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Brent

Micro analysis on Crude Oil - to spike once morePreviously, in what was hoped to be a blow off top, there was a need for crude oil prices to close the gap soonest. Well, it did... thing is, it closed the gap, only to reopen with gusto. In a Gap and Close, we know it is a reversal. In a Gap and Run, we also know that the gap may or, more likely, not to be tested, and prices continue the trend strongly. In the crude oil scenario, it closed the gap (rectangular black box in chart) , only to reopen it with bullish looking candlesticks. The 4H MACD has not yet crossover bullishly, but suggest potential to. Crude oil is now more likely to spike up to the last high, and even exceed it, some time within the rest of this week. In correlation, yesterday we saw the S&P500 and NASDAQ post its worst day since Oct 2020, but it is suspected to have more downside momentum, given another reason to trigger a crude oil price spike. Now... IF, and when, prices should retrace, it should fall back to close that gap, and close it more permanently. By then, it should be below the 4H 55EMA. Heads up!
NYMEX:CL1!
by Auguraltrader
War, Inflation, Oil & Natural GasSince the early 2000s commodities have had a major boom, a major bust and another boom which began in April 2020. The current boom isn't caused by the world going into the right direction and economies are booming, but rather we have major issues in the production of commodities. Globalization led to a massive economic boom post WW2, a trend that slowly started reversing since 2008, accelerated a bit in 2020 due to Covid and now has massively accelerated due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This boom to a large extend relied on the financialization of the economy and the outsourcing of production on emerging markets, most of which don't align with western values and tend towards authoritarianism. This essentially lead to huge underinvestment in the production of commodities in the 'west' and heavy dependence on the 'east'. As the world is de-globalizing inflation has become a problem for everyone, but mostly for the developed world which now seems to be at odds with the developing world. Unfortunately, the Russia-Ukraine conflict is the continuation, or I should say the real 'breakout' into a new world order. A reset was going to come, tensions were going to rise and things would eventually get at this stage. It's in the nature of human beings to repeat the same mistakes over and over again, and as technology is progressing these mistakes tend to be more destructive and costly. Personally, I see no way how this situation gets resolved peaceful and doesn't result in the world being heavily divided in two camps, one US centric and one China centric. The next 10 years are probably going to be very turbulent, with all sorts of problems arising and the world going through some very dark times, yet I also think that after that period we going to come out of it stronger and potentially have another massive boom. It's currently all a matter of surviving over the next 10 years monetarily, physically and mentally... because we are about to go through a really rough period where inflation gets totally out of control, especially in nations that don't produce enough of their own food and energy. There are multiple reasons as to why inflation is going to ravage the world economy, but the key ones will be higher energy prices, broken supply chains (dysfunctional trade), freeze or reduction in production of certain goods in countries like Ukraine or Russia. What is going to exacerbate the problem but at this point is a necessary evil, is the insane amount of money printing in order to cover all sorts of deficits and provide people with support. In my opinion and I've talked about extensively before, is that raising interest rates in this environment will do nothing to stop inflation. What the public and private sector really needs to do is relax regulations and provide all sorts of help to producers, so that each country can get as much autonomy as it can get. Doing whatever it takes in order to produce as much energy and food, as it really is a matter of national security. A few weeks ago, it looked like inflation was going to come down. There wasn't much liquidity in the markets and all sorts of issues started showing up. Like I had mentioned in my previous ideas, inflation was due to several issues that had nothing to do with QE and ZIR, but due to issues on the supply side. It started looking like the Fed wouldn't need to or wouldn't even be able to raise rates more than 1.5-2%. However, then the conflict broke out and everything changed completely. Now the inflation caused by non-monetary issues has gotten completely out of hand, with no end in sight. Even though the issue is mainly on the supply side, it is a very tough one to fix and it is one that needs a lot of time to fix... while in the meantime intervention by money printing, wars and so on, will most likely make things a lot worse. So instead of the markets finding some sort of balance as low supply slowly crashes demand until production ramps up, we could see things get completely out of hand as the monetary systems breaks down along with production and distribution of goods, energy etc. In this analysis I won't get into any commodities other than Oil and Natural let's get into the charts and take everything step by step. Starting with oil, it is very clear that the market is extremely overbought, but at the same time it looks like it has also had a major breakout. Based on all metrics it is the most overbought it has ever been, yet at the same time its uptrend is very clean and strong. Since its December low the price of oil has doubled, and since the low on Feb 25th after the war broke out, it went up 40%. Currently it is just 20% away from making a new ATH, so I wouldn't be surprised if it goes 2x above its previous ATH in the next few months. Essentially we are seeing a reverse capitulation of what happened in April 2020 when oil went to -40$/barrel on the front contract. That ended the oil bear market as it forced a lot of producers to shut their oil wells and flushed out speculators. So high could oil go? Is there a limit? Although there is no limit to the upside due to the potential devaluation of fiat currencies, the truth is that higher prices are the cure for higher prices. Higher prices incentivize producers to start producing a lot more, and will probably make all the environmental concerns go out of the window, hence allowing all sorts of 'bad' for the environment energy sources to be used by everyone. What is actually even more likely is that such high oil prices will make the global economy collapse, which will in turn lead into a collapse in demand for oil. But again... How high can its price get? Based on the previous two largest Oil rallies, as well as based on technical analysis & fractals, the absolute top could be at 440-550$/barrel if things get extremely bad (ceiling), while 250-300$ is more likely to be either the top or a local top for quite some time. So far we have spoken about the upside, but there is also significant potential for downside here before the bull trend continues. I don't think it is very likely, yet it is possible. Volatility on energy could get wild based on how fast the output is increased, while demand drops. The current trend can't and won't last forever, as we can't leave so many gaps behind without one day retesting them. Definitely wouldn't rule out a 2008 style crash on oil at any moment, however for now 75$ seems to be the floor, the same way 60$ was the floor in Q3-Q4 2021. Getting back to 40$ is also possible, but this one would definitely requite a 2008 style crash. Therefore on the one hand the potential upside is about 85-335%, while the downside is 35-65%. Now it's time to talk about Natural Gas, as this is another really major component of the inflation equation, especially in Europe. Russia is the largest supplier of Natural Gas to Europe, which has been paying more and more for NatGas to Russia, and the situation is getting worse by the day. Someone could say Russia is holding Europe as a hostage, because Europe really really needs that gas as many people use it for heating, cooking and energy production. As its price was low for so long, people believed it would be cheap forever and started using it more and more. Unfortunately now it isn't easy to go back to using other sources of energy and Europe is really far way from only using clean/green forms of energy. Unless it moves quickly back to nuclear energy (re-activating reactors), coal and even getting natural gas from the US or somewhere else if possible, Europe is going to having blackouts for a long time. Not only will there be blackouts, but it will be pretty much impossible for anything to function properly. The situation in Europe is totally different from that of the US, whose NatGas prices are about 15 times lower than the ones in Europe. That's because the US is producing its own and doesn't rely on other countries for it. It is also producing substantial amounts of oil, while many countries around it (i.e. Canada) also produce a lot of oil. The high dependence on Russia is putting a lot of pressure on Europe, which might not be able to grow at all for many years to come. What is interesting is that this situation is making Europe come together under a common threat, but it also somewhat benefits the US as it gets closer to Europe. Although I don't know how long would it take for this to work and if it is actually possible, but if the US starts exporting LNG to Europe, this could push the price of NatGas in the US up, and that in Europe down. This could eventually become a great trade (long NatGas in the US and short in Europe), but it might take quite some time. Like with Oil, TTF could go up another 2-5x before it rolls over, while NG barely looks like it could reach its previous ATHs. The higher oil goes and the higher the costs in Europe, the more likely it is that NG will go higher. It has formed a decent base and it looks bullish, just nowhere near as strong as the other two.
TVC:USOILLong
by BitcoinMacro
UKOIL WK1: $250 USD going parabolic super cycle for oil(NEW)Why get subbed to me on Tradingview? -TOP author on TradingView -2000+ ideas published -15+ years experience in markets -Professional chart break downs -Supply/Demand Zones -TD9 counts / combo review -Key S/R levels -No junk on my charts -Frequent updates -Covering FX/crypto/US stocks -before/after analysis -24/7 uptime so constant updates 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! UKOIL WK1: $250 USD going parabolic super cycle for oil(NEW)(SL/TP) IMPORTANT NOTE: speculative setup. do your own due dill. use STOP LOSS. don't overleverage. 🔸 Summary and potential trade setup ::: UKOIL WK1 chart review ::: chart is LOG SCALE ::: setup still valid expecting ::: OIL going to hit 250 USD in 2022 ::: US is going to impose strict sanctions ::: 5 mln bbl / day production going offline ::: will trigger a massive price spike in oil ::: BULLS should accumulate dips in this market ::: even if Iran deal is signed it's only 500K/day bbl ::: so will only cover 10% of 5 mln bbl/day ::: BULLISH SUPER CYCLE in commodities ::: will be triggered by geopolitics ::: have to get used to high commodity prices ::: BUY ANY DIPS / final TP is 250 USD in 2022 ::: 100% upside from current market price ::: WAIT for dips and reload (BULLS) ::: recommend to BUY/HOLD ::: recommended strategy: BUY/HOLD ::: bullish super cycle in oil market ::: SWING trade setup do not expect ::: fast/miracle overnights gains here ::: good luck traders 🔸 Supply/Demand Zones ::: 110USD fresh demand zone ::: 250USD fresh supply zone 🔸 Other noteworthy technicals/fundies ::: TD9 /Combo update: N/A ::: Sentiment short-term: BULLS / MORE GAINS ::: Sentiment outlook mid-term: BULLS / SUPER CYCLE RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Crypto, Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
TVC:UKOILLong
by ProjectSyndicate
9
180$ for barrel?! What will happen with Oil Price during WarOnly peace will save us - as one proverb says. But is it really the case with the oil price? The war in Ukraine and the turmoil over Russian oil are shaking the markets, so we have to look at the situation from several perspectives. the nearest option resistance is at USD 120 we have a lot of Virgin VPOCs below the current price, which theoretically should act as a ballast inhibiting further increases in the background the risk of the imposition of further sanctions banning the import of Russian oil in individual countries ignorance of OPEC at the last meeting - political and supply turmoil around oil and the session ... lasts a record 13 minutes without mentioning the oil supply limitation by one of the key OPEC producers! The situation becomes even more interesting if we see where the funds are located on the Options from the Expiry Date in mid-April 2022 - the resistance (i.e. investors place money on CALL options) with a record high turnover is ... the level of USD 180 per barrel! At the time of writing the analysis, we have as many as 4241 options there. Even at the next expiration of options in mid-March (little time until Expiry), we can see the capital shifting towards $ 140, where levels of $ 100-110 were staked at the beginning of the war in Ukraine. The options market often brings information well in advance. Get an edge in trading today with access to daily analyzed levels and option data from multiple instruments. The inquisitive will find a link to the page where the results of trading with the use of tools and option data are presented, as well as information about the mechanics of the market available for free. And what are your expectations for the coming weeks ad. oil prices? I'd love to hear from you!
NYMEX:CL1!
by skyline-trader
OIL Multi Year Bull Market?Is OIL in a Multiyear Bull Market. Oil demand is growing and supply is not. There has been significant under investment into shale oil. OPES supplies are being exhausted and offshore production growth is flat to dwindling. ESG mandates are putting pressure on the fossil fuel industry as a whole but ESG are only affecting one thing. And that is supply. The mandates have not addressed demand which is increasing. There is already the start of an energy crisis hitting Europe with Gas and Coal price soaring oil gas coal and uranium Stocks are the place to be over the next few years imo.
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by gillman_hugh
BRENT CRUDE OIL EXPECTED RALLYUK Brent opened with a bullish gap after the weekend in Monday (28.02.2022), with prices rising due to the intensified situation between Russia and Ukraine and the fuel distribution insecurity in Europe. But the price met resistance at 103.26 USD and reverted back, closing the initial gap and meeting support at 97.18 USD. Both MACD indicator and RSI indicator are confirming the bullish trend, which indicates that the instrument might try again to break the resistance at 103.26 USD, and if it does that, it will probably attack it's high at 105.74 USD. In the opposite scenario, the instrument might try to test again the resistance at 97.18 USD. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
TVC:UKOILLong
by legacyFXofficial