Possible Bullish Scenario on Crude Oil. First, let's start with context. The price has been moving sideways for the last 60 days on a key level where we have observed reversals in the past, as well as continuations after clear consolidations.
The Primary Bullish target from where we are right now is 145.00.
The Primary Bearish target is 80.00.
How can we know which of them will be the right one? The answer is "We don't know" That's why I always get ready for 2 possible scenarios.
This is an idea of how I'm thinking about long positions on Crude Oil . As you can see, the main element here is the Risk to Reward Ratio, which is 3. That means that if I'm stopped two times, and I'm right one time, I will still make a profit. ALL my strategy goes around that concept.
However, on the bearish side, this would be the setup I'm interested in:
REMEMBER: We do not control the outcomes of the market. However, we do control planning our setups in advance, managing risk, and looking for setups with a great risk to reward ratio.
What are your thoughts on Crude Oil? Let me know in the comments.
Brent
120-125, further decreaseYesterday breakdown of a triangle occurred up, but not down. And it is necessary to recognize it. It means that the price will continue to be adjusted up to level 120-125. Then the movement should be continued down since it is only correction to the previous falling. Falling was an impulse.
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the market.
Oil waiting for embargoPrice of oil bargains within a big triangle waiting for the decision on the ban on the Russian oil. However, I do not change the idea on reduction of price. I expect an exit from a triangle with the first purpose 88 down. I will remind that earlier the price beat off the upper bound of a treguolnik as I also specified in the ideas.
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the market.
Time to punch a triangleThe price some time was in a triangle. Now the formation is complete and it is time to choose the direction of the further movement. I expect, as before, the movement with the first purpose about 88 down. If to make Fibonacci's stretching, then it is possible to see the first purpose about 80-81.
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the market.
⭐️BRENT: forecast for May 2-May 6➡️ The volatility of the oil market remains high, which is due to the aggravation of the energy crisis in Europe against the backdrop of the first precedents for stopping the supply of Russian hydrocarbons to some EU countries.
The Wall Street Journal news agency reported yesterday that German officials withdrew their objections to a total embargo on Russian energy supplies, asking only for time to find alternative suppliers. Recall that the position of Germany was the main obstacle to the introduction of such an embargo in the EU. The United States and Great Britain have already refused to buy Russian oil. The change in the rhetoric of German representatives was a reaction to the suspension of natural gas exports to Poland and Bulgaria, since these countries refused to pay for deliveries in rubles. This raised concerns that the Russian Federation could stop deliveries to other European countries. Meanwhile, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on Wednesday that Russia's oil production could fall by 17% this year due to sanctions. Market participants seriously admit that a very likely decision on a complete embargo on the supply of Russian energy resources may provoke a shock scenario, as a result of which the shortage of oil and petroleum products on the world market will increase to 3 million barrels per day.
This news background completely offset the prevailing effect on prices, which was previously caused by concerns about the prospects for global economic growth due to anti-COVID restrictions in China. Investors are concerned about the spread of COVID-19 in Beijing, which could force the Chinese government to impose a general lockdown on the city. The prolonged lockdown in Shanghai, China's largest city and commercial hub, has already weighed on the oil market, undermining demand expectations.
Considering all of the above, it is most likely more profitable to hold oil longs. Technical analysis just supports this rhetoric. The chart shows two long entry points. The conservative target for this week is the 110$ level, it makes sense to also consider the 115$ level.
🔥 BRENT Forecast Results 🔥
☑️BRENT: small update 👉 +590 points ✅:
⭐️BRENT: forecast for Apr 25-Apr 29 👉 +531 points ✅:
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Brent Oil - To Slide Before Heading to $150?It is near impossible to following all the developments in the geopolitics and try to forecast the price of Oil but what does technical analysis suggest?
Elliott Waves break down:
The sharp fall in March is clearly a motive wave which is likely based on a double zig-zag
The correction that has been forming since then is clearly a triangle but this type is very tricky and more often than not confused a lot of traders
Looking at the symmetry of the overall correction it is more likely that exit from the tringle is to be triggered downwards
In the case of this scenario the next wave will also be in form of zigzags and retracing from 0.618 to 0.786 of wave X hence the target of $84 to $89
As mentioned earlier, if the triangles are very condensed and of high amplitude it is more difficult to predict their development.
So let's see what happens next week and update the count as needed.
What are your thoughts about this scenario?
Please share your thoughts in the comments and like this idea if you would like to see more stocks analysed using Elliott Waves.
Thanks
BRENT CRUDE OIL BULLISH PREDICTIONSBoth WTI and BRENT Crude Oil benchmarks rose in price on Tuesday (26th of April) after China announced that it will support its economy in case of a lockdown and the fears of diminishing demand have been eased.
If the rally continues it will most likely test its previous high at 109.5, in the opposite scenario, the price might test its support at 99.3
MACD and RSI are showing a slow down of the bullish trend from the last few hours, but with eased lack of demand fears the price might return its momentum.
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Brent: Parking Assistant 🚗Beep beep, beepbeepbeep, beebeepbeepbeepbeeeeeep
Brent seems to have afforded a parking assistant, judging by the neat way in which it has entered our white zone between $106.12 and $99.47 to finish wave c in blue and wave (B) in white. We expect it to turn around soon and to head for the next parking lot above $114.74, the green zone between $117.78 and $133.52. After Brent has completed wave B in green and wave (C) in white there, it should turn again and home in on the support at $97.56.
⭐️BRENT: forecast for Apr 25-Apr 29➡️ Last week, Brent crude made a major peak at 141$ . It is expected that oil will continue to move in the range of 104.10$ - 114.83$ .
The breakdown of the level of 104.10$ and the closing of the price above this level is the main condition for going long. The long target lies at the level of 109.53$ , further growth may continue to 114.83$ .
🔥 BRENT Forecast Results 🔥
☑️BRENT: small update 👉 +590 points ✅:
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CRUDOIL OMG OIL in many cases is used to maximize the profits of countries that are
producers or have important stocks to have easy income at the expense of an energy inflation and therefore that destroys the real economy.
If scenario '' a) '' were confirmed, we would be faced with a historic oil record with unprecedented damage to the real economy. $ 175 / $ 200
Please tell me that's not true ...
However, we remain hopeful in option '' b '' a controlled return to acceptable prices despite an energy crisis
$ 85 / $ 80
We will follow the developments.
For more informacion contact us on private
LPI.sa
Brent Oil - Seller's Time till Apr. 22Brent Oil was completely moving based on the previous analysis that I've shared here (See this and this ). As long as CURRENCYCOM:OIL_BRENT 's in under $108.7, the sellers have the momentum to decrease the price toward $103 support. In the case of any break-up for $108.7 resistance, the analysis would be failed and we should wait for a pullback to the broken area. However, for now, sellers can have the momentum till April 22nd, based on the Fibonacci time ratios of the previous sell-offs.
USOIL: HAVE YOU TAKEN THE PROFITS?When i posted about shorting UsOil i had seen a similar patterns on pre 2008 crisis, when Oil went from 50$ to 150$ in 18 months.
After crash in 2020, Oil has copied a similar pattern, obviously the Covid changed the rules on table, but Oil went from near 0$ to 100$, absurd.
If we calculate the Roi based from Moving average to maximum price, we could se a small difference on gain, but i think we could assume are similar for the momentum...that's why i called for a short position.
Now it is better stay away from Oil until the price comeback to normale level, and plan a new trades...even if it takes many months.
Brent: Watch Your Head! 🤕Brent has been climbing and climbing and climbing and has actually maxed out the space until $114.74. There, it has finished wave (A) in white, butting its head at the resistance line, and subsequently turned around to move downwards. We expect Brent to drop into the green zone between $106.12 and $99.47 to recover and to complete wave (B) in white. Then, it should start to rise again, breaking through the resistance at $114.74 this time. After finishing wave (C) in white as well as wave B in green, ideally in the lower third of the green zone between $117.78 and $133.52, Brent should turn again, heading in the direction of $97.56.
$UKOIL - Conflicts, COVID, Sanctions, Triangle patternHi guys! 👋🏻
🔔 Conflicts, military operations, sanctions, COVID seem to be the headlines of 2022
🔔 The bursts of conflicts globally looks so intense that they might be the main drivers of oil prices.
🔔 I really don't think that EU will embargo Russian oil but if they really do, BRENT will hop to $160 easy, which according to the chart here is very possible.
🔔 For now, I'm expecting a slight correction here with a potential on a jump to $123.
✊🏻 Good luck with your trades! ✊🏻
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☑️BRENT: on a rollback down➡️ "Black gold" rose to 111$ ahead of the long weekend.
At the moment, oil is in the green zone, which seems to make sense amid expectations of tough conditions in the global market amid supply disruptions to Russia.
Trading was rather thin in global oil markets on Thursday amid a slowdown in related news flow and as traders wind down ahead of the long weekend in major markets in North America and Europe.
At the moment, however, there is a possibility that the instrument will fall to ~105$ early next week. The idea of a short is simple, it will be associated with a pullback after such an increase and in the near future the price will again go up, as expected.
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☑️BRENT: small update➡️ A small update to Friday's oil short idea in a new idea format. The priority of shorts remains, the fundamental reasons remain the same, but a larger perspective, of course, should most likely be expected to go long.
Technically, at the moment, the actual short. One can open short from the current levels ( ~111.50$ ). The target of the fall will be the level ~107.17 .
👇 Previous idea for BRENT 👇
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