into some trouble. Water levels in a part of the river (Kaub chokepoint) are the lowest they've been in 30 years. That's not good because if the water's too low, the big boats (barges) can't get through. Low water levels halted the barges last summer & may happen again without adequate rainfall. This impacts the delivery of critical goods (heating oil fuel) Barges moving heating oil fuel from Rotterdam saw their cargo loads nearly cut in half from 2000 to 1200 tons within a week. Less water and harder access mean using barges is getting more expensive. So a river that's too dry for boats to pass through properly could cause many problems with getting goods around Europe & might even make things more expensive. The inflation battle isn't over in Europe. Now for those keeping an eye on inflation. As gasoline prices rise in tandem with crude oil, it inevitably drives up the price of pretty much everything. Diesel demand reflects the overall economy's well-being but has fluctuated throughout this year. If there continues to be poor economic data from the US, China, and the EU, we could very well be starring down the barrel of a recession (pun intended ). This is why limit the current price ceiling to the high $80s for crude oil. The strength of crude has reached the upper limit of our forecast range and is still within the range of $72 to $87. If it breaches $88, it may reach $95 and have a greater impact on refined products. However, concerns about a recession will likely keep a limit on the price for now. The long-term impact of refinery shutdowns over the past 3 years and the current state of inventories is worth noting. If a recession hits and refinery runs dip, rebuilding inventories will be a severe challenge unless demand drops off a cliff. There's a catch-22; central banks are trying to cause that drop by hiking interest rates. The downside is that these higher rates can deter drilling and exploration for new oil and gas, further compounding the problem down the line. This is a vicious cycle. Destroying your economy to tackle inflation is like cutting off your arm because a paper cut is not something I would recommend. I expect Brent will trade between $72 and $88 per barrel until Q4. After that, don't be surprised if it creeps close to the $90 mark. As outlined in my blog I published on August 5th 2023
BLACKBULL:BRENT
by RomanoRnr
1
Trading Idea - #CrudeOil My trading idea for - #CrudeOil - BUY Entry: 82.60 USD Target: 90.00 USD (+8.5% profit) #CrudeOil has risen to $85 per barrel due to #Opec production cuts. Crude oil inventories are expected to decline in the second half of 2023 (source: www.energyintel.com). Means also higher demand and higher prices. In July alone, the price of oil rose by 13% - more than Saudi Arabia's 10% production cut. They have certainly made good profits and want to maintain this trend for as long as possible. I expect it to continue upwards until November. #Brent is currently trading at October contracts. I expect prices to fall as we get closer to January 2024 contracts.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Traderherz-Analytics
1
50 or 100?USOIL has rallied from 70 to 76 after RSI divergence on the daily chart. The key challenge if upward trend has to solidify is breaking and retest of the 200EMA, which is currently at 77. Failing which, a possible return to the lows. 1. In the weekly chart, pull back to the 200EMA in Jan, has been stuck in a range between 67 and 83 since then. 2. Breakout of resistance could lead prices to 100, breakdown of support could lead to the 50 zone. 3. Breakout on the upside could pile on downward pressure on Nifty and Bank Nifty due to the dependence of the Indian economy on crude. 4. Crude traded higher, the market hoping for a pause in the interest rate hikes by the Fed in its meeting next week.
TVC:USOIL
by Tradeception_
1
ukoil 8hours sell side 15% swing trade setup🔸Today let's review the 8 hour chart for brent oil . Noteworthy bounce in progress after accumulation near lows, however currently getting overbought. 🔸OPEC production cuts finally kicked it, therefore we got a decent pump in the oil market. Strong resistances overhead near 87.20 and 89.20, expecting bull trap setup after we break above the stop loss clusters. 🔸Recommended strategy for BEARS: look out for bull trap setup near 90.60 and get ready to short sell from overhead. limited upside beyond 90.60 usd, bears will target re-test of mirror s/r level at 77.80 and 75.20 usd. this is a 15% swing trade setup on sell side, good luck traders! 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
TVC:UKOILShort
by ProjectSyndicate
28