Get started

Brent

Oil Reaches $100 Per BarrelTrade Safe - Trade Well Regards, Michael Harding 😎 Chief Technical Strategist @ LEFTURN Inc. RISK DISCLAIMER Information and opinions contained with this post are for educational purposes and do not constitute trading recommendations. Trading Forex on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to invest in Forex you should consider your knowledge, investment objectives, and your risk appetite. Only trade/invest with funds you can afford to lose
TVC:USOILShort
by Michael_Harding
3
Brent Crude - $100 in sightBrent crude came within a whisker of $100 today for the first time since September 2014 before profit-taking kicked in. Will it eventually capture this level? There's been a number of times in recent months when $100 oil has been thrown around like it's a case of when rather than if it will hit that massive psychological level. The shortfall of supply from OPEC+ which continues to fail to hit its targets by ever-widening margins, combined with stronger than expected demand has created a very tight market and with no end in sight in the near term, the price has been naturally rising. November offered temporary reprieve, initially from the US-led coordinated SPR release as various countries sought to address the imbalance and lower prices, and then from the emergence of omicron which had a far greater impact. Once the threat of omicron was deemed to not be too great, the price started climbing again and it hasn't really stopped. The crisis now in Ukraine has just added to the rally, with traders now pricing in additional risk premium in the event of Russian supplies being hit. This brings us back to the initial question, will it surpass $100? There doesn't appear to be any lack of momentum, despite the price rallying 50% from the December lows. That was starting to emerge but the escalation at the Ukrainian border has seen that reverse. In terms of how far it can go if it does go above $100, that depends on what happens in Ukraine, not to mention if a new nuclear deal is signed between the US and Iran that could quickly see 1.3 million barrels per day back in the market. The next test could come around $105, where it saw plenty of activity almost a decade ago. The key will be the events on the border but in the meantime, momentum indicators could give us an idea of whether the break of $100 will accelerate the rally or not.
OANDA:BCOUSD
by OANDA
Hydrocarbons Benefit From Rising Geopolitical RiskCrude oil came close to a triple-digit price last week for the first time since 2014. Natural gas prices have soared in Europe and Asia, and US prices rose to the highest level since 2008 when the February NYMEX futures contract spiked to over $7.30 per MMBtu in late January. The chicken and egg economic dilemma may be, which came first, inflation or rising energy prices? Energy prices continue to trend higher Russian incursions into Ukraine could cause price spikes US energy policy inhibits new production Rising energy prices are a root cause of inflationary pressures Expect lots of volatility- Watch crude oil at the end of March The tidal wave of central bank liquidity and tsunami of government stimulus that followed the worldwide COVID-19 pandemic ignited an inflationary fuse. As prices began to rise, the shift in US energy policy to address climate change poured gasoline on the inflationary fire. In January, the consumer price index rose to 7.5%, and core CPI, excluding food and energy, was 6.0% higher, the highest level in over four decades. While the core number omits energy prices, energy is an input cost for goods and services measured in core CPI. The producer price index rose by 9.7% in January. The bottom line is that if rising energy prices did not ignite inflation, it is fanning the flames. Meanwhile, based on a 7.5% inflation rate, the US Fed would need to increase the short-term Fed Funds rate by twenty-five basis points thirty times for real rates to be at zero percent. While the Fed may choose to increase the short-term rate by 50 basis points at the March FOMC meeting, the rise would be nowhere near the level that would push real interest rates out of negative territory. While inflation pushes all prices higher, energy markets face two other issues that could prove explosive. OPEC and Russia now control crude oil pricing, and Russia’s expansionary actions threaten to make petroleum a political and economic tool. Energy prices continue to trend higher Last week, crude oil prices rose to new multi-year highs. The monthly chart shows nearby NYMEX crude oil futures rose to $95.82 per barrel before pulling back to the $91.50 level at the end of last week. Crude oil continues to trend higher towards a triple-digit price. The current technical target stands at the June 2014 $107.73 per barrel high. Nearby Brent futures on the Intercontinental Exchange, the pricing benchmark for two-thirds of the world’s petroleum production and consumption, reached $96.78 per barrel last week. Brent’s technical target stands at the June 2014 $115.71 high. In February 2021, NYMEX and Brent crude futures traded to respective highs of $63.81 and $67.70 per barrel. At the $4.45 per MMBtu level on February 18, nearby NYMEX natural gas futures were well above the February 2021 $3.316 peak. Meanwhile, thermal coal for delivery in Rotterdam at $162.35 was over double the February 2021 $68.65 per ton high. The bottom line is fossil fuel prices have exploded, and the trends remain higher in early 2022. Russian incursions into Ukraine could cause price spikes The conflict between Russia and the US and its NATO partners is that the Russians consider Ukraine Western Russia, while the US and Europe believe the country is part of a free Eastern Europe. Russia has amassed over 150,000 troops along the Russian-Ukrainian border, and the US administration warns that an attack and incursion is “imminent.” While negotiations and discussions continued at the end of last week, President Putin is not backing down. The US and Europe have threatened severe sanctions, but Russia and China recently agreed on mutual support, making sanctions toothless. Since 2016, Russia has become an influential nonmember of the international oil cartel. OPEC is not OPEC+ with the plus being the cooperation with Moscow. President Putin’s clever inroads into the cartel increased Russia’s sphere of influence in the Middle East together with alliances with the Syrian and Iranian governments. OPEC does not make a move without Russian agreement these days, and a conflict that leads to sanctions could cause oil embargos aside from the logistical challenges created by war. Fighting in Ukraine could cause crude oil’s price to spike higher. Crude oil futures tend to take the stairs higher and an elevator lower. However, the current geopolitical environment increases the odds of a sudden rally. The oil market has not experienced an event-driven price explosion since the evening in August 1990 when Saddam Hussein marched into Kuwait and nearby futures doubled in a matter of hours. US energy policy inhibits new production In early 2021, US energy policy experienced an overnight transformation. On his first day in office, President Biden canceled the Keystone XL pipeline that transported petroleum from the oil sands in Alberta, Canada, to Steele City, Nebraska, and beyond to the NYMEX delivery point in Cushing, Oklahoma. In May 2021, the administration banned oil and gas drilling and fracking on federal lands in Alaska. Increasing regulations that address climate change favors alternative and renewable energy sources and inhibits fossil fuel production and consumption. Aside from handing pricing power back to OPEC+, the administration’s policy shift created entry barriers for new companies in the traditional energy markets. Addressing climate change is a multi-decade initiative as the US and world continue to depend on fossil fuels for power. However, the administration appears to have put the policy horse before the cart as hydrocarbon output is not keeping pace with demand. According to the US Energy Information Administration, daily production at 11.6 million barrels per day is 11.5% below the March 2020 high. Moreover, oil and oil product stockpiles remain below the five-year average. Crude oil inventories were down 11%, gasoline was 3% lower, and distillate stocks were 19% below the average level over the past five years. While the US policies weigh on output, the demand is booming. Rising energy prices are a root cause of inflationary pressures After decades of striving for energy independence from the Middle East, the US energy policy handed the pricing power back to the cartel in 2021. As oil prices rose, the administration asked OPEC+ to increase output twice in 2021, but the cartel refused. In November 2021, the President released fifty million barrels from the US strategic petroleum reserve. The release amounted to three days of consumption, and the oil price continued to rally after reaching a higher low in early December. While the pandemic-inspired monetary and fiscal policies and supply chain bottlenecks created inflationary pressures, the US energy policy has exacerbated the economic condition leading to an increasing cost of all goods and services. OPEC+ suffered as US shale production increased over the past years. In 2022, it is payback time for the cartel as they would rather sell one barrel at $100 than two at $50. Meanwhile, in his standoff with the US and Europe, crude oil availability and prices are a negotiating tool and potential economic weapon for the Russian President. Expect lots of volatility- Watch crude oil at the end of March The higher the crude oil price rises, the greater the odds of a correction. The last downdraft in the crude oil futures market began in late October when the nearby NYMEX futures contract fell from $85.41 to $62.43 or 26.9% in six weeks. The $62.43 level was a marginally higher low than the August 2021 $61.74 bottom, keeping the trend of higher lows and higher highs intact. At the end of 2021, crude oil posted its seventh consecutive quarterly gain. A quarterly chart illustrates a close above the December 31, 2021, $75.45 per barrel on the nearby NYMEX crude oil futures contract will mark the eighth consecutive quarterly gain. As of the end of last week, the price was substantially above that level. Bull markets rarely move in straight lines, and the trajectory of crude oil over the past weeks has increased the odds of a correction and elevator ride lower. However, the geopolitical landscape, US energy policy, OPEC+’s desire for payback, and rising inflation continue to create an almost perfect bullish storm for the energy commodity that powers the world. While many market participants are watching the $100 level, the potential for a challenge of the 2008 all-time high at over $147 per barrel in WTI and Brent futures could be on the horizon in the current environment. Crude oil’s rise may result from monetary and fiscal policies and a political agenda to address climate change, but it has become a driving inflationary force. A more effective tool to stomp on inflation may be increasing US fossil fuel output to push prices lower instead of relying on monetary policy via interest rate hikes. --- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Andy_Hecht
2
#UKOIL Has Room To Go Higher #USOIL #Brent $WTI Traders, UKOIL (Brent) can still go higher. It has reached an FCP zone so any long positions for swing trade are not good ideally. However there is a gap available at 98 and then we have round number 100. This can also push upwards of this FCP zone to reach the final FCP zone of 105. Then it will be a good candidate for a short. Right now, trade in steps only. Horizontal lines are possible targets and arrows show the direction. Trade what you see and ignore any hypes. Stay objective. Rules: 1. Never trade too much 2. Never trade without a confirmation 3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too ✅ If you found this idea useful, hit the like button, subscribe and share it in other trading forums. ✅ Follow me for future ideas, trade set ups and the updates of this analysis ✅ Don't hesitate to share your ideas, comments, opinions and questions. Take care and trade well -Vik ____________________________________________________ 📌 DISCLAIMER The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only. Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions. ____________________________________________________
TVC:UKOIL
by vikinsa
1
Crude Oil (WTI): Update & What to Look At 🛢️ Hey traders, WTI Oil is still coiling around a major rising trend line that we spotted on a weekly. Though we expect a pullback from that, from a current perspective, it is too early to short. The confirmation that you should look for to open a sell position is a bearish breakout of a support line of a rising wedge pattern. Only then a bearish move to 88.6 / 85.0 levels will be expected. In case of a bullish breakout of a trend line on a weekly the setup will be invalid. ❤️Please, support this idea with like and comment!❤️
TVC:USOILShort
by VasilyTrader
19
TS ❕ BRENT: longs in priorityThe correction for oil is likely to continue, but longs still remain a priority. At the moment, it is assumed that the price will not rise above 96 -98. BUY scenario: Long from level 94 is relevant now. Current prices, which are just above the 94 level, are also suitable for buying. Target level 96.10. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Remember, there is no place for luck in trading - only strategy! Thanks for the likes and comments.
TVC:UKOILLong
by UnknownUnicorn15614419
3
Russian de-escalation sharply moving marketsSeveral equities have reacted sharply to the suggestion that Russia is de-escalating its presence on the Russia/Ukraine border. As reported by Reuters, Russia has begun to move an undisclosed number of its troops away from the Ukrainian border after completing mock defence exercises. Even so, tensions have not entirely dissipated. NATO, US, and UK officials remain cautious of the situation, with Boris Johnson noting that "the intelligence that we're seeing today is still not encouraging". The markets have been more eager to embrace talk of de-escalation. European Equities spent Tuesday rebounding sharply. The STOXX Europe 600, which is comprised of 600 stocks across 17 European exchanges, broke a three-day losing streak and rose 1.43%. On an individual bourse level, the Italian stock market Index, the IT40, led the way back into positive territory, up 2.17% over the trading day. The German (DAX30) and French (CAC40) indices followed closely, each climbing ~1.9%, and the UK's FTSE100 climbed up 0.98%. US stocks reacted in a similar manner when they opened a few hours after Europe. The US market has recently closed where the NASDAQ rose 2.24%, the S&P500 rose 1.36%, and the Dow Jones rose 1.06%. Commodities also make significant moves on news that Russia is de-escalating. Naturally, commodities would be significantly affected by a war between Russia and Ukraine and NATO affiliated nations that have reacted the sharpest. WTI and Brent have pulled back a shocking 3.7% and 3.4%, respectively. On Monday, Brent oil prices were pushing their way up to USD 100 per barrel after crossing USD 95 per barrel. Before the turnaround in the oil price, talk of USD 110 per barrel was beginning to filter into market predictions. Russia and Ukraine are two of the largest exporters of Wheat. As such, supply concerns for the soft commodity have eased slightly, and with it, the price has pulled back from its two week high. Wheat is now trading down 2.63% to USD 7.8 per bushel. Low supplies could temper more downside for Wheat in Canada and the US. Other major exports of the region are trading down on the easing tensions. Corn, Iron Ore, and Soybean are all trading down 2.86%, 1.37%, and 1.27%, respectively.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by BlackBull_Markets
Oil Topping for nowPrice has flipped many times in the past at this price. Price is extended to the upside. Momentum has been diverging for the last 8 months. OPEC+ has reaffirmed their stance to increase production. Saudi Arabia and other countries production hasn't even been turned back on yet so they can increase it even more if need be. Global demand and consumer demand is actually falling, this can be seen by China's economy contracting so prevalently. It's still winter and a correction is warranted. Maybe by May or so, we go back up again and could go to crazy heights if things don't get better with inflation.
TVC:UKOILShort
by MonetaryRebel
UKOIL Short IdeaOil Markets are currently trading at the highest levels since 2014 after just reaching the 96 area. There has been a small retracement from this high to the current region (93.88). The RSI indicator on the higher time frames show very overbought levels which show that price could fall from this area down to the previous resistance zone. The target of this short idea is the previous resistance level at 90.88, this is a 3% gain for 1% of risk (stop-loss at 94.89).
TVC:UKOILShort
by Orion-Markets
An attractive ideaThis analysis is purely a personal analysis Hints 1. This analysis is checked in the weekly time frame, so each of the waves has the necessary time to form between a few weeks to several months, and a total of one to two years. 2. For convenience, it refuses to go into details so that the trader can easily understand it. 3. The study was performed in the form of Elliott and canalization using Macd indicator Analysis Description: Oil is on a long-term upward trajectory annually, so after the proper growth of oil prices and the failure of the downtrend, higher goals are pursued, but what is clear is that each impulse step needs a active step to rest. So it can be said that in the next few weeks to a few months, the oil route is expected to be relatively upward to reach its $ 114 target to complete a complete cycle. And then it enters a correction cycle that can take up to two years, so expecting to see $ 35- $ 45 as a midline target is not unexpected. Note: Proper insight into considering all possible scenarios then 1. Short-term visions Long-term to medium-term are well defined We have a temporary uptrend and targets of $ 114 and $ 105 for it Then for several months the rest of the movement shifted and, the price suffered And then move to the channel midline for several months At the end of this analysis is only a personal analysis and there is no certainty in doing or not doing it ......
TVC:UKOILShort
by cafe_chart_
TS ❕ BRENT: time for correction"Black Gold" showed excellent results and the price closed above $94. However, soon the instrument will need a downward correction, at least. SELL scenario: The short entry point is expected to be found at the resistance line of the uptrend channel. You can enter both on a rebound from this line or after a false breakout, which will be a more conservative option. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Remember, there is no place for luck in trading - only strategy! Thanks for the likes and comments.
TVC:UKOILShort
by UnknownUnicorn15614419
3