Brent
Brent idea! 💡💬
Hi traders.
I use the supply-demand method for my analysis.
Check the lower timeframes for confirmation and entry. (5m,1m)
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What do you think about this setup?
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Everything I share is how I trade personally. 😉
Enter the trade by checking yourself.☑️
Do not put more than 3% of your capital at risk! ❌
CRUDE OIL (WTI) The Market Finally Dropped! What is Next? 🛢
Important update for WTI Crude Oil.
Potential scenarios and trading plan explained.
Trading recommendations given.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Minor gains to attract fresh selling in WTI?WTI - Intraday - We look to Sell at 100.67 (stop at 103.61)
The primary trend remains bearish. The continuation lower in prices through support has been impressive with strong momentum and shows no signs of slowing. We look to sell rallies. There is scope for mild buying at the open but gains should be limited. A Fibonacci confluence area is located at 100.00.
Our profit targets will be 94.04 and 91.00
Resistance: 101.00 / 112.00 / 120.00
Support : 94.00 / 85.00 / 64.00
Risk Disclaimer
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OIL H4 Potential drop | 7th July 2022On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud , we have a bearish bias that price will drop to our 1st support at 94.96 where the horizontal swing low support is from our 1st resistance at 101.18 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement . Alternatively, price may break 1st resistance and head for 2nd resistance at 102.89 where the horizontal pullback resistance and 50% Fibonacci retracement is.
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⭐️BRENT: medium/long term view➡️ The oil market is dominated by panic about the fact that supposedly the price of raw materials expects a significant fall. The G7 countries are trying to limit the transportation of Russian oil if it is sold at a price above the limit. The head of the European Council, Charles Michel, said that the EU countries would be ready to introduce such a measure after they were convinced that it would negatively affect Russia, and not themselves. And it is very likely that this will be the case. In addition, one should not forget about India and China, which were not "specially" asked about such a proposal for Russian oil .
China and India may thwart G7 plans to impose price caps on Russian oil . The idea of the "Big Seven" may have a negative impact on global energy markets.
On July 3, the New Jersey edition, citing American expert Patrick De Haan, reported that the G7 idea to limit oil prices from Russia seems illogical. According to the expert, the G7 statement can only aggravate the situation and push oil prices up.
Fundamentally, the conclusion is that the current actions taken on the political map by the major powers are more likely to drive up commodity prices. However, it is not worth expecting an oil price of $350 as suggested by JPMorgan Chase analysts. This forecast is inadequate (according to the author). The level of $140 is considered to be an adequate forecast for oil , as the same Goldman Sachs analysts stated.
Technically, the price is in the area of strong support $97.63-$103.33 . The first target for growth is at $103 , from there buyers will attempt to return to the descending channel , after which growth to $110, $115 should be expected. Medium and long-term targets are located at the levels of $120 and $130 .
The negative point will be fixing the price below the $97.63-$103.33 area, however, in this case, given the current military-political situation, fundamental analysis can reverse the trend in one second.
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👍 Thanks for your comments and likes 👍
👇🔥 LINKS TO PREVIOUS IDEAS AND FORECASTS 🔥👇
What will happen to wti?hello guys!
as you may know, yesterday oil decreased a lot and for a commodity like oil, average weekly movement is 80 pip (weekly atr=80) but this week, wti move 140 pip so far, so I predict that this 2 remaining days it will to correct last move and when touch that gray zone and trendline at same time, moving downward until the demand zone.
thank you for your attention.
good luck
The best hedge - is growthINVESTMENT CONTEXT
In the wake of robust demand despite mounting recession fears, Saudi Aramco hiked its crude oil prices for Asia's market to near record on July 5. In August Arab Light crude price will sit at USD 9.30/boe above the regional benchmark
For the first time since May 11, WTI crude oil fell below USD 100/boe. According to Citigroup, oil price could plunge to USD 65boe by the end of this year, while JP Morgan forecasts oil at “stratospheric” USD 380/boe
On July 5, the ambassadors of 30 NATO States signed Accession Protocols for Finland and Sweden, effectively kicking-off the ratification process, which usually takes one month
Inflation in the U.K. hit a fresh 40-year high, standing at 9.1% in June compared with 9.0% in May. The political stability of the country has come under pressure after Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak and Health Secretary Sajid Javid quit the Cabinet, citing divergences with Premier Boris Johnson in the matter of economic policy-making
Prices of corn, soybean, wheat, and several other agricultural commodities fell by more than 20% in recent weeks, largely reverting to pre-pandemic levels as financial players unmounted bearish speculative positions
Italy declared state of emergency for Northern regions facing the worst draught in 70 years, threatening 30% of Italian agriculture output.
PROFONE'S TAKE
Following the considerations about record high electricity prices in Europe, ProfOne's eyes are now set on nuclear plants, the development of which matches well with Europe's ambitious plan of energy transition and reduction of the reliance on Russian gas. Yet, as anticipated by ProfZero, a full-scale energy rotation will take time, and relevant capital investments, to happen. The nuclear plant of Olkiluoto in Finland entered construction phase in 2005 while that of Flamanville in France in 2007; both projects haven't been delivered yet, yet costs already exceeded original budgets by up to 3 times. With that in mind, and recalling that costs of renewable technologies based on solar and wind energy are declining, ProfOne understands why nuclear projects have become less attractive for investors. Nuclear requires the elaboration of new financing models and scaling strategies. Some near-term relief may be achieved through expansion of new small reactors, which are faster and easier to build; yet the vast majority of these assets have not fully come online yet.
PROFZERO'S TAKE
Robin Brooks, chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, aptly summarized what does it concretely mean to change economic paradigm: "Germany's growth model has been to import cheap energy from Russia, use that to assemble manufactured goods and export those goods to the rest of the world". Now that Russian natural gas deliveries are sputtering, Germany has posted its first monthly trade deficit since 1991, and the country has entered phase 2 of its 3-step energy emergency plan. ProfZero prefers to resist the urge of calling for capitulation; after all the country can re-activate coal-fired while it speeds up the construction of much-needed LNG regasification assets. Yet zooming out, the theme of energy independence is what actually is making the whole difference between the U.S. and the EU - and shall be a likely recurring theme for the next growth paradigm of the entire Western world
Seeing crude oil plummeting 10% in one single trading session can only mean that markets are bracing for a recession. Fundamentals don't lie: according to EIA, the world in 2022 will produce more crude oil than it really needs, with forecasted supply at 100.1mboe/d, and demand at 99.6mboe/d. ProfZero points out that one of the virtues of commodity markets lies in price-formation mechanisms strictly tied to basic supply-demand interplay. Sadly, the disruptions in European natural gas are preventing the same from happening; yet should frictions be erased, it is all too rational to expect also TTF to briskly retrace
Global recession - short commodities remains the default play Europe now gets the full attention – we’ve seen Germany’s trade surplus completely eroded, turning negative and into the first deficit since 1991 – clearly impacted by the reduction of Russian gas imports. Germany has been heavily reliant on Russian gas imports and the flow-on effect is we could be looking at gas rationing through the European winter and a potential bailout of Germany’s largest gas importer (Uniper).
A recession in Europe looks all but certain this year, and this makes the ECB’s life incredibly challenging – they have a deteriorating growth outlook, very high and persistent inflation and worries about peripheral bond yields blowing up. EU Nat gas (NG) prices are not something they can control, and we’ve seen prices rally 100% in the past 16 days, so this is a brutal juggling act for Europe – Europe is in the eye of a storm right now, especially with China maintaining a strict line with its Covid zero policy. News that airline SAS has filed for bankruptcy won't help matters either.
Europe may command the closest attention, but this is a global problem. In a world of rising interest rates and central banks hellbent on putting the inflation genie back in the bottle, we’ve seen clear evidence of demand destruction – commodities have been the default expression of this thematic and right now there is just no visibility on growth or what changes the trend – even though the market lives in the future, it feels like this gets worse before it turns around.
The result is no one wants EURs, or GBPs, and commodity currencies (AUD, NZD and NOK) find few friends either – the trend really is one’s friend and everyone asks when EURUSD hits parity.
So the USD reigns supreme, not just from a relative growth perspective but from an attractiveness as an investment destination. Right now, aside from the USD, only the JPY looks like a compelling long in G10 FX. What’s clear is that the USD strength is feeding back again into negative commodity price action – commodities face a war on two fronts – demand destruction and king USD and this is causing some intense bear trends in commodities, and it wouldn’t be a stretch to think the systematic trend-following crowd would already be running hefty short positions in copper, silver, gold, US gasoline and AG’s like wheat and soybeans.
Until we see signs of a turn in the USD then rallies in all these markets will likely be jumped on by the short-sellers. That even includes XAUUSD, which is trading at YTD lows and sold consistently into the 8-day EMA – Until these dynamics change then it feels like gold is destined for $1750. If the USD remains bid, perhaps look at gold exposures in AUD or EUR (XAUAUD or XAUEUR) and there may be scope for a topside range breakout. However, even then, I will want to wait for a move to take place and let the market reveal itself.
The elephant in the room, aside from EU NG is crude – Our SpotCrude price briefly traded below $100 and SpotBrent into 103.53, although have been supported below the figure. Headlines that one US bank is projecting that Brent crude could head to $65/bbl in a recession may have impacted, but it’s the demand side of the supply/demand equation which is being examined and we heard concerns of falling demand from Vitol Group (one of the world’s largest oil traders) on Sunday. The world could use a weaker crude price, although from a risk perspective it's better if it’s driven by additional supply and not falling demand – the issue with supply is that OPEC is struggling to meet current quotas as it is so additional supply seems a tall order.
Having broken the April trend support, the rising probability is SpotCrude looks to test the March/April lows of $93.47/93.98 – selling rallies into 104.00.
Commodities are the default expression of recession risk – crude and gold get the flow from clients but for those who like momentum and trend this is the space to pay attention to.
USOIL 6th JULY 2022USOIL fell below USD 100 as recession fears grew, fueling concerns that the economic slowdown would cut demand for petroleum products.
In the macro trend, oil tends to be bearish. By the end of this year if the economy is heading into a recession. In a recession scenario with rising unemployment, bankruptcy of households and firms, commodities will chase a downward cost curve as costs deflate and margins turn negative to encourage supply curbs.
However, the decline in oil prices will actually benefit manufacturing companies. They will take cheap prices for supplies, after 2 quarters of prices soaring.
USOIL D1
Sale on 118Earlier I pointed to the forthcoming falling from 125 to 110, it happened. Now there is a correction to this falling, but falling will be continued as the trend was developed. I expect continuation of falling from 118 (0.618 according to Fibonacci) to level 100 and further (if level is overcome) to 88.
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the market.
Oil Futures Settle Lower On Demand WorriesDespite concerns about a potential recession, oil prices were still around $114 a barrel today as supply concerns outweighed concerns about a potential decline in demand. In the latest developments, workers in Norway went on strike, which is expected to cut the country's oil production by around 130,000 barrels a day.
Despite the global economic recovery, oil prices are still up more than 50% this year as the conflict in Ukraine and the lack of supply from other producers such as Russia have raised concerns about the supply of oil. OPEC+ has also been struggling to boost its production due to various factors. In addition, the Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary policy has also triggered a sell-off in commodities.
Investors are also closely monitoring the situation in China, where the country is still experiencing sporadic outbreaks of the virus.
The heat may be offINVESTMENT CONTEXT
Inflation in Eurozone climbed from 8.1% in May to 8.6% in June, growing in 17 of 19 countries, with the notable exception of Germany (slide from 8.7% to 8.2%) and the Netherlands (from 10.2% to 9.9%). ECB officially scrapped its EUR 20bn/months bond-buying program on July 1
S&P 500 energy sub-index fell 17% in June, ranking as the worst-performing within the index
While U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Chancellor Rishi Sunak announced “the single biggest tax cut in a decade”, estimated in of GBP 6bn (USD 7.4bn), France slashed its forecast for GDP growth in 2022 from 4% to 2.5%
After lifting objections, Turkey said that it could still block Finland and Sweden’s accession to Nato in case if Nordic countries failed to meet the demand of Kurdish separatists extradition. Inflation in the country is still just a hair below 80%, as the Central Bank refuses to raise interest rates, leaving analysts to presume capital controls may be introduced to stop the bleeding
On July 3, Russia announced its full control of Luhansk region in Eastern Ukraine, after seizing the city of Lycychansk, the last Ukrainian holdout in the area
Digital asset brokerage Voyager Digital suspended trading, deposits, loyalty rewards and withdrawals on July 1, after sending a default notice to hedge fund Three Arrows Capital (3AC)
U.S. markets closed on July 4 for Independence Day; European markets regularly open
PROFONE'S TAKE
Global equity markets recorded their worst half of a year since 1970, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq collapsing 21% and 30%, respectively. Deep risk-off sentiment still grips most areas of the market, fueled by growing inflation (8.6% in June after 8.1% in May in Eurozone; U.S. print expected in the coming days) and next steps of tightening monetary policy (in July, both the Fed and the ECB are expected to hike rates by 75 bps and 25-50 bps, respectively). The correction in energy and industrial metals prices was caused by mounting recession fears, while also a potentially better than forecasted harvest season in some parts of globe (U.S., Europe, Australia) could ease the pressure on consumer prices. Still, Profs don’t see the emergence of any major catalyst that could trigger a sustained reversal: for instance, on the macro front, there are no clear-cut signs of a ceasefire happening in Ukraine, thus leaving the threat of supply chain disruptions looming.
PROFZERO'S TAKE
As early as May 6, ProfZero placed global credit markets on particular watch, as much of the global pressures could be expected not only to raise the costs of business financing; but in more dire terms, to trigger defaults on weakest borrowers. On May 20, Sri Lanka defaulted for the first time in its history, as the economy was crushed by unsustainable fuel and food prices; at the time of writing, also the State of Laos faces fuel shortages and growing default risk. ProfZero is not particularly concerned by Russia's technical default, which has been clearly caused by the effect of sanctions; in contrast, what catches its attention is the state of financial health of several European countries, and chiefly Italy, who relied excessively on both low interest rates and the ECB role of buyer of last resort. Analysts have already dubbed ECB President Christine Lagarde messages on fragmentation as "vague" - and nothing irritates traders more than ambiguity, save, perhaps, short sellers, who indeed are piling up bear positions (Ray Dalio's Bridgewater has amassed some USD 10.5bn sell-side positions). Europe is the epicenter of this bear market - and ProfZero unfortunately sees scant chances for a quick turnaround
ProfZero is also unfazed by the purported fall in commodity prices. While certainly the prices of cotton, wheat, copper and iron ore are are down even up to more than 30%, European natural gas is trading at EUR 155/MWh for 1-month deliveries - compared to EUR 22.11/MWh on July 4, 2021. Inflation is certainly receding from certain corners of the economy - but the European energy tangle remains far from being undone
Brent & Natural Gas PricesBrent Crude is around $111.36, as investors grew concerned about a potential global recession and the tight supply of crude. Data from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting OPEC Countries showed that its output fell by about 100,000 barrels per day in June.
Libya's oil exports have dropped to between 365 and 409 thousand barrels per day, which is about 865 thousand barrels below the level that was normal. Also, a planned strike in Norway will reduce the country's oil production by about 130 thousand barrels per day. Despite the recent rise in oil prices, the market is still expected to remain weak in the coming months due to the global economy and the lack of supply.
Natural gas prices in Europe started July at around 150, which is a level not seen since early March. The rising prices are expected to continue due to the tight supply of gas. A strike by workers in Norway this week is also expected to reduce the country's gas output by around 292,000 barrels per day. This could threaten the European Union's efforts to increase its storage capacity.
Due to the reduction in Russian gas flows through the Nord Stream pipeline, Germany, which is the EU's largest economy, has enacted the second phase of its emergency gas plan. It involves increasing the monitoring of the market and the restart of coal-fired power plants.
Brent Outlook (4th July 2022)OPEC+ has announced the decision to increase oil production level to 648kbpd, reducing supply constraints targetted towards alleviating the soaring prices in the energy market.
Brent unlikely to develop a clear directional bias, with price likely to be supported by the 108 support and the 110 & 114 resistance area.
Long Oil - Target 120+Downside is limited. Inflation is real. Fibo 61.8 can be achieved easily (the green line) . Good luck.
#BRENTCRUDEOIL Still making higher lows within triangleIts no surprise anymore that OIL and energy stocks have been one of the only places to find some alpha this year. Even with oil taking a bit of a beating lately, looking at the technicals we are still in a very healthy shape for the time being with Brent Crude making higher lows within this triangle formation and well above its ascending 200 day moving averages. Until this breaks down, you have to give energy the benefit of the doubt to run higher this year..
CRUDE OIL (WTI) Bearish Trend Continuation🛢
Hey traders,
Update for WTI Crude Oil.
As you remember, we were bearish biased, and we were patiently waiting for a confirmation to short.
The price broke a support line of a bearish flag pattern on a 4H.
I believe that the market will keep falling now.
Goals:
102.88
100.0
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
USOIL 30th JUNE 2022The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers are expected to confirm as a mere formality their decision to expand oil production by 650,000 barrels per day in July and August. The OPEC+ group of producers including Russia, began two days of meetings on Wednesday, though sources said there was little prospect of agreement to pump more oil.
The net drop in crude oil inventories was flattered by SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) releases, while the gasoline stock jump is because U.S. refineries are running at over 95% capacity
Crude oil analysis points to bullish turnaround Crude oil experienced a significant drop in price over the past two weeks. This week, however, it appears the energy commodity is bouncing back to the bullish side.
The fall in the price of oil since May was triggered by the fear of a recession, in the US in particular, and numerous central banks’ moving against inflation with rate hikes, leading to slowing economic growth.
This, however, has been mitigated by the fact that the global economy is now facing a lack of supply on the energy front. As global demand closes in on pre-pandemic levels there are indications of further support in demand for fuel.
Supply concerns have cropped up as a result of Saudi Arabia and the UAE running at near oil production capacity and the political unrest occurring in both Ecuador and Libya. Given that these countries are some of the few that could fill the void left by the Russian sanctions, any hint of disruption may play a role in supporting or surging oil prices.
On the other hand, US President Joe Biden last week called on Congress to suspend the Federal gasoline tax for 3 months. President Biden, in calling for gas tax holiday, further stated he wants merchants to pass on the entire reduction to consumers and the industry to refine more crude oil into gasoline to increase supply.
On the technical side of Crude oil, after the conclusion of the OPEC meeting, we might see an increase in volatility in oil prices.
On the daily chart, we can see a clear uptrend as the price bounces around its trend channel. Price made a rebound at around 104.0 on the lower trendline creating a bullish structure. As the price heads towards a minor resistance of 114.70, a break above this area could potentially send price towards 120.20 and possibly retest 124.9 before bouncing back around the upper channel for a possible price correction respecting the current trend indicator.
One could also notice a bullish hidden divergence on the RSI as it creates a lower low while the candle stick chart creates a higher low on the daily time frame signaling for a potential turn to the upside. Any shift in fundamental factors, however, might negate this bullish indicator.
