Weekly Oil Report: More Bullishness by New IEA ReportsOctober, as expected, brought oil growth after 4 months of fall. November also opened with positive sentiments. During its first week, crude oil grew by 4.71 %.
The volume and MACD are showing slight weakness in bulls. We might see oil moving a bit more slowly during the week.
With supply issues at the moment, we can expect that the price stays in 90 channel for the week.
Brent
Economic Turmoil and Political Tensions Evoking Crude OilThe candlestick pattern at the lowest low is very probable to be the pivot point for the downward consolidation of oil. October also can be closed by a green candle after 4 months of drop. The political and economic conditions are making the pivot more valid at the moment.
BCO technical analysis. (position accumulation)Will add on position at 94.000/94.2, with risk of .5%-1% from overall position.
Key local resistance level has been broken. Therefore, now it is our support.
We need to see level of 94 hold up with possible fake breakout and continuation to the moon side. ✈️🌒
Long WTI & Short Brent as price differential tightens?Oil Brent continues to trade at a premium of more than $8 per barrel to WTI oil , with the price difference between the two oil benchmarks increasing significantly and well above its historical average this year.
One of the primary drivers of the widening Brent/WTI price spread has been a significant increase in the availability of North American crude, which has created more downward price pressure on the WTI market.
The US government has injected180 million barrels of crude into the market through scheduled Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases as of October 18, 2022, to help resolve the market supply disruption created by Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and to help cut energy costs.
U.S. SPR releases are now complete, and crude oil reserves in the United States are at their lowest point since 1983, according to the latest estimates from EIA.
The possibility that the Democrats would suffer a loss in the midterm elections in two weeks might rule out the possibility of more SPR releases being made at a later stage.
In this scenario, the forces that pushed the price of WTI below that of Brent would diminish significantly. As a result, the price spread between the two oil benchmarks may return to tighter levels. Going long on WTI and short on Brent is one way to reflect the idea of closing this oil price gap.
Throughout 2021, the difference between WTI and Brent was on average about -$2/bbl and ranged from -$4.5/bbl to parity levels.
A mean reversion to the period prior to US SPR releases would suggest an increase from current prices of about $6.5/bbl. If, on the other side, the spread widens again and breaks through the -$10/bbl threshold, the strategy will be proven incorrect.
XAUUSD : IMPORTANT TA , READ the CaptionGOLD UPDATE : Still on the gold chart, I specified my opinion is still Bearish and its possible targets marked on the chart! Please note that today, as it is the first day of week, the market does not follow a particular trend, but the important levels mentioned in the current and previous analysis are valid!
Previous Analysis : By examining gold in the 4-hour time frame, you can see that the price finally managed to hit all its important upward targets (Final Result is +520 Pips ✅) , and by collecting liquidity above $1668, it faced heavy selling pressure and corrected to $1644! According to the price trend, I expect further correction, and according to the analysis of the previous week, the price may soon move towards the liquidity pool of SELL STOPS below the price of $1615, if this happens after collecting liquidity below this level. We will probably face a temporary price pump, the range of this liquidity pool is from $1615 to $1606! The new Bullish Order Block is in the range of $1617.5 to $1627.5!
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⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ...
👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading
📅 10.24.2022
⚠️(DYOR)
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Uncertainty by Mixed Signals Hit Traders AgainOn the weekly chart of WTI, uncertainty is clear in the last candle. Buyers and sellers were both indecisive.
On the daily chart, the MACD indicator seems to be crossing and changing the phase. Oil might open lower on Monday but it is possible to see volatilities throughout the week.
The recession is nearly the strongest bearish factor holding oil prices down. The dollar index is increasing and it brings more fear to the markets.
IMPORTANT TA of $GOLD : READ THE CAPTIONWell, as you can see, today the price penetrated more to its Bullish Order Block and managed to grow by 230 pips from $1617 to $1640! If the price continues to grow, the important ranges for supply are $1645 and $1656 respectively! Another important possibility is that the price may soon (maybe next week) move towards the liquidity pool of SELL STOPS below the price of $1615, If this happens, after collecting liquidity below this level, we will probably face a temporary price pump, the range of this liquidity pool is from $1615 to $1606!
✅ Result so far : +260 Pips ✅
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⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ...
👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading
📅 10.21.2022
⚠️(DYOR)
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XAUUSD (GOLD) Multi Time Frame analysisWell, as you can see, the price managed to increase up to about $1680 yesterday, exactly from the range of $1660 that was mentioned, that is, nearly 200 pips of growth! Again, from the same range of $1680, the price faced selling pressure and fell again to $1660! The price again reacted positively to this level and is currently trading with 50 pips of growth in the range of 1665! Now we have to see if this level of support and demand zone can cause the price to grow again or not! one of the important supply zones is in the range of $1676 to $1680!
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⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ...
👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading
📅 09.20.2022
⚠️(DYOR)
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CRUDE OIL (WTI) 2 Important Breakouts 🛢
Last week was very bullish for WTI.
The price even managed to break and close above a solid horizontal supply zone and a major falling trend line on a daily.
The underlined blue area on the chart is a confluence zone based on broken horizontal and vertical structures.
From that, a bullish move will be expected to 97.0.
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