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Brent

Bulls roaring back! Is it really the bottom? Not so soon...INVESTMENT CONTEXT Russia's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergey Lavrov, said that "liberating" the Donbas region of Ukraine was still Russia's "unconditional" priority Germany's economy minister, Robert Habeck, warned the EU resolve on sanctions to Russia was starting to "crumble" Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is still expected to maintain his veto on Sweden and Finland joining NATO Stores and offices reopened in Beijing on Sunday, after officials announced COVID-19 outbreaks were under control. Similarly in Shanghai authorities announced loosening testing requirements to enter public places as new cases hit their lowest since March LUNA 2.0 launch is off to a rough start, with investors rocking the asset down 70% on the very day of the airdrop PROFZERO'S TAKE ProfZero welcomes the renewed risk-on attitude that seems to be permeating markets. With the S&P 500 finally breaking a 7-week red streak, and Nasdaq regaining 12k support, investors are trying to shrug off the worst of this year's meltdown. Yet, can we call the worst already to be behind? ProfZero thinks - not today. There are yet too many pockets of pent-up volatility to be resolved before buys may be considered organic - inflation is still being driven by energy and soft commodities, Fed and ECB have not completed setting up monetary policy to adjust interest rates and and the consequences of the war in Ukraine are inflicting pain to several developing economies in the Middle East and North Africa, potentially leading to unrests. The progressive reopening of China is definitely behind of the rebound in risk assets - yet ProfZero peacefully reminds that China announced literally last week that it will struggle to score positive growth in Q2. Markets are always 1 if not 2 quarters ahead - positive surprises would be all too welcome even ahead of that Crumbling European's resolve on sanctions to Russia is expected to erupt on May 30, as EU leaders are set to meet and discuss how to implement new restrictions on Russian energy still flowing to the continent. With a full-blown embargo now off the table, as it would cripple the energy security of the landlocked economies of Hungary, Slovakia and Czech Republic, talks are ongoing to limit seaborne imports while not touching volumes via pipeline. ProfZero has long indicated energy as the true table for negotiations to happen - with fading unity on crude oil, no better cohesion can be expected by the EU on gas down the road Russia apparently avoided default again on May 27 by delivering EUR 100mln interest payments on two Eurobonds - ProfZero sees this simmering narrative as a silent hope of diplomatic channels being open After failing to trail the market on May 27's rally, blockchain assets came roaring on May 30, on the back of broader investor enthusiasm. BTC reclaiming 30k mark and altcoins springing back from earlier lows are even more noteworthy as investors whiplashed LUNA 2.0 project relaunch - selection effects may now be once again at work after correlations peaked. ProfZero's are glimmering at the sight of markets - doing their job
CME:BTC1!
by ProfZero
ECB playing it cool; hope it won't have to drop it like it's hotINVESTMENT CONTEXT According to the minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting held in early May, policymakers remarked the need to keep raising the Fed's interest rate, noting that "a restrictive stance of policy may well become appropriate depending on the evolving economic outlook and the risks to the outlook" Russia heavily cut interest rates for the second time since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, bringing it from 14% to 11% as annual inflation cooled from 17.8% in April to 17.5% as of May Thematic investment management giant Fidelity sees increased recession risk as volatility is set to persist After the collapse of LUNA, Terra project has voted to preserve the community and launch of a new blockchain, LUNA 2.0 PROFZERO'S TAKE While markets ambiguously read the minutes from FOMC meeting in May, ProfZero sees a rather coherent stance by policymakers, who won't refrain from exacerbating the already tightening monetary policy in order to tamp down inflation. What stood as a surprise to ProfZero was instead Ursula von der Leyen tone at Davos, where the EU Commission President said the EU won't be rushed into withdrawing monetary stimulus, and that supply-fueled inflation should not cause investor "panic". ProfZero concurs inflation in EU is largely imported; yet it fails to agree with Madame von der Leyen - the EU is caught between ailing growth, sticky inflation (flat around 7.5%) and threatened by massive debt loads (Italy above all). A tangle monetary policy alone may hardly undo all on its own Crude oil bull run is persisting deep into Q2, thus likely translating into yet another bumper quarter for energy majors. With Brent crude firmly above USD 100/boe and European natural gas (TTF) futures above 80 points after years below 20, ProfZero expects more good news for investors in the segment, especially in the form of greater dividend stability and buyback plans. Yet, as now several energy stocks trade at all-time highs (Cheniere, LNG; Chevron, CVX; Equinor, EQNR), ProfZero cautions against potential steep reversals should catalysts form to put a lid on prices - the ramp up in U.S. shale gas production should already alarm industry players, while on the opposite side it would play as a highly welcomed agent of deflation for economies at large When one of the world's most respected macroeconomists shares his views, ProfZero stands, and listens. Olivier Blanchard warned about swelling inflation as early as February 2021; now the former MIT Professor and Chief Economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) sees a "0.9 probability" the economy will return to a low-interest rates scenario, overcoming the tendency for markets to "focus on the present and extrapolate it forever". ProfZero has long been advocating in favor of keeping "cool heads" and focusing on underlying value fundamentals. Professor Blanchard would be proud to know ProfZero is really puzzled about the dynamics of semiconductor industry. One of the key commodities of the future has been in chronic undersupply for over a year. Yet, sector equities fail to impress, despite the apparent surge in pricing power. NVIDIA's (NVDA) beat on top and bottom line (USD 8.29bn revenue vs. 8.10 forecast; USD 1.36 EPS vs. 1.29) sent the stock sliding 7% in the after market, plunging it down 50% since the November 2021 peak. ProfZero well remembers how beaten energy stocks were during the pandemic, before roaring back in 2022. Is the same narrative brewing the semiconductor space?
CME:BTC1!
by ProfZero
Brent: GlueyBrent is currently glued to the resistance at $114.74, where it has finished wave b in blue. However, we expect it to let go of this mark soon to fall into the turquoise zone between $101.67 and $99.83. There, it should complete wave a in turquoise and move back above $104.67 afterwards to finish wave b in turquoise. After that is settled, Brent should gradually fall below the support lines at $104.67, $97.56 and $93.57. There is a 40% chance, though, that Brent could climb above $114.74 and make a detour through the green zone between $117.78 and $133.52 first before moving downwards.
TVC:UKOIL
by MarketIntel
2
⭐️BRENT: forecast for May 9-May 13➡️ Oil usually rises and falls with the stock market because the prices of both markets are like a proxy for economic activity. But in recent years, these relationships have collapsed. Oil growth may continue to outperform. Stock markets fell and oil prices held. It is more likely that oil will continue to outperform equities on a cross-asset basis. If you are in a place where economic activity is strong now but could also slow down in the coming years, stock and credit markets could start to weaken even as energy prices hold. Oil prices could rise even more if the conflict in Ukraine escalates, a scenario that is likely to push prices down in other asset classes. But if geopolitical risk subsides, there could be a recovery in growth, greater economic confidence and more demand for energy, meaning that oil may not fall much compared to future expectations. This should support the oil. Technically, oil is not expected to fall below 110$ - 111$ this week. Longs can be entered from current prices. The target for the deal is supposed to be at the level of 115$. ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖ 👍 Thanks for your comments and likes 👍 👇🔥 LINKS TO PREVIOUS IDEAS AND FORECASTS 🔥👇
TVC:UKOILLong
by TradePlus-Fx
7
USOIL Bars Pattern IdeaIf a deleveraging like 1999 is happening, perhaps we will see 1999-2008 in oil play out in a similar fashion? Not saying it will or won't happen, but it currently looks like oil is setting up momentum for a future breakout. I copied the bars pattern from 1999 to 2008. Maybe it's too bullish? Or maybe not bullish enough. I would venture to say that it seems so much worse than 1999, the prediction isn't bullish enough, but I'm not sure. What do you think? Good luck and don't forget to hedge your bets :)
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TVC:USOILLong
by fringe_chartist
53